Chalmers' budget targets housing affordability, but misses supply | Alan Kohler | ABC NEWS

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[00:00:00]Well, the centerpiece of the budget was tax reform to improve housing affordability, which was either a courageous or deceitful broken promise, depending where you stand.

[00:00:09]It was necessary, though, because the national housing accord plan to build 1.2 million dwellings by June 2029 isn't working.

[00:00:17]They're 120,000 behind already and not much chance of catching up.

[00:00:21]And there are two problems. First, the accord is about approvals, and that's not the problem.

[00:00:28]They are falling short of target, but a lot more houses are being approved by councils that are being built, which is disguised by a statistical quirk.

[00:00:37]The ABS doesn't collect development applications data, only construction certificates, which is the final step before building starts.

[00:00:44]Now, discussions with the industry and councils suggest each state is sitting on at least 100,000 approvals that aren't getting built. So, about 3/4 of a million houses and flats look stranded because the developer can't make the project stack up.

[00:00:59]The second thing is the population growth is not falling as expected. In fact, it's rising.

[00:01:05]The latest data for net overseas migration is for September last year, when migration and population growth both increased.

[00:01:13]Now, more recent data on long-term arrivals suggest it continues to rise.

[00:01:17]So, in the budget, Treasury has had to increase its forecast for it.

[00:01:22]But, it is still saying that migration will fall to 225,000 in 2 years' time, or about 100,000 fewer than last year.

[00:01:31]Now, if that forecast comes true, then the current level of housing completions will more than meet demand and bring house prices down.

[00:01:41]But, for some reason, the government won't turn that forecast into a target.

[00:01:45]The oppositions, both of them, are talking about migration targets, and it's now a key political battleground.

[00:01:53]Well, maybe that's the next bit of courage that's needed from the government. Turning its migration forecasts into targets,