LIVE: Daily Energy Markets Podcast

追加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Brent A and up about 1%. Interestingly, WTI is uh above Brent today uh trading at 107 nearly $108 a barrel. Um let's start off this morning in Tehran with Daniel Rahmat, senior energy security consultant in Iran, one of Iran's top energy uh analysts. Daniel, the current situation this week feels like we're kind of uh in a moment where something needs to shift, something is going to shift. The week started with Trump once again threatening imminent wars restarting and then there was a pause for Gulf States to lead what seems to be a separate or same effort as the Pakistanis. a little unclear to me if it's one peace negotiation, but ultimately there's some efforts by the local countries to try to get involved.

[00:01:01]What's your read of the situation as it currently stands? Are we close to a deal or is this all Trumpian noise, do you think?

[00:01:10]>> Hello, Sean and everybody. It's again a great pleasure to to be here. Um, it's it's a very tricky situation. Um you know everybody uh is sick and tired of the current situation in the region.

[00:01:26]market need more oil and of course uh if if the situation continues you're going to face huge long-term economic crisis and everybody is aware of them but uh the point is uh Iranians and American position are still very far from each other and the major major obstacle within this uh current negotiations ations is not the efforts of the countries. Pakistan has done its best.

[00:01:59]The the Gulf countries are very eager to make a deal. Let's say UAE apart the whole GCC is is doing their best to make a deal between Iran and the US element is Israel. you know the the Benjamin and Yahoo's uh political decision is very different with the situation and all the demands of the global market and also Iran is also understanding that this this cannot last forever but but the leverage Iran has gained during this war which is this trade of almost is pushing a lot of pressure in America and the point is whether the pressure from the stage is higher than the pressure from the Israelis lobby or not but at the moment I think the positions are see very far from each other. Maybe a kind of entrance deal could be a resolution to to take the market back to the uh normal situation if you can call it.

[00:02:51]>> And what what is daily life like in Thran at the moment? I mean, we're here in in Dubai continue to sort of try get everything back to normal, schools and work and all the usual stuff with this big cloud still lingering in the background. What's daily life like in in Thran? Are you able to get all the food you need? Are you able to go around go about your day? What's what's that like at the moment?

[00:03:18]>> Yeah, life is life is very normal here.

[00:03:20]Inflation apart which we had a huge wave of inflation after the war. inflation apart things are normal everything is accessible but uh the horizon is very dark because the the sea is blocked and and we don't know whether the you know we have a lot of land borders with countries like Turkey Pakistan with the CIS countries in the north to to Iraq so goods are being imported to the country but the the cost is has increased very much and we are not sure whether the the already damaged economy can can tolerate or can can survive this huge huge huge new waves of uh inflation and higher prices and additionally the steel industry and petrochemical industry were hit. So these were the two pillars of uranian domestic economy which we need to see with what pace we are going to be able to repair them.

[00:04:13]Let's go to Pakistan to Osama Risi global market and product strategist primary vision. Obviously uh Osama uh Pakistan has been at the forefront of uh facilitating the negotiations between Thran and Washington. What's your read on the situation at the moment? Is Pakistan sidelined to this Saudi UAE Qatar initiative or is it all one? Is it progressing? What are your thoughts?

[00:04:42]Well, u Sean, thank you so much for having me today. I think it's uh I do not see that this as sidelining Pakistan or anything. In fact, uh our interior minister was uh uh visited Thran second time in less than a week, which shows that uh the efforts or maybe the intention, the the eagerness, let's call it uh to put an end to this conflict next door, um is still very high, still very relevant and Pakistan remains relevant to the peace process. There are two things that I think are emerging uh maybe patterns. First because of the nuclear issue because both the sides um are adamant on on their own stance. I think we will see or we would like to see uh that the nuclear issue will become or diverge from this current war.

