Is $60,000 the Bottom for Bitcoin? | REKT Vision w/ OSF

Añadido: 2026-06-06

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[00:03:54]Happy Friday everyone. Welcome back to Rect Vision. I'm Bjan Mleki and today we are joined again by OSF. Thanks for joining us Obie. Happy Friday. How are you?

[00:04:07]>> Yeah, not bad. Not so happy Friday, but we're doing well as is tradition every time I'm on the show apparently.

[00:04:14]you know, just trying to find some positives in it, you know, but uh quick note to everyone before we get into today's show. I mean, we've got a lot to talk about. I mean, if you've looked at your portfolio, you'll know we have a lot to discuss. But before we get into it, our RV analysts have been dropping their playbooks. Uh it's their actual frameworks on how they navigate the market. So whether we go up or whether we go down, whether you're bullish or bearish or just trying to figure out what's going on, check it out because they drop a playbook to help you whether the market's up or down. So head on over to realvision.com. Andreas's just dropped yesterday. Jamie's is dropping today. So check that out. So OV, I mean, I guess let's just start with it right there. Obviously Zcash top story, but I want to start with Bitcoin and just kind of see where your head's at uh with it because, you know, we're we're kind of at that 60K level, which I think is like a psychological level, if you will, but I just want to What do you think about this? Is this is that resistance? Is it support? What are what are we looking at from here in your in your take?

[00:05:18]>> Yeah, I mean, Bitcoin and crypto overall is is just in a very tough spot at the moment, isn't it? like and it's not just one factor. I think it's a a multitude of factors. You have sailor um the strategy press which have come under pressure. You know they've they've dropped below par. I think they're trading at uh 92. Wow. They're trading at 92 today. Um and you know there's a massive dividend cash obligation that he has on that annually which was I think known at the start. Um the way they planned to fund it was to keep selling more equity as Bitcoin rises and then you know fund their dividend payments that way. Obviously Bitcoin's been weak and they've been the only big buyer in the market. So in order to fund those obligations they have had to sell Bitcoin which is kind of crazy. Um I think my guess is I know they made that initial sale of $2.5 million. Uh my guess is they've sold quite a bit more than that this week, which has led the decline. Um I think there are some rumors out there that maybe sold one to2 billion worth. I don't I don't know. I guess we'll see it when it's reported, but um my guess is they've sold decent amount um in order to fund a certain amount of runway of these dividend obligations. Now, if that covers a year, two years, and there's an argument to say there's um you know, I mean, not that it's bullish, but there's an argument to say that at least he's done selling. But the problem is everyone else realizes this is a business model that you know is very challenging. It's not it's not going to work unless there is another buyer of Bitcoin who is not Michael Sailor. And >> so that brings us to the second question which is like, well, who is the marginal buyer of Bitcoin here? Um, we all own it.

[00:07:17]Everyone in crypto who owns it already owns it and they've been crushed. So, there isn't really like additional crypto demand. The ETFs have seen outflows. And the problem with the ETFs and that tradey bid, so to speak, is that's chasing all the AI stuff, right?

[00:07:31]Like all the AI stuff, AI stocks are up 10x in some cases over the last year.

[00:07:38]And I think as we can all appreciate the AI bubble if you like is showing no signs of slowing right the demand for um AI is only going to continue to grow which will feed down to the hyperscalers will feed down to the memory guys it will just feed down through to everyone. So, you know, with AI, like sure stuff like um uh Micron has has had an insane run and maybe has drew a pullback, but there's a level where people are like, well, I'm just going to buy this cuz it looks crazy cheap on a like forward price earnings ratio. So I think um you know it's just like when all that stuff is going on it's really hard I think for people to be like you know let me buy Bitcoin with no catalyst other than the four cycle and it always comes back which is kind of like the only argument for Bitcoin right now. Um, and to take that a step further, the other big concern is obviously quantum computing, quantum resistance, and when you have an exploit like you did with Zcash, um, which was uncovered in the last 24 hours, um, or at least publicized in the last 24 hours. I'm sure people knew about it before.

[00:08:48]um you realize this continued advancement of AI is is a is a big threat to crypto and we're sort of now even seeing it play out in real time and yes it's just to find a narrative for crypto right now is really tough. Now history will tell you when it's lost all narrative and everyone feels like they're going to give up that's always the time to buy and always the time to average down and it always comes back and I generally do agree with that. Um, but I have to say, you know, it's it's really hard to defend it. It's really hard to defend crypto with everything that's happened, I think, in the last month.

