The Market's Lying to You Right Now

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:00]S&P hits another all-time high, but what's going on under the hood? If we take a look at the NDX, it's absolutely on fire. It is very hard to look at this and say that anything's wrong. But there's a couple things I need to point out. NASDAQ breath keeps pushing higher.

[00:00:15]But again, take a look at this. When we compare that breath to a shorter term breath on the S&P 500, you'll start to note the deterioration. And this is not something that happens immediately, but it's certainly something that we need to pay attention to. So, I'm going to point a couple things out and then we need to cover some earnings. Let's get to it.

[00:00:35]Guys, subscribe, click all notifications. It helps me greatly with the algorithm. I purposely do not run ads in the middle of these, which I know everybody finds exhausting, but it definitely helps me with the algo, and they are all linked together and actionable. All right, let's get to it.

[00:00:50]All right, let's start with the basics.

[00:00:51]So, we all know that the S&P broke out.

[00:00:53]And so, I'm not going to sit here and just tell you the obvious. We're going to get to it. If we take a look from the 17th over, we can see how the 20-day has just been dropping and dropping, but that's not really affecting tech. So, it's a function of, okay, is that healthc care that's dropping? Is it defense that's dropping? Because if we're losing those names, nobody really cares, right? We we we care, but we don't. So, we then go up and look at the next order of magnitude, which is going to be the 50. And if we look at the 50 and we're going, okay, well, we were higher here and now we're lower here.

[00:01:26]And what this means is as we're going higher, what's starting to happen? Now, you can always break out of these just like you can break out of anything. But right now, the breath of the market is actually continuing getting worse as it's going higher. This is not really where you want to be. As long as we're above 50, we're fine. But we just need to be cognizant that it's out there.

[00:01:46]Now, I'm not saying, oh, the crash or anything like that, but you have to realize that when you broke here, you never really got a really strong test of that. So, let's just look at the basics for a second and say, let's say that you came back to your main level and tested.

[00:02:02]Okay, that would be 5%. Is that the end of the world if that happens? No. Do I think that it's going to happen? I think you have a better chance than a coin toss right now of seeing something like that happening after what happened tonight. And we'll get to it.

[00:02:16]and we'll get to the earnings. So, if we look at these levels 60 and then we're coming down here and now this is going to be your 200 percentages above and we can see that we also the breath is getting worse. So, the breath is getting worse on the 200. It's getting worse on the 50. It's worse on the 20 and the five. Yep, you got it. It's worse. But that will usually change first. Now, this can all broaden out and get better.

[00:02:42]That could be good, right? Yes and no.

[00:02:45]If the breath gets better on the S&P, but it's not better on the NASDAQ, that's where you start running into a pickle. So, let's get rid of this here.

[00:02:53]It's literally impossible to look at that chart and say, "Oh man, this is definitely something I need to short."

[00:03:00]Like, that doesn't make any sense to look at that and say that. And that's not really where we're going with this.

[00:03:05]Where we're going to go with this is we're going to look at this effectively and say to ourselves, okay, what is it that we're trying to accomplish? like what are we really trying to do here?

[00:03:15]And we're trying to understand where this could come down to and where we could drop to. So if we look at something like this, the first thing is we'd have to understand where the target is, right? So if we understand where the target is, then we can go from there.

[00:03:27]All right? So if we measure this peak, which would be the high to the swing low, which would be here, you're going to get a level, and that's going to be your first fib extension. So I'm just going to say that again so that you guys can do it for yourself. If you take the peak and then you take the swing low, you don't have to take the breakout here, but you can see that's exactly what we're doing, right? You wouldn't mark it up here and then do it. You would take this huge base, which has that swing high, the swing low, and then you'd say take where the breakout was, and you drop your fib levels there, and that's going to take you this 28396.

[00:04:01]Well, where did you get to? You got right in there. And it's not an exact science, but you're there. it doesn't mean that you are setting up to automatically bounce down because of that. So when we look at that, we have to say, okay, I call this between these two fibs, I just refer to it as thin air, right? The air is thin up here, meaning expect some volatility when you get in here. This is where it would start getting goofy. And we saw some signs of that today, didn't we? When we started to take a look at the VIX actually spiked today and started going up. And you have a VIX that closed higher despite what? And I think this is super interesting. UVIX just really no love there today. But what did you start seeing with the VIX today? Well, the VIX is going up and the S&P is going up and the NASDAQ's going up. All right. Well, one of these kids is doing their own thing, right? So, why are you buying production if we're going to keep going higher? They usually don't do that. And when you watch people buy on the VI, even though it's nuanced like this, you really want to pay attention. And there's different ways to do it. You know, one person was talking to me today about the put call ratio of it. That's one way to do it. There's other ways to do it as well. You know, VVIX I tend to look at which is the VIX volatility.

