Commodity Market Updates with Kunal Shah - Head of Research (Commodity)

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:01][Music] [Music] Good afternoon everyone. This is Kunal Shah Head of Commodity Research from Nirmal Bang and we do this weekly webinar we try to navigate you about the outlook on commodities what are the possible trends and what you should be doing.

[00:00:24]So we told you on Friday that if there is no peace deal between the US and Iran, oil prices will start rising again.

[00:00:35]So in my opinion, if you look at the scenario that has emerged, it seems that no positive resolution is coming from the US and Iran's P stock. And that is why again today if you look Brent crude oil is up $4. WTI is up 4 taka. So the Indian rupee is under some pressure. So the same narrative is playing out. So I would still like to say that in this war, there is no peace deal between Iran and the US regarding hormones and there is no peace deal.

[00:01:14]So in my opinion it is going to have a disastrous impact on the global economy because oil inventories have already fallen very low in G7 nations.

[00:01:26]Operating on very low inventory. The inventory of petrol, diesel, heating oil which is aviation fuel is gradually falling.

[00:01:36]Many refineries are operating under capacity.

[00:01:39]Refining output is declining.

[00:01:42]So I feel that this scenario is moving towards a very dangerous scenario day by day. So in such a situation, no one will buy gold and silver aggressively.

[00:01:54]Because if there is a liquidity crisis, I do not think there will be any aggressive buying in gold and silver.

[00:02:00]Ok. So my view is very simple.

[00:02:04]I think both gold and silver may show some pressure. The fundamentals are good but I feel that liquidity will become a bit tight in the market.

[00:02:17]So from that region there may be some pressure on both gold and silver. There is no major recession and there is no major upside either. So, according to me, unless a trend is clear, you should not waste too much energy on it.

[00:02:34]I told you I'm getting into metal.

[00:02:36]Metal seems relatively better to me. So in my opinion, both copper and aluminium will be my favorite picks among metals.

[00:02:47]Chile production in A Copper has gone down by 15 taka in the month of April. So what I was telling you is that due to the shortage of sulphuric acid, you are seeing the impact and many copper miners are seen shutting down their operations.

[00:03:05]Because it is not viable for them to produce. Not because of the cost. They don't have the raw material only. So copper is seen trading towards 1400 and 1450.

[00:03:18]Adopt buy dips strategy in copper. Aluminum is also a bean.

[00:03:24]I see it heading towards ₹400. And as far as farmer contract is concerned, which is running at Rs 389, there is a possibility of it going up to Rs 405.

[00:03:34]My focus is on the upside in copper and aluminium.

[00:03:36]A Crude oil is also looking up I think strict stop loss around 8600 in crude. One should not trade in crude without stop loss. Keep a stop loss of 8480 and on the upside you can go up to 8800, our view is that once crude goes around 80800, so overall the situation is not good, do not trade, avoid trading for now, Jigar Bhai, I have a webinar challenge, I will do it for 20 minutes, so in my opinion, right now you should trade above the current levels, even if you do not trade from the current levels, there is nothing to lose. Gold and silver also seem range bound to me. It does not seem that any big move will happen at the moment. So will silver reach Rs 3.5 lakh in June? No, I don't think there's much chance.

[00:04:34]Mohammad Kunal Sir wishing you good health. What is your advice for physical gold investors?

[00:04:41]Should we hold a sale? You can hold on. First of all thank you very much for wishing me good health. Same to you and your family from us. So in my opinion [sound of clearing throat] whatever physical thing you have should not be sold. He should be held. The long term outlook still looks good. Vikrant Patangi Copper is upside down. Copper seems a little high to me. Sir please give some positional view.

[00:05:06]One Year View in Gold Silver. One year view should be taken as bad. If it comes to Rs 4400 then you should buy gold. Silver should be bought around 7273 72, then gold silver should be bought in bad, what is the condition of Trump, nothing, he keeps tweeting something or the other every day [sound of deep breathing] Crude is buy, hold 9200, there is a chance of going up, copper can come till 8900, yes Hemant Khatri ji is asking that copper should come down in liquidation. Yes it may come.

[00:05:43]If US markets crash sharply or any such bond yields rise sharply, copper will also move down but the fundamentals of copper are not bearish.

[00:05:55]Bond yields are rising in Japan and are negative. For global risk assets, gold and silver are also trading like risk assets these days. So it is a little sentimentally negative. Copper Very Bullish I see copper heading towards ₹100.

[00:06:16]Gold is on sale from 162000 and you should cover your short position around $150000 $148000.

[00:06:29]Silver 7071 Good Levels to Go Long. That's it.

[00:06:38]Thank you everyone. See you on Wednesday. Till then have a great weekend.

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