[00:09:25]>> Um, you know, at risk of sounding like I'm bearish on crypto at the lows. And I'm defin I'm definitely not bearish on crypto. Like, I think things always come back, but it's going to take a while for people to have confidence to do it. Now, you know, you you could just see Bitcoin wells get together and start to pump it up, etc., etc. And um, you know, the tech and the narrative always looked awful at low prices and always looks much better at higher prices. And who knows, none of us are really tech experts, right? Like the next thing you know there's some real solution for quantum resistance and then suddenly that changes the entire narrative, right? So there's always the thing about good news and bad news and low prices and high prices is there is some probability that we will have some good news in the future and the prices will be a lot higher but we don't know what that is right now and there aren't we don't see the signs of it but as soon as you do see the signs of it it gets priced in very quickly. So um yeah it's just it's a real tough one. It's it's tough for crypto at least. It's just been a very very tough market to invest in and trade. And um if I had to guess, I would guess, you know, I'm I'm not saying this with any conviction, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin falls even lower from where it is now. And I think it's going to take I think prior to Zcash and all that kind of stuff. I really felt like Bitcoin had bottomed and um you know it would still be a long road to alltime highs but you know we we would start the rally according to the four-year cycle and you know we we were a bit beginning to enter the accumulation phase and then next year um we would maybe start to see some positive price action. But you know it feels like there needs to be more of a a clear out in it I think. Um, but I don't know. I mean, how can how can sentiment get any lower than this?

[00:11:18]It's stone cold bottom for sentiment, right? So, yeah, I think I saw it was at 12 uh as of this morning or last time I checked. Could have dipped even lower.

[00:11:29]Uh, I think our producers are bringing that up right now, but Pomp was uh I liter I was watching Pomp, it's up to 16 now. I was watching Pomp yesterday and he was talking about I think it was what in 2022 it was in the single digits even. though, which is, you know, crazy to think that we're lower than than where we are today. But I want to ask you about the AI trade cuz >> yeah, >> it is moving kind of like we're accustomed to seeing alts moving. Like I've people are saying the alt season is happening. It's just in AI, not in not in crypto. But I wanted to like at at some point I feel like AI's been running so much. People have, you know, seen such incredible gains on like these microns plays and and some of these memory plays. At some point they're going to have to take profits on these trades I would imagine. Do you see that rotating those profits being taken into crypto? Like how do you see that like scenario?

[00:12:20]I just think the look there's obviously been a lot of capital that's left crypto to chase AI stuff. And ironically what hasn't helped is um the um ironically what hasn't helped is the introduction of hyperlquid and the ability to trade stocks in crypto. So people who um uh people who trade crypto and previously didn't want to trade stocks because there was too much of a hurdle to move capital out of crypto into stocks. now I can just do it with the crypto on on on on Hyperlquid. So I think um whether that capital comes back within the crypto space it can do very easily.

[00:13:05]You know if you've made a if you've made a 10x or 20x in AI and then Bitcoin at the same time and simultaneously dropped 50%. I find it very hard to imagine if you're a crypto person you're not tempted to buy and and start accumulating. Right? But the thing is when at what point do you do that? Which thing has the momentum? which thing has lost the momentum and I still think there's a lot of momentum to the AI AI stuff because we all know you know anyone who's spent a bit of time using Claude or or you know the advanced chat GPT features and and AI you know and we've spoken about this many times on the show as well like it's just the advancements are insane and the advancements are becoming are increasing at a you know a level that's exponential so um that demand is only going to go up that demand is only going to go up substantially and it's just a question of if the you know suppliers of of various pieces of infrastructure for it can keep up with that and you know whether they mess it up and overproduce etc. I just think like you know there's a lot of to the stuff that's rallied especially the memory stuff you know stuff like Micron SanDisk um South Korean things like Samsung SK highix like >> these are very historically have been very cyclical stocks and historically when their forward price earnings ratios are low which they are now you know they screen cheap it usually marks the top of their kind of cycle and you know that makes sense but the question is where you know, are we, if you think about in the context of AI, is that a what is what we're seeing part of a cycle or is what we're seeing part of a paradigm shift? And >> I I find it, you know, most people think it's the latter and not the former. And so I think people just believe there's even despite the move this year, maybe that's why the move has been so aggressive, I think people feel like there's more of that to run. And it's almost like people are scared to sell it and move into crypto. scared to sell it alone. So, we would need to we really need to have a strong fundamental reason for for crypto to um to get some of that capital back I think from from equities.

[00:15:19]What do you see that not to put you on the spot? What do you see that reason potentially being like what could that like I guess make people excited again to go back into crypto? What would be that you know that reasoning?

