The TORNADO Risk Has Just INCREASED For The South..

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Wednesday, we'll bring the highest tornado threat that the Deep South has seen all spring, and we're here to break it all down for you. We're going to first go over the latest from the Storm Prediction Center and their outlooks.

[00:00:09]There has been some changes, and we'll go over those changes, and then we'll give you a state-by-state breakdown of what you can expect for your neck of the woods. For example, if you want a zoomed in look at Alabama and Mississippi, which will be the highlighted states uh for tomorrow's risk, I got you covered.

[00:00:23]Georgia got you covered. South Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, Northeast Texas, we got you covered. And then we'll nerd out with you guys a little bit, explain what's bringing on this all together. Uh we'll show you some fancy graphics, things like that. If you're interested in it, and then we'll show you some rainfall graphics. How much rain are you going to pick up over the next 48 72 hours? I got you covered there. My name is Mitch. Good Tuesday evening. Hope you guys are doing well. Subscribe if you haven't. Like the video if you like it.

[00:00:48]And if anybody has anything I can pray about or pray over, please put it in the comments below. Let's get rocking and rolling. Uh tonight, almost said this morning, have not made an evening update in quite some time. So, I'm used to saying A.M. or either the morning, but let's go here. So, let's start off with tomorrow's severe weather outlook. We've had an upgrade from a slight risk to an enhanced risk. Level two to level three for certain areas. Not a huge area, but certain areas. And this includes the orange region. That's an enhanced risk.

[00:01:16]This is tornado driven. I'll show you the graphic here in a second. This includes northeast corner of Louisiana, right through the middle sections of Mississippi, right into the middle areas of Alabama. Birmingham, you're included in this. And just north of Jackson also.

[00:01:30]So, kind of between the Tupelo and Jackson corridor. And uh it doesn't look like it gets all the way down to Meridian or anything like that. But Meridian, you are in the uh slight risk.

[00:01:39]Slight risk is in the yellow level two out of five. We're going to get severe weather here too. And this basically goes from I mean like Austin, Texas, all the way over to Atlanta, you know, all the way into a very small section here of even South Carolina. gets all the way up to the um northern sections of Mississippi, um Alabama, uh Georgia, and drops all the way down into just closer to the Gulf Coast line, but not quite there. I really think the worst of the severe weather risk will be north of the Gulf Coast line here, kind of north of New Orleans, Mobile, uh things like that. But the dark green is the marginal risk at level one out of five. This does extend, heck, all the way up to Nashville and even a small section of southeast Kentucky and southwest VA. It does get up to Little Rock, but I do think the atmosphere will become more stable throughout the time period um uh tomorrow. Um so, we just got to watch that. It'll be a cold front sort of dropping down. But let's not hang up on that too much. We'll speak more on the ingredients and things here in a second.

[00:02:36]The tornado outlook for tomorrow, this is what's driving that enhanced risk upgrade. If you live in that yellow, that is a 10% risk of a tornado within 25 miles in any given location. The brown, that's a 5% risk. And then the green is a 2% risk. All right? So if you live in Birmingham, 10% risk of a tornado within 25 miles of your location. And then you see the black outlined area with the black dashes going in between. That means in this area there's a risk of some of these tornadoes being strong. Reasonable max intensity of these tornadoes is maybe an EF2, maybe even stronger. So strong tornadoes are possible tomorrow, guys.

[00:03:12]And we have that increased risk from a 5 to a 10% risk. So, if you got the information in this morning's video, well, I'm glad you're tuning in this evening because they have increased the risk of tornadoes. Now, here's a closer look at this for my friends here in Mississippi and Alabama. This is Mississippi. Of course, Starkville, you're included into this. Don't get too hung up on if you're in the brown, the green, and yellow. You know, everybody has a risk of tornadoes in the severe weather threat, but of course, if you do live in that yellow area, higher risk.

[00:03:39]And here's a closer look at Alabama with this graphic. Tuscaloosa, uh, Birmingham, Tallaladega, you're included in this. My mom and pop who live down here, um, and southern areas of Alabama, it looks like the worst of the weather, if you are tuning in, definitely leave a comment, say, "Hey." Uh, it looks like the worst of the weather is going to be, uh, to your north. So, we'll see.

[00:04:00]Definitely get some nasty weather, though. Uh, severe wind outlook. If you live in the yellow area, and this could increase another category, yellow area, 15% risk of damaging winds within 25 miles in any given location. winds could exceed 55, 60, 65 miles per hour or so.