[00:05:30]So maybe uh the peace process will somehow one way or the other have to take out the nuclear issue in a way maybe they can say that we can party uh visits or supervision or we can address this afterwards but let's just first focus on straight of our moves and then let's just keep keep it open and that sort of uh serves as an opening cell in the long drawn peace process as it is going to be. The second one is also um I think there is US, Israel and Iran war. Then I think underneath that regional conflicts have also started to um emerge. They were still there but now I think it they stand they are they exist as a standalone conflict as well. UAE have had some issues with Pakistan as well recently. Um then UAE and Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia there were reports by Financial Times is trying to get some sort of uh uh pact with Iran as well. Right. There are in Pakistan talks of even a MEPto Middle East Pakistan treaty organization which seems to be very interesting to me. U in all of this uh in all of this paraphernalia I think Pakistan remains um at the center and we will see what will happen. I can't say anything but I think efforts are still underway. To me I I still believe that until anything happens we cannot be sure that whether we are closer to a deal or we are not.

[00:06:56]Jolian Welch, CEO of WP Consulting Limited, sitting in London. Jolian, of course, long experience working with the UN and as a government adviser for the British government. What's your read Jolian? And sort of obviously we're the the screaming absence here is the Security Council or the role for a a a multilateral agency in which to sort of give some sort of cradle for these talks that are supposedly going on. How do you read the current situation?

[00:07:27]I think the um almost all sides now want an offramp from this conflict um with a possible exception of Israel which has its own priorities. Um sometimes conflicts end without a deal, without a compromise. You know the second world war in Europe ended without a compromise. I think this is a conflict which has to end with a deal. And at the moment neither of the sides, the US or um or Iran um is is willing to make the compromises which are necessary to get to a deal. Either one side or both sides needs to make some big compromises. Now I I I agree at this stage um any kind of progress towards a deal probably needs to break it up into different pieces so people don't try to resolve the nuclear issue in the first bite. But even just getting the straits of Hormuz open um at this point um it would be a is a significant challenge and I don't see either side ready to make the compromises which would make that happen. Now both sides are trying to are hoping that pressure will grow on the other and to some degree pressure is growing on the others but it needs a lot of pressure would need a lot of pressure for that to grow and they're trying to put pressure on the US is threatening uh Iran is threatening but as we currently stand neither side really wants to carry out those threats um so they're not all that credible both sides I think are still willing to put up with quite a lot of pain just coming back to your first point on the UN I still take the view that um and we talked about this a few weeks ago. I still take the view it's not really necessary at this stage um Pakistan is managing um negotiations other Gulf states are getting involved.

[00:09:12]I think that's a perfectly sensible and reasonable way forward. Once a deal is done then it does need to come back to the UN in my view and into the security council not least so that the legal ends can be tied up so everyone knows what the legal position is if they're using the straits. um if they're dealing with uh with Iran and and it needs the the rest of the world to come together and support whatever the uh whatever the settlement is as it comes out. Mita Chatterved a research associate at Flux Markets in London tracking the uh oil and oil products markets very closely.

[00:09:48]You've heard the the three guys there ma I wanted to get their voices on the table giving us that political context.

[00:09:55]The oil markets how are they reading it?

[00:09:57]It seems at the moment we're kind of locked in this uh tight band between 105 and 110 on Brent until there's some sort of clarity way forward. Where do you see the markets at the moment and their views on this crisis in the Gulf?

[00:10:11]>> Uh yes, that's ex uh what what you just said exactly. So Brent, as you've said, has been sort of sandwiched between 105 and 110. Uh right now it seems it it seems odd that we're well not exactly odd because any particular deescalation will take us to let's say 103 with $100 still being a very very critical floor.

[00:10:33]It just seems over here that the market has reached a bit of a stalemate and especially the way in which information has been tra traveling through. We've reacting more through truth social announcements more than you know we are through articles or just official news sources. And right now it seems like we saw this yesterday when we sold off within minutes from above 109 to first 106. Saw some congestion there. Then again within minutes 103. All of this has been on the back of unverified sources. you know, we keep it's almost like watching a tennis match between we're going to strike tomorrow versus, you know, there's going to be a resolution within minutes, within hours, and it's just it's just difficult to trade in an environment like that, which is also what is leading to that sandwich off a range almost, you know.

