Forecast Discussion - May 6, 2026 - Significant Severe Weather Targets the Southeast

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Hey everybody, Trey here. Welcome back to another video. Back with another severe weather setup for today. This time we have a level three out of five enhanced risk across parts of the southeast. This has been upgraded from yesterday's video. Yesterday morning it was a slight risk, but we have seen a corridor of potentially higherend severe potential in that orange shaded region.

[00:00:20]So that's going to stretch from eastern Louisiana into much of the central corridor of Mississippi including Jackson over into western and central Alabama. Tuscaloosa and Birmingham in that level three out of five risk in the orange shaded region there. Large level two out of five slight risk in the yellow shaded region there. We do have a separate slight risk there in kind of south central Texas. That is for a pair of ongoing supercells this morning.

[00:00:43]Those should wayne in intensity with time. And the main severe threat expected to take place in the the larger yellow and orange shaded region for today. All hazards are on the table. The reason for the enhanced risk upgrade was the increase in confidence in tornado potential across that corridor. We now have a 10% risk area stretching across that enhanced risk corridor from eastern Louisiana through central Mississippi and western and central Alabama with a large 2 and 5% area surrounding that.

[00:01:11]This is also accompanied by an intensity level two in the hatched region there that stretches across parts of the two the entirety of the five and 10% areas and that includes the threat for a few strong tornadoes today. Potential reasonable max intensity for any tornadoes that occur in that corridor is expected to be EF2. As always doesn't mean we can't get stronger tornadoes in that hatched area. Doesn't mean all the tornadoes in that hatched area have to be EF2 to allow that to verify. It just means that any tornado that occurs in that region could be strong today. It's all going to depend on how storms evolve today, how long we can maintain discrete supercells, but if we can, that strong tornado threat will be on the table.

[00:01:52]We'll get into that here in just a bit.

[00:01:54]Damaging wind and large to very large hail are threats today. Potentially some 2-in in diameter hailstones from eastern Texas all the way through northern and central Louisiana and central and north central Mississippi.

[00:02:06]So, an active day on tap. This is going to really be the last robust day of this multi-day sequence. Maybe a low-end threat tomorrow as the cold front pushes down into the Gulf Coast. We have a level one out of five marginal risk across the Gulf Coast states for tomorrow. And then we should be done with at least widespread severe weather for a few days before we may see a return uh at some point in the future, maybe next week uh into the following week as we head into the middle and latter portion of May. focusing in this video on today's threat as it is quite potent there across the southeast. Let's take a look at what's going on as we speak. This is the current radar imagery right now. We have a complex of storms moving across the uh kind of mids south into southeast Arkansas all the way into Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia.

[00:02:53]These are going going to quickly move out as you see on the radar right now.

[00:02:57]They will quickly move off to the east.

[00:02:59]And we don't really have much going on in the warm sector. just some weak showers there across southern Mississippi at this point and that is a positive for severe weather today and that we're not seeing a lot of convection in the open warm sector at this time. Uh keeping the warm sector kind of free and clear of convection to maximize the ingredients later on today.

