The $1.8 Trillion AI Time Bomb Nobody's Talking About !?!

[00:00:04]There we go. There we go. Finally. Geez whiz, man. Everything crashed as soon as I hit stream.

[00:00:14]Can't believe it. Anyway, welcome to the show and welcome back everybody. Good morning. And uh you know there is a problem brewing out there. Not a little cherry bomb type of problem. We're talking about a jet firecracker explosion time bomb. $1.8 trillion maybe thermonuclear device ticking away in this AI revolution here. And that's the good stuff, right? That's the good stuff. Got a little peach today. And um you're watching the financial news.

[00:00:53]You've heard the breathless hype. I mean, XAI now public the biggest IPO launch in history through SpaceX.

[00:01:05]It's funny, Twitter is now public again with a bigger market cap than it used to have and got all his money back. And Goldman Sachs is out here saying that Hyperscaler capital expenditure is probably going to hit 1.4 4 trillion in 2027.

[00:01:26]And this matters to all our wallets right now because the companies building this AI utopia are quietly building uh burying almost $2 trillion in debt off the balance sheet.

[00:01:41]They're not even actually keeping it on the balance sheet. They're kind of hiding it. And when when you start hiding what's actually happening, that's a problem.

[00:01:54]And you know, this could make Inron look like a lemonade stand problem. And when the music stops, the revenue doesn't show up to pay the chips and the bills and the capital expenditures. The companies holding the bag, aren't going to be the tech giants. It's going to be private credit markets. The suppliers, basically, the people actually building the data centers and pretty much anybody holding the S&P 500 index. But don't panic because that's, you know, there's there's a massive systemic credit bubble here.

[00:02:32]But anytime we get that, there's a way to make money. Today, I'm going to show you how to play the enablers, dodge the landmines, and maybe profit from the greatest magic trick of the decade. So, let's break down the magic trick here.

[00:02:45]You see, when a company like Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle buys billions of dollars worth of Nvidia chips, you think that shows up as a m massive deb debit, you know, massive debt on their balance sheet, right? And it's wrong. Welcome to the world of magical off-balance commitments. See, Morgan Stanley just put out a report that if you're invested in this thing, maybe maybe you should uh take a gander. I mean, might have you breathe in on in a paper bag.

[00:03:18]There is $982 billion in purchase commitments.

[00:03:24]That's money that companies have promised to pay, but because the chips haven't been actually delivered, it doesn't show up as a liability. It's just an order. Or order on the books.

[00:03:35]But companies like Nvidia count order on the books as like credit in the bank.

[00:03:44]It's kind of like putting a Ferrari on your credit card, but telling your wife you don't owe anything until the dealer actually hands you the keys. Then you have another on top of the 982 billion that's committed, you have another $822 billion in lease commitments that haven't officially started.

[00:04:03]Plus, and that's not all. You have another $110 billion in unpaid bills that we're deferring H. That's just slow pay.

[00:04:17]They're actually instead of net 30, net 45, maybe net 60, maybe net 90 before they pay the bills.

[00:04:28]You add all these little bits up, three three little, you know, no big deals, you get $1.8 trillion of shadow leverage right now.

[00:04:39]And it keeps getting bigger, keeps growing.

[00:04:42]Leverage is getting quite insane. The gross leverage of these hyperscalers has doubled in the last two quarters.

[00:04:50]They're now carrying more leverage than the entire energy sector.

[00:04:55]Think about that.

[00:04:58]And if if anything hiccups, this is going to be a problem. So, let's let's repeat that. The guys writing the code for the chat bots are more leveraged than the guys drilling for oil 2 miles deep in the ocean.

[00:05:16]But this gets even better or maybe worse depending on your portfolio. Let me tell you a story about a little deal that just happened. It's the absolute pinnacle of this. You can you can say it's not a bubble, but you don't float $1.8 trillion and it not be some kind of bubble. Apollo and Blackstone, two of the biggest private equity, private credit firms on the planet, just raised $35 billion in chipbacked special purpose vehicle for an AI company called Anthropic.

[00:05:47]Now, follow the bouncing ball here because this is where the magic happens. how this money gets created out of thin air.

[00:05:57]Broadcom is backstopping the deal.

[00:06:00]Anthropic is going to use that $35 billion to buy Google chips, who makes the Google chipscom.

