Saylor's House of Cards and the Wipeout That Followed

本站添加: 2026-06-06

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome to an episode of Casual Friday. I'm here with the duck.

[00:00:04]As always, the show is brought to you by Kraken Pro. You can trade stocks, you can trade crypto, you can trade futures, you can trade margin. And because that wasn't enough products, they launched another one which is Kraken Prop. I know a thing or two about prop. The TLDDR on this type of product is that if you want to stop trading with your own money, that's kind of what this product is for.

[00:00:26]So, the way it works is you buy an account. It's all funny money demo stuff. If you make money in the demo account, they're like, "Cool, here's another account, but this one, if you make money in it, you can actually pull it out." That's the most compelling pitch I've ever heard in my life. But the actual cool stuff is that if you get absolutely washed and massacred on a day like this, instead of just blowing up your personal account, uh, you just lose the funny money demo trading account that you paid for. So, you know, you get an account for 50 bucks or 100 bucks or whatever account size you want. If the world implodes, all you lose is that 50 hundred bucks that you put up front. So, it's kind of like a call option type of structure. Uh, it lives inside Kraken Pro, which is cool. Uh, this product type in general has decent product market fit in crypto. We can do more shows talking about maybe the use cases for it or in which scenarios you'd use it. If there were a gun to my head, I'd basically say if you're a if you're someone who's overly impulsive and can't sit on their hands, but still wants to trade without all the financial consequences of trading uh your own account, this is a nice little thing to play around with to scratch the itch or when you have setups where you want to pile in a ton of risk but don't want to eat that on your personal account but still potentially capture some of the reward. That's also there. You know those like irresponsible breakout type of trades or breakdown trades or you want to like size into an altcoin that's up 50% on the day but you can't psychologically or rationally justify doing it on your own personal account.

[00:01:55]You can just outsource your autonomy to a demo account and if it goes well enough uh and you pass the you know evaluation challenge thing that could turn into real profits if you manage to do it again. Lightning strikes twice on the funded account. That's the worst pitch I've ever heard for a prop product. But hey, it's my first time hearing about this. Wink wink, nudge nudge. So, I'm sure I'll get some feedback. That's all from us. Let's get into the swing of things, Dom, because there's a lot of red on my watch list.

[00:02:21]Um, and the candles on my screen are also red. So, I'm not really sure what's going on. Maybe I've got the Chinese chart layout where red is red is up and and green is down, but it doesn't it doesn't really appear to be that way.

[00:02:34]Um, we have had the monthly. No, we've not. The monthly closes in [ __ ] 25 days. I don't know why I started off that tangent. Uh, and it looks kind of bad. Uh, the monthly is looking kind of bad with plenty of time and space to recover it. But I think the more >> pressingly bad time frames, the weekly and the daily. Last week's video title was this classic dramatic now or never.

[00:02:57]And apparently the answer is never and [ __ ] you at the same time. that that that's kind of how that's kind of how the market's looking. I don't know where you want to start, if the monthly is even worth it, where you want to get to this weekly full retrace back at the lows type of thing.

[00:03:12]>> I we can definitely talk about the monthly, but I think one thing that describes the situation right now perfectly is that Ccash is down 20% on the day and is still like an intraday move of like has like a bounce of 50%.

[00:03:25]Which is quite funny. Like it's overall still down 20% on this daily candle, but it's already up like 50% from the low, which is >> Yeah. Isn't that crazy? Crazy piece of news.

[00:03:38]>> It feels like an extra It feels like a real liver shot as far as the market goes cuz it's already been so [ __ ] weak, right? And then the market manages to converge around like the two and a half things that are going up and it's like, "Nope, this one's actually this one actually has like a critical exploit and we're going to completely nuke it."

[00:03:56]And there's a fair bit of cross margining going on too which I don't think helps. Right? There's this interesting microructure effect where you have like outlier coins and they accumulate a bunch of open interest and that open interest is being crossmargined and when those outlier strong coins get yeetated there's kind of a cascading/deleveraging effect even outside of that symbol uh as a whole and I think some of that is happening here but yeah crazy crazy V here um before hype and Zcash and also monad after you exit liquidity SpaceX IPO dumped on our heads according to the comments section and I obviously agree and I agree because those comments are left by me on burner accounts specifically but I do think we should talk about BTC first.

[00:04:40]>> Let's talk about BTC.

[00:04:41]>> So I think the well well the premise of the hey this this is the only spot where it's defensible which was the 71k monthly I think. Uh and then well well yes it's the same weekly level 71 73 you know basically the breakout level. was like, "Look, this is the only bullish thing about this chart is that when it broke out of 70K, it sort of made some space. Uh, and that there's there was enough room there for a reasonable pullback without looking too [ __ ] and completely breaking market structure."

[00:05:13]And it's like, as long as we're above the MAGA range high, as I like to call it, uh, the thing is obviously weak compared to everything else. Uh, but it's not like drastically evil. Um, even last week there there was some copy hedgy arguments made primarily by me because cope and hedge are my master art forms. But I think the argument was something along the lines of look even if you want to buy something at support or you want to like put on put risk on why would you choose BTC all else equal and then your cope was well I like BTC and I don't like anything else. How much do you like it now Don? [ __ ] you. Uh yeah, but that was the that was the sort of technical premise of like yeah, this is the this is the only level where it can look defensible and it I think failed it quite extravagantly. There are two days left for the weekly dawn. So you know a nice little >> a nice little weekend recovery can save this weekly but I don't think it's particularly likely and also sailor can't buy on the weekends. The only buyer of this market became a seller and that's that's not super helpful. So technical view um is a bit shitty I think. There's also the kind of fundamental one of a lot of forces converging at once. Michael say Michael Sailor selling the there's a there's actually a pullback in legacy world which I think is kind of understated at the moment as far as the impact it has.

[00:06:35]Both NASDAQ and S&P putting in candles that they don't usually put in. And by that I mean of the wrong color.

[00:06:40]>> A color that's broken.

[00:06:45]Yeah. They've been stealth mining the indices and it looks it looks pretty bad, bro. Um, but it's like all these forces converging at the same time. Like Michael Sailor sells a bit, the technical level fails, [ __ ] Zcash blows up, equities pull back, all these AI labs are being like, "Oh, our customers care about price now of their AI usage on enterprise level." Like there's a bunch of stuff going on at the same time. None of which is super helpful. So, I'd know where you want to start um decomposing this. Is it the BTC weekly chart? because that's what's on the screen and that would be helpful.

[00:07:17]>> BTC monthly. I think we can start start high level. Yeah, because I think that's actually really interesting. Something we talked about a bunch. Um I have like the the 2022, I think. No, it's still 2021. November 2021. Like that monthly candle, the top monthly candle from the prior all-time high. I have that one boxed out. That's kind of like my like my my my support that I have. the nearest one.