[00:03:19]Like what we saw yesterday though, our severe weather threat did not materialize at all across that Arkansas northeast Texas corridor. And that that is in part due to a lot of cloud cover lingering throughout the day. We never really saw a lot of clearing, especially especially across Arkansas. And we still see a lot of cloud cover across the open warm sector today. You can see the kind of outflow boundary from the morning convection here sort of uh combined with the frontal zone. We'll take a look at the surface obs more closely here in just a second, but that outflow from the morning convection uh kind of reinforcing the front across northern Mississippi, far southern Arkansas into northern Alabama this morning. And that front is going to kind of stall out throughout the day. maybe maybe sag very slowly southward through the afternoon, but it's going to keep the warm sector quite broad from Texas all the way through the Gulf Coast states south of that frontal zone leading to lots of real estate for warm sector storms to develop. But you do see we have quite a bit of cloud cover in the open warm sector at this point. Lots of that lowle cloud cover uh maintaining itself across the warm sector and we'll have to see how that plays out through the afternoon. And if we do get some breaks in the clouds, then we would see that instability maximized and the threat for more robust supercells may develop. If those clouds stick around, that may be tempered somewhat. We'll just have to kind of watch and see how that plays out. We do see some breaks back here into Louisiana, uh, some to the south of that outflow across north central Mississippi and Alabama. So, there are some breaks in the clouds, but these are pretty thick, lowle clouds. So, we're going to have to see how that plays out going into the afternoon. Here is our upper air data. This is the 500 mibar map from the SPC mezo analysis page. And just like yesterday, we're just kind of entrenched in this broad west southwesterly flow out across this region. Our main trough is still sitting well back to the west here. It's a broad longwave trough um with a very positive tilt nature to it, stretching all the way from kind of east central Canada all the way down into the kind of Baja California area there. So way off to the west and we're just going to kind of maintain this broad west southwesterly flow through the day and not really see much change in the geopotential height contours here. We're going to see fairly neutral height tendencies throughout the day. And that is going to lend some questions into our synoptic scale forcing for ascent. Like yesterday's setup, we just didn't have a very robust short wave or anything any type of trough moving through the area to really help with synoptic scale forcing for ascent. We're relying solely on our surface boundaries, strong surface heating and warm invection in the warm sector as well as confluence bands to get the job done. Most of our convection today will be relegated to that frontal zone. And things should get pretty messy along that frontal zone with our mid-level flow parallel to that boundary. But in the warm sector, that's where we're watching for discrete supercell development well south of that boundary across south central Mississippi, eastern Louisiana into kind of west central Alabama. south of that boundary. That is where we're watching for discrete supercell development today. Now, I do have some questions about how much uh supercell coverage we will see in the warm sector because again, we're relying solely on that warm invection and and subtle confluence bands to get the job done. Most of the time, your really robust discrete supercell events in the open worm sector like an April 27th, 2011 for example. Of course, that's a high-end example, but you know, we had tons of supercells in a discrete fashion in the open warm sector. Usually, those are going to have some sort of short wave traversing the warm sector, at least giving a glancing blow to the warm sector to help those supercells mature and sustain themselves. We don't really have that today. Just going to kind of maintain this broad southwesterly flow, very neutral height tendencies. And so, that is lending some question over how much coverage we will see in the open warm sector. The environment in the warm sector will certainly be favorable for supercells. The question is how much how many supercells do we get to go? How long will they maintain a discrete mode and will they actually sustain themselves to be able to produce strong tornadoes later on? Those are the main questions today with that activity along the front. That should not be a concern um as we'll have stronger surface convergence along that front and storms will will be forced up along it. Should get kind of messy along that frontal zone through the afternoon with a lot of storms interacting with one another along that front.

[00:07:34]Down at the surface here, we don't have a very tight surface pattern as well.

[00:07:37]Maybe a weak surface low here in that kind of southwest Arkansas, northeast Texas corridor, northwest Louisiana corridor. But overall, just a very lowend sort of somewhat disorganized uh surface pattern here. Surface low all the way up in eastern Canada. Cold front stretching all the way down into the southeast from that down into, as we said earlier, northern Mississippi, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, back into Texas today, at least at this point. And that should somewhat stall out this afternoon, maybe slowly sag southward, but it's going to keep the warm sector free and clear uh well uh to its south today. You're going to have a broad warm sector to its south and not really um crash the party, so to speak, um as in some of these cold front events.

[00:08:20]Looking at our lowle jet, uh we we have somewhat of a lowle jet maintaining itself across the region out of the west southwest. 30 to maybe 40 knots of flow across the um the east coast states all the way down into the southeast. That should maintain itself today as that weak surface flow uh persists out across that uh corridor to the to the west. Uh we should see some semblance of lowle jet maintaining itself through the day allowing for those large loop photographs to support strong tornadoes in this setup. Here is our surface observation map this morning and you can pinpoint exactly where our cold front is. So you can see a clear windshift here. Northerly winds across much of the plains, Arkansas into western Tennessee and Kentucky. Much more southerntherly flow out ahead of that across the Gulf Coast states. So a clear wind shift here. So we'll place that frontal zone right through the windshift right in here stretching back into Texas like so.

