LARRY JOHNSON. : AIPAC Pressure, Iran Tensions, And The Real Cost At Home

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[00:00:12]Heat. Heat.

[00:00:30]It's Thursday, May 21st. Welcome to the Gym Web Podcast. I am still here. Um, so we got we're here with Larry Johnson today. And Larry, I wanted to preface this by saying that I was going to wear a Hawaiian shirt. Um, >> yeah, man. Come on.

[00:00:45]>> Yeah. But I sweated through it out in the driveway. um just had a kid born the other day and I >> Yeah, Congratulations on that.

[00:00:53]>> Appreciate that. Appreciate that. And I think everybody knows you, but uh you're the co-founder of VIPS, uh Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, uh former CIA analyst, and you run the Sonar 21 blog, which is a fantastic place. I've been reading it for years.

[00:01:07]Um >> Oh, thanks.

[00:01:09]>> I truly appreciate you coming on.

[00:01:11]>> Well, I appreciate that. In fact, I got I got a phone call today from a former oil trader and you know, he he tracked me down and he he called up and say, "Hey, I just want you to know he he said, "Thanks." He says, "You're hitting some things that other people are missing."

[00:01:26]>> And that's why I I was, you know, I took it as a great compliment from somebody who was on the London desk and in New York City trading oil and he says, "Hey, the whole system right now, it's rigged.

[00:01:36]It's crooked. It's designed to cover up what's going on."

[00:01:40]>> Yeah. I mean, you hit the nail on the head right there. Um, and a couple of my buddies, just uh to let you know, heard you were coming on. Uh, former Marines, they absolutely love you and they want to say thank you for everything you're doing because you provide a lot of context on uh events that are going on.

[00:01:54]>> Well, in part that's because I was I I I was sort of a I'm sort of a Marine. So, when I moved to State Department from CIA, um, my boss was Dominic Richard Alawishas Ganon. Colonel Dominic Richard Alawishas Ganon. So he'd commanded the fifth Marines.

[00:02:13]>> Okay.

[00:02:14]>> Um he was he he did his terminal assignment at state. He was in the Paul Mill bureau, but then he moved to he helped set up diplomatic security. Uh he was on the commission with Al Gray in the investigation of the bar marine barracks bombing. So I literally sat 8 feet across the table from him.

[00:02:34]>> I was, you know, I was his troop. I was I was exo. So he trained me and uh I really developed a I learned to develop a fondness and appreciation for Marines.

[00:02:46]>> Well, I appreciate that. Um and that man has quite the name and I'm surprised you can pronounce it. I can't. I uh as a as a crayon eater, I >> But uh yeah, welcome welcome to the show and welcome. I'm I'm glad you're uh you're adopted part of the uh a part of the tribe here of of Marines, but And you know, Steve Davis, who helped set up Mars, I don't know if you know who he is. He left as a general. Uh Mark Thompson, Tom Hastings, they were both they left the core as Marines, moved to State Department. Mark became the uh the deputy assistant secretary in the Bureau of Counterterrorism. He was one of the whistleblowers on Benghazi. Paid a price for that. But, you know, >> so yeah, I I've the I do have a special special place for Marines.

[00:03:36]>> All right. Thank you very much. Um, so real quick here, I I just want to touch on something because it's the biggest news this week outside of what's possibly percolating in Iran, but uh Thomas Massie, >> yeah, >> getting primar out of his seat, dumping $34 million into a primary uh to to get rid of this guy as I mean, on the one hand, it's framed as Trump's vendetta against Massie, but there's a there's a big undercurrent of foreign influence on this. You can't really frame it any either way. Um I'm pretty dejected about it. Do you see any silver lining to this?

[00:04:12]>> Yeah, a pirick victory. Uh you know, they have set themselves on fire. Um the the entire Zionist organization and yeah, they got this immediate triumph, but uh it it's not going to translate into more victories. You know, unfortunately, we've got such a disconnect between our Congress and the American public that the Congress is basically bought and paid for. Uh and uh this this reinforces the notion you don't want to quote cross uh Apac. On the other hand, the the people, you know, your generation, people your age and younger, you know, you're you weren't u propagandized by the movie Exodus with Paul Newman, you know, back in the day. that that that that movie for my generation, you know, created this David and Goliath image. Here was poor little Israel and all the big bad Arabs and poor little Israel trying to survive and you know they they used uh this uh Lily white girl Karen a Danish actress but uh she was she was sort of Salmano's love interest uh and she gets killed and raped by the by the Arabs at the end and you know so that whole mentality you guys aren't infected and and and and now this the number of people that bought into Trump on America first, they were they were serious about that. Hey, let's take care of us. I mean, and and okay, I'm going to go off on a bit of a tangent here. It's related to the Marine Corps, >> but on you know, I'm a firearms instructor.

[00:05:52]>> And um two years ago, a student came to me. He wanted to be a rifle instructor, so he had to take the NRA basic rifle course. Well, you know, as I get in, I asked him up front, you know, your experience and he downplayed it. But by the end of the class, I discovered Jaime Lee Slatter is his name was a Navy corman who served with the Marines and the Marines trained him as a sniper. So, he was a Marine Corps sniper. And I said, "You're sitting here taking the I said, "I should be taking the class from you." And he said, "No, no." He said, "I learned some things today."

[00:06:28]Um, so Jamie is just a special special guy and with his background as a core I mean he did a lot he saw a lot of combat in in both Afghanistan and Iraq as I think he had at least four tours. Um, and uh, you know, he just the probably the best, you know, best human being you could want to be around. Uh he killed himself Sunday.

[00:06:53]And when I when I got into this and I I was I was working a veterans event. They have it was called cigars and guns. Uh the veteran I was the chief range safety officer for it. And one of the guys working with me, Tank. Uh Tank also was a Navy corman who worked with the Marine. So he and Jamie were friends.

