Weather Impact: St. Louis 10-Day Forecast

[00:00:11]Well, a much different night across the bi-state area, even though there was a bit of wildfire smoke coming in behind the cold front today.

[00:00:20]It hasn't been anything that's causing us problems. That is for doggone sure.

[00:00:25]And behind that front lo and behold, temperatures are beginning to cool off and even better, drier air is now starting to press in across the bi-state region. We have dropped back to 79. Our morning low was 82. So, 79 and up until we get to midnight, that'll be our ending up being our low temperature for the day. So, I don't think we're going to have any records going down in the books before all said and done, but it was very sultry this morning as expected, but now that cooler drier air's pushing in. Your stronger storms are settling in towards Nashville at this hour. It's a little after 9:00 here on a Tuesday night. And settling in for us, the drier air. Our dew points dropped to 66. You don't have to go too far. Kirksville, down to 61. 50s for dew points as you get up into central portions of Iowa. That's in the corn belt, too.

[00:01:17]So, that corn sweat not not playing in this one. So, we have the dry air coming in from Canada. I do think tomorrow we're going to look at dew points in the 50s at times. Most of us have seen those dew points that earlier today south and southeast of St. Louis especially in some cases were very close to 80°.

[00:01:35]They have dropped off considerably now that the winds have turned to the northwest and we have that northerly flow. So, on the record books as it stood through 6:00, the low was 82. That was our morning low, again. We will establish the actual low temperature for this day when we turn the clock into actually it'll be 1:00. So, it'll be at 12:59 a.m. daylight saving time because our highs and lows are done on standard time.

[00:02:07]You follow? 90 was the high today, and that's all we could do. In fact, today is probably going to end up in the record books looking like a fairly average day. Little bit of that wildfire smoke filtering in behind the front, not nearly as thick as it was yesterday, and it's not having any impact on us. That's largely because the atmosphere is really mixed up. We have a good breeze that's been going across the area this afternoon. Frequent gusts 20 to 25 mph.

[00:02:35]So, that keeps that smoke mixed up and stirred up, and effectively dilutes the amount of impact it would have for us. Now, it's going to be cooler for the next few days, less humid, light breeze, but the mosquito forecast is still on the high side tomorrow. The breeding cycle that they are on is a fast one. And so, the mosquitoes are multiplying still very quickly. We also had some rain over the weekend.

[00:03:02]And with that, there's still a bit of standing water in some spots where those mosquitoes can breed. Now, it may ease up a little bit, but this weekend, it's going to get hot again. Mold still high.

[00:03:14]That's the big problem on the mold count or on the pollen count allergy numbers for today. Weed pollen is showing up as moderate as well. Interestingly enough, ragweed not showing up just yet on the official count, but my nose tells me that there's ragweed pollen in the air.

[00:03:31]All right.

[00:03:32]We're dropping tonight. Temperatures overnight, a few clouds here and there, but mostly clear to partly cloudy, and we go back into the 60s to start your Wednesday.

[00:03:41]It's going to be a delightful day. We will warm nicely in the morning. There will be some clouds that develop, especially it looks like from the Mississippi River to the east, probably a little extra cloud cover into the mix and I wouldn't rule out a spritz or a sprinkle, but no substantial rainfall expected out of this for tomorrow. Just a really comfortable day. Still a bit of a breeze out of the north, not as gusty as what we saw on Tuesday afternoon. And by the time we get to Wednesday evening, those temperatures start dropping through the 70s, a splendid Wednesday evening across the bi-state area. And that'll set us up for a pretty nice Thursday as well. So, overnight temperatures dropping back into the mid-60s away from town. In town, a little bit warmer, still in the upper 60s, but it's definitely cooler. The winds do settle down some. They're still out of the north and northwest overnight and then more northerly tomorrow. You can expect temperatures to climb back into the lower 80s during the afternoon hours and that should be about it. Some of us won't get to 80 tomorrow, especially north of St. Louis, and we definitely do not have the humidity to deal with tomorrow. So, your heat index values are probably going to be right there with your temperature. Maybe in some cases even a degree below the actual temperature for what it feels like to our skin. All right, we're going into Thursday afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase here Thursday afternoon, Thursday night. We're ahead of another system that's going to kick off some showers, maybe some rumbles of thunder.