[00:09:16]So that is our cold front today. And as you can see to the south of it, very broad, juicy warm sector. Due points in the low to mid70s out across East Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi into Alabama.

[00:09:28]That's going to be very prevalent throughout the day. Very, very moist, warm sector today. And that may be a tendency give us a tendency for storms to be higher precipitation in nature as that moisture does extend well up off the surface as you'll see in some soundings here in just a second. But very juicy air mass south of that front leading to a broad uh broad warm sector and a longer duration threat for severe storms as we go through the uh the afternoon today into the evening uh tonight.

[00:09:55]Here is our Jackson, Mississippi sounding from this morning. And as you can see, very deep moisture extending up above 850 millibars off the surface. 70 over 68 at the surface. Very, very deep moisture. Precipitable water values about 1 and a half in. that's already pretty high and we're expected to see that continue to increase going into the afternoon as that warm moistuction continues. As this cap kind of erodess through the day, uh we will maintain some of this cap. This is one of my uh boxes that I always like to see checked for a southeast event is we have a robust capping inversion and some semblance of an elevated mix layer or at least steeper lapse rates of loft here.

[00:10:30]And we do see that this little layer here about 8 8 degrees Celsius per kilometer lapse rates just above 700 millibars. Some semblance of perhaps a remnant elevated mix layer with a stout capping inversion at its base, but that should hold things off through the afternoon. And models are showing that that capping inversion may persist through the afternoon in somewhat of a weak capacity and that may keep the warm sector kind of somewhat uncluttered and allow for a more discrete supercell mode. Again, it's kind of a double-edged sword because of the weak forcing today.

[00:11:00]Do we have enough forcing from the warm invection and confluence bands to overcome that capping inversion and really allow for robust sustained supercells to persist? That is a question today. But overall, our thermodynamic environment is isn't too bad for a southeast setup if you're looking for robust severe weather. But uh that precipitable water value is expected to increase through the afternoon. very wet storms, very rainheavy storms. Uh and that could allow for a uh kind of cluttered sort of classic southeast type of storm evolution today with more high precipitation supercells. Kinematically looks pretty good here. Uh some low-level shear curvature in the low levels of the photograph uh with strong deep layer shear 0 to 6 km shear approaching 60 knots. So again, that should persist through the afternoon and we should have a thermodynamic and kinematic combination favorable for robust severe storms. Um, it's just a question of forcing. How many will form away from that frontal zone and will they be able to persist with that subtle capping inversion and weak forcing for ascent? Remains to be seen. All right, let's take a look at some model data here. This is the 12Z NAM hot off the press coming in as we're recording this video right around 9:00 a.m. Central Daylight Time today. Starting at 500 millibars as initialized looking pretty good here. Our long kind of combined longwave trough here very positively tilted trough is sort of the result of two different troughs. We've had this trough across eastern Canada into the northeastern US for quite some time and then this secondary trough back to the southwest over the western US. These two are kind of phasing together into one very positively tilted longwave trough.