[00:07:14]And you know, Tank and I said goodbye at the end of this video. We had a great event. and said, "Hey man, I'll see you later." I'm in the car. You know, 10 minutes later, tank's calling and he's crying and he says, "Uh, Jamie just killed himself." Um, 147,000 soldiers, Marines, sailors have killed themselves in the wake of this goddamn wars over the last 25 years. Mhm.

[00:07:43]>> That's We've lost more to suicide than died in Vietnam and Afghanistan times uh one and Iraq times two and Libya and Somalia and down the road. And I am just I am in enraged, you know, just enraged over it. And that's um you know that's where this nonsense about Israel intervening in our elections when our members of Congress stand by and do absolutely damn nothing while we've got these veterans dying and I haven't even dealt with the homeless.

[00:08:20]>> Right.

[00:08:20]>> So sorry for the tangent, but >> no, you're you're on the money there. Um that is a very emotional subject for myself and a and a lot of other guys.

[00:08:30]Um, and I mean >> you stay in this game long enough um, particularly on the combat arms side and you'll come across it. Uh, we had our first suicide from Rammani right after we got back. Um, and it's continued to a degree, but at the same time, you know, you start looking at the bigger picture, and this ties into Iran a bit, where the moral injury of a lot of guys having fought these conflicts is very, very, very high and very deep. And it's because, you know, you on the one hand, and this is going to sound very cynical because it is, the politicians in DC, uh, you know, however you want to carve that up, the political class, they love these wars because it gives a boost in ratings. It makes their friends rich. It pumps money through the military-industrial complex. I mean, you can go on and on and on. But what ends up happening like places like Afghanistan, Iraq is that there you have nothing to show for it at the end of it as um you know you do your duty, you have your honor, >> but the ultimate experience, you know, there isn't a whole lot to show for it. Like I mean watched I remember watching ISIS roll through Rammani. You have the Taliban being replaced with the Taliban and people ask themselves what was that all for? You expend your youth on it. And there needs to be a whole lot more accountability.

[00:09:49]Um across the board.

[00:09:50]>> Well, and then you find out we were funding them, >> right? Yeah.

[00:09:55]>> Wait, I thought these these guys are our enemies and we're funding them.

[00:09:59]>> Yeah, >> we're arming them or training what? You know, come on.

[00:10:05]>> Yeah. No, I'm I'm right there with you.

[00:10:06]And then we have we have the new round here in Iran where the the the the national interest is zero. um this is done for Israel, you know, at the you have people at the highest level government admitting it from the jump.

[00:10:22]Um this has nothing to do with America's strategic interest. Um and on that note, I'd like to to to pivot over there for a second because you wrote a great piece on Sonar 21. I read your piece about the Corman um and it was phenomenal and thank you for that. But uh this one came out yesterday. Um you know I want to pull a quote from it where it says the net effect in this environment favors pressure probes and cursive bargaining over high tempo Saudi enabled meaning us using their base's air campaign. Um you've said that strategically at the strategic level before we get on the tactical that it looks like we're going to kick this off again. Um but you had that little nugget in there talking about how there's a uh you know there's a lot of pressure to resolve this politically. Could you break this down and and give some context to see which side may win out or what's more probable?

[00:11:10]>> Yeah. Well, I use I've used the analogy of the the Gambino crime family and one of the of their soldiers goes into Brooklyn to a pizza parlor and promises, hey, you know, uh you need to pay your insurance. You pay your insurance. Your place doesn't catch on fire. So, the protection money is up front.

[00:11:29]>> Mhm. And but what happens when the pizza parlor gets you paid the protection money and your pizza parlor gets burned down? Well, that's what's happened in the Persian Gulf. The United States went into all the Gulf Arabs and basically said, "Hey, we need to uh protect you against those Iranians.

[00:11:45]>> Ignore you know, ignoring the fact that uh uh you know, we we were also selling weapons to Iran during Iran Contra.

[00:11:52]That's a whole another issue. But uh so the Gulf Arabs there promised protection which allowed all these US military bases at least 13 of them to be established there with Alouded as the number one base.

[00:12:06]>> I don't know if you have you have you been through Alouded >> Believe so I believe so. Yeah.

[00:12:10]>> Yeah. I was there in 2006 in went to into Iraq and to Balad for >> the same time I was there.

[00:12:17]>> Yeah. I was my job was to go train a Navy Seal on how to be on television.

[00:12:21]But that's a whole honest to God. True story. JSOW Jay-Ass kitted me out and sent me over.

[00:12:30]>> That'd be pretty awesome. Good job.

[00:12:31]>> Hilarious. Um but uh you know they were promised you got all these air bases and then hey the the kicker is also buy buy our US Treasury bills and buy all of our crappy military equipment.

[00:12:44]>> Mhm.

[00:12:45]>> And I guarantee you you're not going to be hit. You'll be safe. Well, we kick off the war. we don't tell them we're going to attack uh Iran. And then Iran retaliates and just pounds the hell out of all these bases and attacks infrastructure, destroys critical infrastructure in Qatar. Qatar in particular really took a beating. Uh and all of a sudden these countries are going, "Whoa, whoa, what? Wait a second.

[00:13:09]Where is our protection?" And it was like, "Oh, well, our bad." So now what's happened is they're turning to Russia and China >> because Russia and China are saying, "We got a better deal for you. We promise we're not going to get you into a war.

[00:13:21]We're going to keep you out of a war.

[00:13:23]So, what we saw now three weeks ago when Donald Trump announced his project freedom, we're going to open the straight of >> Hormuse.

[00:13:31]>> And uh within 36 hours, he said, "Never mind. We're going to cause a call a pause." Well, the reason they called the pause is the Saudis said, "No, you're not using our airspace at all.

[00:13:43]>> So, shut it and Trump tried to call and you know sweet talk of Muhammad bin Salman that failed. So now we are in uh you know here's Trump again gearing up.