[00:15:31]>> I think um there's a couple of things.

[00:15:34]Number one, Clarity Act. Everyone's familiar with it now and people, you know, the fact that it's taken so long, the fact that it's see, you know, it passing this month or in the first half of the year, which is the same as this month, um that probability seems to be decreasing and people seem to um be less optimistic on it, which ironically is a good thing because it means maybe it's not priced in.

[00:15:59]>> Um so that's one thing that could be a turning point. Second thing and there's been some I've seen some you know media on this is the bit strategic reserve for the US which is you know if the US ever starts buying Bitcoin I think that's a really big thing. I think it's I think it's a really really big thing and I think if they do it in any meaningful size it's you know impossible to see to not see lots of people buy on the back of that. Like to me that's big enough for it to change the momentum and you know the US already owns tons of Bitcoin right they're like the third or fourth largest holder of it um so if they start buying everyone else starts buying that's just their position increasing anyway so it's in their interest to do it so I think um these are two things that I can think of in the near future that are possible and probable even in some cases you can argue with within the next 6 months like clarity of act within the next six months. I I would certainly hope so strategic reserve I don't know but um like these things are are not out of the window and I think that could really change the momentum of crypto but there's probably something else that I can't think of that I'm not mentioning that is not on everyone's radars um whether that's quantum resistance being solved for who knows like you know these things just come out of thin air and then suddenly the price goes up and then suddenly that narrative seems stronger and everything else seems stronger. So, um, you know, to my earlier point, you don't always know what the good news is, and it's almost like sometimes you just have to buy on the bad news. And >> hope is not a strategy, but, you know, hope there's some good news on the way.

[00:17:38]So, >> well said. I want to I want to come back to the micro strategy thing because one thing I've been seeing pop up on the timeline and in the real vision discord as well, right? because they they they publicly sold 32 bitcoin and you know they could have done more that we don't know about like you said but we we'll find that out but they are sitting on unrealized loss right now of nearly $12 billion which is their biggest in history and the question I am seeing all over is is this an FTX level disaster waiting to happen I'm sure people are just going crazy you know exaggerating but like what's your kind of take to that uh to that question >> for >> for micro strategy.

[00:18:21]>> For micro strategy.

[00:18:22]>> Yeah.

[00:18:24]>> Look, the the main issue and I think the main criticism of Micro Strategy this year was the press that they they brought to the market and this crazy dividend annual dividend obligation they would have. And you know, when you looked at it two or three months ago, it was like, you know, how are they going to possibly pay this stuff? The only way to pay it is through raising equity. Um, that didn't work. So what they can do is then sell Bitcoin to fund it, which is what they've done. So um I don't think it's quite like FTX scale because um you know unless Bitcoin really really implodes.

[00:19:03]Um I don't I don't I don't fully understand I don't think they have like a specific liquidation level where they're like, "Oh, you know, we're screwed." And they've already sold some Bitcoin, right? They've already sold some Bitcoin to fund these payments. So, you know, they have the ability to sell more in the future as well. And so, I don't think it's like going to necessarily be an FTX level spectacular blow up, but you know, there's an argument to say it sort of already has been, right? Just think of how much lower we've moved since the highs. Think about how much it's been micro strategy and, you know, they've just taken even more risk at a point when the market was quite precarious.

[00:19:40]So, um, we sort of have seen that move.

[00:19:42]Now it's just a question of you know who else wants to sell as a result of it and and how we move on from it basically.

[00:19:48]But um what what's more what I think is more on par with FTX is actually what happened with Zcash because >> when FTX when what happened with FTX happened I think people were like you know this is over for crypto right like how can we keep our money on exchanges? How can we trust anything? But then the argument was like, well, just don't have your money in crypto. Keep it um, you know, keep it self- custody. So, don't have your money in um uh exchanges. Yeah. Self-custody it and you can move on from it. And so, there was sort of like a a path out. But for for this, you know, definitely um for for Zcash and AI posing almost what feels like an ex existential threat to crypto to to to self custody, you know, if you have money in an old style Bitcoin wallet and it's like, you know, that could be at risk. That that means they the original Satoshi wallet is at risk, right? What happens if if those funds start to move? It's just it's over. So, I think that for me is a bigger concern. It's just a case of like how the rest of the world thinks and feels about it. But that to me, the worrying thing for me is like that. I don't know, maybe I'm just in the feel like I'm in the thick of it right now cuz of all the price action, but that to me feels I feel more concerned by that than I did for FTX. When FTX happened, I was like, great, this is such an amazing opportunity to buy. Um, and now I feel a bit, you know, a bit less sure about when that that bottom could be.

