GUNNERS SHOT CLIPS : BANGLADESH GOES BACK TO IMF FOR BAIL OUT / LT GEN PR SHANKAR / MR SREE IYER

本站添加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Let's go to Bangladesh, Bangladesh.

[00:00:03]Bangladesh has sought an IMF bailout again.

[00:00:08]Okay. And we have to understand Bangladesh because we know that there's a new government in Bangladesh.

[00:00:14]And that government is tricky, mind you.

[00:00:17]I'll call it tricky. Tarique Rahman is not a straight guy.

[00:00:21]He was a guy who was in his father's mold and his mother's mold who were anti-India.

[00:00:27]He was involved in, you know, arm shipment and smuggling and all that. And he was convicted.

[00:00:33]Convicted.

[00:00:36]By the court. Now that conviction has gone and everything is going on, whatever has happened. He's now the prime minister.

[00:00:42]His love, his familiar love is not with India. His father didn't like India in fact, actually father hated India.

[00:00:50]His father wanted to go Islamic. His father wanted to go to China.

[00:00:55]Now the point is, why I'm saying all this before I start.

[00:01:00]Is that today's circumstances are different.

[00:01:03]And everything is different and this is to just to put a view as to what is happening.

[00:01:10]So that uh we know how to deal with this tricky character.

[00:01:16]It's not going to be straight. Dealing with them is not going to be straight.

[00:01:20]So let's first see the facts and then we'll discuss back on Bangladesh.

[00:01:26]Okay. Now Bangladesh, you know, Al Jazeera says Bangladesh seeks IMF aid, how badly has Iran war hit its economy.

[00:01:35]The Iran war has hit the Bangladesh economy pretty badly. For them to go and seek a loan. And the Daily Star there it said, "Look, they already incidentally, Bangladesh was already under IMF program." And that program started when Sheikh Hasina was in chair.

[00:01:54]Right? And it continued.

[00:01:57]Uh now they've out of that and they want a restart and depending on which what shall I say media you listen to that their requirement could be anything from two billion dollars to four billion dollars. That's the bid they're putting.

[00:02:14]And why has this happened?

[00:02:17]Yeah, this is what I've written here.

[00:02:18]Bangladesh is already in the middle of a 5.7 billion IMF program. It began began in 2023.

[00:02:26]And it was due to run for four years till next year and now they're pulling out of it.

[00:02:31]But in the meantime I think somewhere last last month or so World Bank has approved a 350 million dollar loan to help Bangladesh manage its import costs and rising fuel costs and all that and strengthen its energy security. Already they have got 350 million as a loan. Over and above that now they're taking the IMF program.

[00:02:57]The garment sectors their whole story is going to decline by 25 to 30%.

[00:03:04]You hear it is saying 20 to 25 but if you overall say maybe 1/3.

[00:03:10]I'm not talking of the hit they've already had.

[00:03:14]From what it is today they're going to shrink another 25 to 30%.

[00:03:19]Uh flights are cancelled.

[00:03:22]I've been cancelled because of no fuel.

[00:03:24]As simple as that.

[00:03:26]Uh the price of resin has gone up because resin is a byproduct of the refining process.

[00:03:33]And resin is the fundamental for plastics and it's a resin is the basic for your garment industry.

[00:03:39]That is off. So there's a problem and their external debt has risen.

[00:03:44]And they have you know, the thing is in the previous uh bailout they borrowed money for infrastructure projects.

[00:03:55]They said, "Look, if we improve our infrastructure, our economy will go up, which is quite logical for that point of time."

[00:04:03]But now that infrastructure is like an albatross around their neck. 1 and 1/2 years of Yunus and now they they are not able to sustain that infrastructure.

[00:04:11]So, whatever they have done for their infrastructure, they've only taken loans on, and that infrastructure is not being paying.

[00:04:18]And of course, they want balance of payments, which is there. And some infrastructure projects they might have to finish. For example, you know, they've gone got a nuclear power plant.

[00:04:29]What good is that? They're going to just pay through their nose. It's not cheap.