[00:05:18]It's the volatility of the VIX. You can sometimes look at it this way. Kind of like reading the tea leaves. And then what you're looking for is you're looking for rallies. So, if you start seeing rallies off of this, it does start to tell you a different kind of story. And we're starting to see what we're going to get here. We can see the drop in here. And now we're starting to get a rally. It's telling us that we're seeing a a shift, right? So, we want to watch the shifts. It's not just about up or down. It's more to do with the shifts. We can do it in another video where we cover it. But, so when we look at this, we want to pay attention to it.

[00:05:49]All right. So, then we take a look at the NDX and we would say that we are over that first fib. Is that enough? Is there anything else that we'd want to use? Well, I'm glad you asked. There's something that I tend to use when things get, as I refer to, goofy. Now, in front of you is the NDX with fib levels, but I'm going to take that all off for a second. And then you're just going to see Ballinger bands. Now, these Ballinger bands are just the first, second, and third standard deviation. It is not some new thing that I've invented. They're just Bowlinger bands, and then I just sent them to a one, a two, and a three standard deviation. You can see how wide they are. And there's something about the variance of a Ballinger band that we could get into.

[00:06:28]But if we took a look at this, the one thing that you can always tell about with Bowlinger bands when they get this wide is you're looking for a change in trend from what you were experiencing.

[00:06:38]And it I don't want to again it's kind of complex, but like see how wide they are. It's just insanity. Someone can say that. Insanity, isn't it? So when they're like this wide apart, for example, if you went here and said, "Okay, the Ballinger bands are 25% apart." Like that's pretty darn wide, right? So, we'll take that low and we'll go to that high and that gets you 27%.

[00:07:00]All right? And then if you went into here and again, you had a change in trend from that, didn't you? Right? You were down and then you went right and then the Ballinger bands get tighter. So then you look at some of these and you're like, "All right, well, what's the difference between these?" All right, that's 32%. Well, let's get it exact here. So that's 32%. Okay, so the variance between the third degrees are what? 32%. Let's take this here, which was just absolutely insane, and you get 36%. So, anywhere between 25 to 36% on average, we're seeing something where they then will think about a rubber band, and the rubber band snaps back.

[00:07:36]And then you come over here and you go, "All right, well, what do you have here?" And then you're measuring this off and you're like, "Okay, well, that puts me at 22% roughly, right? Let's get to the high of that." So you're not out of the ballpark on the variance between the spread between those two, right?

[00:07:51]You've seen that variance before and it's gotten greater, right? So that means that this has the possibility to get greater as well. Again, it's not an exact science. What you're trying to do by looking at this is understand what's going on. I don't care that you're hitting the second one because you can hit the second one and just ride it.

[00:08:09]What you want to watch is when you start looking at these weekly charts and you start hitting the third one. When you start getting up into here, it it definitely becomes an issue. It's no different than when you were here and you're hitting that third standard deviation on the downside. When you start hitting a third standard deviation on the downside, you're pretty much done. When you start hitting it on the upside, you're pretty much done. But you could see this November 21 and you're starting to hit that. If you really go back and look at this, at no time did you really hit that standard deviation except in here. You started hitting it.

[00:08:43]And you could really look at it right there. So once you see that, it's a big deal. And you can go through it, you'll see them, but it's not very common.

[00:08:52]Remember, these are standard deviations of moves. So when you get to those, it's really like you got to be really aware of it. So are we getting there? Yeah, you are getting there. And whether or not we hit that, it doesn't need to hit that to roll over, but that should be on your radar and you should be watching it. So that's the second thing that I think we have to be cognizant of. And again, it doesn't mean that the sky is falling. Far from it. Earnings are fantastic.

[00:09:18]No matter how you look at it, earnings are fantastic. But that's a lot in a very short period of time. So then if we look at here and we just take a look at the market and go, all right, well, where's that put you? 8%. All right, well, what if we don't drop 8%. What if I we don't correct 10%. What if you came down to something like the breakout of that bar, right? And where would that put you? And if we just looked at from that level down, where's that put you?

[00:09:44]All right, 4%.

[00:09:47]You You did it in five days. You take the stairs up, you could take the elevator down. It's out there. And we know it's out there by the way that this is setting up. They're buying the VIX.

[00:09:56]And we know that they're buying the VIX, right? We're watching that. If we take a look at move, they're not really that concerned about it. What are they doing with the 10-year? Well, all of a sudden, we're going to have world peace, right?

[00:10:07]So, let's see how that go. Let's see how So let's tie this all together. Now you cannot look at this chart and say that oh we're definitely going to come down.

[00:10:18]What you can do is say we've come far in a very short period of time and anything could kind of set us off, right? And have a cascading effect. And so what I always look for are sentiment changes.