[00:07:45]Um, >> so from like 6 61 to 57. Um, and that's exactly where we are right now. And that's kind of what I've I've been saying >> is the risk that you carry when you're when you're long, right? Like going back here just makes sense to me. I generally, and this is something that I always look at, like whenever you have these very significant levels um on the chart, it the price kind of tends to gravitate gravitate towards them. And that's kind of what we're doing right now. And I think that's probably what we're going to do for the rest of the month. So, I think even if like we like go go a bunch lower, if we go like if we bounce a bunch towards the end of the month, we're probably going to be roughly where we are right now. like that's kind of where where I'm sitting right now where I think the market is going to go. Um so roughly like in this area. Um and then like we could we could go and have like a full breakdown towards 40k 45 which is next support I have. But I would still think that we're probably going to end the month around 60. So that opens up like a trade opportunity. If we do fully crash, then I definitely want to be buying the next support lower down. Um because you can just capture that um that bounce. Um uh but yeah, it's kind of like it makes sense to me that we are down here and usually I really like these kind of levels and I like them to buy. Um but given we have three more weeks to um to the close uh I'm going to wait for that one. And then two, we have that whole sailor situation where no one knows what the [ __ ] is going on. Um, I'm way too lazy and just generally way too stupid to read through all the documentation of all the ponzies he's been building.

[00:09:32]Talked about this last week, remember?

[00:09:34]Like when I was like, this is just all so Ponzi style.

[00:09:37]>> I mean, we talked about his empire becoming too vast and difficult to navigate. that that that almost feels like just purely vibe based plus dumb luck more than anything else, you know.

[00:09:49]Um, but yeah, Sailor Selling is a I think pretty material deal. Uh, and you know, the convexity that's built into >> also that's [ __ ] hilarious, isn't it?

[00:10:01]Yeah. Yeah. I'm also too dumb. But let me tell you about the convexity and the flywheel built into his empire. What the [ __ ] am I talking about? I don't know [ __ ] But what I do know is the basic premise of when you built these instruments where the its ability to go up is based on the market going up. There's usually a correlary to that where the same mechanism that makes you sore is the one that build you know brings you down essentially. Uh not not necessarily teruna style. I I find it really intellectually lazy when people just reach for the first appropriate analog.

[00:10:35]even if it is correct, you at least have to like make the mechanistic argument for it as opposed to being like, look, this thing is in my context window, therefore this is this thing. Uh I I don't think that's super compelling, but generally speaking, these like flywheel type self-reinforcing, convex, whatever descriptive language you want to use, stuff that generally goes up only eventually when those factors shift, uh go, you know, those things go down only. That's like the 50 IQ version of all these like flywheel reinforcement loops. And I just think we're seeing some of that now.

[00:11:10]>> Yeah. I mean, we've gone through this a bunch of times. I don't know why. Like every time like every cycle we get someone talking about the flywheel and then it like his like hilariously implodes and everything just [ __ ] dies and people like, "Oh [ __ ] we should have thought of that." Like it works both ways.

[00:11:26]>> Well, yeah. They end up being right about the flywheel. Um but forget that it works both ways.

[00:11:33]>> Yeah. And it's like and then the next cycle comes around and we go through the same [ __ ] thing again and people like oh no it's not going to work the other way around because yada yada y it's like no that's not how it works. Like >> oh bro remember that with DeFi that [ __ ] was so [ __ ] exhausting. It's like we'll never have a bare market again because you can get like 20% yield risk-f free in crypto and so the money will just stay there bro. and it's like okay thank you very much and then there was yeah the Salana will never go through a bare market that was in 2021 as well um and also more recently or like in general like there won't be correlated bare markets because all these amazing assets like Soul Luna AVAX uh and what was the other one [ __ ] Chili's or CHZ or that football that football card um altcoin they just pick like the strongest performers and say well because they're going up when BTC isn't that means they're not part of crypto. They are part of this magical subset of asset classes uh that is completely immune to all rules ever and therefore there will be no bare market.

[00:12:35]It's also very convenient that this kind of like crypto exceptionalism only happens on the way up only happens to the stuff you own uh and always means that you will continue making money.

[00:12:46]Like you'd think that would raise that would raise an eyebrow. But in general, the point here isn't to, you know, kick dead horses, but it's when when people start making particularly fantastical claims that would break a lot of precedent as far as how crypto has how this asset class uh has worked that, you know, that warrants some skepticism, especially when it's like, you know, talking about market structure changes, like I've done some of that, right? I'm like, crypto looks a bit different and here's why. I think that's sensible. people come up with entirely new category like hey this stuff is bare market resistant I'm like bro I don't know what that means I don't I don't have a frame of reference for this same behavior and people are like oh well because of insert madeup metric here you know rainbow chart stock to flow uh onchain support there you know they'll draw an imaginary line in the sand and say it's like mathematically impossible for this thing to not to go below this price like that category of claim just exists a crypto exists to blow those people up. It feels like sometimes. Um, and and I think we're seeing a bit of that now. So, I know that was a rambling [ __ ] side tangent, but when whenever like that level of absolutism just gives me so much PTSD from like every single cycle ever, you get the same type of person making the same type of claim and they usually meet the same type of fate, you know.

[00:14:10]>> Yeah. I I generally think with this with the sailor situation, there's a chance that it doesn't unravel this cycle. Um like that he he stays afloat. Like it's not like they're super super tight on on money as far as I understand it. Um but then like the reason why I think some of this freakout has been so large is that they sold 32 bitcoin. It's like it that that screams like, "Hey, we're really really tired of money. We have to sell that much." you know, like obviously a lot of people make the make the argument, hey, he was just testing the water, whatever, but it it sends like a really bad message, I think. Um, just generally that he's willing to sell and that he and then the amount is just kind of like funny. I think if he would have sold more, it would have probably been um been received maybe like the same if not better. Um, but here we are. Sailor has sold and now people are worried that he's going to sell much more. I don't necessarily think that has to happen this cycle. Like I said, um I don't think that needs to unravel the cycle, but it will have to unravel at some point and people just don't seem to get that. Um like like you you start building these kind of products, especially when it's like offering a high yield, like that stuff is going to go down eventually. like just crypto history like it's never not imploded.

[00:15:35]Um, and I think at some point that will, which is a bit like and I think everyone in crypto understands that like everyone that's been around for a while. It's just the newer people don't. And then um like that is preventing people from buying. Like the the one reason why I'm not buying right now like I'd be buying more. Um, >> no balls.

[00:15:55]>> It's Yeah, no balls. And also like the wholesaler thing is just like okay I one I don't like don't fully understand it.

[00:16:03]um I had much more of a grasp of the market before he did all the Ponzi stuff that he's doing and two like I don't want to be having that like that whole risk um without having any influence on it, right? Like there's nothing I can do about it. Um there's it's really hard for me to calculate how much risk I'm taking there and then I'm like no maybe I'll just chill for a little bit longer.

[00:16:26]And I think that's kind of like where the negative impact of sailor comes in.

[00:16:30]I think that's kind of like an an overhang where people are just like ah this is just like >> you think it's additional uncertainty basically.

[00:16:38]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:16:39]>> Yeah. I understand that like that's a dangerous argument to some extent and I'm sure you can see why cuz technically more doubts always come out as the market goes lower, right? Just like better news tends to emerge as the market goes higher. And that makes it very easy to fall into the trap of moving goalposts. Um, so like you know, let's say you want to buy a level and the market is moving down into it and you're like, "Okay, I'm ready." And then some sort of headline shows up or some bit of analysis and then you're like, "Ah, well that wasn't there before the market got here." And then you have to kind of reconcile it with your plan, right? And I think that's difficult because there's a fine line to tread between just becoming like a headline monkey and thinking, "Oh, I'm just going to wait until the, you know, the sky is completely clear before following my plan." and that just usually doesn't work. But at the same time, if it is like actually a material piece of information um that can blow your shitty candlestick line out of the water, uh that also then needs to be taken seriously. And I think that's just one of those things that's easier said than done. Like you always find a reason not to buy on the way down because it's scary or not to sell on the way up because it feels good. So a good system will be able to like discern what type of signal it is and whether it has any effect on you know the plan you created or how you execute your trades whatsoever. I think this one is pretty meaningful because we know for a while and we can see for a while that sailor was kind of the only buyer of this market. Um, ETFs have just [ __ ] off, right? They they've they've been selling and a lot of the bid has come from, I guess, cryptonatives, but also just like a lot of sailor raising money and piling in. And so then it's a question of when you take a sort of the dominant buying force in the market that's price insensitive and just sort of blasts it.