[00:06:09]Oh, and by the way, Google owns 14% of Anthropic.

[00:06:14]Morgan Stanley, who advised Broadcom on the deal, is also lending money to the investors participating in the deal.

[00:06:23]H. All right.

[00:06:26]Sounds like a circular firing squad there.

[00:06:30]I mean, it's a perfect circular deal, right? It's almost the human centipede of financial engineering here. They're lending money to themselves to buy chips from themselves to pump the valuation of a of the company that they actually own.

[00:06:44]I mean, works till it doesn't. Kind of terrifying. exactly what happens when you've got to push the numbers beyond anybody's seen. You you got to find new buyers.

[00:06:59]And what if to find new buyers, you just finance the new buyers?

[00:07:06]I mean, what's the middle model here? How do you how do you stay out of this? How do you navigate a market where the biggest companies on earth are playing three card monty with $2 trillion?

[00:07:19]the framework kind of simple here picks and shovels rehypocation.

[00:07:26]So as I say all the time and like this gold rush you don't buy the you don't invest in the people mining the gold you invest in the equipment.

[00:07:37]So during a creditfueled AI bubble though the guys financing all the equipment could be powering this whole thing and you actively bet against the guys who are getting crushed by the depreciation here. That's kind of the way you would do it. So, let's talk specific tickers here. You know, play number one is the dealers, right? Look at Broadcom, AVGO.

[00:08:07]They aren't just designing chips for Google. They're literally backstopping debt that funds the purchases. They're collecting fees on every side of the transaction. Or take a look at the private credit kings, Apollo Global, APO, Blackstone, BX. They're the ones setting them up this massive special purpose vehicle. They're taking like retiree annuity money, packing packing it up into loans backed by AI chips, collecting massive management fees, and as long as the music keeps playing, everything's good. APO, BX, they're collecting the cover charge at the door.

[00:08:45]Play number two is the power grid here.

[00:08:48]You know what doesn't care about off ballot sheet accounting and the electric bill. These data centers require biblical amounts of electricity. And we're talking about Vester Energy, VST, Constellation Energy, CEG. It doesn't matter if the AI models are generating revenue or just writing bad poetry. The servers still have to be plugged in. The cooling systems still have to run. the physical infrastructure, it still runs. It still sucks power. And quant services, take a PWR, they get paid actual cash, not future AI token revenue. Then play number three, the avoid list. And this is crucial here.

[00:09:24]You have to look at who's going to get hit when the bill comes due. Oracle, ORCL, and Morgan Stanley's estimating if you include their le finance leases, Oracle's true capital expenditure, sales to ratio expenditure, capex to sales ratio in 2027 is going to be 189%.

[00:09:47]They're spending almost twice what they're going to make in revenue to build out infrastructure.

[00:09:55]That's not really a sustainable business model. Well, it's kind of a casino bet at this point. And look at the depreciation time bomb. All this money is sitting there. Construction in progress.

[00:10:06]But eventually those servers get turned on. And when they do, depreciation starts hitting the income statement.

[00:10:12]Morgan Stanley estimates that we're looking at about $520 billion in cumulative depreciation hitting Microsoft, Oracle, Metal, Meta, and Google over the next three years. if their AI revenue doesn't absolutely explode to cover that cost, their profit margins are going to collapse into the dirt. So, if you're holding Meta or Amazon, who by the way are projected to have flat or even negative cash flow next year, you need to understand the risks that you're taking on here.

[00:10:42]And the ultimate wild card, my magnificent monsters, all of this debt, all of this leverage, all of this circular financing, they're all relying on one assumption that companies are going to keep paying top dollar to access AI models.

[00:11:02]But what happens if they don't? What happens if corporate America looks at the bill from OpenAI or Anthropic and says, "You know what?

[00:11:11]I think we're going to hire some people instead of paying this bill.

[00:11:20]Maybe they look at China where they're actually releasing open source models that are 90% more costefficient to run.

[00:11:30]If token prices collapse because cheap overseas competition, the revenue assumptions backing that $1.8 trillion in shadow debt evaporate.

[00:11:40]And when the collateral value of AI chips drops, those chip back loans, they go bad. The pen pops, the bubble crushes everybody.