[00:10:33]Meaning when you've gotten bad like just think of the opposite when you have really bad news and nobody cares and they buy the stock anyway. When you have really good news and nobody cares and they sell it anyway. One is bullish or bearish sentiment. Right? Just remember that because it's a really good guide for what people are thinking and what they plan on doing. So when I see something like this, what I tend to do or what I want to look at is I want to just look at it as like the whole piece. So, I'll go and take a look at NDFI and I'm talking as how I would look at the market right now. And when I see something like this for me and what I'm seeing is there's a high, there's a a lower high, and that's the NDFI, which is the 50-day. So, what I have here is I have NASDAQ 100 not broadening out as it's rallying. So, in other words, the same names are going up and we're not broadening and they're not participating, which is one of the reasons why I've been saying in the community to people, the easiest way to play this is just the ETFs so that you're not out there trying to figure out which name that you should buy. Just SO XL, which is down considerably. We'll talk about that in a minute, not four bucks, but from the high of 170 or near it. I think you have to look at it that way. And I think you have to realize that they're going to rotate through them. The function of this is again it's very hard to look at this and just say oh well clearly we're at this so we're going to stop. You can stay up here for months but when the breath deteriorates that's what you really want to pay attention to. That's where we have to look at this and say to ourselves all right what exactly are we doing here?

[00:12:14]And I think that that's super important.

[00:12:16]Now on the flip side, if we look at how earnings were perceived yesterday, AMD had good numbers. They were good, right? They beat revenue by 3%. They beat earnings by 6%. The stock was up 33% today on that. And people guided higher because they came out and said, "We're going to grow for the next 5 years." No one's saying that they're not going to grow for the next 5 years. and no one's saying that they're going to do this and it's going to be fantastic. I'm not arguing that. Let's say that it is.

[00:12:53]Does that justify the move that you've had in the past 3 months? I would argue that it doesn't. And the market doesn't care. I'm going to trade it either way anyway. Right? Like we shorted it today and then we got out of the way. It was real. It was a very simple short. I want to go through this. So, I'm not going to show live trades. But if we took a look at last quarter and you look at where you are this quarter, you're up 121%.

[00:13:16]It's not like a hund00 million market cap company. It's a big freaking company. So you you kind of have to look at this and go, "All right, well that seems pretty darn excessive and it's very clear that they're chasing things."

[00:13:29]And when people chase things, it tends to come to an end if there there's an overvaluation there, right? No different than looking at something like PLTR.

[00:13:38]This was a fantastic quarter. And what happened? The stock sold down. Why?

[00:13:42]Because, you know, you're trading at what, hundred times revenue or something. It's like insanity where the valuation is. And they'll grow into it.

[00:13:50]And maybe as they grow into that valuation, what will happen as the revenues grow into it, right? Then the valuation will flip and you'll find like an inflection point somewhere. We just don't know where yet, but they're not going to not grow. Same thing with AMD.

[00:14:06]Like I don't think that this a the AI thing's over. I don't think that it's a I don't think it's a quote unquote bubble, so to speak. People keep saying the word bubble without even understanding what that is. I think you have to look at it and say to yourself, is that justified? Could we not gap fill? Right? Like this is kind of where I want people to think. Like if you're like, "Hey Rocky, where are you going with this?" to the idea that you could come in and you could gap fill and you might be able to buy these things cheaper instead of chasing them like everybody else that's chasing them right now and not making any money and they can't figure out why, right? Because it's not working the same way. And there's a reason for that. The next thing that's going to happen to people, mark my words, they're going to start buying options and then these names are going to move and they're not going to figure out why they're not making money on the options. It probably actually started today where people didn't make as much money on the options and and you're going to be like, I watched this dude on YouTube and he's fantastic and he was explaining it's because the VIX is rising. So the implied volatility of the options is actually going up greater than the movement of the stock, right?

[00:15:05]Okay. So where does how do we tie this all together? Well, we would just look at this and say to ourselves, well the SOXL, for example, is up what 60% from here. I mean, we bought this thing I think April 24th of something where we paid like 90 bucks for it. We had a trade down here, too. But we got back in, paid like 90 bucks for it. I think we're up 70% in like two weeks. It's ridiculous. It It The reason they're moving is not ridiculous. I want to say that the earnings are there. Like, the earnings are crushing. They're way better. Intel's quarter was way better than anybody anticipated. Like, no one was even close to this quarter. Even someone like myself has to admit that like it's not the big that I've been calling it forever, right? And I'm long it. I'm like, "Yay, Intel." But you have to realize that that's still a huge move over a very long period of time. So these names can come in and that's going to lead us to is that why we're starting to see people play the IGV names because they're looking for where they're going to put money in more the value tech.

