From NEET Leaks to No Jobs: Why Gen Z Is Modi's Biggest Threat

Ajouté : 2026-05-14

[00:00:00][music] >> Hello and welcome to my YouTube channel, "What Does This Data Say?" I am Ajay Prakash.

[00:00:17]Imagine preparing for an exam for 2 or 3 years, waking up at 4:00 a.m. in the morning every day, missing festivals, birthdays, and family functions, living inside coaching rooms in Kota, Patna, Hyderabad, or Delhi.

[00:00:36]Then one day, you discover that somebody may already have purchased the question paper. Not because you were less talented, not because you did not work hard enough, because the system itself was compromised.

[00:00:54]This is no longer just corruption. It is a psychological destruction at a national scale.

[00:01:02]According to a June 2024 investigation by India Today, India witnessed more than 70 reported exam paper leaks in 7 years, affecting nearly 1.7 [clears throat] crore aspirants across multiple states.

[00:01:22]Railway recruitment, police recruitment, teacher eligibility tests, state public service commissions, and now even NEET.

[00:01:33]The latest NEET controversy again exposed organized leak networks, tracing connections across multiple states.

[00:01:43]But the biggest damage is not administrative.

[00:01:47]It is the message being sent to millions of young Indians. Maybe merit alone is no no enough.

[00:01:56]Once a generation loses faith in fairness, something deeper begins to collapse. Not just trust in exams, trust in the Indian dream itself.

[00:02:10]Millennials entered adulthood during a very different India.

[00:02:15]The 2000s were years of economic optimism. IT companies expanded, BPO jobs boomed, engineering and MBA degrees carried value. Campus placements grew.

[00:02:29]For many middle-class families, education appeared to be a ladder into stability.

[00:02:36]Gen Z inherited a far more competitive India. More students, more degrees, more coaching centers, more entrance exams, but far less certainty.

[00:02:50]According to all-India survey of higher education, India's higher education enrollment rose from 3.42 crore in 2014-15 to 4.33 crore in 2021-22.

[00:03:07]While the gross enrollment ratio reached 28.4%.

[00:03:14]But employment has not kept pace with the aspirations. Government PLFS data says youth unemployment for the 15 to 29 age group declined from 17.8% in 2017-18 to 10.2% in 2023-24 and further to 9.9% in 2024-25.

[00:03:42]That appears encouraging.

[00:03:45]But a significant part of this employment growth has come from self-employment, informal work, gig work, delivery platforms, and family-based employment, not necessarily stable middle-class careers.

[00:04:01]That is why urban youth unemployment still remains high at 13.6%.

[00:04:09]Educated urban youth are not searching for temporary survival work. They want salaried jobs, professional careers, and mobility.

[00:04:20]Azim Premji University State of Working India 2023 found unemployment among graduates under 25 touched 42% even after the post-COVID recovery.

[00:04:35]That number reveals the real wound facing Gen Z. India expanded education far faster than it expanded high-quality opportunities.

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[00:05:09]Thank you very much. In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi triggered a national debate when he argued that even selling pakoras should be considered employment.

[00:05:23]Technically, well, he may be correct. A person selling food, driving a cab, doing delivery work, freelancing, or running a tiny business is counted as employed.

[00:05:36]But Gen Z asks a different question.

[00:05:40]Not is some income being generated, but where are the stable middle-class careers we were promised? PLFS data shows why this anxiety is growing.

[00:05:53]Between 2017-18 and 2024-25, the share of self-employed workers in India rose from 52.2% to 56.8% of the total employment.

[00:06:11]During the same period, the share of regular salaried jobs declined from 22.8% to 20.3%.

[00:06:23]India is increasingly generating work through self-employment, informal work, app-based work, delivery platforms, family businesses, and survival entrepreneurship, not stable salaried careers.

[00:06:40]The gig economy shows this more clearly.

[00:06:43]NITI Aayog projects India's gig workforce to grow from 7.7 million in 2020-21 to 23.5 million by 2029-30.

[00:07:00]On paper, this looks like employment growth.

[00:07:04]But there is a deeper reality.

[00:07:07]Economic survey data shows that nearly 40% of gig workers earn below 15,000 rupees a month. No fixed salary, no pension, no long-term security, no guaranteed health care, no stable middle-class ladder.

