Could Trump turn on Britain over the Falklands?

追加: 2026-04-28

[00:00:00]This visit by King Charles to Washington to the court of the Orange Emperor. I really hope it goes well and in conventional terms I suspect it will.

[00:00:10]But without wishing any ill, I think it is sensible to adjust our expectations.

[00:00:16]Donald Trump likes the king certainly a lot more than he likes Karma. The welcome will be warm, the words warmer still. But this won't change by a jot or tit US policy to the UK. Trump has his worldview and he is furious about everybody not joining in in his grossly misconceived war on Iran. He will dish out the punishment he always intended to. From our point of view, the big question is whether he changes direction on the issue of the Faullands Islands and supports the Argentinian claim and everything that follows from that. In a highly aggressive intervention, the deputy Argentine president said earlier today that the UK must discuss the sovereignty of the islands with her and added, referring to a local nickname for the islanders, "The Kelpers are English people who live in Argentine territory.

[00:01:07]They are not part of the discussion. If they feel English, they should go back the thousands of miles away where their country is." Well, we're certainly no longer able to send the kind of task force that Margaret Thatcher did in 1982. Tory cuts and labor inaction have seen to that. But my guess, and it's only a guess, is that this was an anti-British Washington thought experiment and hasn't made it to official US policy and probably won't.

[00:01:36]The rabbit out of the crown moment might be Trump saying something reassuring about this. Welcome, if so, but I wouldn't bank on it yet. The risks may be on the margins of this royal visit, but they are very real. I would still much prefer it hadn't gone ahead, but it is. So, let's talk to Victoria Coats, President Trump's former deputy national security adviser. I asked her how seriously she thinks the US are considering supporting Argentina over the Falklands. Well, Andrew, it's great to be with you and I think it's really important to bear in mind this was an internal uh Pentagon memo outlining some different ideas that would help the administration express particularly to European NATO allies some very deep concerns about what was exposed during Operation Epic Fury with Iran. And so I think you see you should see this more as as sort of a thought piece as here are some ideas rather than declared policy out of the National Security Council which is what I would look at look for look to for that kind of official position but I do think it's really important you know we we at Heritage have our views on the Faullands. Obviously the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom is part of the Davis Institute which I run there.

[00:02:51]So, we take that that very very seriously and and Lady Thatcher's legacy. But at the same time, I think it's really important for your audience to know how unhappy the everyone in the United States is up to and including the president with Prime Minister Starmer's performance during Epic Fury. And so, you know, I don't know that this is an idea I would personally pursue, but I think that broader unhappiness is important. So we should take it seriously as an expression of anger but not necessarily as a fully settled policy.

[00:03:23]>> Absolutely. And and I wouldn't see it so much as anger as concern about the relationship. And it's been such a bull work of American and uh British security over the course of most of our 250 years that we're celebrating this year. Uh if you set aside the original unpleasantness, but that is a critical relation for relationship for us. It's economic, it's security, it's intelligence. And it shouldn't matter who the president or who the prime minister are. That relationship should be above politics. And I was pleased at the beginning of 2025 when it really seemed to be a good working relationship between them. But a lot of the things the prime minister Starmer has done uh over the course of the last 6 months have caused enormous problems for the United States. And I would see this as a symptom of that. Let me just push back a little bit on the Faulland's issue because the idea comes from Elbridge Colby who is a senior Pentagon adviser.

[00:04:17]I mean he's got a quite a senior position inside the administration and therefore it could be taken seriously perhaps and also it's being taken serious in Buenosaris where the deputy prime minister there has said that the UK now needs to reopen talks on sovereignty and the islanders should go home to Britain. Bridge KBY is the under secretary of defense for policy. Uh one of the sort of second level you had secretary, deputy secretary and then the under secretary. So it is yes a very important position but that's a policy position within the department of war.

[00:04:51]Uh and so I think you know bridge is an important person. Uh he's a friend of mine. I worked with him very closely in the first Trump term on the national security strategy. He's a very serious person. Um, so you know, I'm I'm not saying take this lightly. I'm saying this is an idea that Bridge had. Uh, and so, you know, it signals this broader unhappiness, but I would wait until we hear actually from the president to to see that is declared US policy.

[00:05:21]>> I guess it's going to be one of the issues hanging around during the royal visit when King Charles arrives in Washington. Now, it appears the two men get on quite well. What do you think the political impact of this will be?