[00:16:10]Again, I'm not saying that you're going to collapse. I'm saying that I do think that that you are at way more risk here than people think that they are because you look at something like Oracle and you know when Oracle I'll show you what we did here. So Oracle gets gaps up and gets over right here and I have a very long-term Oracle position. So I add it to it like right here and then I just leave it on. I don't want to touch it.

[00:16:33]I'll look at it. You know when I say longterm at least at least a year I'll leave it at that. So now we're breaking out. Okay, great. What do I do with it?

[00:16:42]I don't do anything with it, but why is Oracle moving? I think they're looking for the beaten down value names. That's what I think they're starting to do. And they might start looking at Microsoft as well. But what we're going to do is now tie this all back. So, what do you do here? Well, why is the socks down? Well, why is AMD down, you know, $8, right?

[00:17:01]Why are these names down? All right. So, then we're going to go to ARM. And ARM had earnings tonight. And the earnings were okay. They were not great. They were okay. And the stock has had an enormous move after hours, right? Went up to like 260 or something. We traded it a couple times and once I did very well and once I did okay and got out when he just kept saying the word AI over again because he started scaring me. But if you look at this, you're up 114%. After hours, this is what you got.

[00:17:33]And you can see your movement in here. I think the call wall might be 220 on this, but you're really struggling with this right here.

[00:17:40]you push up and I did this trade because I'm like, "Oh, they're going to pull an AMD, which is the exact pretty much the exact same setup. You can see it. Once these setups start, everybody starts looking for them." But see right here.

[00:17:52]And then in here, I'm buying and I didn't get in here by the time I got like a four handle. I always want to make sure when I'm doing these after hours, see these bars like here? I mean, it's really this one. It's actually really that one right there. You always want to make sure that you're closing over the close on the day and you can see it. So, I got like 42 and then traded it out. It did well and then I watched to come back to that area and then bought it again and then I started selling into these pops. I my plan was to hold it and to come back there and you know, man plans, God laughs. But I took what I could get out of it and then I just moved the stop to break even and kicked it and then he just kept saying AI and nobody cared anymore. So, I think some of this stuff could really come in when people start realizing that not everyone's going to go up $60 because they say the word AI and they say CPUs are going to be the cat's pajamas. And I think that that's something that you need to understand. So, really good quarter.

[00:18:47]Let's just be blunt. It was a really good quarter and they raised guidance, right? Okay, great. Stocks down and I'm going to go through a couple of these.

[00:18:55]Oo, NQ really good quarter. raise guidance, raise revenues. We could talk about a whole litany of things on this.

[00:19:02]We could talk about the in the the sellers that are supposedly out there.

[00:19:06]We could talk about the fact that it's moved so much. Okay, there's all kinds of excuses that we could come up for.

[00:19:12]Bottom line, good earnings, stocks down, high guidance, stocks down. FSLY, I don't know what they found here, but I went through this quarter, they crushed, absolutely crushed. I understand it's up a lot from there, but they couldn't get out of that thing fast enough today.

[00:19:33]Like, they just could not get out fast enough on that name. And being candid, I don't see the problem. There must be, and I haven't listened to the call, but there must be something there. But solid earnings. And if you go through them and we go through these earnings tonight, COR, now if we go and take a look at this, they came in line. That's not enough right now, right? And if we just go through the names, actually is bouncing, but it was up a lot more. But that was a really good quarter and they raised guidance. Nobody cares. I'm not saying this is the be all end all. But now you have to start watching this. You're going to have to watch the earnings tomorrow morning, too. There's a couple of them in here that are interesting. Like DD Dog should be super interesting to see how they react to this. And we want to watch how they react to the names that they had to own. you. They had to own Micron. They had to own the SO XL, right? They had to own EWY. These are names that I own and talking my book, but like they have to own these names. We're killing it with these trades. You know, STX, WDC, they had to own these names when we've been calling them the four horsemen. You want to make sure that they take advantage of this dip and that they're not selling into the rallies. I see this as much as everybody else and I said it when we were doing the public today like the public pre-market. You know, it just we feel heavy, but that doesn't mean that it's going to just collapse. It could just come back down, have a bid only in the certain names and then, you know, go right back up. So, we'll see what tomorrow brings. If you're trying to get in the community, keep looking for the letters. They're starting to go out slowly but surely to get people in that want to be in that are on the wait list.

[00:21:17]If you are on the wait list, there is a a link in description and I also pin it.

[00:21:24]And I want to be really clear about this. You you don't have an earnings problem. I'm just going to get that out there one last time. Like you you do not have an earnings problem. Like some of these earnings are like STRL. They are just really raising them. Like they're really raising the guidance. What we have is this move commensurate with the fact that you're not even going to get a pullback. And I I think that is the wrong way to look at this.