[00:18:34]When you take him out of the market and arguably, and I think this is the question mark, you don't take him, you don't just remove his buying pressure, but then he becomes a seller. What impact does that have on that same market? And I think that that's essentially what Bitcoin is wrestling with at the moment among all the other things that we that we spoke about earlier. Do you have any wisdom on that general point? Like you know this is actually a great meta example like you have a monthly [ __ ] level here, right? Monthly levels are generally a big deal that get a lot of importance.

[00:19:04]Then you have this piece of news that's pretty material I think at the same time. Like how do you do it? Do you defer more to technicals? Do you defer less to technicals? Do you do the research? Is there some nuanced balancing act? Like how do you reconcile those things?

[00:19:20]>> Yeah, I mean one I will have to look more into the the whole structure of this. Um which is really annoying. I find that very boring. I also cannot stand the the sailor ubris like whenever he talks about anything I just want to puke. Um always has been the case. Um but I'll just go through documentation a little bit at least. Um, but then also like I just give it a little bit more time like if this is the monthly level and I would like to see like a close around this level anyway. So like I have three weeks um until this monthly closes and then I can kind of re-evaluate. I think the next two months are going to be important ones. um given like let's say we close on this monthly level this month then we still have time to kind of nuke next month towards like lower supports and still rectify that by coming back above 60k. Um, so like it's like I have to act like in the next like 60 60ish days, which is a little bit of time, right? Like in in those 60 60-ish days, um, this whole thing has probably going to be like it's probably going to be discussed to to death on on all various channels. And also, we just have a little bit more info on what's going on. Um, and then I I will make my decision um based on that. But I generally like I like I look at this and I'm like this is the monthly level that just makes sense to me. I I kind of like it a lot. I think like that that's what I would like to see hold. Um it's still like on the monthly it's still a bull market. Um and this is kind of the line in the sand and people are freaking out and and rightfully so, right? But sentiment is really bad. People are freaking out like the the the favorite coins are nuking now. Like Ccash is nuking. hype is not like going down a bunch like like you have everything um going going in the way of okay people are actually just freaking out now. Um which is usually what I want to see at at at import important monthly levels, right? Like you have like bad sentiment plus a really good monthly level um plus like a significant pullback from the highest. That's usually something that interests me. Um so to to to answer your question is like I'm just going to have to give it a little bit more time. see what happens in the next three weeks and then and then go from there.

[00:21:41]>> Have to redo the title, right? This is the actual real level that matters.

[00:21:45]Final version V3.

[00:21:48]>> No. So, so I mean it depends on the time frame obviously like the the weekly thing that we talked about last week that was obviously that obviously had like a big impact, right? And that took us down. And I actually said this last week where I was like the monthly level is more important to me. But I the the the takedown of that weekly level obviously led to quite an impulsive move, right? Like that led to like a 16% drop. Um and a bunch of the other coins went down much more. Um and now we're actually at the monthly level where where the direction is chosen, I think, um of where we're going to go.

[00:22:24]>> Yeah. And I like I like where everyone like how everyone's freaking out, but also like you said the S&P's now pulling back. We have Sailor starting to sell.

[00:22:33]We have Ccash being being possibly exploited. Probably not, but possibly.

[00:22:39]Um and like all of that stuff together is just like a lot of uncertainty. Um so we'll see how it goes in the next three weeks. Yeah, I was I was honestly hoping for at least some fight at 70, but it just got completely [ __ ] creamed. Um I think like big picture now trading glasses off and more sort of what are the interesting big picture high time frame whatever levels on BTC. um like realistically speaking it's what above 70 at 55 to 60 or at 50ish right like that's sort of the >> pub talk chart view of BTC because above 70 it's like oh my god we're so back and this breakout is for real this time. Uh we had a failed breakout above it. We nuked on every bit of bad news ever and then whatever the outcome, we managed to make our way above it and two failed breakouts are rare. Send it. Send it. Um 73K plus weekly reclaim, whatever it is.

[00:23:45]I think that's defensible. I think 60K monthly is also defensible and that's a slightly different trade. Obviously, that's not a momentum recovery setup.

[00:23:54]That's a we've thrown the kitchen sink of [ __ ] at this thing and maybe it didn't go down as much as we thought it did. um type of setup.

[00:24:03]>> And then 50 is just like, okay, just kidding. The monthly is now falling apart and we're down. Now we're entering the kind of what is a reasonable correction from the pico top uh in terms of percentage decline, right? Uh cuz if you go from 126 down to sort of 50ish, you start to enter that like 60% historical, you know, uh old reliable bull market correction uh type of territory. And so that that's sort of like deep [ __ ] value meme uh discount levels. And I think really the fourth one is some some volatility related one that's less price related where V just completely [ __ ] falls off a cliff. uh and you just get a very long probably multi-month grind at that point where you maybe make incremental lows or incremental highs that that don't lead anywhere and then you just kind of position for a volatility regime shift.

[00:25:00]Um I think all of those are pretty defensible and they're for different people and they play out on different time frames and again all the nuances of trying to make a [ __ ] show for everyone and no one at the same time. Uh but yeah, the strength one I think is 70 plus. The hey local sentiment plus sort of monthly technical setup save the close whatever is around 60 round number. Uh and then the what the [ __ ] are we doing here but heyi ho no time like the present is sort of 4750ish.

[00:25:33]And then the non-pric one is basically volatility disappearing. Um, and this isn't one of those where it's like three scenarios up and down at both, you know, three * 2 * 3* 2 that many scenarios.

[00:25:47]This is having just one of those um if there were a gun to your head where you'd have to make bets. Um, depending on your time preference and risk appetite, etc., those would be the ones that stand out. I think out of those, to be fair, and correct me if I'm wrong, the ones that will probably need the most monitoring and precision would be the 70k reclaim one because by definition, you're sort of buying into strength, momentum, whatever. You have to chase the markets. You kind of have to be there. Uh, and then it's actually this one that we're in now with like sailor cloud plus big impulsive move into support plus a bunch of this correlation slop, etc. Those are the ones where you really have to kind of lock in and pay attention if you're going to do it and juggle time frames and do all of that stuff. The others, the volatility drift one and then the okay, the market's [ __ ] gone one, I think are a bit more uh hands hands off.

[00:26:38]Do you agree with the framing overall, am I missing any big buckets here?