[00:11:21]>> Are we seeing low liquidity as a result?

[00:11:23]Are people staying on the sidelines?

[00:11:26]um in Brent futures like if you look at the overall futures contract overall open interest has risen but it's it's interesting because shorts have also risen it's not necessarily a long or just like a long market like we would have seen at the start of the war so there are people betting on the other side as well you know it's more of a two-way flow of a market in Bren specifically when you go on to refined products it's it's a little more diverse so gasoline as we've been seeing what's happening with the US stocks. You know, they're like 10% below 5year averages.

[00:12:00]They're well below 5-year ranges. And this obviously comes at a time right ahead of like we're on in the onset of summertime demand in the US and the World Cup coming up just generally, you know, we're expecting good demand to come out of the US uh while supply is fairly tight. And um so we're seeing that with the US right now. Um sorry, we're seeing a lot more buy side interest with gasoline because of that right now. And um so on gasoline specifically, you'd see volatility has risen which has impacted other markets as well. But now it seems like even in markets like that where there's just this clear bullish fundamental picture.

[00:12:39]Um a lot more players are starting to take their to profit off of this because there's just so much more uncertainty regarding crude. So we saw for example the frontman EOP crack was in a very clear uptrend for all of April into May.

[00:12:54]It reached a high of around $35 per barrel and now it's at $30 per barrel.

[00:12:58]Nothing's really changed fundamentally.

[00:13:00]In fact, there was another EIA reported draw yesterday, but players are still willing to take profit over here because there's just so much uncertainty. So to answer your question it there definitely is um there definitely are players on the sideline because it's difficult to trade in this market in a lot more products um in refined products we are seeing some length still pile up because there is this bullish fundamental story but I think anything that is more susceptible to headline risk like gas oil for example like diesel crack or or jet cracks they are still fairly rangebound right now uh like what we're seeing in Bren so gas oil as very he very high levels like this is a fairly elevated level for the frontman gasol crack which is currently at it's above $50 but it's it refuses to go below $50.

[00:13:48]Um that's the frontman gasol versus rent crack but it's also >> and what would that have looked like before the crisis? What's the normal uh spread there?

[00:13:56]>> So just so on the 27th of Feb was on it was at $25 the frontman gas all crack.

[00:14:01]So it's double that value now. um and it reached a high of 75 in like in early April. But the fact that we're still we're seeing even less supply now, you know, the straight is effectively blocked still and we're 25 dollars lesser than the all than the high that we'd seen in the war tells us that there are people still sort of cautious about taking more positions on.

[00:14:23]>> Sure. Daniel, before the we had the um uh summit in China last week, we were talking a little bit about you had mentioned that Iran would probably like to see China embed the Iranian uh US the the settlement sort of pathway forward inside a grand bargain of China, US and so forth and maybe act as some kind of guarantor. tour. Daniel, did you see anything in the China US summit that gave you encouragement that China would do a little bit more heavy lifting here to help get to a a settlement?

[00:15:08]Uh Sean, [clears throat] you see China as major priority uh in it geopolitical plan is Taiwan and um the the the Middle East crisis has become a kind of leverage over the China and the US position on Taiwan I think. But China has very openly uh in informed Americans that they want to continue buying Iranian crude. That means that the flow of crude from the straight of our moons including Iranian crude is one of the top priorities of President Xi. And this is a sign that tells me that a higher level of escalation between Iran and US is not 100% is not in the basket of China's actually demands from Americans. So this uh if we cannot call it one of the major pillars of American Chinese future close future of actually um if you can call it new balance could be a part of that but at the same time China refused to step in to push Iran or to the US to to conclude the current crisis. So I think part of the Iranianamerican uh crisis was discussed with with President Xi but uh not the whole package was agreed because China you know the Chinese policy is if you enter more than a certain level inside the problem you will be a part of the problem not a part of the solution. So Chinese are trying to keep themselves away from the crisis to keep their hand up to to be able to make to be able to be a part of the solution not a part of the problem and at the moment I think China did not do very much to resolve the issue but they showed their red lines to Americans that what matters to them. Osama just picking up on that. I mean, does does Pakistan I believe the Pakistani prime minister was meant to go to China this week. Uh is there one of the things you would say lacking in this process and Jolian mentioned that the countries involved are um are handling the the current sort of curation of this. But one thing it seems missing is a a a [laughter] an actor of scale, right? Pakistan doesn't seem to have leverage. It's more of a messenger rather than a a a conductor of of of influence and compromises. Uh where is that intersection point between Pakistan and China? Is China quietly behind the scenes supporting stronger than we think or what what's your own sense?