[00:04:15]Hell threat, uh, this will be more confined from the middle to the western sections of this severe weather threat where the, uh, cape levels, the storm energy can build up a little bit more in these areas. So, uh, yellow 15% risk of hail exceeding 1 in in diameter or larger, black outline region, black dashes going in between, that is a risk of significant sized hail. Hail that could exceed, you know, 2 in in diameter or larger. All right, so let's give you a state-by-state breakdown. We're going to start off northeast Texas with tomorrow about midday. And there is that slight risk that extends into northeast Texas. Heck, all the way into central Texas. But I really think it's more of a conditional threat here for this state.

[00:04:52]And as we're moving forward, there isn't a whole lot to show you. I mean, we get to about 2:00 p.m. We do got a nasty storm firing up here. You know, just north of Austin. Might not be exactly where this storm forms. Mary, loyal follower here in Northeast Texas. You got more storms firing up right around your area. Heck, even southeastern areas of Oklahoma could get some nasty weather, too. But, you know, we take it until about 400 pm time frames up here if you lose me. And then we get into 6 pm. Still some lingering thunderstorm activity. And we could get more thunderstorms than what this is showing back here in more so central Texas. But this run, the her model, not showing a whole lot at all. And then we take it to about 8:00 p.m. Take it to about 10.

[00:05:30]It's tomorrow night, not tonight. And then we get to about midnight and then 1:00 a.m. There ain't really just, like I said, there's not a whole lot to show you here. Now, Arkansas, totally different story. Now, we're going to start this off with about a couple hours from now. All right, Arkansas. You know, you you're about to get under the gun here shortly. So, we're going to start off around 1000 p.m. tonight. Big storms already firing, right? And then we're going to take it till about midnight tonight. Big storm still ongoing from the corridor from Tex Arcana up the Hot Springs, Little Rock over to Memphis.

[00:05:59]You guys are going to run the risk of storms. Even up to Jonesboro is possible. You can see these little squiggly lines coming off some of these cells. This indicates more stronger, robust updrafts. These storms can produce all hazards, even strong tornadoes. So, we continue to move forward and these storms jump around.

[00:06:12]This is 3:00 a.m. Big storms around Little Rock, especially points east, uh, but even west of Little Rock, too. And I mean, there's just going to be a lot of ruckus tonight in Arkansas. And then we wake up, the sun comes up, and we got more thunderstorms bubbling up around a boundary, kind of a sagging cold front that's moving through. And as long as you're around that boundary and just south, the atmosphere will be primed for severe weather. And it's just kind of like I said, sagging very slowly to the south. It's not a clean sweeping cold front. So this allows for more convection just to keep going. So we get to about midday tomorrow. So we're fully into Wednesday at this point, lunchtime.

[00:06:46]Is there going to be some more strong to severe thunderstorm action develops?

[00:06:49]Absolutely. I think it'll be for the southern areas of the state tomorrow, though. So this is around 2 p.m. Big storms once again in southwestern areas of Arkansas have been a hot spot lately for severe weather. And then we get to 4 pm, five big storms. Watch out Pine Bluff, south of Little Rock. I think it'll be more stable up here, but this is some nasty storms. Some strong tornadoes are possible. Large hail is definitely possible with these storms.

[00:07:14]And look, 6:00 p.m. 7. This just looks like a rowdy evening tomorrow across areas of southern and eastern sections of Arkansas. And then we take it to about 8:00 p.m. 9:00 p.m. Still some storms ongoing. And I do think things begin to simmer down by the time we get into late evening tomorrow. This is 11 pm. You can see some action begins to calm down here. Louisiana, what we got?

[00:07:37]Starting off around 8:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. We take this to about midday.

[00:07:41]Not a whole lot going on. 2:00 p.m. 3:00 p.m. 400 p.m. 5:00 p.m. scattered convection beginning to develop. Pockets of scattered downpours. And then we get to about 78. You can see you see kind of this kidney bean look of some of these storms. You see how they're kind of hooking like that? tells me that these might be some tornadic storms, might be some supercells, rotating thunderstorms, there'll be a low-level jet really building throughout this region, the Mississippi Delta, Southern Region, and there will definitely be enough ingredients, which we'll talk about here in a second throughout this region. And as we're starting to get about 10 p.m.

[00:08:13]tomorrow night, big storm still around Monroe, give or take a town or city. And uh you know, we'll get into about midnight tomorrow and then 1:00 a.m. and uh we could still have some big storms kind of around in in areas of Louisiana, but I really think it's going to be confined the worst weather northern northeastern areas of the state. Now, this is the highlight of two states for tomorrow's big risk. And we'll start off um around let's back it up a little bit.