[00:26:42]>> No, I agree. And one thing that I do want to say about the whole sailor situation and and why like why I'm like a little bit more defensive than I usually would be is because I know how people like the bigger bigger people in crypto work. They see like they see blood in the water and they're just kind of like [ __ ] yeah let's kill him. Um and I kind of like that freaks me out a little bit and the question is is sailor actually like huntable and they will know. And that's the thing like all of this data is publicly available. there's like you can look into that enough to find out like whether he's actually going to be able uh to get out of it or not like sailor that is um it's just like a whole lot of like financial understanding that you need probably more more like a team job like a like a proper like you have a bunch of people working on it kind of thing and then like that kind of stuff is like where I'm like it's not necessarily only like oh the market is weak it's like is someone actively trying to on sale. I don't necessarily think so from my gut feeling, but it's something that also just generally um whenever someone takes a bunch of risk and does stupid [ __ ] comes up in crypto. I >> mean, sailor hunting himself by the looks by the >> Yeah. I mean, he's just being really [ __ ] stupid, right? Like he does like at every single turn you're like, "Oh, yeah, but now now you must have had enough, right?" And then he does something more stupid and you're like, "What the [ __ ] are you doing, bro?" like how can you buy for 10 years it like since 10k and be underwater like a stupid amount even in percentage terms. It's like >> that's such a stupid stupid way to go about it.

[00:28:18]>> But then the counter point is that Michael Sailor himself can't lose cuz he's like a gigabionire, right? So this is like house money for him. He's like I'm either going to be the greatest financial alchemist in history or I'll be a billionaire, you know? Like it's the failure case here is uh pretty pretty compelling.

[00:28:36]>> Yeah, that's really annoying, right?

[00:28:37]Like I hate that. Like obviously like he got super rich off of this. Like the the the whole way he did it made himself super rich and like also his shareholders. So people are going to be like, "Oh yeah, but he only did what's right." It's like, nah, bro. Like all of this all of this bid that went into Micro Strategy could have gone into crypto without the middleman >> and my altcoins more importantly.

[00:29:03]>> Yeah. I mean we would have hoped for Bitcoin mainly but >> but you know what I mean like that's just like that this is money gone that goes to like M like Michael Sailor and his shareholders um that could have otherwise been spent better but is what it is. Um, but yeah, the way he's done it, it just seems seems kind of like self-destructive in a way and that kind of freaks everyone out and that's why everyone's kind of on the fence, which normally like yeah, like normally when when you have that situation, everyone's afraid and no one knows exactly what's going on. That's like a good good time to be looking for buys. Um, so we'll see if that plays out again or not. Um, if we get if we get nuked by Sailor, that'd be like what do you think price would go to if if if Sailor like just starts like selling by the bucket load like >> sub 50?

[00:29:58]>> Yeah. I mean that like and that's that's the thing like how low would we go if you actually start selling like a shitload and the answer is like I mean that could like if you fully unravel >> I mean people would just step away right like it obviously depends like if it's like micro micro strategy has to like sell all of its bitcoin no one would quote anything and it would like [ __ ] you know >> that's crazy we go sub 10k and and that's the thing like like for real like if he started obviously he he won't and people don't need to freak out that he will. But like that's the thing and that's that's what kind of people are starting to make a mental model for ever since he started selling even though it was only a tiny tiny bit. It's like technically if he wants to get out of everything he has there's really realistically no market for it, right?

[00:30:46]Like I don't think he can sell like you said like there's not going to be a quote like you're going to just go to unrealistic prices.

[00:30:54]>> Um which is really annoying. Like did we really need this in in in our market like a person that can >> of course we did. It's crypto. We always need like an existential risk baked into the whole thing. Uh absolutely we do.

[00:31:06]>> Thank you.

[00:31:07]>> Yeah. Yeah. Precisely. Um, I don't know about you, but like, you know, I I gave the highlevel breakdown of like, you know, 70K momentum, 60K, news, FUD washing out, 50K, something's gone terribly wrong, like, and then volatility drift as the four big buckets. For me personally, I >> I don't really know what would have to happen for them to for any of those to become compelling. If I had to stack rank them out of preference, I would prefer either volatility drift or a 60k breakdown. Um, because I can at least turn my brain off, you know, at 50, 40, whatever scary number, cuz I'm like, okay, well, this is either going to be great or my industry's gone to zero and nothing matters anyway. I'm giving [ __ ] behind the KFC. Uh, and I wouldn't say I'm unrecognizable, but that's what I do on weekends anyway. But at least I'm forced to be there. I think that's the big difference. Uh but then the volatility drift one is nice cuz it's less price specific. You know, you're not like waiting for a specific reaction or candle close. It's more like, yeah, I think this regime is getting a bit tired and I'm just going to hold. Now, the issue with like the 60K one and the 70k plus is pretty similar to the argument made last week, which is if you're going to blast risk, is that really the, you know, is Bitcoin the place you want to do it? And like those the 60k and 70k plus are like the more short-term options whereas the the whole industry [ __ ] goes to zero or volatility drift are the longer term options and I'm skewing more towards the longer term ones at least preferentially because it it allows more money to change hands and it's more of a kind of temporal timebased whatever reset and wash out as opposed to it's the same asset just like a slightly better or slightly worse level. I'm not explaining the super well. But do you roughly get like what I'm pointing towards? It's almost like two different types of Bitcoin. Like 60K Bitcoin and 70K Bitcoin is still like the same piece of [ __ ] crypto market been underperforming Bitcoin that's been plaguing us since what October of last year. Whereas I feel like if we get like a proper [ __ ] wipe out something scary or if we just get pure volatility, death and drift that that's almost like a different Bitcoin that can uh regain some of its previous properties and shed some of that skin. That's a very handwavy type of mental model, but I think it roughly lines up with how these things have played out in the past, which is why out of the four, you know, buckets of trades that I mentioned, I prefer the slower moving ones or the like not necessarily slower moving, but those kind of where the time frames are expanded as opposed to, hey, it's the same Bitcoin, but 10K either side, you know? Does that make any sense or do you completely disagree? Yeah, you you're you're basically saying, I don't want to buy this piece of [ __ ] right now. I'll give you some time.

[00:34:01]>> Yeah, that's basically what I'm saying.

[00:34:03]And look, the the obvious counterargument is like if this is some sort of mega money handchanging bottom and it just [ __ ] rips from here, then I will just be sidelined/ underexposed, you know? Uh, and that's the correlary of having this uh, you know, having the preferences that I expressed. But I'm I'm kind of okay with that personally.

[00:34:24]It almost takes me back to last week's argument where it's like everything is pulling back, right? Like the entire watch list except the the dollar and BTC dom is red and it's if I'm going to blast risk into anything, I don't want it to be in like the same Bitcoin that's been underperforming since October of last year. Um I I'll go pile into SpaceX and be exit liquidity for Silicon Valley instead or something.

[00:34:48]>> Yeah, that sounds like a really bad idea.

[00:34:52]Yeah, that we should talk about that trade by the way. Like there's a bit of a monster coming up, right? Like there's the SpaceX IPO, Anthropic filed for IPO, Open AI. I mean, those two companies are just neck and neck in everything they do. So, that is probably not too far behind. That that's that's well, first of all, I think that's already sucking up a lot of liquidity. Uh, and I I don't think that's helping crypto whatsoever.

[00:35:16]Uh but perhaps more interestingly is whether those mega IPO trades are just like generational cyclical exit liquidity type of events or whether there's something more interesting going on next. I think if you talk to most people they're like oh yeah well this is just like pure, you know, it's like the crypto scam on a mega level.