[00:21:17]>> Yeah. Do you think this uh this privacy thing was uh was isolated to Zcash? Do you think Monero uh you know kind of gets you know guilty by association here? How do you think that that the whole what do you think this essentially does to that whole privacy coin narrative and and I guess just the self- custody narrative in general?

[00:21:36]>> Yeah, look I don't I'm not um a tech expert on um what the actual exploit is.

[00:21:43]Like from from my reading on it earlier, essentially people were able to mint an unlimited amount of coins which are actually not possible to track. So we don't know if we actually don't know at this stage if that bug was exploited or or not. Um, you know, if I look at the timeline and think about how Zcash just came out of nowhere with all these shills, I I wouldn't be surprised if someone figured it out and then got together with a group of people and, you know, and did what they did. But, um, it, you know, we don't know. We we don't know what's we don't know if factually if someone was able to exploit it or not. Um, and we don't we actually don't even know how many extra coins are out there if if that were were the case. That's the worry thing about it. But I don't see I don't know the the mechanics of Zcash versus Monero versus other privacy coins to know if that's the same thing. But conceptually, yeah, like I think any um any privacy, you know, coin that that whole narrative of privacy is now at risk because it's like [ __ ] if there is an exploit, how will we know it's been being exploited?

[00:22:52]>> You know what I mean? And AI will just keep going like AI the improvements in AI will keep going. So, um, yeah, all of it, that entire I think I honestly think this has sort of killed the entire privacy narrative in my opinion.

[00:23:06]>> All right. Well, you know, speaking of another one that's going down, someone else who publicly sold, so Arthur Hayes publicly, very publicly sold his hype position. Hype is down. Um, not I don't know if it's necessarily off of that, but like hype is just down in general.

[00:23:23]Just want to talk to you. How do you feel about hype just, you know, today where we stand? It it did recently hit all-time highs breaking above $73. What uh we dipped what about 10 12% give or take. What's your uh what do you where do you see hype right now?

[00:23:39]>> Yeah, I think um it's clearly been the best coin. Um it's been the best coin this year. You know, it's shown that the thing about hype is volatility is good for hype because volatility creates more trading activity. It creates more liquidations, therefore it creates more fees and because 98% of the fees continue to go back towards buying the coin, unlike other coins, you know, you have people talking about Ccash, VVV, NE, etc., etc. And um on up days they're great, but on down days they have no offsetting buy pressure. People just sell, right?

[00:24:14]Whereas with hype on down days, your especially in volatile times like this, your downside is um is being offset by some form of buy pressure, some form of tapping. Now when the price is down, it means the sell pressure is greater, but it's you know it would be down even more if those fees weren't going towards buying buying the coin. So I think um for me it's still I think the best coin in the market and the whole privacy issue has certainly um I think made this even a stronger candidate from for in terms of like what to hold and you're seeing tradition of it. You know as we mentioned at the beginning you can trade stocks now on trade XYZ on on Hyperlquid and you know there's a Wall Street Journal article on Hyperlquid this week.

[00:25:00]I think it's getting to the point where like everyone in crypto knows about it, but Tradfire only just starting to discover it and that's a really big thing I think for for Hyperlquid. So, um I can only see its activity um continuing to rise and the fees continuing to rise and therefore the entire platform ecosystem continuing to rise. Um I think that's only going one way. The only risks would be regulation.

[00:25:25]Is there a regulation risk? In the US, we had some positive headlines with with regard to um crypto perpetuals in the US. So, um that's in in Hyperlqu's favor, but you know that regulation is always a uh a moving target, right? And is predicated on the the government who's in charge of the time too often.

[00:25:47]So, even though it shouldn't always be.

[00:25:49]So, um I still think it's the it's probably the only thing I think I would own in crypto right now. Um would be hype.

[00:26:00]>> Yeah, I mean I it's hard to agree with you. I very publicly myself have been calling hype the coin of 2026. Uh um and I was really bullish on Hype just when they had when they were just what they were doing and the PERS and then they had that deal with Coinbase and Circle uh which you know bring stable coin yields into the mix. Do you think what what is your take on on where hype goes with that now added into it? Because I don't think we've I don't think those have been kicked in yet. I don't think we've even seen what those can do for hype. If I might be wrong on that, but what's your what's your thoughts on that one >> in in terms of what just the >> like so yeah with USD so that that deal that Hyperlquid and Coinbase and Circle did together where basically you know the stable coin yields are going to come into Hyperlid's ecosystem. How do you see that playing into just what they're already doing with their all their revenue stream?