[00:13:54]We're going to attack. We're going to we're going to let them have it. But the the Saudis are hosting the Haj as they do every year. The Haj is a one of the obligations of every Muslim. One time in your life to go to Mecca, Medina to follow the rituals to reenact the prophet Ibraham and the prophet Muhammad uh to go through these variety of rituals and it's about a it's a seven eight day affair. Mhm.

[00:14:21]>> Well, that that's that starts on Sunday the 24th and um I am told that right now the US is conducting no air operations over Saudi Arabia at all. It's all being done all the air refueling is being done in Iraq.

[00:14:36]>> Gez.

[00:14:37]>> Yeah. So that means without without Saudi Arabia, uh, our ability to continue attacking Iran is going to be constrained and and people need to understand, you know, the the the logistics involved with this. Uh, we've got the tankers, the KC135s were at Prince Air Base.

[00:14:56]>> And how do I know that? Not through classified information. My neighbor up the street, he's a he's a pilot. We got talking and he said, "Yeah, my son's coming home." I said, "From where?" He goes, "Saudi Arabia." I goes, "Well, what's he doing there?" He goes, "He's a KC135 pilot." I went, "Oh, man." I said, "They my understanding is that's a pretty pretty shitty situation." He goes, "Yeah, it is." He says, he's told me he can only talk to me about it when he gets home. So, so that's how I know that the KC135s are there. Mhm.

[00:15:26]>> But when you do the the the the F-35s, the F-16s, those the ones that aren't carrierbased, they're over in Moafac Alsalti air base in Jordan near Aman. Uh they're in Israel. And so when you when you lay out the distance, those planes have a combat radius of 550 miles.

[00:15:45]>> Well, to get to Riad, it's like 820 miles. Or if they fly to Kuwait City, it's 720 miles. So that means you're going to have to even reach that point, you're going to have to have at least one air refueling. They they don't have the ability then to fly deep into Iran at all. They've got to do launch standoff weapons like Tomahawk JASM >> and then they got to turn around and get another air refuel. So the this whole air refueling operation is critical to it.

[00:16:13]>> And I guess we saw in the report to Congress yesterday or day before uh we've lost seven KC35s so far in this whole affair.

[00:16:21]>> 42 aircraft overall. Yeah. To a cost I calculated $2.5 billion worth of aircraft.

[00:16:29]>> Geez.

[00:16:29]>> Yeah. It's like 25 800 800 million of it are the MQ9 Reapers. You know, those go for 35 million a pop. And the Triton.

[00:16:38]Did Did you read the price tag on that new drone that they came out with? The Triton?

[00:16:42]>> I did. And that has a donulous cost overrun, too.

[00:16:47]>> $250 million. Are you kidding me?

[00:16:50]>> Yeah. And I think the uh the airframe that it replaced had a a final price tag of like 30 million a piece.

[00:16:57]>> Yeah.

[00:16:58]>> And it it's like So what do you are you really getting that much more of a capability or is this like another boondoggle?

[00:17:03]>> Yeah. It's outrageous.

[00:17:06]>> Yeah. But uh yeah. No, it's um you hit on some really really good stuff. And one one follow on question I like to ask about Saudi Arabia is you know they're they're I guess we could call them an upstanding member of bricks. Um, and at the same time, they are touted uh more often than not by the White House as this great partner in the Middle East.

[00:17:32]Um, and it looks like they are not on board with what we're doing, which is I mean, I have no problem with that, but how does that how do you think that actually represents the power dynamic that's going on between bricks, Russia, China, and the United States visa v Saudi Arabia? Well, yeah. Saudis have been actually lukewarm towards bricks.

[00:17:51]They've been sort of uh they remind me a little bit of uh Luca Bratzi from the first Godfather movie, you know, where he was asked to go to the to the other family and pretend like he wanted to defect.

[00:18:04]>> That that's sort of, you know, Saudi Arabia is a little bit like that Luca Bratzi character. H do I want to join you or not? Yeah, we'll figure it out.

[00:18:13]Uh but they've been screwed and they were they've been basically promised.

[00:18:18]Yeah, we got this in hand. There's no way Iran we're going to take out the top Iranian leadership. We're going to we're going to wipe them out. We're going to have our own guys in place. The the regime will collapse. You'll be great.

[00:18:29]>> And the Saudis went along with that.

[00:18:31]Okay, sounds good.

[00:18:34]>> Well, that didn't turn out that way.

[00:18:37]>> And and now they they've got an issue.

[00:18:40]Uh, you know, I I I'm going to repeat something. You know, people that have watched me on some other podcast may say, "Okay, you're repeating yourself."

[00:18:47]But it's an important point that Americans need to understand. We think we've weakened the leadership of Iran.

[00:18:53]But what we've done is, and put it in terms of your own military service. Uh, the top five guys apart from the head of the you got the IRGC commander. Uh, then you have Peskian. Well, he fought in the Iran Iraq war as a medic. Uh Arachi, the foreign minister and and they fought with the IRGC. Arrai fought also with the IRGC, he was a medic. Galibah, the head of the parliament, he fought eight years in combat.

[00:19:27]>> Uh IRGC >> and Mustaba Kamei, the new Ayatollah, he did two years combat. 1987, 1988. It's went in as a 17-year-old kid. Now, he's from a privileged family.

[00:19:42]>> He could have, you know, he could have sought that, you know, like the Donald Trump, the bone, Mr. Bone Spur who avoided service in Vietnam, >> but he didn't. So, now you've got this cadre of five people who are basically at the top of the Iranian government.

[00:19:55]They're all combat veterans for God's sake.

[00:19:58]>> Yeah.

[00:19:58]>> Now, you know what that means? You don't necessarily have to have served with somebody, but you know that you guys have had the same experience. And that's what that's what we need to understand is taking place in Iran right now.

[00:20:10]They're not divided. They're not carping at each other. You know, they come out of they've all experienced combat in a war that killed 200,000 Iranians thanks to our intervention and assistance.

[00:20:23]>> Yeah, and that's a that's a an awesome point. I did not know that level of detail and thanks for sharing it. But it it it frames things in a particular way.