[00:35:37]These things are just IPOing uh with high FDV, low flow and then they're going to dump on retail and then go to [ __ ] zero. And that could be true in the short term, but I I think it it's worth some closer scrutiny because if you have some like skitso version of the world where just you know AI inference scaling compute capability like go to infinity then you just want to own these things especially after a wash out right it's kind of like Bitcoin where someone's like oh well this is like an obviously overvalued thing and it's a bubble and it goes from you know whatever 14K to 6K or 3K and then haha I was right it's dead and then you [ __ ] blink and it's at 100K. Um, there is a world in which these hyper speculative dotcomy mega IPO things where the retail wash out event if it happens doesn't mean they're dead forever. And the case that keeps me up at night is where I think I'm [ __ ] 150 IQ sitting here being like, "Oh, these things are so overvalued, bro."

[00:36:38]And this is like an obvious exit liquidity event. So, I'm just going to wait. And then once all the people who are not as smart as me get rinsed by this market, I will swoop in [ __ ] Prince Charming style and buy this thing and ride it into the sunset. And then instead, what happens is it dips like 3% and then goes to [ __ ] infinity.

[00:36:57]That's the other thing keeping me up at night. So, >> bro, it's already at infinity. Like >> infinity squared. Okay. Whatever. We can start adding zeros. I don't know if you where you've been, but nothing means anything anymore. But do you have a view on so look BTC TLDDR I think we've kind of talked about right 60 70k are like the trading levels 50k is like sailor is [ __ ] imploding or something scary is going on otherwise volatility drift if you don't want to play the price levels I think that's more than fair for BTC uh as far as this like and we're we'll talk about ETH soul hype monad lol and other alts in a second but this looming trade of just you know mega AI exit liquidity mega trillion contemporary ous IPO. Have you looked into the Have you looked into it? Do you have a view on it? Um, out of those three buckets, you know, exit liquidity and death, exit liquidity in Phoenix, or just straight momentum ripper, do you have a have you spent any time thinking about this?

[00:37:56]>> Uh, yes, a little bit. Now, I I'm not the the biggest expert on on anything but crypto. on even in crypto I would say it's limited but um like I I' to me this is kind of like we had the the nice old 2017 season in in in the stock market um with like the whole AI stuff um kind of like the old season everything and um then then the the the futures launched right you remember how how great that was going to be for the market in >> Oh yeah bro it was gonna yeah that was that was fun Um, and I still remember people making the argument like, "Oh, this is actually going to be bearish."

[00:38:37]Um, and then people were like, "Yeah, but everyone saying this was is going to be bearish, so it's actually going to be bullish." And then like it's just [ __ ] mega nuked. And I kind of feel like like that that parallel kind of checks out. Like I don't necessarily think this is a super bullish event for the markets. like that's a whole lot of liquidity um that you need with these kind of price points that all of these have.

[00:39:06]Um so generally I think that's probably going to be bearish. Now is it going to recover? And the answer is probably yes.

[00:39:15]Like I think it's like it's the same kind of cycle that Bitcoin went through in 2017 and 2018 um with the old coins.

[00:39:23]I don't know how quickly that's going to play out, but like I' i'd be I'd be shocked if this was like a bullish event. At best, it's gonna like I think it's going to take a while to like stabilize after this, but I think it's it's more like a bad bad thing for markets. Um, but that's just my going thesis. I don't really have like too strong an opinion on it, but like I look at it and I'm like I see the same kind of arguments floating where people like yeah but like obviously that this is bearish but since everyone is like this is bearish it's actually bullish and then it's like I I seen this before like I don't know like when everyone >> Yeah. It's like everyone's kind of like on that level of thinking because they cannot even fathom the fact that like something just can go down for a while after having gone up infinite. Um like I don't necessarily like that for the markets, but then again it's not my main market. It's not what I like what I do fulltime. Yeah. Um so so it's not like you need you need a suicide stack, bro.

[00:40:25]That's what it feels like. It feels like one of those trades, you know? Dad, what did you do during the [ __ ] generational singularity equities gigab bubble? And it's like, well, I was earning yield on treasuries, you know?

[00:40:37]>> Yeah. Do do you remember what happened with every single suicide stack in crypto?

[00:40:42]>> Yeah. With [ __ ] zero.

[00:40:45]>> It was the cause of many suicides. Yeah, that's that's very real. So, I don't know that that's something that like keeps me up not keep I mean keeps me up at night as a as a metaphor. But I am super curious because like I I don't think you can look at crypto in just a pure bubble anymore at the very least because it's been trading like a piece of [ __ ] And so that leads to an investigation of like where is the volatility and also where is the money going? Where's the liquidity sync? And it used to be crypto but it's not anymore. It's this it's the AI trade and all of its derivatives and the semiconductors and the general passive bid in equities as a result and the whole S&P 500 S&P uh sort of index breadth and depth. And it's the graphics cards and the GPUs, which is the same thing, and the semiconductors, like it's that, you know. And then the final the the angel on top of the Christmas tree are these like mega IPOs. And I just feel like as a trader in the year 2026, some mind share should go towards those things and how they're related. even if you're not going to [ __ ] trade them and hold them, I think having a view on how they pan out and over what time frames as a pure crypto trader is still relevant. And I think that's just kind of the reality of the of the market we're in now. I mean, realistically, what's going to happen is I'm probably going to top blast the suicide stack and DCA too early and then just be underwater for ages and then hope the singularity bails me out because if it doesn't, I'm still going to get UBI with like a robot feeding me chips and jerking me off so I don't like increase my carbon footprint or or whatever the [ __ ] the future's going to look like.

[00:42:22]>> That's There you go. You can't lose.

[00:42:24]It's a win-win. Like either I get generationally wealthy off the singularity trade or there's a robot jerking me off. Like explain to me how I could lose if if if those are the two outcomes.

[00:42:37]>> Oh man. Um speaking of robots jerking me off, uh ETH is down 10%. You were telling me it's going to 5K. I think you're disgusting. Suddenly >> I I I literally said if it goes above if it goes above 2.5 then it's going to five and it never went above 2.5. It never >> I mean you were saying this is the best.

[00:42:59]You were like this is Bear's last stand and like last stand implies you know they're getting beaten up and this is a final brave attempt. Instead they're here with a boot right up your ass.

[00:43:12]>> No, no, no. I mean Bears were still in control, brother.

[00:43:17]Patriots in control, bro. Um, yeah. I mean, this looks like a piece of [ __ ] I don't I don't really know what to Have you seen how much money Tom Lee has lost?

[00:43:28]>> Yeah, actually.

[00:43:30]>> And now he's doing the um stretch equivalent, >> I think, for like there's going to be a yield product >> for >> Yeah. 10% or something.

[00:43:39]>> Yeah, dude. I I don't even know. I think there's some sort of range though, right? Is that a thing? Do we do we care about those anymore? like eyeball in the weekly 1 1.5k for one Russian Ethereum would is that a is is there something here don >> I mean it is at range low and it's not the first time that you've seen like double bottoms on on on ETH right like if you look back on 2022 for example like June uh July and December like that was like you had like the the low and then you bounced the bounce came back and then actually went up um but to me this like same kind of story as Bitcoin like the the monthly and and like Bitcoin you have like we are right now at the monthly support that we that we need to be at. Um with ETH we are trading below it. So Eve actually needs to do some rescuing into the monthly close. Um for me if is still the same story like I just I'm waiting for the first bullish sign and then I'm happy to jump in. So far we haven't gotten any.