[00:07:27]This is why unemployment numbers alone cannot explain the frustration.

[00:07:33]A graduate delivering food on a bike may statistically be counted as employed. A young man helping a family shop may be counted as employed. But, for millions of educated Indians, this is not the future they spent years preparing for.

[00:07:51]The Indian dream was supposed to mean upward mobility. Increasingly, it is becoming a struggle for survival inside an economy where employment exists, but certainty does not exist.

[00:08:08]One of the biggest contradictions facing Gen Z today is this.

[00:08:14]This is perhaps the most nationalistic generation India has seen in decades.

[00:08:20]And yet, millions of young Indians are searching for exit routes. Not because they hate India, because they are searching for predictability, stability, and mobility. For nearly a decade, global migration became part of India's middle class aspiration model. Canada, US, Australia, United Kingdom, Germany, UAE.

[00:08:47]IELTS centers exploded across Indian cities. Foreign education consultants became a massive industry. Entire coaching ecosystems emerged around migration.

[00:09:01]According to OpenDoors 2025, Indian students in the United States rose from about 2 lakhs in 2021-22 to over 3.63 lakhs in 2024-25, making Indians the largest international student group in America.

[00:09:22]But now, the doors are beginning to narrow.

[00:09:26]US State Department data showed that F1 student visas issued to Indians during the peak June-July The season of 2025 collapsed by nearly 69% compared to 2024.

[00:09:45]At the same time, visa rejection rates have surged sharply. Multiple reports in 2026 suggested Indian student visa refusal rates in the US climbed above 60% amid tighter screening.

[00:10:04]Canada introduced caps on international students and tighter post-study work pathway.

[00:10:11]Australia slowed approvals and increased scrutiny.

[00:10:17]Inside India, jobs feel uncertain.

[00:10:20]Outside India, the doors are narrowing.

[00:10:24]India's Gen Z is no longer a small demographic category. It is becoming a political center of gravity. Multiple demographic studies estimate India has roughly 370 to 380 million Gen Z citizens, around 26 to 27% of our population.

[00:10:46]India had 96.88 crore registered voters in 2024, according to the Election Commission. By 2029, almost the entire older Gen Z cohort will be eligible voters. Millions of late Gen Z voters will enter the rolls and Gen Z plus younger millennials could dominate India's electoral base.

[00:11:15]Based on demographic trends and voter expansion, Gen Z voters in 2029 could number around 32 to 40 crores.

[00:11:27]And this is where the danger for Modi and the BJP becomes serious.

[00:11:33]The BJP's original emotional coalition was built around older millennials, aspirational middle class, first-time internet users, anti-corruption anger, and nationalist optimism after 2014.

[00:11:50]But, Gen Z is different.

[00:11:53]This generation grew up inside digital politics.

[00:11:57]They consume information very fast. They switch opinions rapidly. They are less emotionally loyal to parties, and they are far more impatient about jobs, salaries, mobility, and outcomes.

[00:12:14]Nationalism can energize Gen Z temporarily, but if economic frustration keeps rising, the same digital ecosystem that once amplified Modi's popularity can amplify disillusionment just as quickly.

[00:12:33]That is the political risk emerging beneath the surface.

[00:12:38]For a decade, Indian politics was powered by aspiration. Digital India, Startup India, New India, Vishwaguru.

[00:12:47]The promise that India's youngest generation would become the engine of a historic national rise. For a while, millions believed it.

[00:12:59]And that is the real warning sign for Narendra Modi and the BJP.

[00:13:05]Because once the youngest generation loses faith in economic mobility, the political narrative built on aspiration begins to weaken.

[00:13:15]The generation that brought Narendra Modi to power in 2014 was different from today's Gen Z. It carried memories of corruption, scandals, policy paralysis, weak infrastructure, and slower ambition.

[00:13:31]Modi represented disruption, energy, nationalism, and hope. But, Gen Z judges governments differently. They are less ideological, more transactional, less patient, more restless, less loyal, more algorithm-driven.

[00:13:52]If job stability and mobility continue weakening, nationalism alone may not hold this generation emotionally forever.

[00:14:02]And if the BJP mistakes Gen Z for the same voter base that created the Modi wave a decade ago, it could become a political error with long-term consequences.

[00:14:15]Thank you for watching. I'm M.

[00:14:17]Jayaprakash.