Typhoon Jangmi / Domeng possible near Okinawa and Habagat forecast for the Philippines

[00:00:00]Continuing the track, tropical storm Jungi today as it moves into the Philippine area of responsibility.

[00:00:06]Getting that name do as it tracks off here towards the north. Staying well towards the east of the Philippines. So, moving inside the P, but staying towards your east, but coming awfully close to Okinawa in the southern Japanese islands as we go ahead through Monday and into Tuesday of next week. I'm meteorologist Robert Speda. Let's break down this forecast first for the Philippines. Then of course our friends out here in Okinawa talking about some of the impacts you will be seeing with this storm system, but do remember to continue to check back in for newer updates. We're going to put these out every 12 hours here for you. So if you subscribe, you can get those latest notifications. Here's a look at our storm right now. Not terribly organized to be quite honest with you, or at least it's not your classic setup. And this is what I've been talking about for about a week and a half now. Uh that's not an exaggeration. I've been saying we're probably going to get a monsunal gy here. It's tapping into the monsunal rains. So the lowle center is actually right here. But you see how all the convection is dispersed with a large windfield around this. This is what we've been expecting. Been watching these updates. You know that's what I've been talking about here. That's broad circulation. Now what that means it's going to be tapping that moisture pulling it across the Philippines. Now the further north it goes it should start to tighten up a bit but for now it is more of a monsunal gy meaning a big old fat windfield on this and it's tapping into that rainfall that's going to increase first in Mindanao Visayas and eventually over towards Luzon also bringing heavy showers right now across parts of Palao and yeah but you can see the lowle center in here still not tightened up more of this monsunal gy kind of setup but the further north it does go it's going to move away from that monsunal connection and I do anticipate at least some tightening here as we go ahead through the weekend where it's going to be up to that typhoon status. Then still likely a typhoon as it approaches Okinawa. But this is the big thing for the Philippines. The southwest monsoon is turning on behind it. So the start of the rainy season is to be anticipated here through the first few days. And I've been saying about 3 weeks now. The first week of June, we're going to have the start of the southwest monsoon. And absolutely looks like what's going to be happening here through the 31st, 1st, 2nd into the 3rd, uh we're going to see some heavy rainfall from Muro, Pelawan back towards region one here in the Philippines. So you did hear it first about this early onset of the monsoon or at least the average start of the monsoon, but uh you heard it early on. So this is tracking off towards the north. We're of course going to see that heavy rain maybe in some flooding situations across parts of the Philippines on the west coast into the mountains places like Bagio going to see the heavy rainfall there over towards Muro's mention but then let's change our attention towards the east cuz this storm despite the fact it's going to get that domain name and it moves into the P. It is not directly impacting the Philippines. It's those indirect impacts, but it will have a more direct impact on Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands here as it tracks closer uh to you. And we watch a little bit closer here on the outlook.

[00:03:15]Basically, as we go ahead through the day on Saturday, waves already kicking up. Sunday, we're going to start to see some of those outer rain bands move in, but it's not until Monday that we kind of start to see some bad weather. If you're going to go through the core systems, I would expect core one at least based on the forecast right now until about Monday into Tuesday. But I would at least anticipate tropical storm strength conditions in Okinawa, the latest guidance from the ECMWF. It's closer to typhoon strength out there on the island. That means you'd be going through the core watches, but also a little inside joke here at Westpack weather. Been covering these storm systems for 15 years. to do. This is your first time you're out here in Okinawa and your first time watching one of these videos, welcome. Make sure you hit that subscribe button. But we've been saying for 15 years, trampolines are like a staple of American military families on the bases out here. I was one of them. We didn't have a trampoline, but I know some of y'all.

[00:04:11]And every time there is a storm, without a doubt, without if there was a poly market, bet on this.