[00:44:38]Like the the monthly close that I wanted above 2.5 never happened. Um, now we're kind of in this situation where I would like the monthly this monthly to close above 2K. Um, and if that doesn't happen, there's going to be like like a monthly close at 1K and so on. And I want to have at least one bullish thing happen before I pull the trigger on this. Um, and so far nothing's happened.

[00:45:03]Um, it is at a low like it is like at an area that might be interesting and we could be like I could be saying this at the bottom. Um, but I don't really care.

[00:45:12]Um, I just want to see one bullish thing happen for ETH and then I'm happy to happy to take a stab at it. Until then, not really.

[00:45:21]>> Yeah. I don't know how how completely like contaminated my brain is at this point, but I used to be able to just look at the technical charts and be like, that's worth a stab. But now I immediately default to, but if I'm going to buy stuff, why would I buy ETH? And then I'm like, well, why would I buy crypto? And then my brain goes towards like just go top blast the South Korean index or like SpaceX or you know in in Nvidia or something else like >> yeah I think at some point at some point that has to be undone again I likely right like just purely >> yeah just generally people write off crypto so easily. Yeah. No, I think like like generally when you think about it, even if that whole AI thing comes to fruition, like it's a really good synergy with crypto, like I think that makes a whole lot of sense. Um, but crypto is just like so hated right now and understandably so. like a bunch of people just rinsed the entirety of retail out of all of their money um by promoting meme coins to them and other things and the market is down so people hate it even more. But I generally think there is going to be a time where that thinking has to change. Um but I'm not saying it's right now like I like the the bubble there is still running hot and it can run on for much longer than than you'd think. Um, but it's going to be an interesting one with the IPOs. Like I think that's going to be an interesting inflection point. It's either going to be where everything just heats up and goes for the like the mega push. Um, or it's where where it fully implodes. I don't think there's necessarily like an in between there.

[00:46:59]>> I think crypto will eat correlated [ __ ] if it implodes though, at least in the short term. like maybe we decouple probably >> but I can't see a world where this like equities bubble burst type of thing and then in the same vein without eating some [ __ ] up front crypto is like oh now we rotate to crypto I think it can happen after like I don't know like maybe right but at least my mental model for that is we get dragged down but then we become the fastest horse potentially or like that's what the recovery model looks like as opposed to oh this we decouple the moment it breaks down seems uh fanciful but would definitely leave me with my [ __ ] pants around my ankles.

[00:47:37]>> Yeah, I don't necessarily think that's that's that's very likely either. Like if anything like something that I could see like let's see let's say like the the the the bubble pops and then like everything's down a bunch and then like crypto goes down with it immediately and then bounces just like a day or two or three later.

[00:47:55]>> Yeah, something like that case.

[00:47:57]>> Fair enough. like that's where you I don't necessarily think you would get the whole oh yeah, we're rotating immediately. I that's just seems very very far-fetched. Um so yeah, I don't necessarily think that's that's going to be the case. But yeah, Eve basically just needs to show some strength and hasn't um on both.

[00:48:17]>> Look at this monthly man, right? Like >> ever since 4 well ever since the tops like one, right? Two, three, four, five, six, tiny bounce, two more like this is a heavy heavy trend, dude.

[00:48:32]>> Yeah. If you want to see something better on the monthly, go to soul because that has been monthly since the pico top. Like it's only been red monthly since the top.

[00:48:41]>> Wow. I mean, where does this even I mean, the weekly is broken down now, right? I feel I think that's a pretty relevant point cuz it spent from basically the beginning of the year at this sideways range and now that's that's broken.

[00:48:55]>> Um >> so that's not great. I don't know where you'd look levels wise for this. There's like a bit of Yeah.

[00:49:04]>> Uh I mean there's a nice nice support level at 40 and I still remember talking about this. You remember when we were talking about like what's below 120 and I was like yeah 40. Yeah, I do remember that. Unfortunately, >> it's like that seemed so unrealistic and people were making fun of it and it kind of seems like that's not that far anymore. Like that's just percentage points.

[00:49:24]>> It's a couple of sailor bad decisions.

[00:49:27]>> Um, yeah, soul looks rough. I mean, it's looked looked rough for a while. We talked a sufficient amount of [ __ ] about it as it was going sideways and it's it's lower now. But again, look, my mental affliction strikes. I'm like, even if this thing hits a monthly level, do I want to be buying soul? And like I'm not sure, right? Like in the universe of hey, I think this thing is oversold and I want like a quick, >> you know, even if it's for a short-term mean reversion trade um >> that I'm just not convinced this ranks particularly highly. Like I think in general like the effect we're seeing now, right, is that the market is pretty [ __ ] correlated. It it's a result of just how crypto behaves. It's a result of how how it moves in tandem historically. There are crossm margining sort of microructure effects as well, right? Like people just tend to rebalance in buckets, all of that. But my approach has always been if something is going to get dragged down mechanically, then you look for the stuff that is sort of being forced down as a result of that market effect and is more likely to be mispriced. So if something in general is like super [ __ ] strong and then gets dragged down by these correlations and whatever other external forces, then I think there's a higher chance or in general that that's where you want to look for a recovery. Like it's more likely to be mispriced if there if there are other things pushing it around. And so like in that case, this sort of reminds me of the old Bitcoin S&P meme, but like hype, right? Like if the crypto market's going to eat [ __ ] and I want to put on some risk, why wouldn't I buy hype over a lot of these other things? Now, there are some context clues and some, you know, specific carveouts you can make. Like, if something's up like a shitload or it's an AI man, sorry, AI lol oi manipulated crime coin and, you know, the relative strength is a complete [ __ ] artifact, so on and so forth.

[00:51:18]You can make exceptions, but generally speaking, it's like, hey, this is a thing I want to own. This is a thing that's been strong and I think it's getting particularly mispriced by the broader market effects, you know, correlation or force selling or cross margining or whatever it is that gives you, I think, a much more actionable list of things to pump. It's like if you think crypto is going to recover, it's like, well, how do you pick a horse?

[00:51:40]Well, okay. Well, what what do you want to own and what's been strong and what's more likely to be mispriced mispriced than everything else if everything's getting yeed at the same time? And I think if you look for strength and I mean hype comes up, I think that's pretty reasonable. And in terms of technical levels, I think it's also quite helpful where it's like what between 50 and 57ish, like the 50s is this sort of post breakout, the last bit of structure, consolidation, whatever you want to call it. That's not a terrible place to do business if you think the market's going to bounce, right? Um, and then if you're wrong, you're wrong about everything. But then if you're right, you're more likely to at least benefit and and see it through. Like we used to there used to be more of a I guess guarantee to use extreme terms that you would buy something that was you could buy any [ __ ] basically that was red. And because the market was so easy to lift, if you got the turnaround time right, it wouldn't really matter that much uh your asset selection. You'd basically get bailed out by that same correlation that drag you down. But that's not as true anymore, right? Like the dispersion now and the how hard something bounces and how much it goes down, you could quite p plausibly time the BTC bottom, but if you pick wrong, it's like you didn't time the BTC bottom. Like it doesn't it doesn't matter because the performance is so [ __ ] So in terms of like >> alts specifically, I think that's a not that's not the dumbest framework to use.

[00:53:06]And then in terms of what fits into that bucket, I think hype in the 50s is is pretty decent. What do you think?