[00:11:51]So stay sharp out there, everybody. This is uh this is a problem. They're hiding.

[00:11:58]This is exactly what happened in the the housing crisis. It's just a different debt. It's being hidden, kept off books.

[00:12:11]You can see it coming. You just don't know when it's going to hit. That's the problem. It's the housing crisis. We I knew there was a problem. It just when was it going to hit? Anyway, all trading involves a substantial risk of loss. Past performance not necessarily indicative of future results. This presentation intended to beformational, educational, fun, entertaining, not recommendation recommendation to be buying or selling any financial instrument including stocks, options, bonds, forex, futures, cryptos, treasuries. Be careful out there. If you want somebody tell you what the buttons to push, you can hire somebody for that spy.

[00:12:44]Open it up here. Coming in hot.

[00:12:48]War is over, right? Deal sign. Going to Pakistan. Everybody's agreed. All good.

[00:12:56]And we'll come back to this and figure out where the options market saying we might hang out today. Now, the cautionary point here, we're still in the danger zone. the danger zone. We'll look at these here in a second.

[00:13:12]We're at the top of the danger zone. And if we close up here today, we could negate the the danger, but danger danger. This also could reverse on us pretty violently here. Take it down. And then so if we break down here, if something for some reason starts turning sour, watch out below.

[00:13:41]If everything's good, there's the target.

[00:13:47]Next upside resistance right there.

[00:13:53]Yes, getting close to the top. This is kind of crazy right here. Look, like we got S&P lagging.

[00:14:04]Cash index lagging.

[00:14:07]ES getting close to breaking out here.

[00:14:12]It's kind of wild.

[00:14:15]We did get a contract roll over though.

[00:14:17]Now on the June um went from that's weird and we went from June to September.

[00:14:29]There we go.

[00:14:36]So there is a contract discrepancy you might say. How would you figure that out? You take those two contracts.

[00:14:44]I look at the futures because futures trade 23 hours a day, six days a week.

[00:14:49]You just type in these two contracts right here. Subtract them off.

[00:14:54]ESU 2026 minus ESM 2026.

[00:15:04]And there's the difference between them.

[00:15:06]64 points.

[00:15:19]That's kind of the the way the contract difference has been. It's actually been growing a little bit. So future there's a little more future value placed on September than there has been.

[00:15:34]You know, it's been floating right around 50 points. Now we're up to 64 points.

[00:15:41]It's a little more optimistic.

[00:15:44]If you look at the constant contract here, ES1 exclamation point, you roll down, you actually get this curve that shows you people are a little more optimistic about the future future futures priced a little like we're going up.

[00:16:02]But is that actually what's going to happen?

[00:16:07]It's INQ.

[00:16:09]Kind of the same deal. If we can hang out here, probably going on higher. I I still think we're out, you know, still think we're on a path to 40,000.

[00:16:21]Russell I I said we're probably going on up 3,100.

[00:16:27]When we tag that, that could be the indicator right there.

[00:16:32]That's been the path since we broke higher all the way back back here last June I was looking for that 2600 then we went up to 2700 then we back tested now 3100 is now the target.

[00:16:56]It's just how long is it going to take?

[00:16:58]Oil flushing on down. If we hang out, if this is all over in the Middle East, deal signed. The deal's done below the road map line. Probably coming back down here.

[00:17:13]Back test the down China highs and we'll see if that holds. If it holds, probably going higher and higher.

[00:17:20]If it if we get below it coming on down maybe lower low than what we had before this whole thing kicked off back here in December.

[00:17:34]Wait, I thought it kicked off in February.

[00:17:37]Some the market already knew something was up right there from December.

[00:17:49]So, watch out for this to break back down. Lower low down around 50, maybe even the mid40s if we're going lower.

[00:17:58]Gold.

[00:18:02]Don't get too excited about gold yet.

[00:18:08]We did go lower low.

[00:18:11]As long as we're under the daily road map line here, then and you know this line right here back back above 4500, you start getting more excited, but cautiously more excited. Back above 5,000 and we're probably going on higher as long as we're staying under 4,500.

[00:18:34]Coming on down further into the zone here.

[00:18:39]still in the in the play.

[00:18:42]Still possible. Now, it's also still possible that that was a whole big correction done.

[00:18:56]Uh let's see. I need to go to a clean chart.