[00:08:39]We're way too far ahead because I do want to show you what could happen later tonight. So, this is around 1:00 a.m. uh tonight. All right. Big storms will be entering the northern counties of Mississippi and Alabama. You can see near Tupelo, storms just to your north Florence starting to get some heavy rain and thunderstorm activity. Um I think the northern areas will get lucky because you'll kind of get the leftovers tonight. You could get some bad weather, but you're kind of in a area timelinewise where the the atmosphere will becoming more stable in a basically the better ingredients will be working south uh kind of in a unfavorable time of the night of of the an unfavorable time of the 24-hour period if that makes sense, which is the nighttime hour. So, kind of a cold front's beginning to bog down to the south. You're still going to have some weather. You're waking up tomorrow.

[00:09:30]This is 10:00 a.m. Big storms could be possible still in the northern areas of Mississippi. We take it to about lunchtime. Look at these big storms near Florence, Huntsville. Not a whole lot going on. Jackson, Meridian, Tuscaloosa, uh, Tuscaloosa. I always say Tuscal, always mess that word up. Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadston. Not a whole lot going on at this point. Then we get into about 2 p.m. 3, four, five, more widespread thunderstorm activity. I'm telling you, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama could just get round after round after round of storms. Still getting storms 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

[00:10:05]You're wondering what's going to happen here. You know, Birmingham, things like that. Well, watch what happens as we take it to about 7. Boom. Explosive thunderstorm development as this low-level jet really picks up here. And you can see just these little kidney be.

[00:10:17]You see how this thing's kind of hooking like this north of Jackson. These this there's just a little bit of a subtle kind of hook with these storms. Little kidney bean look. This indicates just some what I think is probably going to be just some low top kind of rotating supercells. This will be a messy. This is what makes it dangerous is I really think it doesn't really ramp up until late afternoon evening maybe when the sun starts to set somewhat. It's getting kind of darker outside. I really think this will be a messy threat too where these could be some rain wrap tornadoes if they do get going. And then look at this. 900 p.m. Sun's starting to set.

[00:10:51]Pretty much dark at this point. This is some nasty thunderstorms. See these pockets of pink, white, could be large hail. See these squiggly lines, strong, robust updrafts, embedded tornado threat. I mean, you're not seeing any really discreet supercells.

[00:11:06]This is kind of clustering up, right?

[00:11:08]But there's going to be favorable ingredients overlapping one another in this area. So, this is 900 p.m. And this is where this run of the her model is showing where these storms are going to be. All right. You know, it doesn't show every town in in the state of Alabama, Mississippi here. Hopefully, you know, kind of in general where you are on a map. Not trying to make fun of anybody, but believe it or not, there's a lot of people that don't have a clue on where they are on the map. Um, but this is 10 p.m. Big storms riding into the Meridian, Tuscaloosa, uh, Tuscaloosa.

[00:11:36]Get it right, Mitch. Birmingham, Gadston region. Big storms moving into, uh, Georgia. We'll talk more about that here in a second, but this is some nasty, rowdy weather. This is 11:00 p.m. This is midnight. Still nasty weather ongoing. This is 1:00 a.m. 2 a.m. 3:00 a.m. 4:00 a.m. 5. Thursday morning things start to, you know, calm down, mellow out. But Thursday morning could get could wake up to some rowdy weather near Monroeville. It's where my mom and popo live. Things like that. But let's just go over this one more time. 2:00 p.m. 3 4 5 p.m. tomorrow, 6 78 p.m.

[00:12:12]tomorrow. Big storms basically dumping tons of rain. I want to add too across the northern half and central areas of Alabama, Mississippi. And then this sort of begins to just ride a boundary that I think will be in here create a little bit of a spin in the atmosphere and when we can have some nasty weather even well after the sun sets tomorrow. What about Kentucky and um uh Tennessee starting off around midnight tonight. We're going to have a lot of rain moving in. Some thunderstorms on western Tennessee, western Kentucky will be possible. And then we take this all the way to about 4:00 a.m. Whatever's left over this energy will make it all the way into eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, where we need rain a little bit more, I would say. And then we wake up tomorrow morning, maybe more of a cleared out environment. Where is sort of our uh boundary going to be? I don't really think anybody up here is going to get much of any way of any severe weather, but you want to watch, can we get just enough moisture? Is this boundary being modeled wrong? Is it going to be north, south, and what is being modeled? We got to figure that one out. I think some elevated stuff will be ongoing across areas of Kentucky. This is 11:00 tomorrow morning, but watch out for some nasty thunderstorms in the southern counties of Tennessee. I talked about this this morning. Uh so Cumberland Plateau getting into Tennessee Valley.