[00:17:58]Well, Sean, I mean you're correct in saying that Pakistan of course um has no leverage or influence over the two waring parties and uh even international law according to that like the these are two sovereign states fighting um we can only provide um our good offices or mediation grounds in terms of China anything that happens this is my reading in the eastern hemisphere or I rather closer to China's periphery I think China does have a say in that either directly or indirectly. But another thing or another pattern that we have noticed in China is that it does not involve itself uh in a bold um highlighted way especially when it comes to conflict. Uh China is playing a long game when it comes to Iran. U China wants Iran to be strong enough to be able to absorb uh US and or any other external aggression but also may not want to see um um Iran getting stronger enough to maybe challenge China at some point in the future. Talking about real politic here. Other than that when it comes to Pakistan, Pakistan does have support of the China. I mean when our prime minister visits uh uh she president she the main thing to >> I'm losing you would be the economic >> sorry can you hear me >> I I am I'm I'm but your words are dropping I don't know if it might help to turn off your camera to preserve bandwidth >> can you hear me now I'm so sorry for that >> no no no please >> so I was just saying that when it comes to China and our meeting with them uh I think the main task would be to asssuring Pakistan's economic stability um and u maybe because of we have had around $3.5 billion of foreign exchange reserves pulled out of our u national excheer uh we have we are facing a huge um inflationary crisis at the moment the dollar is expected to appreciate the budget is coming uh up in you know in June and July so these would be the things that Pakistan would want support from China I don't I think Pakistan once again can influence China to maybe pitch in and play a stronger more uh vocal role in the current conflict. China is not going to do that simply.

[00:20:17]>> Yeah. Jolian, listening there the the influences. Where is Europe in all of this? I mean it seems that there's increasing fractures between Europe and America uh on many issues. Uh we're seeing the draw downs of NATO of US forces in in Europe. and we have a NATO summit are coming. Is there a role is is Europe have they any muscle to bring to the solution of this equation?

[00:20:43]Um obviously the the last time we went round this course with a with a sort of settlement with Iran, Europe was heavily involved um in that and that was an essential part of the deal that was done. Um >> JCPOA you're referring to.

[00:20:59]>> Yeah. And I I I in a way I would say you you kind of need the rest of the world to come in and support the development of a solution. But neither parties really got the support of the rest of the world on other than people want an end an end to it. The the US didn't build a coalition before it went in. It just allied with Israel on this. Um, so, so there's a sort of there's a bit of a reluctance I think on the on the European side to get involved, but it's difficult even if they wanted to. It's difficult to know what they would do at this point. It's not really very clear to me. Maybe there are things behind the scenes, but I'm not sure there are. It's not really very clear to me what the thing is that Europe is being asked to get behind. like you know what's what's the thing that's on the table which looks like a solution to this which the two parties are sort of talking around where Europe can get involved. So I think that is a challenge uh for the European countries. Um and there may be a point when that is easier where there is something that they can they can kind of get hold of and try to lean in. I I I think a sort of some sort of a grand global bargain where the the the European countries support something, China supports something. Um, you know, I can see that would be helpful, but I just don't see what that is at the moment. And I think everyone is just as other commentators are saying in in terms of whether the China is prepared to risk its arm on this. I think the EU is the EU and European countries are probably in a similar situation. and they don't quite know, you know, they they don't have a sort of natural ally on the table to get behind. They don't know what it is that they would be getting behind.