[00:26:49]>> Yeah. Yeah, it's big. I mean it's big. I think people underestimate that because if you if if you have cash parked you don't want and if you have that people who care about that yield on that parted cash are people who have a lot of value of that cash like it's large size right so I can only assume that would bring in you know much much bigger size and high liquid so um that is undoubtedly positive that we haven't seen um but again like the other thing the other thing I say the other risk to it is this year we've had tons of DeFi hacks, right? And and exploits and we've just had this Zcash thing, you know, and then people are talking about anthropics mythos being this crazy thing and it's not even released to the public yet. So this is all that's the these are the other risks on on Hyperlquid. Smart contract risk, exploit risk, we don't we don't know what those risks are exactly. um we don't hopefully they've you know they put in enough work where it can't be exploited but you we've seen crazier things and that that's the thing for me that would be my biggest concern even though it's a tail risk you know tails are clearly quite fat at the moment so you mentioned near and near was had a really big pump and I think it was kind of a little bit off of the back of that AI narrative but also just like a lot of people actually talking about the ease of use with near in general. Now, obviously, it's down 20% uh very recently off of the back of that, you know, major green candle. What is your what's your thinking on on Near Protocol?

[00:28:33]>> Yeah, I mean, I'm sure lots of people have used um the function near where you're able to basically convert coins between networks at massive ease in a completely private way. And I think that's the thing that started to go a bit viral. Prior to that, there was the growing um narrative of it being, you know, AI focused. I think even the founding team or NEO itself was started out as an AI company before it was um even in crypto. So um I think that narrative started to build.

[00:29:05]Um, my fear with it now, and maybe some of that's already played out, maybe there's more to go, I don't know, is I just think that lots of people gravitated towards this these same consensus trades, which was hype near Zcash, VVV. Um, these were the only coins that were going up um in the in the last three or four weeks. And it feels like everyone had sold everything to chase these and and now these are all at underperforming the market because of what happened to Zcash and then going forward. So, I don't know. Like, I don't I don't feel strong enough on the air to think that it's going to be something that's gamechanging over the next few days and weeks. First, secondly, I think lots of people are just looking at the chart, um, looking at the price and they're probably doing the basic analysis of, oh wow, like when this was when the price was at, what did it get to like 20 or 30 in terms of dollar price?

[00:30:00]>> Like it was plus 20 over 20 in last cycle. Yeah.

[00:30:04]>> Right. Yeah. So, I think they're probably like, "Okay, wow. This thing was 20 in the last cycle. Now it's two, but now it's got this great AI and privacy narrative. Um, you know, this should shoot back to 20." But I think that the problem is, and I think people made this mistake with Salana last year, too, and continue to do so. You need to look at the the market cap. You need to look at a chart of the market cap, not a chart of the um of the price, >> right? And if you look at a chart of the market cap, you see there isn't as much upside because of you know um uh the way the way that can move. So I think um I feel less strongly about that. The other one I would be surprised if this wasn't on your on your question list, but the other one's VVV that I think >> Yeah.

[00:30:48]>> Yeah. that I think people have been speaking about. Um I think that has a much stronger narrative because um the privacy angle there is you're able to use LLM without sending back your data to ZLM. It allows you to also use Chinese LLM which uh perhaps blocks in some places. So that I think is a really valuable thing, right? You want to be able to use AI and not have your data sent back to to people, right? You to be able to use it in a private way. So um the what it the what it provides is extremely valuable and I think is not something that's going to go away and something that actually legitimately will ride the coattails of the expansion in AI. So now the question is like what um you know does a token have any value and why does there need to be a token and they've done a smart thing with um you know if you stake your VV you get those uh DM emissions which then can go towards your um cost of using these LLMs which again is actually a really good use case like if you're like me and probably many people using the show um you're using um you're spending some monthly amount on um on AI and right now we can sort of do what we need to do in um our $200 pro subscriptions etc. but at some point that's going to change where they've nuked the LLM so to get the good stuff you'd have to pay way more in pay per usage etc. So you know it's quite I think it's quite a nice concept to think okay wow I can buy this thing which um can go up if the AI narrative keeps increasing stake it and the staking emissions I can actually use towards my costs of using the APIs and I think that's a really really powerful and actually really smart use of crypto and a smart concept of uh in in general so I I'm a bit more constructive on that I think going forwards but again like you know these things move very quickly um everyone's in the same trade now they start to pull back and you know even underperform versus Bitcoin again. So I don't know when entry on it would be but I think um I think VVV has a really good use case I think.