[00:20:31]I mean, you're talking about in essence kind of our leadership here post World War II. They're combat hardened and they're going to make, >> you know, decisions based upon that that are going to be very practical. Um, and not full of bluster necessarily. Um, do they have the capabilities we have? No.

[00:20:48]But they have their own which are very, very effective. Um, and that's one thing I'd like to touch on really quick here and love to get your analysis on it because there was a New York Times article, I'm sure you've seen it, that was pulled out. Um, I guess we're pulling some stuff out of it, but it was uh talked about what could happen the next time around. Iranian commanders possibly with Russian help, this is the the big through line here, studied the flight patterns of American jet fighters and bombers, and they warned that >> the downing of the F-15E and the ground fire that struck the F-35 revealed that American tactics are too predictable.

[00:21:22]Um, and you it's uh basically to me what that's saying is that they took a bunch of notes and know what we're about. And if I if I kind of think back to how we go into countries, right? Uh but I'll use the Iraq war as an example.

[00:21:38]>> We establish air dominance instantaneously, right? So there is no period of adjustment. You're just wiped out. Uh we did not do that. And that's kind of a problem. Uh, I personally would think it's a bad idea to restart this because you exactly you've given away your template and I don't really know if we've ever had to be that flexible before. We have great pilots and everything, but what is uh what are your concerns and what do you think the probability of actually restarting this is?

[00:22:03]>> Yeah. Well, actually, I think if it the Saudis hold the key, >> if the Saudis are firm and say, "No, it's not you're not going to do this," I think Trump may have trouble getting it restarted >> because because the logistics requirements are significant. We we cannot there there is no ground forced operation. Um, and I've listened to uh this professor Pape. He's a great guy.

[00:22:30]He does some really good analysis, but but he doesn't understand logistics. You know, I I don't pretend to be some great milit you know, the extent of my quote military experience was they put us through a 12-week paramilitary course at Camp Perry during my CIA introduction.

[00:22:45]>> So, it was like a cross between basic training AIT. Uh but we did we did land nav, we did maritime operations, we did night drops uh from from aircraft, we learned how to mark landing zones, we did explosives, you know, the it was a hoot. I mean, it was fun.

[00:23:02]>> Yeah.

[00:23:02]>> But but you also learned in the final FTX when you're carrying, you know, I'm carrying a 90 lb rock. I've got the prick 77 radio. I got, you know, how I would earn that honor, I don't know. But you realize that when you're running around woods and trying to move up and down hills that you don't actually move that fast and that there's some real obstacles. So, and then you get to the issue of, okay, I hear these people, I mean, even former generals, Keith Kellogg, what a knucklehead he is. He talked about, you know, putting the 82nd in on Kar Island or Cam Kempsh Island.

[00:23:36]How do you resupply him, guys? I mean, I look, I I've been I was in I was in Iraq or in in Qatar exactly 20 years ago today. Um, and my god, it was like 120 degrees.

[00:23:54]>> So, so yeah, if you drop if you drop out pallets of water, guess what? That water gets heated up in the sunshine. So, you're drinking, you know, you're drinking. You might as well take a bath in it. Uh so you get through the whole logistics effort and then how do you keep them resupplied with ammunition and then how do you get them there >> right?

[00:24:12]>> You know the because when when you realize the limitations on uh you know I guess a fully uh 130 can can take 90 combat combat loaded soldiers or marines >> uh you know the uh so there's just you know all these logistic details that you ought to pay attention to. So there's not going to be a ground operation. We know that.

[00:24:35]>> And there's not going to be a maritime operation because the the surface the anti-hship missiles that Iran now has in its possession. And I'm I was told by a source uh in the in the Gulf that the Chinese sent the CM302s which are a supersonic missile. So you know we got to keep our everything standoff. So, we're left with this air operations and air operations in the history going back to World War II. They do some they do some good things, but they do not defeat the enemy on the ground. And we've seen that in Israel in spades with Gaza. Mhm.

[00:25:12]>> You know, here here you've got for three years, yeah, three years now almost that Israel's been pounding the hell out of the Palestinians in Gaza. And still despite having them confined to a to a 25m long 5m wide box surrounded where every the Israelis have every military op you know advantage in terms of artillery armored vehicles tanks overhead and fixed wing rotary wing aircraft all of it. They have been unable to defeat Hamas because the air power drops the bombs, makes it turns into a moonscape, but they go underground, >> right?

[00:25:52]>> And so dig them out and you know from your time as a Marine, that's where you send the Marines in and the Marines take casualties >> big time. So and and that's what the Israelis are taking casualties. So and they're afraid to so they stay out. So it's just like we got to recognize air power has its limitations. Now, the other dimension to this though, I think the Chinese secretly are sitting there saying, "Yeah, United States, I think you ought you you tell them P, you ought to go ahead and attack Iran again." Why?

[00:26:20]Well, because we're going to expend all the tomahawk and jazam missiles that they can no longer use against China.

[00:26:27]>> Mhm.

[00:26:27]>> So, uh the United States, it's just it doesn't make sense tactically. It doesn't make sense strategically. It's just it's it's emotional. And as my, you know, as I told you, my old boss at State Department, a retired Marine colonel, he'd always look at me and go, "Johnson, >> if it feels really good, it's probably wrong."

[00:26:49]>> That's pretty good. And there's one little like you talk about the air campaign, too. Uh there's one tidbit in there that really worries me. And it worries me because of I would just say, let's frame it as the lack of leadership, humility, and knowledge at the top of the chain of command. You go up to Pedro, Secretary of War, up higher, these guys really don't know what they're doing. Um quite frankly, they're they're out of their depth and they're constantly trying to please the boss as opposed to make the right decision. And I was talking to uh an individual who I know very well uh who's familiar with air operations. We'll leave it there. I was asking him about the F-35 hit. It's like like you look at that. It looks like a heat seeker. Like what is going on? And the response was very simple. It's like hey this has been a problem for seven years we've known about. We haven't developed a any countermeasures because it's a hybrid between an optical tracking system and a heat seeker where somebody walks it in basically and then the last x amount of duration it cues into the heat trail or heat signature and then pops.