[00:04:19]Will a trampoline be spotted on somebody's house after this storm? I would vote yes on it. Uh peak winds up the tropical storm strength, even trampoline watch in place out here. Um make sure you flip those, tie them down, and any other loose objects. And I say this jokingly, but it does go back to the root of, you know, those preparations because the buildings are built for it. The infrastructure is built for it. Power usually stays on in a lot of these spots despite the fact you get these super typhoon strength winds. That's not the case here. But despite that, like the infrastructure is built for it. People come at problems is they leave yard stuff outside, including the trampolines, which are the first to go here. Now, let's take a look at the ECMWF. We got the kph here with the winds. Our storm system tracking in from the south as we go through Saturday starting to see some pickups 20 30 km per hour. See here by Sunday it starts to really ramp up. And then as we go ahead into Monday, our storm system through the day here on Monday, especially during the evening, we get up near 100 110 km per hour winds. 120 sustained would be typhoon strength. So that's going to be in the area if this guidance continues to move through here by Monday night into Tuesday morning here for Oki Nawa and then eventually shifting towards the north and east across the Amami Islands and yes also in the Kyushu places like Kagoshima could be looking at some rough weather. And I think as far as the worst of the conditions expected with this specific storm system, my thoughts here from meteorologist Robert Speda is that you could see over 50 knots in Okinawa probably going to see some of the worst of the weather. Not 100% but confidence is definitely increased over the last 24 hours. Jangmi will intensify to a typhoon in the Philippine Sea, but staying towards your east of the Philippines and the worst of the impacts likely by Monday night into Tuesday for Okinawa Honto. That is the main island of Okinawa Province in southwestern Japan. So, I worked on NHK for uh about seven years. That is the Japan Broadcasting Corporation. So, sometimes when I pronounce stuff like kadena, I know how to properly say it. Americans say it a little bit different. All right, so let's talk about um what we have going on out here across the Philippines. Do want to quickly mention our storm system as it tracks towards the east. You are going to look at some gusty winds coming in from the north.

[00:06:48]Heavy rainfall at times Saturday and the Sunday, but look by Monday, the flow changes. Look at that heavy rain starting to come in from the west versus the east. And that will uh be the kind of onset of the southwest monsoon and thus increasing showers Sunday, Monday into Tuesday here across a good portion of Luzon and also yes into the northern areas of the Philippines. This is tapping into that moisture all the way back here towards the Indian Ocean across the Indochina Peninsula.

[00:07:19]Incredible news by the way coming out of Laos. Uh the people that have been missing, seven villagers in a cave system over a week out there, five of them have been found alive. Uh reminds me of the the uh the uh soccer team back several years ago, the boys team that got lost there in Thailand. Uh hope the other two were found alive. But uh this all part of the southwest monsoon. They caves flooded out there. It's the onset of the rainy season, so it might have caught people off guard. Don't be caught off guard if you're out here in the Philippines with that increasing rain on the back side of this. Here's your official criteria if you are out here in the Philippines. It has to be seven stations at some of these locations here over um basically uh 25 millimeters in 5 days at least 1 millimeter in three consecutive days. So I would say by the third fourth for the fifth we'll have the official onset of the rainy season just because of that persistent onshore flow for a lot of those areas.

[00:08:16]Meanwhile, for Guam and the Mariana Islands, you are east of this storm system. Still some passing showers out there, but I'm not anticipating any major impacts. Probably some big waves, but good news. You know, this kind of averted Guam uh following San Laku, I know you are still recovering out there, so good news. This is staying well, Churchill West, and it's why I'm not talking too much about Guam here. Big shout out to all our Patreon members. We have our newest Patreon member. Uh that is Michael Burns there. Thank you so much, Michael. Uh one of our newest super typhoon members here who donate $10 a month. You guys are such fantastic legends and you are really one of and our YouTube members too. Um you keep this channel running here. I say it on every update, but truly uh thank you guys so much. We're trying some new things out, even some live stuff if you follow me at Robert Sped on Facebook.

[00:09:08]Might have another one here soon with myself and uh Marian Spetta, my wife here. She's been jumping in on a lot of these updates. All right, our fly over for the Philippines. I know this is one of your favorite things here uh for our Fridays. Looking at showers still across parts of Mindanao. Actually, a good portion of the Philippines. Already seeing the southern half enhanced monsunal flow, afternoon showers. It has been hot for northern areas of Luzon.

[00:09:34]The heat index today up near 50° in the Kagayen Valley. And we had one spot over 40° without the heat index. So when this rain does start to arrive heading into next week, it should start to cool some of y'all down. But for now, we are still high 30s into the 40s. Continues to be hot outside of Baguio. Bagio, man. Y'all always staying a little bit chillier out there. High of only 25 degrees. All right, one more look at our broader picture. Our storm system is tracking off towards north staying towards the east of the Philippines but heading out there towards Okinawa. I'm meteorologist Robert Sped. If you have any questions, comments, suggestions, please let me know down in the comments box down below. I really do appreciate your all feedback and your subscriptions and and just helping along with this channel as we continue to grow. Thank you guys so much. As always though, number one thing and and I hope especially with this storm, just like every other storm, is you stay safe out there. Have a good day. Do you hate doing your taxes?

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