[00:53:13]>> Yeah, I mean hype hype looks quite strong still. Um it does remind me a little bit of the whole link thing. Do you remember like where we had like >> Oh jeez, what like too strong in a bare market and never does it again.

[00:53:26]>> Yeah. And then just like everyone was like, "Yeah, link is great." Um but we already have exposure. Um and that I'm not saying that's going to happen with hype. It's just like something that kind of like at this point starts ringing my head. Um but yeah, I I agree it's it's really strong like in in the like at 53 maybe. Um like that' be a reasonable pullback target. Um if it pulls back more just generally like betting on the fastest horses is is really good. Um you just have to realize when they stop being the fastest horses. Um but that's going to be quite apparent. Um and until then that's where where you bet. It's like with Ccash, right? That was the fastest horse. Um, and now I think >> it got shot in the [ __ ] head.

[00:54:10]>> Yeah. Now I think it's probably not.

[00:54:11]>> Can we talk about Zcash, by the way? I think for hype it's pretty straightforward. Like if you think BTC is going to bottom, then hype around this bit of structure in the 50s is one of the better available bets within the ecosystem. And then if you're mentally ill like me, you're like, well, if I'm going to buy something, why would I buy crypto? Let me go top blast some like a liquid [ __ ] semiconductor uh and get carried out that way. But yeah, Zcash uh for those living under a cave, there was a security I mean how what how do I phrase this correctly? We don't know whether there was an exploit.

[00:54:45]>> Yeah, it was exploit possible.

[00:54:47]>> Yeah, they patched a possible exploit and published it. Uh and now supposedly they'll be able to and this is where it goes far above my pay grade. Um the the claim is that you can actually verify whether the exploit took place or not.

[00:55:03]And I think that's the product of some of this bid, right? It's like, okay, headline comes out, this thing has been exploited, there are infinite coins, [ __ ] dump it to zero. And then it comes out and the current narrative is that that's basically a falsifiable claim and that the evidence is, you know, that the foundation or whoever else will present some evidence uh or it's provable that even though the exploit was real, you can demonstrate that it wasn't actually implemented or action. Yes. And I think that's some of the bid right now and also the reason for the crazy wick because it went from oh my god this thing has infinite coins to hey maybe nothing happened and this is just like an academic document you know.

[00:55:46]>> Do do you think there's a trade here?

[00:55:48]Like >> is it worth [ __ ] I mean I know it's bounced a shitload but would you buy some just for the recovery candle if it comes out or is it too late? You think that's what we're seeing?

[00:55:58]>> I I I think this kind of like the I mean it probably nothing happened, right?

[00:56:02]like my base case is nothing happened. I think price action would be different if someone had infinite coins. Um but just the possibility of it like it's going to freak people out I think. So you can you can take that trade and be like yeah I mean um that there's not going to be infinite coins so people are like this FUD is overblown. But this coin went up infinite, right? And it went up infinite based on the fact that people were like, "Oh yeah, this is like so much cooler than everything else and it's it's like even cooler in Bitcoin."

[00:56:36]And then the fact that this was possible kind of takes the wind out of it sales a little bit, I think. And the fact that it's like that you couldn't tell right now if it actually happened and you couldn't tell for years if that exploit was possible or not. Like until it was found basically people didn't know. I mean, obviously that's always the case.

[00:56:55]That's a [ __ ] stupid argument to make. Um, but just generally, >> but generally like it's just like the fact that this was around for so long and and and then the fact that we couldn't tell at least at the current moment. I don't know if that's actually true that that they they might be able to figure out um if it like if if it's 100% not happened or not, but just generally all of that is probably just going to take the wind out of the oh this is an outlier sales. Um which makes it just a normal coin from this point onwards in the best of cases and in the worst case something did happen and then you're per like if if something did happen probably just going to go to zero. um that's not necessarily like a trade that I want to take. Um there's obviously bounce plays and the the current one being being the the obvious ones like the 50% up is quite a bit but for me this is not the trade. Like I'm not really interested. If I was like a Ccash researcher and I know that I can find a way to prove whether this is like 100% didn't happen or did happen or whatever. Um then I would probably trade with that insider information. Um but >> to everyone's surprise, you are not a Zcash researcher.

[00:58:15]>> Exactly.

[00:58:16]>> I've got Monad on the chart um on the screen rather and it is back at the lows. You told everyone to buy at 34 cents >> and terribly such a liar.

[00:58:27]>> You kept doubling down. It was really worrying. I sent you some messages that I'm happy to share with the channel for transparency. Asking you for more transparency. Asking you for more updates. checking in on the wellness level to see if you were okay, but then you kept sending me these hieroglyphics and it was quite concerning. Uh so now that you're here seemingly lucid, which has been a pretty rare artifact, um for the last few weeks, could you perhaps tell us uh what's going on here and why you behave the way that you behaved?

[00:59:00]>> Yeah, I mean market's been [ __ ] huh?

[00:59:04]>> Perfect.

[00:59:05]>> Yeah, I mean that's just basically how it is. When did you dump this thing?

[00:59:09]>> I I haven't actually. I'm still like I've fully rounded >> really.

[00:59:13]>> So yeah, so I bought 0.021 0.022 and now it's fully round.

[00:59:20]>> Okay.

[00:59:20]>> Um >> you you are still a crypto investor at your core.

[00:59:24]>> Yeah. I'm I'm just kind of like >> you just don't do I don't know. Feels that way.

[00:59:30]>> No, I mean I I prefer if it got go >> I mean what you gave back half. This is like your ETH roundtrip trade. Like down 50%. Ah, whatever, bro. Like, it's >> Yeah, it is pretty much it pretty much exactly like my E round trip. Um, no, it's just kind of like the market's just generally been bad. Um, like when you compare it to Bitcoin, like it's actually just gone sideways. um since I bought it. Like it's exactly where where like Monet BTC basically like Monet USD divided by Bitcoin USDT is is above where I bought it at um by 10%. Um while the entire rest of the markets just kind of [ __ ] the bed, make new lows. Um but also like that doesn't really help the fact that I just roundt tripped like 50%. Which is really [ __ ] stupid.

[01:00:19]>> #transparent. You're very bad at this influencer thing because you're supposed to say that you sold the pico top and then you're supposed to find the corresponding tweet that's sufficiently.

[01:00:29]>> Go on.

[01:00:29]>> I I I even like I did a solo show and um I that was at 0.028 and I was like like this looks like [ __ ] basically. Um could have easily taken the way out of like oh yeah I told you it's [ __ ] I told you the the setup's invalidated. I sold when the setup was invalidated. Nah, I just like I just round trip the whole thing. Um, I'll think about what to do.

[01:00:53]>> [ __ ] legend.

[01:00:55]>> But it's just how it is. And I mean, >> yeah, with Bitcoin, I'm also like people people now say I bought 80.2 like 82K.

[01:01:03]>> Nice. Good entry, bro.

[01:01:05]>> Yeah, >> that's a sale level sailor level entry.

[01:01:08]>> That's a sailor level entry. That's pretty impressive.

[01:01:10]>> What did you buy?

[01:01:11]>> I I bought 70. Um, so I'm also underwater on that. Um, by like 10%. Um, I would buy more.

[01:01:18]>> And you still have the audacity to run a trading show.

[01:01:21]>> Yeah, it's it's crazy.

[01:01:23]>> Down 50%, ignored myself, down 10%, might buy more, but sailors scaring me.