[00:19:06]So it's possible this was one big correction and that was just the beginning.

[00:19:24]So this whole thing can be this this move can be complete and then we can rally back up to here.

[00:19:35]Possibly even as high as here is like the danger zone and then take another spill that this whole thing could take a lot longer too. like we went on a massive rip for several years.

[00:19:58]Started out back here in 2022, rallied up to 2026.

[00:20:05]So, we could mess around here for a little while and possibly end up like a one-year correction before this is all clear.

[00:20:24]And that's the because this didn't flush out as in a good way.

[00:20:32]This thing could just be the first move of a longer consolidation here.

[00:20:40]I mentioned it was probably going to go to into a consolidation because we really got hyped up in here.

[00:20:53]We went way way out of out of whack, if you will. Took a couple trips three standard deviations away from the road map line and we end up paying for that with a long consolidation. Usually, Bitcoin coming back up into the resistance that I've been talking about.

[00:21:17]We're tagging the ideal spot here today.

[00:21:21]Could come back up to the road map line.

[00:21:24]That's possible.

[00:21:26]This is just three waves up so far into the resistance.

[00:21:30]If we make it on up to 70, may it get it could pause or pull back and then add a little extra to it.

[00:21:44]And if we do that, watch out for the resistance once again.

[00:21:50]Probably going down.

[00:21:52]This was lower low. So the direction is down till we start making higher lows and low and higher highs.

[00:22:04]Ether has set up the potential to come all the way down lower low than 2022.

[00:22:17]Doesn't have to, but it it's definitely set up for it.

[00:22:23]dollar pushing back into a little deeper into that resistance zone. Um the gap down was a gap down back here.

[00:22:32]Pushed up through it. Back testing it into it today. If long as we hold it.

[00:22:41]If we don't hold it roadmap line and then that could take us higher.

[00:22:47]Still upward bias on dollar. need to break higher highs.

[00:22:52]Did this take on off?

[00:22:56]And then ENKD pushing on up. Looks like we're going for the 70,000 which we're just almost tagged it today.

[00:23:06]Tag 698.885. So 70,000 and then maybe up to 74 75,000.

[00:23:14]Apple still holding on to the breakouts. It was looking pretty gnarly on Friday there. Long as we keep that above that prior high back here from December. 320 is the upside target.

[00:23:30]Amazon tested the road map line.

[00:23:35]So this is setting up a road map bounce.

[00:23:40]Turn that off.

[00:23:45]If we get back above the 261 area, we're looking for 287, 294, possibly 313 at 307 maybe where we come back up to.

[00:24:00]It may if we can pop back up above that. We look for that a retest that a retest and that be the if we're going higher. That's kind of what we usually see. And this retest could be all the way back here to just typical price action there. Google holding on to the retest so far.

[00:24:29]That's good.

[00:24:32]Good for going higher.

[00:24:34]scary for extending this thing even higher. 418 427 the upside targets and then 566 way up there meta if we can hold on to that break back through the rub method line back through the downtrend highs 1 12200 to 1300 is the upside target Microsoft don't have high hopes here but we did hold a 618 retrace held on to But I think we're going lower or low.

[00:25:12]That's where I think we're going.

[00:25:16]Not betting money on it. It's not high probability. I just That's where I think we're going.

[00:25:22]Nvidia probably needs to hit the road map line.

[00:25:28]Tesla, that was a beautiful three-wave retrace right into support.

[00:25:37]We can break through that resistance.

[00:25:39]Probably cruising on up to 500 if not 600.

[00:25:46]Netflix probably going to retest the bottom.

[00:25:50]And then I pulled gainers, things moving up $2 more. Put them on the gainers list. There were a lot like 300 something. And then I b go pulled decliners, things moving down $2 or more. There were some mostly a lot of short type stuff, a lot of shorts. And then I go pull some setups.

[00:26:11]Well, on Friday, I made a list of setups. These are things with my trend pullback continuation pattern. And in case you don't know the trend pullback continuation pattern, road map line, we're looking for something like this. Price moving up, price coming back, retesting the road map line.

[00:26:31]and then getting a bounce above the 618 and a close. So, you would run a fib line from the high to low.

[00:26:39]Wrong fib line from a high to low. When you get that close above the 618, then we're looking for the high probability pattern from here to here. 75% likely to play out right there. 75% of the time once we close above the 618 get continuation.