[00:12:35]And as that is occurring, the the we're kind of combining into one larger jet streak here stretching from the southern plains into the Ohio Valley region as those two troughs kind of phase together. And that will continue through the day today. But as you see, not much change in the overall geopotential heights across the southeast. Very neutral height tendencies across that corridor. And that is again lending some concern into the overall coverage of storms, especially away from our surface boundaries today. Not a ton in the way of synoptic forcing for ascent in this particular scenario. So that is one of the questions with today's setup, especially away from the boundaries. How much storm coverage do we have given the tendency for very neutral heights and not really any short waves coming through to help us out in the open warm sector? Going down to the surface, uh let's go ahead and zoom into our southeast sector here and see how that cold front is expected expected to progress. So you see it clearly right here, that gradient in temperatures across the mids south and down into East Texas that will again continue to kind of sit there through the day, maybe start to sag slowly southward through the afternoon. Uh the NAM has it kind of sagging pretty fast here going into the afternoon. Some of our other models not quite as aggressive with the u progression of the front down to the south. You see the GFS does kind of keep it off to the north a little bit longer compared to the NAM and then it does kind of sag into the southeastern states toward the Gulf Coast going into tomorrow morning. The NAM does tend to do pretty well with these uh cold fronts and the cold air intrusions um associated with them. Uh here is the 12Z NAM once again and you see it does kind of sag pretty fast but not overall too bad. We should see still a broad warm section to its south across the Gulf Coast states, Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama, especially with eastward extent. You see the front sort of um is draped off more to the northeast rather than more of the east northeast going into eastern Mississippi and Alabama. So that warm sector should remain fairly broad especially with eastward extent today um allowing for a a long duration broad brushed severe threat across that region. Here is our Dupoint map. So you see very very rich moisture in that warm sector south of the front. Those 70s due points very very prevalent across this region. Due points approaching the mid70s here. Some 75 degree due points out across East Texas and Louisiana and approaching that value in southern Mississippi. So a very very juicy air mass. Things should get going fairly early in this event with that warm invection ongoing. Um it all kind of depends on that cap we saw earlier. How quickly does it erode? Um and uh how strong is that warm warm invection to help overcome that? Um but all indications are by early afternoon we should have storm development out across these corridors of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi and perhaps uh western Alabama could see supercell development in the warm sector as early as that. Let's take a sounding here in our open warm sector just southwest of the Jackson Mississippi area. This is at 18Z. We'll take one again here. Try to find an an unsullied sounding at 21Z.

[00:15:37]So, here's 18Z. Early on, we have a decent instability. That cap is sort of still eroding. Weaker low-level lapse rates here. Not quite as um saturated as I expected in the low levels. Little bit of slightly drier air there in the low levels. A lot of our forecast soundings from previous days were showing a very saturated air mass in the low levels.

[00:15:57]That kind of takes place with time here.

[00:16:01]So, still some fairly steep lapse rates a loft there. Approaching 8° C per kilometer. is decent for a southeast event, but very limited low-level lapse rates you see there. Much more vertical uh sort of lapse rates in that profile.

[00:16:13]0 to 3 km lapse rates, sub6° C per kilometer. Not a great thing for really robust updrafts. Kinematically, we do have some turning in the low levels of the atmosphere with strong deep layer shear. By no means is this a classic Dixie uh alley kinematic setup where you have those just huge huge photographs.

[00:16:32]Um that is not the case today. somewhat more truncated low-level photographs, but enough uh low-level shear to support a significant tornado risk today. Um as well as a large hail risk with with those steep laps rates aloft. So um going in towards zero Z, we should have things start to congeal into a line as that cold front pushes south a little bit harder uh and the warm sector supercells uh mesh with that line.

[00:16:55]Things should get messier as we go into the evening. And there you see convective contamination out across that corridor. We'll take try to take a sounding there at zero Z away from the convectively contaminated corridor. And so you see we maintain nice instability and a decent low-level shear with strong deep layer shear. So supercell certainly in the cards today for any storms that develop in the warm sector. Uh and we could have some QLCS tornadoes within the line. Although the orientation of the line with respect to the low-level shear vectors may not be all that favorable for QLCS tornatic circulations. So tornado threat may be maximized with any supercells that develop in the open warm sector. So that should last through the early evening before things kind of take over. The cold front takes over congeals things into a line. Then we go into tomorrow morning and afternoon. Some warm sector left there across the far southeast states Florida panhandle into South Carolina. Um that should maintain that uh se low low and severe weather threat there out across that corridor.

[00:17:50]Here's our storm net probabilities for today. the tornado risk probabilities.