[00:27:55]>> Right.

[00:27:55]>> Um >> my concern is that that is not acknowledged at the top and you have this like you're saying like an emotional push to go do something. We always want to do something in this country as opposed to the correct thing and it'll Okay. So, I'll turn around. Let me ask you the question.

[00:28:15]>> During your time in the Marine Corps, >> did did you did you find it uh improving your chances to get promoted if you told the commander something he didn't want to hear?

[00:28:27]>> Well, uh I was enlisted so um sort of not really, but but if you told him what you want to hear, if if from observation, right? Absolutely. Absolut 100%. So people who were yesmen tended to move up particularly, you know, in the officer ranks.

[00:28:43]>> Yeah. See, I learned that the hard way at the CIA. I, you know, I was, look, I was old enough. I should have known better. I was 30 years old >> and we I'd just been on the job as the Honduran analyst for about two months and they they called a meeting of all the new analysts in the Africa Latin America division. We met with the division chief, John Allen. And John comes in and says, "Look," he says, "I understand we got some morale issues."

[00:29:08]and he said, "I'd like to get to the bottom of that. I'd like to know what the problems are." I was dumb enough to think he was sincere. So I John, I'll tell you what the problem is.

[00:29:19]And the problem was simple. The analyst felt unappreciated. And I used the example I said, you know, last year the head of the Middle East division and in the analytical side, he got a $25,000 cash award. He threw a party for his analysts. The analysts felt appreciated.

[00:29:36]I said, "But your predecessor, Rick Stakum," and privately the analysts called him rape him stum, you know. So I said, "He got a $25,000 cash award and he bought himself a Lexus."

[00:29:51]>> That's the problem, John. John, he turned he turned the color of my coffee cup.

[00:29:57]Uh threw everybody else out. Everybody leave. You stay. And man, I got my ass chewed for about 20 minutes. How dare you? So, at that point, I learned I said, "You know what? When they ask for information, they're not really serious."

[00:30:13]>> So, you got that same problem in the Army, in the Marine Corps, and in the Navy and and the Pentagon. The the guys at the top, they got the narrative.

[00:30:21]They got the story they're telling.

[00:30:24]Don't don't crap on their story.

[00:30:29]That's uh that really bothers me when you're, you know, particularly right now when you're uh talking about lives on the line. That's just not the way to do it. Uh >> but so to pivot a little bit, I want to I want to go back to to Lebanon and Israel for one second. The the first thing I'd like to get your opinion on is so sounds like there's a pretty good chance, I don't want to throw probabilities out there, that uh we kind of grind this thing down, wind this thing down against Iran. There's a decent probability it could wind back up. What do you think that does to the relationship between Netanyahu and the White House? Because I saw it reported they had a pretty last night they had a pretty sporty phone call when it came second round. The Israelis wanted to green light. Um looks like there was some push back. Do you think there's some hope for recalibrating that relationship come out of this? Boy, I I hope so, but I I I don't as long as Trump's there and Trump's on the hook to people like Miriam Adlesen and others, uh I I think they'll continue to uh advocate more for the Israeli position as opposed to the American position.

[00:31:30]Now, but let's not forget that, you know, like Hezbollah has a vote in this. And no matter what Israel claims to want, you know, they they can launch air operations all day long up until the United States pulls if we pull the plug, Israel is going to have to pull back.

[00:31:48]They won't be able to sustain this. And and the problem they've got right now in southern Lebanon, yeah, they can bomb at will, but um and and I don't know where you were. And so yeah, you were a young Marine back in 2006. So in 2006 when Israel invaded Lebanon then, uh Hezbollah didn't have drones, >> right?

[00:32:11]>> They had RPGs, they had rifles, they had some mortars, and and they they they fought the Israelis to a standstill.

[00:32:19]Israel had to withdraw.

[00:32:21]>> So they they lost Israel lost. This goround the uh Hezbollah despite supposedly being incapacitated has come roaring back and they they're using drones uh reportedly received from Russia. Russia is supporting them >> is what I've heard. Uh that and it's and it's retaliation to Israel for uh it helping uh carry out drone attacks in Russia using Ukraine. U so uh but but the the Israelis now they're suffering more casualties now than they ever did in 2006. So I think that's unsustainable. So at some point there there are political pressures growing in Israel to say uh to to look for more of a negotiated settlement instead of trying to kill all the Palestinians and exterminate them. I I that's not a sustainable policy. And uh so what uh what what we're witnessing here I think is the the the blowback that comes from the Thomas Massie uh defeat by the Apac that is that's going to increasingly alienate Trump's base and and so this once once this market manipulation stops because there there has been deliberate market manipulation to keep the stocks up and oil prices down.

[00:33:42]>> Once that goes away, once Trump is forced to see the actual cost, >> then I I think he will pull the plug on Israel at that point.

[00:33:51]>> That would be interesting. I I hope that day comes sooner rather than later. This has been a little ridiculous. And >> to talk about Massie again for one second here, this that's one thing I never really understood about this where he was the quintessential America first guy. he was, you know, if if if Trump was going to pick out a couple of people when he was running who say, "Hey, I want you to go champion this for me. I'm gonna back you. You know, get out there and and stump for me." It would have been Thomas Massie, Rand Paul, Marjorie Taylor Green, probably Lauren Boowbert.

[00:34:22]I mean, all these folks which who are under the absolute gun right now. and the sheer level of arrogance that these people in the White House now display where they don't seem to recognize the change of their own tune >> um >> is going to cost them.