[00:27:03]Now that does leave 25% of the time it goes down and hits a level a dollar below the low.

[00:27:12]That's where the stop is. $1 below the low. Doesn't matter the doesn't matter the price. Always a dollar below the low. But that does mean low price stuff like stuff below 20 bucks.

[00:27:26]This dollar below the low gets to be a high percentage.

[00:27:31]It's a big percent.

[00:27:35]So I warn chasing these under 20 bucks.

[00:27:40]It could be a big percentage. Now I bring a list of these that are set up with this potential and I actually bring some statistics on the history of this particular ticker doing the pattern.

[00:27:55]There's the high, there's the low, there's the entry. 4072 is the target.

[00:27:59]The stop would be down at 31.

[00:28:04]And it looks reasonable, but these statistics not so good. 30 is a statistical population. So, this doesn't have a statistical population yet. Still four trades shy.

[00:28:18]But four trades is not going to change this a whole lot right here.

[00:28:25]This is a negative profit vector. Below one, less than one is negative. That means it's a net losser.

[00:28:34]I would probably stay away from this trade.

[00:28:38]BF, there's the high. There's the low.

[00:28:43]There's the entry. 12464 target. Stop down here at 104.

[00:28:48]This one looking a lot better. This is actually running richer.

[00:28:55]Then the average on both of these five trades could bring this down to 75. Could make it below 75. So be careful.

[00:29:08]Nothing's guaranteed, but historical average says 75% of the time this is going to work. And the prof factor 1.2.

[00:29:14]And these are both running a little richer than that. So this one's pretty good.

[00:29:23]BKF.

[00:29:28]There's the high. There's the low.

[00:29:30]There's the entry. 14230 target. Stop down at 122 34. This one's got statistical significance. Has more than 30 trades.

[00:29:43]76. It's right in line with average.

[00:29:46]1.5. Running a little better than the average. Another good one right there. That's got the trend, the pullback, the continuation, and it may go higher than, you know, go higher than the 142 target.

[00:30:06]You don't have to stop there. 70% likely to go to 144.

[00:30:10]KMT another nice uptrend pull back to the road map line continuation entry 228.97 target stop down around 147 no history be careful 100% win rate I mean you can flip a coin nine times and get nine heads that doesn't mean that that coin's always going to get heads so be careful CCBG Here's the high. Here's the low. Entry point 4959.

[00:30:47]Stop is down at 42.

[00:30:50]Running light. Running negative. I would avoid this one. EW high low entry point. This one's already in it from back here.

[00:31:04]So, if you missed it before and you wanted to get on it, it does not have the best numbers.

[00:31:12]8367 is the target and the stop is down at 68.

[00:31:18]HFS, that's kind of choppy.

[00:31:23]All right, that one hit. That one hit, that one stopped.

[00:31:28]You have to make your decision here.

[00:31:31]My algorithm didn't pick up an entry point. Looks like today's close above the 618 would trigger at 330 target HY.

[00:31:43]That one's already in it from back here.

[00:31:45]4258 target. Stop down at 28.

[00:31:49]And not the greatest statistics. Jeff Q.

[00:31:54]Now the problem here is that this is a income stock not a trending stock.

[00:32:03]Got to adjust this one. In the adjusted basis this did not hit the road map line.

[00:32:12]On nonadjusted basis it may just shoot up and hit the target but be very careful here.

[00:32:21]61 62 maybe even up to 63 off the last bounce.

[00:32:29]WTK TYK I would be careful trading any tiger that has more than four letters in it.

[00:32:42]This one's already in it from back here.

[00:32:45]And you're like, "Oh, should have stopped out." Right? This is the lowpriced curse here.

[00:32:51]That dollar below the low gets to be all the way down at 1028.

[00:32:57]This is a large percentage on the that stop all the way down there. It gets to be eight almost 9% extra on the stop for not a lot of extra benefit here. OMC And that's a downtrend. I S PR PRVA already in it from back here.

[00:33:30]That high that low that entry lower price stuff. Be careful. RBA.

[00:33:39]That's Richie Brothers. Richie Brothers Global.

[00:33:44]So yeah, high low looking for 12347. Stop down around 92 reasonable here.