[00:04:33]Nuclear power is not cheap.

[00:04:35]Okay. Now, all this is happening. Why I've got this headline is you know, the Bangladesh border, people are going back. Now, with the new government in Bengal, it's very clear. There's no place for illegal immigrants. And there's no place for immigrants who got, you know, local identities by, you know, slight of hand.

[00:04:58]So, the new chief minister is pushing everyone back. As it is earlier, uh they couldn't go towards Assam or Tripura.

[00:05:05]That was got locked out long back. And now, Bengal the people going back from Bengal is huge, and they'll go back.

[00:05:14]And you know, Bangla Bangladesh can't stop. So, that you see that all around Bangladesh is tightened. And that's a major problem.

[00:05:24]And amidst all this comes the report that look, they want to buy JF-17 from Pakistan.

[00:05:31]So, what is Bangladesh up to? Either it's bankrupt that, you know, it has to save itself, or it has is militaristic against India.

[00:05:40]That's the point. That's a tricky aspect. Yeah, can we This is the last slide. Now, I want I'm going put across a few points. You can take the slide off, please.

[00:05:48]Uh the point is this Bangladesh is very clearly getting close to Pakistan. We've discussed this.

[00:05:57]Now there are reports that you know Bangladesh wants to reopen its you know linkages or rather strengthen its linkages with China.

[00:06:07]And over and above that, if this IMF loan has to come, they need USA.

[00:06:14]I mean USA has to back them.

[00:06:18]Though in this for USA Bangladesh is now a forgotten backyard, it's not so.

[00:06:23]You know, after what Rubio came and the quad talk and all that.

[00:06:29]I'm sure there is this whole business of Bangladesh relevance, irrelevance, everything will come into the focus.

[00:06:38]Now China is also looking at Bangladesh so that it can enter the Indian Ocean region.

[00:06:43]The moment you open up a port at Galatia Bay, which I've spoken earlier, right the requirement of Bangladesh for China increases.

[00:06:53]Uh now so you see this kaleidoscope which is coming in Bangladesh.

[00:06:57]Bangladesh wants to play the big player.

[00:07:00]Okay? And they want to ensure that they are not going to be part of the Indian biosphere. I mean they've never been. So they'll continue with this so that Tariq Rahman, I think, is showing very clear indications.

[00:07:13]And they're also showing indications that look water is our right. We will get it. Or something like Swaraj Hamara Adhikar right type, you know, that kind of a thing. So they want to impose conditions on India for getting water.

[00:07:26]This is how the Bangladeshi mind works.

[00:07:29]So the Ganga water treaty is up for renewal by the end of the year.

[00:07:36]So all these issues are there.

[00:07:38]You know, it's like a pot with you know it's fermenting.

[00:07:42]How will this take off and then you see that you know there's another thing you know this this gentleman called Jaideep Saikia who writes in the northeast. Yesterday I saw his article in the Sentinel and what he puts out is a bit scary. He says that look this Jamaat-e-Islami is not the old Jamaat-e-Islami. They're modernizing.

[00:08:10]What are they modernizing? They're modernizing their methods. They're using AI. They're modernizing their IT.

[00:08:15]They're modernizing their way of outreach. They're modernizing their talk so that they are more palatable to people and if they're doing all this that is why they've got the 60-70 seats otherwise it would have been a free run for BNP.

[00:08:30]And but their fundamental thought processes of Jamaat-e-Islami has not changed.

[00:08:38]It remains anti-India. It remains Razakars.

[00:08:44]Right that's a danger and all these Jamaat constituencies where they won are along the border.

[00:08:52]So you see this whole story now.

[00:08:54]You see a Bangladesh which cannot progress economically and no country no country has progressed economically under a IMF regime and specially when this IMF regime or the IMF you know program lasts for 6 to 7 years which it will last now. It started in 23. It it will now go on for another 3 years at least the new program if they're talking.

[00:09:20]So you know 6 years 7 years means you're going into 2030. So this country will not prosper because the IMF prescription for most of the loans they give us higher taxes.