[00:34:36]>> Oh yeah, big big time. You know, that is uh they've alienated a significant portion of the and again it's the the old farts like me that are still watching Fox News and you know drinking that Kool-Aid, okay, they're they're a hopeless group. You know, there's no you can't get them back. But the people that are 50 and under uh they are in a whole different you know league right now and they they are not captives of you know they're not even watching Fox News you know they're on other social media and these these different podcasts that are out there uh with the ones that are popular you know whether you're looking at Tucker Carlson Candace Owens Joe Rogan u the vaugh you know you keep you running down the list. There's there's so much information out there that the administration can't control, >> right?

[00:35:30]>> And that's the loss of that control is what, you know, they've been trying to get it back. That's why they you had Larry Ellison buy Tik Tok, but but that's not working out. It's too big.

[00:35:41]It's too fast.

[00:35:43]>> Yeah. And it's actually a good point right here uh for me to interject and say, "Hey, if you like this show, like and subscribe." Um, we're trying to be big and influential possibly, but uh, also had a new kid. Gotta pay my bills.

[00:35:56]So, tell your friends, get them to like and subscribe. It really helps out.

[00:35:59]Thank you everybody. Um, but those are those are great points. Uh, Larry, those are absolutely fantastic points. And it's I think that the bag is wide open on information right now. And my biggest worry long term is if they try to stuff the cat back in it. I don't think they can. But, you know, the the way they're going after Tucker Carlson right now is unreal. Um.

[00:36:20]>> Oh, yeah. Well, hey, just build his audience. You know, look, uh, I've known I sent I sent Tucker a couple of months back. Uh, there I used to be on I I was a regular guest on Crossfire back in the day.

[00:36:33]>> I remember that show.

[00:36:34]>> And so, well, when he was when he was hosting, you know, he was only like 30 or something at the time. And then there there there was a I I appeared at George Washington University like in four or five days in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. I was there with Eric Holder and Jane what's her face this congresswoman and it was the three of us on stage and then Tucker was you know he was again the hosting. So you know I I I've watched Tucker over the years >> uh and I gave him a heart. He he went on the Shawn Ryan show and they went out back and shooting and and none of them were wearing eye protection. And so I wrote him, I said, "You know what the hell's wrong with you? You're going for the Stevie Wonder award."

[00:37:18]>> Yeah.

[00:37:19]>> You should look, you're proficient with firearms, but no better. Wear wear your eye protection because you don't have control when the when you get a case that explodes back in your face, >> you know, and blinds you. That's uh there's no coming back from that. So anyway, uh but Tucker has uh you know, he's got the he's got the the freedom that he doesn't need the corporate world and you know, it's like if you want to watch him, you watch him.

[00:37:47]If you don't want to watch him, don't watch him. Well, he's building up a good audience and he's not afraid to tackle a whole variety of issues. And it's, you know, the the the Zionist crowd, they're so stupid because they think if they attack him, it's going to weaken him.

[00:38:02]No, it just makes him more popular.

[00:38:04]>> Yeah, that's a that's a playbook from I don't know 20 years ago where you could you only had so many outlets and if you made somebody radioactive enough you could get them off a network TV and they would just disappear. You're just gone like you're never to be heard from again.

[00:38:19]>> Well, you want Let me give you I give you a stat on how the media landscape has changed. And I did this back in 2016 just out of curiosity. So in in 1968, August of 1968, American public, we were about 180 million people. Uh the top three television shows or news shows, Walter Kronite, uh then you had uh he was CBS.

[00:38:44]Then you had uh Hunt Huntley and Brink Brinkley and Hunt Huntley or you know they they were at I think NBC and I forget who was at ABC but those three accounted for 53 million viewers a night. Okay. And uh of that Walter Kronhite had 28 million.

[00:39:06]>> Mhm.

[00:39:07]>> Jump ahead to August of 2016. Then I looked up the ratings for CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox.

[00:39:18]Oh, Peter Jennings. That was it. Thanks.

[00:39:21]And uh that whole collection of all of those networks in in 19 in in 2016, 27 million. They didn't even have the audience that Walter Kronite by himself had uh you know, 40 years earlier.

[00:39:36]>> Right. So the the point of that is this whole media landscape has changed and it's like look at what you can do now.

[00:39:45]You can have this show. You don't have some tremendous overhead.

[00:39:48]>> You don't have to hire makeup artists.

[00:39:50]You don't have to have sound engineers.

[00:39:52]You don't have to have cameramen. You know, it's just like I was telling you the story when Jay- Sock uh came to me in May of uh 2006 and said, "Hey, we've uh we've got this new this Navy commander uh SEAL. Uh we were going to want to start using him as the public spokesman. He was going to replace some guy named an army guy named Caldwell."

[00:40:14]So, but he's never been on television before. You've been a talking head.

[00:40:18]Would you would you mind going over and training him? And I said, "Okay." I I and it was, you know, my our wedding, my wife and I, our wedding anniversary was uh May 21st. So I was going to be going over the anniversary. I said, "Do you mind?" She says, "Just make the make sure the insurance updated." Oh, that's that's that's true love.

[00:40:40]>> So yeah, I will say we've been we're actually we're married 50 years as of today. So >> Oh, congratulations.

[00:40:47]>> Yeah. So that's survived. But anyway, uh, so I got all kitted out, you know, got the shots, the body armor, the whole nine yards. And all I was gonna, all I told him was, >> look in the camera, keep your finger out of your nose, and don't say [ __ ] Okay, that was it. That was my media guidance, you know.

[00:41:09]>> Yeah, >> that's pretty good advice.

[00:41:12]>> And it's particularly if he's going on on network TV. But but you're right. It like want to pivot back to something geopolitical in a second, but yeah. I mean, you're talking about the overhead to run a show like this. Like I'm in a >> you know, I'm in my my home office right off of my kids playroom right over there. And my main concern uh my main overhead is child care.

[00:41:32]>> Yeah.

[00:41:32]>> Making sure I don't have a four-year-old or a 2-year-old coming in here and being like, "Oh, that TV just like popping up." Which they love to do.

[00:41:39]>> But uh >> yeah, you've got what I call the bunny slipper commute.