[00:33:58]I bet you this picked up this right here. Actually, I bet you the target's 112.

[00:34:10]I bet it picked up that smaller bounce right there because of this price action under the road map line.

[00:34:17]So, it's actually looking for a 11243 target.

[00:34:23]Easier to get profitable trades. You know, three losses is not going to erode this super bad.

[00:34:32]Probably not going to eat that either.

[00:34:34]4.3 profit factor SPCF.

[00:34:45]There's the high. Here's the low.

[00:34:47]There's the entry. 34. Target. Stop down at 28.

[00:34:53]Reasonable.

[00:34:54]Is it? Look at that. Right on. Like right on historical average. 75. Boom.

[00:35:00]1.9. That's going to be twice the historical average across tens of thousands of trades. So 34 targets stop down here 28 30 reasonable.

[00:35:15]Pretty good looking one right there.

[00:35:16]We've seen lots of banks come up on the last couple weeks.

[00:35:20]This one's already in it from back here.

[00:35:24]Double entry potential.

[00:35:29]It was a secondary bounce.

[00:35:32]A bunch of them will do that like they'll trigger the entry then come bounce again and then shoot on up to the target 4686 stag 4051 target.

[00:35:54]reasonable historical numbers, but they're not significant.

[00:36:01]There's the high. There's the low. That one I would pass TVPH.

[00:36:11]Nice uptrend pullback.

[00:36:15]But you're like, wait a minute, that didn't trigger. And it picked up this little bitty permutation in here.

[00:36:23]And it's low price stuff. A pass for me.

[00:36:27]Town.

[00:36:30]Again, kind of sideways choppy. I'd probably pass.

[00:36:34]Not what I started building this algorithm for.

[00:36:41]BMC kind of pass. Vulcan materials.

[00:36:45]These guys have a large presence in Knoxville here. 31460 target.

[00:36:55]Look at this. When this thing kicks off, this is one that maybe you want to get involved in.

[00:37:03]This stock trends, it pulls back. It can gets continuation 90% of the time with a profit factor of 5.5.

[00:37:14]Out of all the ones on the list, well, which one would I do? This one.4.

[00:37:21]11460 target stopped down here a dollar dollar below the low V low entry 4963 target just kind of in line on the profitable but the profit factor is negative.

[00:37:46]So this one net loses money if it fails.

[00:37:50]Careful.

[00:37:54]I like them that make make me money. Not potentially lose me money more than the risk. And then well another pretty good one here like 78% 2.1. It's almost double the historical average running a little richer than the historical average. And this one's another pretty nice one. Now you may be like, "All right, what duration?" So the average trade plays out in 45 candles.

[00:38:20]Now candles are not candles are trading days, not calendar days. Even though it's a daily chart, you're like 45 days, that's a month and a half. No, 45 candles is actually closer to two months because a weekend is holidays. 65 days.

[00:38:38]Now on top of that, the standard deviation is 35. Now, we can only go down to one candle on the downside.

[00:38:49]So, this is not a bell curve. It's more of a what do you call it? A merch coff curve where it's kind of like this with the long tail.

[00:39:00]Instead of being a bell curve, you know, we have today is the shortest it can be. So, the average is sitting right here and then we have a long tail on this baby. Now, three standard deviations to get the roughly 99th percentile put you out at 150 candles and that's roughly 7 months.

[00:39:23]That means about 1% of the time though, you'll still run out of time.

[00:39:27]With a bunch of these on the list, that can happen more often than it, you know, seems seems possible. But one out of 100.

[00:39:36]So, 7 months if you wanted to cover it with options or just play with shares.

[00:39:41]Shares don't run out of time. And if shares aren't worth it for you, pass.

[00:39:46]You don't have to do it. You can do a uh debit debit spread playing up for the upside or credit spread down here below support.

[00:39:57]So, those are all potential options. I'm not saying that these have options on any of them.

[00:40:03]I checked 4,000 tickers and most of those don't have options.

[00:40:07]As far as other things moving hot today, look at that. Some big numbers in there.

[00:40:21]What was that bigger gainer?

[00:40:24]Yeah. Mu 123.

[00:40:28]Oh no. They're going to split mu.

[00:40:33]Going to split KU. KU too. They're gonna wreck those.