[00:33:00]>> Yeah. No, we're starting to see it now too especially where Claude, you know, kind of shut off the use of their you being able to use their subscription with your AI agent. So you got like an open clar Hermes, you can't you have to only you can only use like claude for example if you connect it through the API and those those API credits those stack up quick if you're not paying attention. Oh my god, I spent over I I didn't even realize I spent over $100 last month and on API credits and it was just well a little more than 100. But anyway, uh speaking of, you know, just kind of the AI and stuff, right? SpaceX, Anthropic, Open AI, they have very public IPOs coming up soon. uh wanted to just get your overall take on that because I feel like they're so hyped, you know, like just these are well not feel like they literally are they're going to be IPOing at literally the highest price ever. I think some will be even close to trillions of dollars I or you know market cap when it IPOs. What's your just what's your overall opinion on these IPOs coming and like what it means for the market if like all of these coming so close together like how does that what does that liquidity effect like just overall what what are you thinking here? Yeah, I mean it feels toppy, doesn't it? It feels toppy. It feels like um but I don't think I'm the only one that thinks that. I think the entire market thinks that. But you know, you have these mega IPOs. Some people inevitably go and chase them. Some people will inevitably derisk a lot ahead of it. And I think we're seeing that d-risk de-risking right now. You know, in today and yesterday, people are taking chips off the table in the AI stuff. But you know these are mega mega IPOs that will just command all the attention and focus of the market. Now the thing is if if one of these trades well if if SpaceX which I think is I read somewhere it could be next Friday. I may be wrong there but um that trades well and people make money on it then I think it's very good for the market because um you know you'll see some of that. I I still think there's a lot of AI stocks which have maybe um maybe down in the last two or three days to chase this stuff and if those guys go and make money, I think a lot of it will come back because that narrative that for me is still too powerful to fade. So it could end up being good for the market and I think because everyone thinks it's going to create this sort of local top. It could also be, you know, come out and and spoof people and get us the wrong way around. But it's, you know, it's mental.

[00:35:23]It's madness. like you know I read something that about uh when Nvidia came to market um uh and IPOed it was Nvidia IPO market cap let's see what it was it was a very very low number um $800 million was uh was where Nvidia went public in in 1999 and you know now it's wherever it is like $5 trillion right so you used to be able to buy the as an as a I don't know if this that was available to retail or not, but you you you know once it IPOed you could as a retail person you could buy it publicly, right? So you used to be able to buy the stuff at you know relatively low prices and then be able to ride it up and now you just have these mega IPOs at insane prices where the market public market is really just exit liquidity for people who've invested at cheaper levels and who are able to get into you know get get their IPO allocations etc etc. So it's I mean it could just be as easy as these will create a top or a local top for the stock market. It may well just be as easy as that. Um but that is what everyone is thinking. Is literally what everyone's thinking. And something I think that is worth mentioning is Google did a very big equity sale uh this week.

[00:36:41]I think it was to the tune of uh $85 billion um $85 billion that Google did this week and the price stock price barely nudged and that's that's huge um huge equity raise, right? Massive massive size. So, um that may tell you or give you an insight into how big and deep the pockets are for this stuff. M >> um and there is a lot of money floating out there that is underinvested or needs to invest in this stuff. And I think that the for equities I think the pullbacks are potentially much shallow than crypto because I think people have missed the trade. People want to get into the trade. Um people have spare capital dry padded I think to still buy the stuff because it's not going to the momentum of it is not going to change.

[00:37:29]So, um, you know, the obvious thing is like sell everything now. Things should drop into the SpaceX IPO and then buy it back on the day of the SpaceX IPO. Um, and hopefully that does well and you know, you see capital rotate back into it.

[00:37:45]Like that would be the the obvious thing to do, but again, I think everyone is thinking that. So, if everyone thinks it, it's not usually always what happens.

[00:37:54]>> Fair point. Uh so so mentioned so do you think SpaceX like SpaceX feel is is definitely different than the pure IP uh AI ones right like the anthropics and the and the AI open AI um there's also been rumors that they could potentially be merging with Tesla down the line also uh do you think SpaceX like if I guess if you had to pick between these three IPOs is SpaceX the one you would prefer to like or or do you see that one being more of a successful IPO than the anthropic or Open AI.

[00:38:27]>> It's a good question.

[00:38:33]>> I don't know. I honestly don't know.

[00:38:35]It's a really good question.

[00:38:37]It's just it's just I don't think anyone doubts that these companies continue to grow.