[00:22:38]Mita looking at this from the market's point of view h given what's at stake here as we get close to 90 days of this crisis and the straightfor and so forth. It's been the sort of cons one consistent narrative through this three months has been my goodness oil prices have really not got that high given the scale of the crisis and here we are every day that passes it seems you know we've had record inventory draws in the US this week uh the markets barely moved where is the connect between the market price the front month uh and the scale of disruption uh that we're aware of that we keep getting be told about and yet not reflected in the oil price. Is are market actors perceiving this as a normal market or what's the disconnect that's still there? I'd say the disconnect um is between we're currently the front month being June contracts for everything other than Brent right now.

[00:23:41]Um I think the disconnect is between that particular point of the curve versus say a Q3 or like even an early Q4 is what I'm seeing positioning wise where if even if open interest is sort of trailing off in the June contracts for uh that being for futures for being uh that being for the refined products or even crude oil swaps uh it's sort of picking up and there is still some underlying buying that we're seeing in the Q3 contracts which is um versus in the front. So even if and I think that's because of just people being uncertain about what's happening in the front, you know, we're we're still we if someone came and told me there would be a resolution this week versus if someone came and told me if there's going to be a res that there's going to be a resolution at the end of the month, the end of next month, I would believe all three scenarios like we don't exactly know what's happening uh when it when it comes to the war. And I think because of that, it's a fairly difficult market to trade as I've said earlier as well. And >> I mean there was a sense earlier in the in the conflict that while the front wasn't reflecting the immediate reality, we were seeing the physical markets reflect the reality. Brent was >> Exactly. Yeah.

[00:24:49]>> We're not seeing that much as much anymore either.

[00:24:53]>> So in the physical market again it's it's interesting because if you look at the DFL that's the data front line. So that's dated print versus Brent swaps.

[00:25:01]We're again it's the same thing where we're seeing selling in June and just general just de-risking and just generally just weakness in June uh contracts but we're seeing support in July onwards. So again it's just it's this interesting thing where traders are willing to put in longs for July into September. There just is this weird sticky floor for that whereas June is seeing much much more of a beating. So spreads between these two regions are therefore also fairly weak right now. I think um it's interesting because of course if the war continues and even if it even if we see a resolution in the coming weeks there is going to be underlying tightness in Q3 and I think that's what everyone's sort of betting on right now. That's more of a certainty than you know betting on the front which is going to be a lot more um you know at risk to whatever is happening with the headlines. So I'm so my assumption is that's that's what's happening right now. That's what I'm seeing. That said yep go ahead finish.

[00:25:58]>> Yeah. That said, there still is considerable amounts of CTA net length that we're seeing across the futures contract.

[00:26:04]>> What? Sorry.

[00:26:05]>> A CTA, so just algorithmic traders seeing a lot more of we're still seeing a good level of net length placed by them in Brent, in TI, and in most uh most certainly in Arbop gasoline futures. Uh so if we do see um a bearish headline or if we do see some more deisking come in that's going to be a interesting domino that would that could fall. So we could see a lot more weakness on the back of these uh CTAs removing their removing their long positions because as we know because they're algorithms it's going to be something like new moving average or just some form of stop based on technicals and if that gets triggered uh like if Bren goes back to 100 or if gasoline goes to the high goes to let's say $28 it's currently at around 31 that's the EVO crack. If prices move below c like significant support levels such as that that could be an interesting domino that would fall.

[00:26:59]>> Right. Let's go to the survey question and get the view of the room on that which is um already somebody in the chat room going uh no survey yet. Uh the the um the maybe the the survey didn't get through. Um, Daniel, I wanted to get your views on uh the question of when we talked before with the shutdown of of the uh embargo or the blockade on Iranian um ports and the flow of Iranian oil in and out. The question became whether we would have to close in uh production in like we've seen in Iraq and in Kuwait and in Qatar. What's the outlook for Iran managing the the blockade on its ports and and shutting in production?