[00:05:09]The focus for that seems to be more to the west of St. Louis for the heavier rain.

[00:05:14]And it doesn't look like it's especially heavy at this point, but there'll be some downpours in here. So, there'll be some localized amounts probably that end up with more than an inch of rain between Friday and into Friday night and perhaps early Saturday. That's especially true over parts of mid-Missouri, but we still don't know the exact track of what's going to happen. Some of the models are really lingering this into Saturday morning.

[00:05:39]This happens to be the European model, which is a little slower in getting this out of here. So, we will add in at least a chance for a little bit of rain on Saturday, mainly in the morning, mainly south of St. Louis. Then we turn the tables and we start bringing the warm air back in here. So, Saturday has our high bust potential.

[00:05:59]In other words, the forecast could be really off Saturday. And if the rain lingers longer, obviously, we're not going to have a chance to get to 88° if we can't clear out the skies and become partly cloudy and get those winds out of the south Saturday afternoon. So, that's our conundrum. We still think that the odds favor that at this point.

[00:06:18]Certainly, the next 3 days are very comfortable.

[00:06:21]And then there doesn't seem to be much of a question about Sunday and Monday.

[00:06:25]The upper-level ridge is right on top of us and above-average temperatures can be found by anywhere from 10 to 12° at about 5,000 ft. So, you mix that down to the ground and that gives us high temperatures in the mid perhaps even upper 90s. Saturday, we don't think the heat index is a problem, but Sunday, the potential starts showing up again where we could be looking at those triple-digit heat index values Sunday afternoon and then again on Monday afternoon. So, there is a potential we'll have weather impact alert days coming our way, but we do want to give it at least another couple of cycles here on the models to make sure that we have the handle on this before we put you on notice that there could be a problem. And honestly, at this point, it looks like it might last two or three days where the heat would be, you know, semi-problematic, but our bodies are also a lot more acclimated now to the hot weather. Hot weather is not a problem on Friday at the area lakes, but rain very well could be. In fact, Saturday, there still could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially Table Rock Lake, Carlyle Lake, Rend Lake, maybe Lake of the Ozarks. Sunday, though, it's going to be hot. You'll want to be in the water, which it's almost bath water, that Lake of the Ozarks, 86° for the water temperature there. Your 90-day outlook, now, is in from the Climate Prediction Center for August, September, and October.

[00:07:48]And what it shows is the most likely areas to be warmer than average are along the East Coast, down along the Gulf Coast, and certainly in the Pacific Northwest. Most of us, equal chances, pretty much for the middle part of the country going up the Mississippi River. As far as rainfall opportunities, it appears as though we are equal chances to perhaps slightly above average.

[00:08:11]And we really haven't been lacking for rainfall very often in most cases this summer. Um we haven't had any real prolonged drought problems, for sure. If anything, we've gone the other way and had way too much water. Also, out here with the monsoon flow continuing at least through August, uh you're looking at the potential for that heavier rain.

[00:08:33]A reminder, Cool Down Saint Louis, they still need your help. So, the electric bills, we told the seniors, keep that air conditioning running so that you have a cool, safe spot to be in so that you don't overheat, don't get a heat illness, or worse. And those bills are coming due, and of course, we have some more heat. We're not done with summer yet. cooldownsaintlouis.org, it's where you can go to make an easy online donation. And you can help keep our seniors safe as we navigate a few more hot days coming by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. I think by Wednesday and Thursday, we're closer to 90°, and it won't be overly dramatic as far as the heat and humidity combo goes. And if we don't get much rain on Friday, then we won't be adding as much humidity um because we will start to see the plants stress a little bit in spots, for sure.

[00:09:27]Well, that'll do it for us tonight. A lot of events coming up this weekend, Jefferson County Fair. I think we got soccer Thursday night. Uh cards, I believe, are coming back to town and it looks like uh most of the weekend's going to cooperate, but by Sunday it certainly does get toasty.

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