[00:38:43]>> It's just a question of valuation. It's a question of valuation, absolute valuation, and a question of relative valuation. Like I don't think anyone thinks oh you know AI is not going to become more important and anthrop is not going to get bigger in the next you know three four five 10 years. I think people feel the same way about SpaceX and Starlink and etc etc. So I just it comes down to a question of like absolute valuation and relative valuation and um I think if you look at these mega IPOs history really does tell you that um you see that ex you you see that drop first and then you know the future continues but I one one versus the other I'm not really sure like I don't I don't know without doing a bit more detailed analysis of the numbers themselves and and the the valuations and even how to compare compare those two things, you know, you're not comparing apples to apples, there is apples to oranges.

[00:39:37]>> Um, so really it's it's sectoral analysis. Um, but then you have to think about their valuations within their sectors. So it's it's a a tricky question to to answer. I think that um without doing a bit more without having more numbers in front of me and and looking into it a bit more that can have a better opinion on I think.

[00:39:54]>> Yeah. No, I absolutely appreciate uh appreciate your your transparency and honesty in it because it is it is a really tough one and and and it like I'm just on the surface of it to me it seems like I mean obviously they're all going to do very well. It just seems like SpaceX just has so many different like bullish narratives that you know you have the AI stuff, you have the space narratives that are is just like I think SpaceX is is uniquely positioned but what what the hell do I know anyway?

[00:40:20]Now, another question I wanted to ask you kind of while we're on this AI stuff and obviously like there's nothing is stopping these AI rails. However, you know, with any like big technology, especially like, you know, the industrial revolution, anytime you've had like these these like society changing moments, there's obviously been just, you know, backlash to it and and we're seeing that with AI, right?

[00:40:44]There's rumors that Donald Trump could uh adopt an anti- AI narrative to to save himself in the midterms. You know, there's a lot of um protests, you know, against push back on these data centers being built in these small towns. How do you kind of see that uh do like do you see do you see that stopping AI? Do you see that like actually like being a thing we should be concerned about? Is that something that can actually like slow us down here? What what do you see there? It's a it's a real thing because look, AI is causing or will cause is causing real people to lose jobs, right?

[00:41:22]People people dislike a lot of people dislike AI a lot. We all like it because we all like tech. That's the reason why we're all in crypto and we like finance and we think it's all cool, right? But the the the wider world is not necessarily the same. And you we've experienced that with with WCT and you know, we've made some AI generated ads, etc. Um, and um, the reception to it is, oh, I hate this. I hate the fact that it's AI. Like, how can I trust this? How do I know it's real? You know, there's And I think a lot of people are also feeling like, oh, now my job is threatened by AI. Like, [ __ ] my boss did this um, you know, like way easier than than with AI without even using my help. I think people uh uh have um a dislike for it and that goes all the way up to you know the top level. So there's an argument to say like okay in a different style of government and in a different environment they say okay we're going to just actually start regulating this really heavily. We're going to say you have to you know you can only use uh mitigate the features that are available. You can start to like really control it and police it. Um but I think that's not a that's not a good outcome that fixes the issue I think in my opinion and inevitably people will just you know countries will be pro AAI and those countries will then succeed and and so you know you may see it at company level but it just realistically you can't really stop it can you can't I don't think you can really stop it. No, the cat's out of the bag. Like, how can you I mean, I guess like you said, we're in tech and you know, we're we're like I guess kind of in our own little bubble. So, we view this thing very differently, but like the way I see this like how can you use AI and then not want to use it ever again? Like I just I I don't see how someone who uses it and sees the power and what it can actually do for like your output and just your efficiency and how much easier it can make your live life if you're learning it and using it.

[00:43:21]I don't see how anyone can see that and then be like, you know what, I'm not going to use it anymore. It's just to me that's crazy. But I guess we're not these people. Uh so >> yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Um yeah. I don't know. Maybe there's a smarter way where you can like save jobs or do other things while letting AI flourish. Maybe there's something that we're missing. I don't know. We're still very early in this movement. But um >> yeah, cuz like they say like obviously AI is taking a lot of jobs but like you know Jensen Wang a lot of these AICOs I don't I mean obviously it's probably in their benefit to to say this but like we don't know about how many jobs are going to be created because of like all the things that AI is going to bring to us.

[00:44:03]Like we there could be job sectors that we're not even considering right now.

[00:44:07]they're going to be in demand because AI made it. So, uh, so like I I I I don't know how to think of it, but that's I lay my opium on that.

[00:44:17]The thing is um we it's not the first time we've had a technological shift in the world and um it won't be the last time and you know, humans are still here so um I'm sure we'll figure it out.

[00:44:34]>> Yeah, absolutely. So, you mentioned wrecked. Uh can we get an update what's going on there? Uh what what's in the what's going on in the world of rec drinks these days?