[01:01:30]See you next week.

[01:01:31]>> Yeah, I mean like I'm I'm I'm all like ready to buy more, but then like everyone like like all the the big multi market participants are all retards for some reason. And then you have like overhang from SA and like you have you have ETH the same situation developing.

[01:01:49]Um obviously it's a little bit different on the E side. The E side is less bad.

[01:01:54]Um but yeah just generally wish people >> BTC doesn't agree with you.

[01:01:59]>> No, I'm not saying that the the ETH price is I'm saying like the the Tommy Lee or whatever his name is like the the whole like Bit Main stuff. Um like it's it's less bad than the than the mic.

[01:02:16]>> Yeah. I mean if they start introducing like the whole yield stuff and then >> they're lever levering up to the tits at that point I' I'd be like okay this whole industry is just going [ __ ] >> substratum this guy ASAP if you know you know. Uh, and then the final bit, and it is 11:25 on a Friday night, and as you know, with my budding social life, I've got plans at the club. Is that a thing?

[01:02:42]Uh, a table. I've got a table at the club and they're going to do that thing where they bring out the bottles and I put crypto Twitter inside jokes on the on the tablet thing and take pictures.

[01:02:51]>> Oh, wow.

[01:02:52]>> Yeah, that's the stuff you do.

[01:02:54]>> And then get hit with a [ __ ] wrench.

[01:02:57]>> You're such a social butterfly.

[01:02:58]>> I know, dude. Obviously, don't act surprised. But yeah, there are some Look, have you seen the daily candles on um NASDAQ and the S&P? I mean, >> and gold, too. Gold's down 3%. Um >> Yeah, true.

[01:03:13]>> Like, >> so that's not helping at the very least.

[01:03:15]>> No, I mean, the only reason why Bitcoin is down is because obviously because >> because it was so good otherwise. Also, that's this is not a small move from the high. That's like 6% on >> No, I mean it's not the biggest ones we've had in a long time.

[01:03:31]>> It's pretty meaty, bro. Like it gave back the last two weeks of drift basically.

[01:03:36]>> I I actually don't remember like such a candle happening in a long time on the S&P. Um like just scrolling through that is like the biggest candle I see even like for capitulation candles that we that we had a couple.

[01:03:49]>> Yeah.

[01:03:49]>> Um besides besides like in like terrace stuff.

[01:03:52]>> Yeah. April 25. You can see there's some around October as well, but that's more of an opening closing type of thing.

[01:04:01]Yeah, indices are generally supposed to like drift up and make everyone rich.

[01:04:04]So, I mean, this is >> this is pretty illegal as far as I'm concerned.

[01:04:08]>> In my opinion, we're entering like a new paradigm. Like, we've have entered a new paradigm where like the stock market is trading like all coins in 2017 18. Like there's clearly something that isn't correct. Like there's clearly some some problems that we have. um like and and that's not going to end well. It's just a question of where exactly are we in that cycle and that's for everyone else to decide for themselves. Um to me um we're quite advanced like that like the stuff that we've been seeing is quite ridiculous but I the one thing that I've learned in crypto is that the ridiculousness can go on for longer than you'd think. So like shorting stuff is not necessarily always the best option.

[01:04:52]um taking risk off the table. That's probably always kind of like sensible at some point. Um so yeah, I don't know. I look at this stuff and I'm like, this is quite crazy.

[01:05:05]Um and I don't think anyone that is somewhat reasonable can look at this and it be like, oh yeah, this is like normal state of affairs.

[01:05:13]>> Yeah, we're just desensitized to it, but we were getting one shot in 2017 by the volatility and the momentum and the trend effect, etc. I'm sure it's happening to a lot of um nent investors and traders in the space. Although I will say that generally speaking, there should always be like a bucket of stuff where especially as a speculator, you stay away from speculation. Like a lot of the quantity type of friends that I have and guys that are super active in markets, you'll speak, especially if they're more sort of traditional background like actually work at a you know trading firm or have a trading job or whatever else it is. um they they have this bucket of stuff that they as a rule don't touch or trade. Like a lot of them will you know intraday punt all this stuff or you know they have a quant job whatever it may be but then for their own personal account they'll just like shove it into a tax advantageous ETF and never look at it and never trade it. Um, and I think that should be the job of these like I think day trading indices is both understandable but also a plague because if you take that away then there's absolutely nothing left for reasonable risk but more passive investing which I think is a useful category to exist uh and it exists for a reason and then if everything becomes like hyper gamblified essentially and you have to speculate on absolutely everything and everything is now short timeframe trading etc. I think that's kind of net bad especially if you look at the results of short-term trading for most people most of the time it's not particularly good. Uh yeah and especially for crypto like I think you can quite easily trade and take advantage of the volatility in these single name stocks or even some of these indices etc. But like there should I don't know, maybe this is the boomer in me speaking, but there should be a part of your portfolio that's a passive and that b doesn't kind of wake you up in a cold sweat and it's not the first thing you check every single morning and then freak out and you know >> open the app on your phone or run to your computer. That that's a really nice thing to nice thing to have.

[01:07:22]>> And that's the paradigm we are in right now, right? where it's like everyone is so hyper exposed and stuff moves so quickly that it's like everyone kind of feels like they have to >> oh for sure >> check everything and uh yeah bring back the old times where crypto was crazy and everything else was just like up only but like only a little bit like I like that bit better.

[01:07:44]>> Me too, dude. Me too. But now we're fighting against like 1010 clearly [ __ ] broke something um on the crypto side and it's no longer the frontier for sexy speculation and the competition is super steep now. Like there's a whole mega bubble happening and it's not in crypto and there are only so many dollars that can can flow towards these things. Um so that's on that extremely optimistic note. Hopefully the next time we do this show, uh, the candles look a bit greener and the prices look slightly better, but that's probably all we're I mean, look, I would love to continue, but you know, the club, they they hate I've had like eight missed calls during the course of this show. So, before you click off, make sure to like the video, subscribe to the channel so we can Wait, are we beating the BTC price? I think we're roughly in par, right?

[01:08:35]>> Oh, wow.

[01:08:36]>> We might be. We're we're roughly there, but it would be nice to get more people subscribed to the channel. Um, so please click that button if you haven't already. As always, thank you to Kraken Pro for supporting the show. Their links are available in the description below.

[01:08:52]Please sign up. They probably have some sort of license or product that's available in your country. Spent a lot of time and effort on that. So, check them out if you haven't already at the very least, as mentioned, so we don't get fired. I don't know if we have some sort of scary sounding performance review coming up which is realistically going to be a telegram message saying hey guys can we try insert completely new paradigm here because the results are so bad. So, if you want to save us from that face saving attempt and social awkwardness, sign up to Kraken Pro or if you have a Kraken Pro account/raken account, let us know in the comment section, prop margin, futures, stocks, x stocks, tons of other products I probably forgotten about. Check them out. And if you want a deeper dive on any of them, be that a showcase or an explainer, or maybe you tell us, pick a product that you don't like and say why it's [ __ ] we can do that, too. I'm sure they won't mind. Right, Don? Wink wink nudge nudge. I'm sure we'll hear about that in the near future. I'm going to shut up. Longest outro ever. I'm off to the club. Don is some weirdo in New Zealand with like kids in a farm or some [ __ ] Don't care. My life is so much more exciting. Hope you all have a wonderful weekend and we'll see you next week. Bye-bye.