[00:13:23]This is 1 p.m. This is two. This is three. Chattanooga, be careful.

[00:13:28]Columbia, Jackson.

[00:13:30]This boundary will be slow to move south. So look at this sneaky big hell threat. I would say even a tornado threat kind of sneaking just north of Florence into the Tennessee over the state Tennessee state line here 5:00 p.m. storm straddling those southern counties of Tennessee. Just depends on where that boundary is going to be. If it's further south, I don't think you're going to have to worry about a tornado threat in southern Tennessee. If it's further north than modeled, you will.

[00:13:56]So, but you know, we start to get into the late evening hours. It's about midnight tomorrow and things begin to calm on down. NOW, GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. Of course, I'm a little biased to this area. I live here in central South Carolina. Um, I'm a little excited that we can get some storms maybe late tomorrow uh into tomorrow night, but this is starting off around 100 p.m.

[00:14:13]tomorrow afternoon. I think we could have a round of strong to severe thunderstorms that blast through the northern counties kind of north of Atlanta of Georgia. And um then the leftovers of this should make it to the upstate of South Carolina. This is 5:00 p.m. tomorrow. Could have a big thunderstorm here around the Greenville Spartanberg area. Watch out for that. Is it going to survive all the way into the Midlands? I live here in Columbia. Uh but this is 8:00 p.m. Could have a thunderstorm around around this time tomorrow. More action moving into the Greenville, Spartanberg area, upstate of South Carolina. Here comes another cluster of thunderstorms in northern Georgia. And then we get into about 10 p.m. 11. And then this is midnight. big storms along with a lot of heavy rain moving over Atlanta, Nunan, Rome, Athens, starting to get closer to Augusta, getting closer to Columbia. And then we take it until about 2:00 a.m.

[00:15:03]shows a nasty line of storms working into central Georgia. Um, and some storms moving into central South Carolina also. And then we take it all the way to about 4:00 Thursday morning.

[00:15:13]Not tomorrow morning, Thursday morning.

[00:15:15]We got a pretty beefy line of storms cruising now into the southern areas of Georgia. It's raining really hard in South Carolina. Could have some thunderstorms, too. And then we wake up Thursday and we got to watch the atmosphere to try to build back up again certain areas. But this is 8 a.m.

[00:15:28]Thursday. Shows a a line of thunderstorms moving through the southern areas of Georgia. And then Virginia and North Carolina. And we start off around 1 p.m. Then we get to about 4. Heavy rain, embedded thunderstorms moving into western North Carolina. And then we take it to about 7 8:00 here. Uh some pockets of thunderstorms and heavy rain moving throughout the western areas of North Carolina. Need the rain. Some storms up here near Danville, Rowan Oak possible, too. Maybe some popup scattered activity near the DC corridor. And then we start to get to about around 11:00 p.m. just scattered action. It it just doesn't look as put together up here in North Carolina points north. And don't yell at me. I know you guys need the rain up here, too. I really think the southern Pedmont has the better chance of just more confined heavy rain chances, but this is 2 a.m. 3:00 a.m. You can tell a lot of it tries to miss North Carolina and Virginia. Better stuff into South Carolina and Georgia. So, talking about ingredients is the 500 millibar wind flow. So, uh mid to upper levels of the atmosphere and uh we look at this to really see if there's enough lift in the atmosphere. And this is starting off tomorrow morning. the purples and the splashes of red you see this is where we have ample amount of flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere to kind of be that pushing mechanism to get these storms going. So as I put this in motion you know throughout tomorrow afternoon evening tons of flow riding through this area. All right so I kind of put this in motion start again this is tomorrow morning and just rolling it through the afternoon hours. There's just plenty plentiful flow and you can see these little pockets right here of kind of where the purple disappears. This is where we have impulses of thunderstorms.

[00:17:07]And then you look at the lower level flow. This is 850 millibars about a mile above your head. It's what we call the low-level jet. This will be tilted more so out from the southwest to the northeast. So if you look at these wind barbs, they're more so in the lower levels. Like for example, let's back this up a little bit. Little teaching moment right here. So this is around tomorrow afternoon. You see how this wind barbar right here in Alabama is pointing to the west? That means your flow in the mid to upper levels is coming out the west. But your flow in the lower levels is coming more so out of the southwest. So a little bit of a spin in the atmosphere, a little directional shear uh happens where we have a a changing in directions with flow at different levels of the atmosphere. So low-level jet gets going and this is coming more so out of the southwest. You look at this little wind bar right here in Alabama. You see the flag portion pointing the southwest.