[00:09:33]You have to put taxes. You put higher taxes without the ability to, you know, increase income.

[00:09:40]It's a recipe for disaster and that's what Pakistan has been experiencing.

[00:09:44]That's already there. In fact, anywhere you go, this is the problem.

[00:09:48]So, what happens to Bangladesh then?

[00:09:52]Nothing will go forward. Going forward, their expansion will not take place.

[00:09:57]You see the political dispensation there more keen to get through with uh Pakistan.

[00:10:04]And that is why they're trying to get the JF-17 deal through and that means Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh. This little triangle we have to be very cautious.

[00:10:17]>> [snorts] >> And the fact that China itself wants to enter Bangladesh for at Lalmonirhat and in the there, you know, uh Purbachal that is uh that Cox's Bazar, where they already have a bay for submarines and ships and all that, which and Bangladesh has built that infrastructure more about 2 and 1/2 times more than what it requires.

[00:10:41]Right? And then you see this guy who's a tricky chap and then you see the rise of Jamaat.

[00:10:47]And most worried something in Bangladesh is that uh the the eclipse of the Awami League.

[00:10:57]Bangladesh National Party is very happy to ensure that Awami League will not come back.

[00:11:04]Will not come back. They'll not allow Awami League to come back because that's the route to, you know, elections in perpetuity.

[00:11:11]So, there is also a strain that those people who are in Awami League who oppose Bangladesh National Party, right? Some of them are joining Jamaat for no other reason but this thing. And I don't know whether another party they will be able to float in the another form and then come to power and go back and all that. There's no way.

[00:11:35]You see, there's no driver of Awami League in Bangladesh today.

[00:11:41]So, you there's no uh that chap Joy was there. I think he's somewhere in USA and all that and I don't think he's an influential guy. In fact, I heard that he is under he's most of the time at he's supposed to be alcoholic. I don't know whether I'm right or wrong.

[00:11:58]Uh so, the point is the Bangladesh thing is getting murky.

[00:12:03]Right? We have to be careful of this.

[00:12:05]For us also, it's a dilemma. Are you going to go and discipline them? Are you going to go and uh you know, get them into your fold?

[00:12:14]It's a carrot and stick policy. How you going to play this carrot? How you going to wield this stick? At what stage you'll do it is an issue.

[00:12:22]Uh in the meanwhile, I don't see a Bangladesh policy coming out or some signals coming out as to how we will deal with Bangladesh. Fine.

[00:12:34]We have given them a hand of friendship back and all that because of new you know, prime minister there.

[00:12:43]Uh all that, fine. But, how we going to deal with them?

[00:12:47]What is the military angle to this? What is the diplomatic angle to this? What's the economic angle to this?

[00:12:53]And what are the contours by which we're going to deal with Bangladesh is something I would like to see to come out. But, let's see if these are early I won't say early days, these are mid days. Then the true true thing will come out by this year. And I feel that, you know, we have to be careful because Pakistan knows that exploiting a weak Bangladesh is something which they would love to do and China will help them in this. Uh I've given a longest kind of a thing because that's the way I see it. So, over to you, your view, sir, and then we can talk further.

[00:13:29]>> Um at this point [clears throat] of time, India is still maintaining some of the things that Bangladesh need. Like, for example, they're giving them rice. Of course, the oil that they'll be giving would probably also undergo a hike now because India itself is paying more now at the pump. And the most important thing after the Suvendu Adhikari government took office, the cattle smuggling has dropped to zero.

[00:13:57]And see, what happens in such cases is see, the hatred for Hindu is is manifesting itself in many many ways. One of them is, "Oh, Hindus don't eat beef. Therefore, we will eat beef."

[00:14:12]Now, what has happened is around this beef trade, there's a whole ecosystem economy.

[00:14:17]That's completely come to a grinding halt.

[00:14:20]And and likewise, cotton that is needed for their garment industry is not produced in Bangladesh. It has to be procured from elsewhere.

[00:14:30]And the cheapest way to get that is from India. If India doesn't give them cotton, then their mills can't turn out anything.