[00:40:41]Wreck those leverage tickers.

[00:40:46]Let's see. SP see how SpaceX is doing today.

[00:40:50]Going for the go.

[00:40:53]As you can see, L spc.

[00:41:15]Boy, that's not confusing at all, is it?

[00:41:17]Let's see. There's your longer and your short right there. So, you want to grab some 2x long SPCH rough. Now, you may be like, "All right, winter options going to be on SPCX, right?

[00:41:39]Tomorrow. Tomorrow's the day they're supposed to be listed right there.

[00:41:46]When you make a trade on one of these, are you buying the stock or not placing options?" That's up to you. Um, most of, you know, most of those stocks won't have options because that's the way the way it is. There's only like 400 really liquid option stocks and really there's only about a hundred that are reasonable to play.

[00:42:11]Most of these won't have options.

[00:42:13]Certainly not liquid options.

[00:42:16]Like when you go look at BMC, there's no options.

[00:42:28]Log into the platform like well only has monthlies now. Could you play out there seven months?

[00:42:44]Maybe there's no volume.

[00:42:48]So to me, that's means there's no options being played.

[00:42:53]You'd be the lone wolf out there trying to take advantage of this.

[00:42:59]BMC, same kind of deal. Like there's no options being played.

[00:43:05]Like they're available, but there's nobody nobody out there playing those. No liquidity.

[00:43:13]That makes it kind of a shares type of play for this one if you're going to take advantage.

[00:43:27]And even the even the close months, there's no nobody playing.

[00:43:35]Open interest.

[00:43:37]There's a few down here, but there's not very much happening.

[00:43:44]Not very much. So, you're going to be in an illquid market, which is not the best place to be playing if you're trying to get a little piece.

[00:43:57]Got a spy.

[00:44:03]Let's see what the gamma market says for today. Do we have any gamma bubble? Do we have anything that might be able to count on reliably spy?

[00:44:17]Full heat map.

[00:44:22]Loading. Loading. Loading. Reasonable.

[00:44:25]We're in the green, but there's some big levels hanging out down here for this Thursday. Remember, this week is special, right?

[00:44:38]FC is on Wednesday.

[00:44:42]Normal what we would consider OPEX Friday is actually on Thursday this week. Tomorrow is the VIX opex.

[00:44:52]Last day to trade VIX for June is tomorrow.

[00:44:58]Right in front of the FOMC on Thursday.

[00:45:04]And then the quad witching or whatever you want to call it is not on Friday this month.

[00:45:11]It's actually on Thursday.

[00:45:13]It's where the quarterlies, the weeklies, the monthlies, the, you know, all the things, even the half a year expires on the 18th.

[00:45:24]This is unique week, so be careful.

[00:45:27]Something might go a little crazy. It's all I'm We saw big crazy this week. This OPEX week in March.

[00:45:36]We could see big crazy. We're sprinkling in the FOMC here. So, we could see with a brand new Fed chair. Pal, you'd be like, well, FOMC has been pretty quiet lately. That was under POW. He that was his goal was to keep it kind of chill and benign. No volatility. Worst doesn't believe in that. He said it publicly. He doesn't believe in telegraphing. He doesn't believe in letting the market know what's up. He thinks that market should just digest what they do. And surprised or not surprised.

[00:46:11]So be careful here. We're seeing inflation hit the highest levels we've had in three years.

[00:46:16]They might actually raise the rate.

[00:46:21]Is the market going to have a bad reaction off of raising the rate?

[00:46:26]Quite possibly. Here's the the current Fed rate there.

[00:46:40]Here's the actual market going rate on the treasuries.

[00:46:46]Fed is behind the curve here.

[00:46:54]I speculated this would happen. I thought it would happen in a faster timeline. Time is always the hardest part of this game.

[00:47:04]Maybe it happens from here and we do chasing rates higher again.

[00:47:13]So, be careful out there.

[00:47:16]This week could be full of fireworks.

[00:47:18]Now, back to trying to predict where we might actually end up today.

[00:47:30]Not cool.

[00:47:35]Let's see if we just look at today's options.

[00:47:41]Big level down there. Big waffle down there. 747 760.

[00:48:05]tight range compared to what we had on Friday.

[00:48:11]All right, jumping over, grabbing the levels.