[00:41:44]Most time I'm wearing gym shorts. Okay, there you go. That's a secret. I mean, that's because I'm in Florida, so it's I don't need anything heavier than that.

[00:41:51]>> Where whereabouts are you in Florida?

[00:41:53]>> Uh Panhandle.

[00:41:54]>> Oh, okay. Yeah, I'm I'm down I'm down in Sarasota Bradon area.

[00:41:58]>> That's That's glorious. That's a glorious area.

[00:42:01]>> So So you're up in the Hurlebert area.

[00:42:02]>> That's right. It's uh >> Dest.

[00:42:05]>> Yep. I'm uh I'm halfway I'm actually like right outside the gate of Herbert, basically. Yeah.

[00:42:09]>> Um halfway between Dest and Pensacola.

[00:42:11]And it is >> God's country back here. I love it.

[00:42:14]>> Yeah, I I spent so I spent 23 years working with J sock and >> SOCOM.

[00:42:18]>> So I became more than intimately aware of all the various locations and activities.

[00:42:24]>> If you if you ever come down here, I will make sure that you catch all the fish you can stand.

[00:42:29]>> I got everything everything I got I got everything mapped out in terms of where all the the honey holes are both offshore and inshore. So >> there you go.

[00:42:36]>> My my pastime these days when I'm not doing this and hang with my kids is fishing. Um try to shoot some >> Yeah. But uh so one one last thing like on topic here. I've loved talking to you. This has been fantastic. Not that any of that was really off topic, but you had Putin show up in Beijing.

[00:42:52]>> Yeah.

[00:42:53]>> And we got a quick cut here. I think it was from before he left. Um but I think it's a good prep for what I'm about to ask you.

[00:43:03]>> The Chinese strategic partnership plays an important stabilizing role on the world stage.

[00:43:08]At the same time, we are not forming friendships against anyone, but are working for the cause of peace and universal prosperity.

[00:43:16]It is precisely in this spirit that Moscow and Beijing act in a coordinated manner to defend international law and the provisions of the UN charter in their entirety as a whole and in their interconnectedness. They support active cooperation through the UN, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, bricks and other multilateral structures, making a significant contribution to addressing pressing global and regional issues.

[00:43:42]I am confident that together we will continue to do everything possible to deepen the Russia China partnership and good neighborly relations for the dynamic development of our two countries and the well-being of our peoples in the interest of maintaining global security and stability.

[00:43:59]See you soon in Beijing.

[00:44:03]>> So, one part that didn't play on that was, "Thank you for your attention to this matter." Yeah.

[00:44:08]>> Well, Trump tweeted, >> "Uh, the West is grossly underestimating uh what the Russians and Chinese are up to. And it's nothing nefarious. They are they are dead serious about creating an alternative political economic financial system that's not held hostage to the US dollar. And uh there are some who think you know I still see some western analysts who think that this this is only sort of a temporary arrangement with China that this can't last because China's too big and Russia's too small.

[00:44:49]Uh, I made my first trip uh to Russia in Mos in uh to Moscow in December of 2023, staying at the Intercontinental Hotel.

[00:44:58]When I woke up the next morning, went down for breakfast, I thought I'd landed in Beijing. I was the only, you know, western guy in there. Everybody else was Chinese.

[00:45:07]>> So, so the Chinese tourists were already all over Russia back in 2023.

[00:45:12]But but what Putin was enunciating there that this is this is not political words smmithing um I was uh was part of a group um that is called the international unity club >> and so it is designed to promote conversations dialogues between the west and and the east um and in the course of that I did I did about 40 interviews with a number of top Russian politic politicians, military leaders like General Abdi Aladino. Um, you know, the he's a he's the hero, he's a hero of Russia, >> devout Muslim. Uh, the head of the Communist Party, Gennady Jugenov, you know, he a character, you know, he showed up, he had chocolate bars with his picture on it. Hey, I'm a chocolate bar.

[00:46:04]>> You know, that's my kind of communism.

[00:46:07]>> Was he trying to sell those?

[00:46:08]>> No, no, no. You didn't even have to make a donation. You just passed them out.

[00:46:12]>> Oh, nice.

[00:46:12]>> But but also one of the people I talked to and I don't know if you're a hockey fan, >> big time, >> but his name is Vietaslav Fetisov.

[00:46:20]Vietas Fatisov played for the first for uh the New Jersey Devils >> and and then he played for the Detroit Red Wings. And under his when he was there, they won two Stanley Cups. So this was back in the 1990s, >> right? Um, so he was he was one of the first Russian hockey players allowed to come to the United States. He played, you know, played in the uh the uh the Olympic game back in 1982 or the United States won. Uh, you know, the miracle um, but in talking to him, I mean, his English is, you know, perfect. U, but he's he's now on the sanctions list. he can't come to the United States even though his daughter and granddaughter live in the United States or US citizens. He can't visit him. But but he descri but he described the mentality that he he had acquired with that that I found this common across the Russians and it is they they have a way of approaching the world looking at it how do we collaborate and work with others >> they don't look at it like how can I screw them out of this how can I beat them how can I get one up on them rather very collaborative and that's he said when he came to America to play hockey he said there there was not this sense of we're a team, we need to work together to get he said it was all this individual stuff. That was the biggest adjustment he had to make. But that's why when he got to Detroit and they brought in three or four other Russian hockey players, they all had that same mentality.

[00:47:58]>> We're a team, man. We work together.

[00:48:00]We're strong. And that's how Russia and China are approaching this world.

[00:48:05]Whereas the United States is still approaching it like we're in charge.