[00:14:38]On top of that, the EU deal with FTA with India makes India's taxation into EU on par with Bangladesh.

[00:14:47]And to make it worse, Bangladesh lost out their privileged status to not have any taxes because they've been doing reasonably well. There is a four-year window or something according to which they now are disqualified from enjoying any tax benefits.

[00:15:02]So, it's coming in various different directions now.

[00:15:06]And still, these guys want to go and do all the wrong things. I mean, I don't understand it. I think India is doing the right thing.

[00:15:13]This the squeeze is going to start, in my opinion, General Shankar, when maybe suddenly they'll say, "Okay, you pay up your electricity bills now.

[00:15:24]Otherwise, you're going to get power cuts."

[00:15:27]Something like that is what's going to happen next, the next level of squeeze.

[00:15:30]Because at some point India is going to say, "Enough of this nonsense."

[00:15:35]And my number, as far as the people who have gone back, General Shankar, is between 1 lakh to 80,000 or so. The reason I'm getting a smaller number is because it is removed rumored that some have found their way back in.

[00:15:49]And it's possible because you still don't have a airtight border along the West Bengal-Bangladesh thing. 100 km of river being the fence. And that requires special technology to be able to, you know, monitor that.

[00:16:06]So, it'll probably be done in a year's time. But the signs are all there.

[00:16:10]And and they can't run for too far. And and my other thing is most of the drug smuggling trade, human smuggling, all these things used to take place through India, Calcutta, and so on.

[00:16:25]And all of those have also stopped.

[00:16:28]Many people who were caught somewhere else, like for example, in Middle Europe, suddenly, "Where are you from?"

[00:16:33]"I'm from Bangladesh." But they're having an Indian passport.

[00:16:36]Why did Why Indian passport? Because Indian passport opens more doors than Bangladesh passport. Same thing happens with Pakistan also.

[00:16:44]So, these kinds of things are now beginning to come out. And and all those things, this uh you informal economy, if there's another way to put it, because of the election result, has completely come down. In fact, Major General Rajiv Narayanan, and I asked I talked about this, was the West Bengal election the equivalent of the 2016 demonetization to Pakistan? This is Bangladesh's demo moment. Because a lot of things that were happening just because, you know, Mamata wanted to Well, I don't know, turn a blind eye for the I for lack of other words. And this has completely stopped now.

[00:17:26]And with more and more meat not going, this is going to hurt more.

[00:17:33]You know why, sir?

[00:17:36]The beef one cattle can give you a lot more meat than say fish, which is the other alternative. Or uh, you know, and and I don't know how many chicken other things like lamb, sheep, chicken they have.

[00:17:54]This used to be another trade where they would come to the bordering districts and steal live feed.

[00:18:00]livestock That is also stopped now.

[00:18:04]Long story short, Bangladesh is in a lot of pain. Instead of going to the right place to ask for help, it is doing everything else. And and this is false pride.

[00:18:15]As simple as that. And the other kicker, General Shankar, this is not coming out now.

[00:18:20]Killings of Hindus are still happening.

[00:18:23]Not abated at all. Under Tarique Rahman, killings are still happening. Once in a while, India will just yank the chain a bit. Like for example, the oil export the whatever the shipment will get pulled up for a day or two. And then suddenly it they know, okay, India is giving you without saying it so many words, get your act together. For 2 days, the killings will stop.

[00:18:47]And and it resumes, they go back. So this this kind of a cat and mouse game is not going to go far.

[00:18:53]And somewhere India needs to have a, you know, what I can say is something that these guys cannot give. Electricity they can't give.

[00:19:02]Nepal wants to use India's transmission network to give its excess electricity to Bangladesh because China tells the Nepal to do it. They tried this.

[00:19:14]So, I I I find it ridiculous. China is losing its pants and its underpants now, and it wants to go and help Bangladesh.

[00:19:24]Sir, this is where things stand right now.

[00:19:27]But, India's patience game is really paying off.

[00:19:31]That's That's how I see it. Amazing chess game going on. Sir,