[00:27:53]>> Um, Ch, [clears throat] you know, we our domestic consumption during April was about 2.2 2 million barrels per day and uh during May on average it was a little bit more about 2.3 million barrels per day and at the same time the average of Iranian food exports was about 400,000 barrels per day. So you see on an average of 2.7 million barrels was domestically produced and a part of that small portion of that exported and domestically produced and uh well Iran has taken several measures as I told you before there are railways connecting Iran to China the capac the capacity is still limited but Iran is increasing the capacity of exporting more crude to to China towards it railways.

[00:28:45]And also there are always ways to bypass the sanctions by exporting oil to uh neighboring countries but this is not >> you had said before that that was a 500,000 barrel a day sort of maximum.

[00:28:59]>> Yeah maximum capacity I think would be but this is not at the moment practical.

[00:29:05]A big portion of that 400,000 barrels was exported by C. uh this is the average of uh average of May but let's say it's going to take time for Iran to reach solutions for increasing its land uh crude oil exporting capacity but uh the major the lion share of the Iranian current production is consumed domestically and still there are a lot of there are a lot of um there there's huge let's say um onshore storage capacity remaining. So uh I'm not very worried about the the shortterm uh production. This is the the production has decreased significantly. But but this is not going to damage the uh Iranian oil industry because Iran is technically capable and can manage which wells to shut down and which ones not to. But but this is going to be a short-term policy. you know, Iran is trying to with with this way or the other let the Chinese oil flow toward this trade and also recently one one uh Korean linked VCC passed this trade to kind of send a message to Americans that let's loosen the blockade but this is uh 100% tied to the uh conclusion of any kind of deal with the US >> but up till now But you're saying ultimately up till now there's been no need to shut in production yet.

[00:30:44]>> Yes. No need to shut in the the the major part the lion share of the production. You know Iran has huge domestic consumption. Iran can consume more liquids and instead export more natural gas to neighboring countries.

[00:30:59]It's a kind of indirect export of products. You know, Iran is consuming more liquid fuels in its power plants and instead can export more gas to Iraq and Turkey.

[00:31:10]>> Right.

[00:31:12]>> Okay. Manage its uh it it its production and use consumption and of course coming into the hot weather now uh in the region. A lot more pull on uh on fuel oil and and and liquids for uh increased power production power supply. Osama, speaking of which, there was reports of some cargos getting out to uh Pakistan for the first time, some LNG cargos. Has that been noted on its arrival in Pakistan? How severe is the energy crisis now in Pakistan?

[00:31:49]>> Um, for good measure, I've turned off the camera before because I think my internet is a little sketchy.

[00:31:53]>> It's gone dark in Pakistan. That answers the question.

[00:31:56]>> It is. Yes, literally. Uh no but uh we did uh receive some caros and of LG in Pakistan. But interestingly we were just discussing this um only yesterday that despite all of that all of this two things have happened. First our major or I think the only uh supplier of LNG Kata you know it has declared force Majou and we are suffering from a shortfall there.

[00:32:21]Secondly, the spot price has been so high like five, six, seven dollars high versus what the tankers we have booked.

[00:32:27]We are not receiving that. Third, the domestic gas production in many of the fields have also started to stall if not fall. So what is resulting is that our electricity prices have increased uh a lot and um as the summer uh set in uh we are seeing already temperatures like 45 46° expected to go 50 plus um so there's going to be a huge huge shortfall. Uh one thing that is also important in this regard is that we're already facing what we call load shedding anywhere between 5 to 6 hours every day and in some outskirts of the cities it's even worse like 10 hours. So there is a clear shortfall of um you know the resources through which we make our energy and that has um solar has helped us a little bit uh but I don't think it is going to fill out the gap when the summer proper hits in and I think it's uh looking really bad unfortunately. So there will be actually blackouts and and there it's not about the price, it's just the limited amount of supply.

[00:33:29]>> Yes. Yes.