[00:17:54]That means flow's coming this way. So it's pulling and you can see where the ridge is kind of the lowle ridge right here. Okay? You can see the flow and this is pulling rich moisture into the deep south states, the Gulf States here along with you got the lowle jet. Look how beefy it gets right here. This will fuel a tornado threat into the late evening hours. So that low what does that lowle jet do as far as moisture?

[00:18:17]Well, watch what happens in response to a lot of flow moving up through here.

[00:18:22]Watch this. We get into tomorrow about midday.

[00:18:25]Look how deep due points already in the 60s in Alabama up into Tennessee. But look at these pool of due points in the 70s. It's that moist air this uh these tornadoes love like the severe weather severe weather ingredient that that is needed for severe weather. And you move forward and you can actually see a bit of a boundary right here. This is the cold front right. You can see up in Little Rock D points drop into the 50s tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more stable. But that lowle jet yanks in better moisture all the way into Georgia. Eventually, we get this pool of uh 70 plus due points that get well up into Alabama. So, here's kind of a a quicker motion of this really quick.

[00:19:05]Like, watch this. This is tomorrow morning. Pivotal weather can be slow, by the way. Uh very slow. It's kind of annoying. Messes up the flow of my videos. Speaking of flow, uh but we get into tomorrow afternoon. You can see the 70 plus due points try to build all the way into Georgia. So, and then they try to spike one more time for Thursday right before the cold front clears it out. So, in response to the dees rising, our cape levels rise. Higher due points typically the more energy you got in the atmosphere. Okay? So, cape levels rise to right over 2,000 jewels per kilogram right up to the boundary which is right here. I mean, you can obviously tell where the boundary is, right? And you go from 2,000 jewels per kilogram mix layer cape to nothing in this little amount of area, geographical area. And you can see how the better due points due points rise into the upper 60s7s. The cape levels will build throughout Alabama even into Georgia. You see how that happens and the storms move through and eat up all the fuel along with the cold front boundary that moves through. So it's pretty wild. Just a little learning moment. Watch how the due points spike.

[00:20:12]Okay, if you're tuning in and new to weather, all right, tomorrow morning, watch how those due points rise across areas of the deep south. Okay, and then they collapse in response. What does your cape levels do? They rise. So, yeah, significant tornado perimeter, which can be a little bit inflated off weather bell. Actually, a lot. I don't know why it shows these diabolical high numbers, but the higher the number, the better the ingredients for tornadoes.

[00:20:39]Just leave it at that. But you can see how it spikes big time across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. But you see that dramatic cutoff right here. That is stable air, right? So it's definitely going to spike here. And if we look at the updraft list swath, strong signal for uh strong robust updraft updrafts and potentially rotating updrafts. Let's not ignore the rain threat. Start off in Arkansas, work our way west between now and 7 a.m. Friday. This is how much rain you can get in Arkansas. A lot of clustering of thunderstorms for the southern and eastern areas of the state.

[00:21:12]Little Rock, an inch of rain expected.

[00:21:13]Pineel Bluff, maybe an inch and a half.

[00:21:15]And then we take a look at Louisiana here. This is how much rain you can get between now and Friday morning. Good bit good bit of rain. But uh Alabama, Mississippi, this is where the some of the most rain could fall. You know, Jackson, Meridian, up to Birmingham, Gadston, that corridor two to three inches of rain is in the forecast. So, a lot of rain here. And then we take a look at Kentucky and Tennessee. This is what you're looking at here. And then South Carolina and Georgia between now and 8 a.m. Friday. Atlanta could get two 2 and a half inches of rain. Augusta to Columbia, inch, inch and a half.

[00:21:44]Greenville, Spartanberg, same thing. So much needed rain on the way. Not as much for areas of southern Georgia, but we'll watch. And then this is North Carolina and Virginia. We'll stop it right here.

[00:21:55]That's all I got, guys. Thank you'all for tuning in. We'll continue to keep you updated and uh safe. Just thought I would jump on here and make a quick evening update. keep you guys um up to date with the most updated information.

[00:22:06]Have a wonderful night and we'll do it again tomorrow morning and see what's changed and what's not.