[00:17:55]So, as we go into the afternoon, you start to see them pick up by early afternoon, 1 to 2 p.m., we start to see broad brush, low-end probabilities there across southern uh Mississippi. Then, they start to increase going into the afternoon. They maximize sort of just southeast of the Jackson area and move southeast toward sort of Laurel and Hattisburg there. Um, still low-end probabilities, sub 25% there in the blue colors, but we do have a signal there moving into western Alabama with time uh for a few tornadoes there um maximizing in the mid to late afternoon hours and into the early evening as the storms progress off to the southeast and east uh with time. Speaking of that, let's look at some convection allowing model data. Here is our 12Z her run from this morning. Going to try to give us a picture of what things might look like later on. So, here we are. That ongoing convection to the north will move off to the east very quickly today. And you start to see these beans in the warm sector by about 18 to 19Z really become robust across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. This is a fairly robust picture, especially uh for the HER. Um tends to kind of struggle with warm sector convections, but very interesting. It's showing some quite robust supercells all across the warm sector here. And I I'm still a little skeptical because of the tendency for these events with limited forcing over the warm sector to be either less in coverage over the warm sector or supercells don't really sustain themselves and really reach their ceiling without that forcing for a scent. But the herd does have quite a few supercells over the warm sector and they would have that large hail and damaging wind risk along with that strong tornado risk uh especially if they persist for quite some time before things kind of congeal into a line as you see uh going into the evening hours uh today. So storms fire fairly early uh by about midday to early afternoon and then get really going as they go into southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama uh with time across that corridor. So that would certainly be a higherend scenario here um as the low-level shear would would support that significant tornado risk with those supercells. Here's a proximity sounding to one of those supercells and a little bit contaminated but strong instability.

[00:20:02]Uh decent low-level shear and strong deep layer shear to support supercells.

[00:20:05]So um that would uh allow things to be somewhat nasty in the warm sector uh today. Uh let's see some of our other models here. The NSSL WORF is out uh that far. So let's go ahead and take a look. Can you see those beans kind of um increase in intensity by early uh mid early to midafter afternoon? This is at 3 p.m. Lots of those beans in the warm sector. So, multiple models showing those warm sector supercells out across this corridor, even into southeast Louisiana. We could see those supercells persist and and we do see quite a duration here for those supercells to persist before things get really really messy this evening. So, definitely a concerning look for today out across the warm sector. ARW's not quite super far out yet, but we can at least see into the late afternoon hours. And it kind of the same thing, 19 to 20Z, those supercells really maximize across this corridor of south central Mississippi into southwest Alabama for quite some time. Um, and so very concerning look here for today. Uh, just south of that Jackson area looks to be where the spot is for those supercells to really intensify going into the mid to late afternoon hours today. So, multiple models showing discrete supercells in the same kind of corridor. Uh, that is a concerning look with the profiles in place today.

[00:21:19]So, that's going to wrap things up for this video. Again, an a potent day on tap. They did mention a potential upgrade to moderate risk at some point today. Doesn't look super super likely at this point, I think, given the uncertainties and storm evolution. Um, but and I wouldn't be surprised to see this enhanced risk shifted a little bit farther south with time. At least the overall severe problems shifted south with time, at least expanded south with time. But for now, this is what we have going on. Level three out of five enhanced risk in the orange shaded region here. So, eastern Louisiana, central to south south central Mississippi into western and central Alabama, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Jackson, Mississippi, uh over toward eastern Louisiana, you are in that level three out of five risk for now. Again, we could see southward extensions in subsequent outlooks. large level two out of five risk extending all the way back into east central Texas, Waco and Lufkin over towards Shrefport and Alexandria and then off to the east Atlanta and Columbus, Georgia in that level two out of five risk could see robust storms all the way back to the west um into Texas.

[00:22:20]Those will be away from the greatest low-level jet. So more of a large hail and damaging wind risk there. Tornado risk should maximize here across the southeast states today. Um, and as you see, that is what we have going on. That five and 10% risk from Louisiana eastward into Alabama and Georgia, uh, with that SIG one hatching. So, strong tornadoes on the table for today.

[00:22:39]Greatest coverage of tornatic supercells expected to be in that yellow shaded region there. Damaging wind and large to very large hail expected to be a threat as well with today's setup. So, all hazards on the table for today. Things can get pretty nasty this afternoon.

[00:22:54]going to be difficult to chase because of the high precipitation nature of these storms and perhaps somewhat of a messy evolution. But multiple models are showing discrete supercells across the enhanced risk corridor and maybe just south of there um which could produce that all hazards risk including the threat for strong tornadoes going into this afternoon. So with that, thanks for watching and we'll see you next