[00:05:33]because it seems to me that it's it happens at one level. It's about the relationship between the two countries, but it probably won't affect President Trump's view of StarMA or the British government.

[00:05:43]>> Well, but I think it does go to that issue of the this the strength of the historic relationship between our two peoples and that that the uh president has great respect for King Charles and Queen Camila as he had for her majesty Elizabeth II. and you know his mother was Scottish and so he has a real affinity for the United Kingdom and so I think that will be on full display. I think it's a really good moment to have this visit and have that this this imi these images rather of US UK solidarity and I'm sure in their private conversations that his majesty will express you know his position on this and maybe you know go through the sensitivities of of the Faullands and that legacy in the UK and you know when it's when it's couched as an issue of British sovereignty I think you know you might see a slightly different approach taken And would you hope that the king acts as it were as a messenger between London and Washington bringing messages from you know the British system to the American one and then perhaps back again? Well, that's a pretty a pretty high level to have a messenger, but I think, you know, in in this case, it's it's a good channel of communication.

[00:06:55]Hopefully, get things on a more even keel and and maybe, you know, soothe smooth of some of these waters so we can more move forward more productively.

[00:07:05]>> Victoria Coat, as ever, great to talk to you. Thanks for joining us in LBC.

[00:07:09]>> Thank you, Andrew.

[00:07:10]>> How well or badly equipped are we? Vice Admiral Duncan Pots is former assistant chief of the naval staff and controller of the Navy and he joins me now. Uh Duncan Pots, thank you very much indeed for joining LBC. Um do I refer to you as admiral or vice admiral? How do I properly refer to you?

[00:07:27]>> Well Andrew, you can call me whatever you want, but Duncan will suffice as well.

[00:07:31]>> Well, let's stick with Duncan in that case. Um of course you you know the Falklands. You you you've served there.

[00:07:37]You've been been close to it. A lot of us are wondering if policy suddenly changes and the White House says no, we are now with Argentina and we agree there should be a proper negotiation and the British really have to come to the table and discuss the future of the the sovereignty of the islands. Are we effectively undefended in the South Atlantic these days?

[00:07:59]>> Well, the the Forklands is a very different place militarily than it was prior to 1982. Uh there's a well uh there's a well-found air base there. We have Typhoon air defense aircraft uh groundto-air missiles. We have a patrol ship down there and we have a resident garrison and we have done since 1982. So as a deterrent uh and of course getting to the islands from Argentina, it is 300 miles away and uh you know we're heading towards the winter. It's a it's a fairly major operation to undertake. So we do have a a deterrent force down there.

[00:08:36]>> Well, as can I just add one thing about the Falklands that people are missing here is that it's easy to paint this as a sort of postc colonial thing with you know the Brits again. But of course uh the Falklands was uninhabited until the French and the Spanish and then the British discovered it. There was no native population. It's been British since 1833.

[00:08:59]So um you know the the arguments I mean we've been talking about Diego Garcia for some time. The the arguments are very very different in this case >> and presumably although we could not reassemble the kind of task force we saw in 1982. Um there are still naval facilities that could be used if there was a serious a more serious threat.

[00:09:20]>> Yeah. and air facilities and bases and air defense and uh you know as as we found in 82 getting a nuclear submarine down there very quickly is uh is a is a very vexing deterrent for anyone.

[00:09:33]>> Now I know that you're also a bit of an expert on the straight of Hormuz and all of that. Can I ask you the the Iranians are now saying that they could possibly reopen the straight if a new round of negotiations goes well. How difficult will it be one day to reopen that straight in terms of the number of mines bobbing around and the uncertainty around the shoreline?

[00:09:56]>> Well, this situation's been going on for years. You know, those were the memories going back to the 1980s, which uh incidentally the summer of 1982, I was in the straits of Vulmoo, not the Fogland. So uh uh it's been going on for a long time during the tank war and uh Iran has asserted uh this right of control for for for many years. But the reality is under international maritime law uh that it's an international strait recognized as such and is is free for every nation on on the planet to use.

[00:10:32]And one of my big concerns with everything that's going on this asserting you know they can tax they control uh if somehow that becomes a new president and that happens that will resonate elsewhere you know the high north is opening up as the ice melts the South China Sea and and many other international straits such as Babel Mende which we've been hearing so much about in recent years these are vital arteries for global trade and 90% of trade goes by sea.

[00:11:03]>> So this is a genuine threat to to global trade around the world, not just in the straight of Hormuz. Duncan Pots, thank you very, very much indeed for joining LBC