Severe Weather Potential July 21 2026 Weather Briefing

[00:00:00]Good afternoon from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh. This is Fred here for another severe weather potential briefing. Uh this time we're looking for a severe threat on Tuesday, July 21st.

[00:00:11]So, let's get into the details. So, here's the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing an enhanced risk, which is a level three out of five shaded in orange across much of our region. Again, that's the you know, level three out of five. Again, those happen about once or twice a year for our region, especially on a on a outlook that's issued the day prior. So, again, uh the signal strength is is getting strong for this event happening. Uh of course, the primary threat will be down trees and power lines with the uh line of storms that come through. We are also looking at a weak uh tornado potential as well.

[00:00:45]And also heavy rain. So, this Weather Prediction Center has issued a level two out of four slight risk for excessive rainfall for the southern half of our area.

[00:00:54]Uh Indiana to Pittsburgh to Zanesville and points south. And we are looking at the potential for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance, especially if an area gets hit more than once with storms because the atmosphere is becoming very humid tomorrow. We'll get an influx of moisture from the southwest. So, the storms will be very uh brief heavy rain heavy rain producers very efficient as well. So, that's a concern of us is So, here's a uh forecast simulation.

[00:01:21]Now, one of the things I always will kind of articulate is that hey, this isn't going to be the exact way how it happens. We do have uncertainties with the forecast for tomorrow. This is not a slam dunk.

[00:01:32]And I'll talk about that as we move along here. This is the forecast radar image as of uh 6:00 a.m. 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning. So, we have a decaying thunderstorm complex across Ohio. And we'll be watching that as that dives southeast. Will that become the main show during the day or that weaken and fizzle out and allow the main show in terms of the more robust line of storms to move across eastern Ohio, Western PA, and Northern West Virginia during the afternoon hours. That's still yet to be determined.

[00:02:03]And as we forecast and move along to say 1:00 p.m.

[00:02:09]2:00 p.m. on Tuesday, we're looking at showers and storms developing downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

[00:02:17]And you can see that line of storms across Western Virginia and Kentucky that could be a result of the morning thunderstorm complex that was weakening overnight. And maybe that regenerates and that kind of cuts off all the moisture to our region, which makes us kind of in this lull and we don't see severe weather tomorrow.

[00:02:33]And or what happens is this line doesn't develop at all, and then our area sees showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon evening. Uh so, here's a forecast as of 7:00 p.m. still showing a line of showers and storms broken across Northwest PA, North Central Pennsylvania, and some pop-up cells across Northern West Virginia. Again, you know, this could be the main line that moves through that produces the down trees and power lines.

[00:02:57]And again, there's still a lot to be resolved with this. There's nothing written in stone, so again, one of the most important things is is stay attuned to our weather briefings. As the conditions change, we'll update that.

[00:03:07]We'll let you know.

[00:03:09]Check out weather.gov /Pittsburgh to make sure that you have the latest forecast from the National Weather Service in in our office here.

[00:03:17]And I want to kind of mention these takeaways before we wrap up. Again, the timing's noon to 8:00. It may shift a little bit later. Again, there's still a lot of uncertainty with the how this evolution is going to play out in terms of storms.

[00:03:29]Down trees and wires are the primary threat. That hasn't changed. Weak tornadoes are possible. Again, very similar to what we saw on Saturday. We had a lot of down trees and power line reports. We also had a couple weak tornadoes. And then flash flooding is for possible for areas south of Interstate 70 in Northern West Virginia.

[00:03:45]And then also parts of Northwestern Pennsylvania, Clarion, Jefferson, Venango, where we had the heavy rain on Saturday, where flash flood guidance is only an inch and a quarter in an hour and where we could see more than that easily from, you know, one or two rounds of severe storms. Or in urban areas where the storms move through once, they produce over an inch of rainfall. So, be on the lookout for a potential flash flood watch. We could issue that as um as late as tomorrow morning. Maybe as tomorrow afternoon if conditions warrant. So, again, we're we are right here the day before, uh the day of. Again, you know, have a communication plan. Know where your shelter location is.

[00:04:18]And when a warning is issued, you know, know where to go and where to be safe.

[00:04:22]So, again, uh just thank you for listening. And again, if you have any questions, reach out to us and we'll be more than happy to answer any questions you may have.