TD HAGUPIT (CALOY) Final Update - Monday, 05/11/26 (English Ver)

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Hello everyone. Good day to all. It's another new week ahead. This is your host Mike Miseta Ivan Padua returning to our tropical weather analysis and this is the special coverage on tropical depression Hagupit which has entered PAR during the past 2 days.

[00:00:19]It's now known as Kaloy but this is not the final update since the system is dissipating over the Philippine Sea because of a poor environment.

[00:00:31]Increasing wind shear as well as entrainment of dry air into the circulation. Although there's still lots of convection over the eastern quadrant of the storm.

[00:00:43]We're still monitoring it although we are now issuing the final update. In the succeeding days we are going to issue the usual tropical weather analysis.

[00:00:51]This is for today Monday, May 11th, 2026.

[00:00:55]English version.

[00:00:57]Brought to you by Typhoon 2000 and the college foundation. I would like to thank our partners Aboitiz Power and the local government of Naga City headed by our honorable mayor Lenny Robredo and our honorable vice mayor Gabby Bordado.

[00:01:13]Before we begin, shout out to all the viewers from Sorsogon City and it's such a lovely place. We're I'm over here right now on a special trip.

[00:01:28]Okay. Personal trip and I hope everybody's okay down here in Sorsogon.

[00:01:35]And if you are a subscriber of this channel, just acknowledge. Okay?

[00:01:41]I hope you're doing well.

[00:01:43]So let's begin now with our update. As the forecast says for the past few days, Hagupit or Kaloy is now dying over the Philippine Sea although it's still trying to bring lots of convection to the east of its circulation. So, here's the uh, latest uh, fast animation from the University of Wisconsin Tropical Cyclone page. There's still some robust uh, uh, convection to the east of the circulation. The circulation of this storm is uh, currently here along the western edge of this convection. So, it's currently here.

[00:02:20]Okay?

[00:02:21]And it's moving towards the uh, west-northwest into that direction.

[00:02:28]Okay? So, uh, there's still uh, uh, some convection, but the base of the forecast it will uh, dissipate in the next few days, but we are going to absorb this until it completely dissipate over the uh, Philippine Sea. So, here's the uh, zoom-in satellite animation from windy.com. And as you can see, there are still some thunderstorms along the eastern edge of the circulation.

[00:02:53]And here's the uh, easterlywave.com.

[00:02:56]There are still uh, uh, rainfall amounts of 50 to more than 100 uh, uh, millimeters. This is the 24-hour rainfall accumulation based on what we're seeing on the infrared imagery from easterlywave.com.

[00:03:13]And uh, if you look at the latest from typhoon2000.com or typhoon2000.ph, that that's our official website.

[00:03:21]And uh, here's the uh, system right now as of 8:00 a.m. this morning. 500 km east of Guiuan.

[00:03:27]And uh, it's uh, winds has gone down to just minimal tropical depression strength, 45 kph gusting to 65. And it's expected to dissipate because of poor environment, such as dry air intrusion and uh, moderate wind shear environment.

[00:03:46]And here's the uh, lone track from all the Asian agencies, the only one uh, monitoring the state uh, storm. Also with Hong Kong Observatory, but we are focused on Pagasa. So, this is the track of Pagasa within the next uh, mm, 10 hours, it could likely uh, uh, weaken into a remnant low pressure.

[00:04:05]So, it's only over open waters, so it's not expected to bring rainfall over the country. So, there's no direct effect, okay? And here's the uh, last of the uh, clock from our multi uh, Asian agency the uh, uh, forecast track of this storm.

[00:04:24]And it will just be remaining over the uh, East Philippine Sea for the next uh, 3 days until it dissipates completely.

[00:04:33]And here's the multi-model diagnostic comparison.

[00:04:37]Here's the forecast of all models, and if we take a look at the uh, latest on the uh, layer deep shear layer or the wind shear, it's uh, currently uh, uh, low to moderate, and for the next uh, 3 days and uh, 4 days it is start starts to uh, increase once again.

[00:04:58]And uh, but the mid-level relative humidity is expected to be low at 50%.

[00:05:03]That's why it's encountering some dry air inclusion into the circulation of the storm. As for the 24-hour rainfall accumulation forecast from ECMWF, tomorrow, Tuesday, the convection of uh, uh, tropical depression Hagupit or Kaloy is expected to uh, weaken.

[00:05:25]And on Wednesday, it's completely devoid of any uh, circulation, as well as Thursday and into Friday. Still, dry conditions will persist across the country, except for Mindanao where some afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms will be expected for the next 5 days as we move into the middle of May.

[00:05:48]And for the wave heights, luckily for the fishermen over the East Philippine Sea, the wave heights will just remain around more than 1 m in wave heights. So, that's 1.2 on Wednesday, Thursday, 1 m.

[00:06:05]And you can observe that the circulation here, which was once tropical depression Aloy, now is expected to disappear within the next 5 days until Saturday. So, it's good waves all across the country, over the West Philippine Sea, the central waters of the country, and the East Philippine Sea ranging from calm conditions up to a little bit more than 1 m in wave heights.

[00:06:33]Okay? So, there you go. That's the latest for today, Monday. I'm out of town, and we'll see you again, you know, next update probably tomorrow.

[00:06:43]We will be giving you another update on the tropical weather analysis across the country and western Pacific Ocean. This is Mike Padua saying a good day. Have a great week. Stay safe always.

[00:06:57]And thank you so much for watching our channel.

[00:07:01]God bless to all.