[00:33:31]>> Jolian, similar sort of domestic question to get a sense of the UK. There was some momentum in recent weeks with the energy crisis that uh the the Labor government's policy towards the North Sea uh may shift and there might be an opening there etc. And now they've got obviously the implosion of the leadership of the Labor Party. Could you just talk us through a little bit about a that political crisis and how it may impact or not the policies towards opening up the North Sea which seem to have some momentum recently. I'm not sure how much momentum um opening up the North Sea more had with the current government and they've been pretty clear um of of the current cabinet. Ed Miband who's the energy secretary clearly has a you know a clear vision about where he wants energy to go and that has pretty broad support. Um the arguments for opening up the North Sea are as much frankly cultural as they are economic at the moment. It's part of a sort of culture wars battle between different bits of um of um of the pol politics in the UK. Um I I think the what what the current situation is doing actually over the over the long term logically strengthens the argument that we need to be more self-sufficient, more renewables, more nuclear, less reliant on oil and gas. Um in the short term, there's a kind of seductive if we if we all just pumped more out of the North Sea, wouldn't we all get richer? The way I mean you all know far more about the energy markets than I do. That's not really the way the energy markets work.

[00:35:11]That doesn't much help um UK domestic supply. It just puts slightly more oil and gas in the general global mix. So I think logic the logic and the argument is with that core current government um position and if they if they're sensible and they play it well then um then they they should be able to strengthen their public positions um on that and and build support for them. And would Andy Burnham, if he was to be successful, did would he bring a different agenda or would it be more or less the same? A kind of an >> middle I think it's the same. I I think it's a it's a it's a sensible serious robust core agenda. Also, these are long long-term um commitments and projects that governments make to move energy production in different directions. It's not something that changes over a course of a few weeks. It's it's a it's a you know they're multi multi-year um policies so it's very hard to change them around. I don't see anyone really in the Labour party um senior in the Labour party saying actually what we need to do is pump more o oil and gas out of the North Sea and that would resolve our that would resolve our problems. What they really need to do is to take on the narrative that there is a that that that is an option which would um which would make uh the situation better. Uh the survey results there is um do you expect Iran US ceasefire to break down and hot war to restart?

[00:36:37]Thankfully uh 60% say no. Uh let's hope that is the case. Uh Mita, last word to you there. Uh obviously Europe facing hot summers as well. uh the the the increased temperatures, the incre pull on AC in in Europe uh with particularly southern Europe. Uh how well is Europe placed to face its its its travel season and its now increasing AC season uh as this crisis deepens?

[00:37:11]>> Um I think more of the fear currently stems from the travel season with jet stocks currently. um you know we are hearing a lot more rhetoric about them.

[00:37:21]Um I think right now it seems like the US is best placed to provide to be that provider of jet fuel and they do have um jet fuels. If you look at the recent EIA stats their jet fuel storage is still above averages. Um the only concern there is freight because that's also been ballooning up um uh following the war and um but for now I think should that flow continue and then we also have flow obviously it's a bit more it's a bit less reliable but there still is flow from the Dota refinery and just generally from West Africa that also could provide jet fuel to Europe. Um, should that continue, Europe could continue could see a fairly could could get through the summer, but it wouldn't be an easy summer to get through. Uh, just in terms of what it would mean for, you know, just what it would ultimately mean for um airline prices, um, ticket prices and it's going to be a difficult summer definitely, but >> but not shortages and blackouts like in uh in Pakistan.

[00:38:22]>> Not yet.

[00:38:23]>> Not yet. Uh, it's early days. Let's see.

[00:38:27]Listen, we'll have to wrap it up there.

[00:38:28]This is a fascinating moment in this crisis. It feels like something needs to shift. The status quo uh can't sustain, but uh getting an exit, getting this knot untied also seems very very difficult to identify as we've clearly uh discussed over the last 40 minutes.

[00:38:47]Um the the situation we'll have to keep an eye on. Brent is is kind of lost as well. Not really giving us much to be guided by. 10510 seems to be also looking for direction.

[00:39:00]H we'll wrap it up there. Julian Welch in London. Thank you so much. Mita Chhatverdi also in London. Dali Rahmed in Thran and Osama Risby in Islamabad.

[00:39:09]Thank you guys. All the best. Have a good day.

[00:39:12]>> Thank you. Thank you.

[00:39:13]>> Thank you. Thank you.