[00:48:08]We're the boss. You we're going to tell you what to do. you can't tell us what to do. That's not that's not a healthy mentality. So, we're, you know, you're going to be living through a transition period that uh the what what was created at the end of World War II, the the global economic structure, the political structure, etc., that's collapsing >> and it's it's it's in the process of being replaced. And China and Russia are going to be the big players in that replacement. The good news though is they're not coming out trying to impose a particular ideology on anyone. I mean, you know, you got communist China, but but capitalist Russia, man. And Russia is deeply religious. I mean, deeply religious, which the West still doesn't appreciate. Yeah. It's ironic in a big way. I mean, you can make a very strong argument that the deeply held religious beliefs of all Western Europe led directly to the Enlightenment. Um, and Europe was at its peak in the middle of that and we've seemingly abandoned it.

[00:49:11]And you take a look at the kind of the the political and economic carnage that's happened as a result, societal carnage. It's uh it's really depressing.

[00:49:20]But also one uh one note uh talking about Russians on hockey teams. I'm a I'm a big Washington Capitals fan.

[00:49:27]>> Oh, okay.

[00:49:28]>> Have been for a long time.

[00:49:29]>> Yeah. Yeah. I remember when the Capitals brought Sergey Federov over uh and you had this line, the line one was Alexandrovkin, Sergey Fedorov, and Alexander Semon. Um and it was the >> the whole basis was to to congeal the two youngsters with the team effort, if you will, by put in the middle. And I think that was man that was like 2008, 2009.

[00:49:52]>> Yeah.

[00:49:53]>> Yeah.

[00:49:53]>> Didn't quite work out, but it was fun to watch, tell you that.

[00:49:57]>> Yeah. Well, this um you know, the Russians uh the Russians really have something to teach us Americans, I think, >> because they they've got this deeply religious Christian society. I mean, the the the Orthodox Christianity is the heart of modern Russia, >> but they they found a way that like with General Abdial Aladino, he is a devout Muslim.

[00:50:26]>> Mhm.

[00:50:27]uh and uh he is but first and foremost a Russian patriot. So they they find a way that the the the religions don't conflict.

[00:50:37]>> They they come together. The they they they find in their national unity as as Russians a way that doesn't make them as antagonists on sectarian basis.

[00:50:48]>> I mean and that's that's something I think man we would benefit from that here in the United States.

[00:50:54]>> And no I agree with you. And do do you think that's perhaps uh part of a shared experience coming out of the communist era where the commies and the bolevixs went after religion ultra hardcore?

[00:51:06]>> Yeah, I I think so. Um because both uh Muslims and Christians alike shared uh you know the oppression of the Bolsheviks. Um but what you know what's phenomenal is how it survived >> and and the traditions uh you know this is again these are deeply held beliefs but but what's interesting is you know the Russians and and and the Muslims and and we're seeing this actually a little bit in Iran. the, you know, we we're painted this picture in the West that the Muslims hate Christians and that they they're intolerant >> and yet when you go into the actual religious beliefs, the Muslims venerate Jesus as a prophet.

[00:51:53]>> The Jews do not.

[00:51:56]They Muslims venerate Mary as a holy woman.

[00:52:01]>> The Jews do not. Jew I mean Judaism does not it rejects them.

[00:52:07]>> So you know that's why I hear this notion about Judeo-Christian values. No you know we got more in common with Muslims Islamo Christian values but one of the things that within within Islam many call mainstream Islam is they prohibition against killing non-combatants.

[00:52:24]Yes. Now, now the jihadists, the Salopus, the Wahhabis, the Debandis, these extremists, and when you talk to a lot of Muslims, they'll say that they're unislamic because they are violating the tenants of Islam. But that's one of the one of the fascinating things you look at with respect to Iran is why haven't they developed a nuclear weapon? One of the reasons is a nuclear weapon will kill potentially millions of innocent people and they see that as haram as evil. And we we notice that we go back to 1980 the war with Iran Iraq from 80 to 88. You know the United States was supplying the precursor chemicals that Iraq used to make chemical weapons and those chemical weapons were used 20 times in the course of that war from say August to August of 88.

[00:53:17]And never in response did Iran say, "By God, they've done it to us. We're going to do it to them." They didn't. For the very same reason, you don't use a weapon that's going to kill innocents.

[00:53:29]So, we at least need to give Iran credit that they've been morally consistent on that front, much more so than we have been.

[00:53:36]And that's uh that's one thing that's really disturbed me over the last couple years and and for in particular with the way we've conducted operations in Iran is that >> that used to be a hallmark of US operations like straight up. Um you you always you always have the one-offs. You people will point to nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the firebombings and those are horrible horrible events. But I go back to my own experience in Iraq where you so much as harmed the goat of somebody um and you had to pay him and you apologized and you did everything you could >> from, you know, the from higher on down, pushing down orders, restricting the types of weaponry you could use in order to preserve civilian life.

[00:54:14]>> Yeah.

[00:54:14]>> And it had to be completely proportional inside the laws of armed conflict. And that's the way we've operated. And I'm I'm fear we're abandoning that. And I hope that that could be corrected sometime very very soon.

[00:54:25]>> I'm with you.

[00:54:26]>> Yeah. But, uh, Larry, that's, uh, I think we're out of time here. This has been fantastic. I truly appreciate you coming on the show.

[00:54:33]>> Well, Jim, I'm always glad to glad to meet the next generation. Like I said, I I knew your dad. Admire your dad. He's a great man. So, it looks like you did okay. Produced. Actually, your mom probably gets the credit for what you are, not your dad.

[00:54:47]>> They both They both put in a lot of work. Let's put it that way.

[00:54:50]>> All right, man. Well, listen, happy happy to be with you. Thanks.

[00:54:53]>> Thank you so much. I hope to see you again soon.

[00:54:55]>> Okay. And uh everybody, that wraps today's show. We'll be back tomorrow with Matthew Hoe uh talk talk more about what's going on in the world. And I truly appreciate your support here. Uh this is uh day one of having a house of three kids and two adults for a party of five. And night one of zone defense was rough. Operating about two hours of sleep. Hopefully I'll be be better tomorrow. But uh be sure to like and subscribe and we'll see you tomorrow with Matthew Hoe. Have a good one.

[00:55:37]Heat. Heat.