[00:44:43]>> Yeah, so we just um we just launched a collaboration with Salana. So um that launched during during the show. So if you fancy trying a new flavor of sparkling water, um head over to rec.com and you can you can buy it there. Um we um recently just launched our collaboration with FaZe Essports 2. That was um another flavor of energy powders which we've had on Amazon for the past few weeks. And we also have our first energy drink um sale as part of that too which uh was just we just finished manufacturing of that um at the end of last week and getting ready to to ship those out too. So I'm excited for people to uh to consume that because the powders I think we've had a really good reception to it but drinks are a bit more of an accessible product to a larger group of people. So very excited to see um to see people try the energy drink. So you know it's been it's been great on the operational and the drinks the um CPG side to keep growing the brand. Crypto side has been you know just like everyone else has been tough.

[00:45:45]you know, we our our token is down with the rest of the market. And um you have you'll always have I think with brands and crypto projects, you'll always have your core group of believers who will back you regardless and will be, you know, defend you to the hilt and will be behind you at all times. And then, you know, you'll have the other group of people who will just be there to make money or be speculative, etc. And >> you obviously lose that second group of people when when stuff doesn't go well.

[00:46:12]But I think um you know in the in the four years we've been doing wrecked, it's not the first time we've had a crash. It's not the first time things have got down. It's not the first time people people have lost hope. And each time we've been able to bounce back to higher levels and to actually grow, not only as a brand, but as an ecosystem.

[00:46:31]And I think um that's what I'm excited about going forwards, just proving to people that we can live through and survive this once again for the fourth or fifth or sixth time. Yeah.

[00:46:41]>> Um, and then, you know, adapt to make things interesting for the for the next big run up, which will always happen.

[00:46:47]Just have to to ride it out, I think.

[00:46:49]>> Yeah. No, well said. You guys have a very rectilant community. Uh, you guys have shown it time and again. You've been around. So, uh, not really worried about that. And just like there are people always going to want to dunk on you when you when you fail. It just means that you like I feel like if you have it's a it's a cliche at this point, but if you have people that are hating on you and like cheering on your downfall, it means you've been doing something right along the way that that you got to that point. So, um you know, is uh any any World Cup uh wrecked drops planned? Uh or I guess well I guess that's uh if if it is, you know, we don't want to tease it too early, but like is something going on for the World Cup potentially?

[00:47:31]>> No. Oh, no. We don't we don't have a world I mean that would be um >> I guess it's only a week away, right?

[00:47:36]>> Yeah, it's only a week away. So, we don't have anything specific planned for the World Cup, but um you know, that's definitely a goal of mine to get to once we as we continue to grow the brand and we can get on the bigger stage in terms of sponsorships and that kind of stuff to to be at something as big as the World Cup would, you know, would be would be incredible. We did the X X Games earlier this year um in in Aspen, which was very cool. So, um, you know, slowly climbing our way up.

[00:48:01]>> You got to, uh, I mean, hey, the rec community is awesome and they're worldwide. So, I think you got to get some some people across all of these fanfests in, you know, the different parts of the the US and and the world and just have them like drinking wreck drinks and just chilling it. That'd be some great gorilla marketing there.

[00:48:18]>> Exactly. Exactly.

[00:48:20]>> Uh, all right, Obie. This has been a great uh another great just alpha drop from you and just great to get your insights in general. But uh just want to kind of throw some rapid fire questions at you uh before we end here. Um, Bitcoin 50K or 75K, which happens first.

[00:48:49]If if you said like 55 or 54 or 75, that's what I would say. 50 is a another big stretch. So, I'm going to I'm going to say 75. I'm going to say we don't touch 50. We don't touch 50 and we get to 75 next before that.

[00:49:02]>> All right. AI. Good. ultimately good or bad for humanity?

[00:49:08]>> I think it's good. I think I think people are are overblowing how bad it is from humanity. I think it's good.

[00:49:15]>> And World Cup winner prediction. What do you got?

[00:49:23]>> I'm going to go with this is going to be our year. I think I think this these are the England have had the lowest odds of winning this in the last three or four major tournaments that we've had where we've been like top two favorites and I think everyone's expectations are much lower this time.

[00:49:39]But I'm going to go with uh go with us taking uh taking the crown.

[00:49:45]>> That would be that would be crazy. Uh >> all right, Obie. Another thanks again for joining us guys. Everyone, thank you for tuning in. This has been another Friday of Wrecked Vision, everyone. Um, markets are crazy. Touch some grass.

[00:50:01]Don't [ __ ] this up. And have a great weekend, everyone.

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