[00:48:18]Just need today's option expiration if we're going to screw everybody.

[00:48:23]Probably down around 749. Lots of call players, almost no put players. Fear has evaporated on the market today.

[00:48:31]So, we may run this back down to 749.

[00:48:34]Screw the call holders.

[00:48:37]See, if all if if the market stops below all the calls, all those people that bought calls goes to zero. They lose money.

[00:48:48]the cold cruel cold cruel reality of the market. Now, could we just go ripping off? Sure, that's possible. It's possible the uh option market doesn't give a flying lip about it.

[00:49:09]But it's quite possible we come hang out by the end of the day right down in here.

[00:49:14]And be careful because if this rolls, there's nothing really holding the bottom of the box. Like there's no puts.

[00:49:22]So there's no put supports. This could just keep going.

[00:49:34]Just keep going.

[00:49:44]We're in the same kind of boat on the upside here. Danger, danger, danger.

[00:49:52]Like I didn't save anything I drew last week. Beautiful.

[00:50:05]Grab the cues.

[00:50:09]Lower the heat map.

[00:50:17]And we got the big level for the the biggest. There's nobody playing on Q's.

[00:50:22]That's what I thought.

[00:50:26]There's nothing here.

[00:50:29]One level over 100 million.

[00:50:33]That's not this thing is open to drop out. Be careful.

[00:50:48]Everybody's playing for this Thursday.

[00:50:49]Nobody's playing for today.

[00:50:53]that leaves a dangerous hole in the market here that there's no no real options moving this thing around.

[00:51:01]So options have been a big driver for the market for a long time and this so this is going to be really difficult today.

[00:51:11]There's just nobody playing on cues.

[00:51:17]We're going to screw the option holders.

[00:51:19]I mean, so the range I'd probably say just based on this would be 724 and probably 7 50 750 724 and that's basically just calls It's not even counting the puts at all cuz there's hard there's almost none played compared to the call side right now. And if we're going to screw everybody, probably come back down to like 727.

[00:52:05]That's just the guess you could say it's the cynical view of the market here.

[00:52:14]So Spy and QQQ both have kind of downward pressure if we're going to take money from the call players, but there's not much being played out here. So this is kind of thin both ways.

[00:52:33]Be very careful.

[00:52:37]Very careful. This is uh a dangerous environment.

[00:52:46]Highly variable, dangerous environment.

[00:52:47]That's what I would say. All right.

[00:52:53]I'll be a market masters at 11:30 in about an hour and 15 minutes from now.

[00:52:59]I'll be going through income trades trying to find some new ones, new opportunities for this week. And you want to come hang out, links in the description. Otherwise, I'll be back here. Same bad time. same channel tomorrow morning hunting for other opportunities trying to find some stuff.

[00:53:16]I usually do my trades later in the day.

[00:53:19]So, right now I'm just kind of watching the landscape here, setting it up. Now, if you're in anything any of my day trades like triple threats, this thing is not going to find trades right now because of that gap up. We've got to have some sort of pullback.

[00:53:38]And the one we were in from back there on Friday hit closed out this morning.

[00:53:47]We need a pullback and a continuation.

[00:53:52]QQQ that way. SPY that way. IDWM that way.

[00:53:58]IBWM's getting a pullback in a three-way three-wave fashion. So, this one may spark an entry here. Then we see let's see see Apple needs a pullback. Tesla working on a pullback.

[00:54:20]Google working on a pullback.

[00:54:29]Microsoft needs a pullback. They all need pullbacks. So they're not going to fire off anything.

[00:54:39]right now and Netflix looks pretty bad.

[00:54:48]Yeah. So, be careful here. Chasing Netflix, it fires off. It's historical.

[00:54:54]It's not super awesome. I mean, it's in line, but does have a negative profit factor. So, Tesla's been running light.

[00:55:14]Video's been running okay. Microsoft.

[00:55:21]Yeah, been running light. It's in a downtrend. Meta's been in a downtrend.

[00:55:29]Running pretty good though.

[00:55:32]Google's historically one of the better performers here.

[00:55:38]It's been running light recently.

[00:55:49]Amazon's been doing pretty good. Apple has been doing really good.

[00:56:00]Apple been really strong here when it fires off this pattern on the one minute.

[00:56:09]All right, everybody. We'll see you later.