Severe Weather Season Has Started Off Very Strange...

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:01]It's been a very strange start to severe weather season. If you take a look just in the last 30 years of climate data where we typically see severe weather as of right now, this is April the 21st and it's predominantly over portions of Oklahoma and a good part of North Texas, much of the southern plains, a portion of the southeast, and getting into pieces of the central plains. But if you swing further north like into Iowa, northern Illinois, Minnesota, back into Wisconsin, the probabilities are typically very low for this time of year. But yet, if we look at what's transpired so far this season is quite the opposite. It's been very active. If you notice in the more common places where you typically see severe weather this time of year, like in Texas and southern Oklahoma, you don't really have seen that much. It's been central and points northbound. And really where it's been the most active is usually where it's not supposed to be the most active, like northern Illinois and back into Wisconsin. For example, Wisconsin typically year-to- date typically only typically year-to- date typically only averages three tornado warnings, but yet averages three tornado warnings, but yet they're at 82 tornado warnings for the they're at 82 tornado warnings for the year. That is crazy. I mean, typically year. That is crazy. I mean, typically they don't really even see much severe they don't really even see much severe weather until say June and July. So, weather until say June and July. So, it's not like uncommon to see it in it's not like uncommon to see it in March and April. For example, Wisconsin March and April. But yeah, the more favored areas are typically time frame is up there, you know, June, July time frame, but we have not seen that. So, it's been a very unusual start to severe weather season, but now we're actually starting to see the jetream dip a little bit further south. We're definitely starting to see more systems as that leninia continues to erode. It's pretty much completely gone now. We're in an endzone neutral setup, but we have an upper level feature coming out of Mexico and that's producing some rain showers, actually good rain showers across Texas.

[00:02:10]I mean, yesterday back in the Bronzeville's area picked up four to six ines good soaking rains and today it's just a a rain soaker across a good part of Texas. We have another little upper level low that's going to be moving inland across California. But if you look at the radar this morning and this afternoon, yeah, just a soaking light to moderate rain at times across a good part of Dallas into central Texas, back into southeast Texas, going into East Texas, and then there's the low pressure center that's coming ashore off the west coast. We've got some elevated rains around Portland, getting further south into the western coastal areas of Oregon, back in northern California, getting into the s San Francisco region, you know, further south into Bakersfield. So, there's definitely some rain showers out there, but things don't really start to get active as far as like the severe weather threat until Thursday of next this week. So, we're going into that time of year where literally we're going to probably have somewhere in the United States of severe weather. And that's typically, you know, usually what's the case. We could have 30 60 days in a row of somewhere in the United States having some sort of severe weather. So, that kicks off Thursday.

[00:03:24]We're going to be watching this upper level low that's still going to bring some snow across the portions of Canada, but we're going to have a little boundary setting up further south. and along this boundary. That's where we're going to be seeing some showers and thunderstorms starting to erupt along this boundary. So, it's going to form north and then kind of fishtail and start to build further south. And the deeper it goes further south like into Kansas and Oklahoma, I think they will be fighting a capping inversion. So, in the morning time, let's talk about this cap because it's one of those things that's with us literally on a daily basis. You typically really don't bring it up until you're talking about severe weather, but the cap is around every single day. It's either strong or weak.

[00:04:12]And if you look at Thursday morning, it's definitely on the strong side. I mean, this is actually a very strong cap at negative 238 sin. That's a very strong cap. So I, you know, so in the morning time, it's going to be very strong. Ain't nothing going to be penetrating that capping inversion. But with the upper level low and you got to have some sort of trigger to kind of erode the cap and that is likely the case at least for the northern half of the cap being likely to erode as we get into later in the evening time frame. So the storm prediction center right now has highlighted an elevated risk. Now this is what the atmosphere is capable of. So of course the cap if you have a stronger cap in place this could likely shut down this activity. But you always forecast what the atmosphere is capable of. So if it does in fact break that cap, then you could have large hail in damaging winds. And some of those could be significant hail up there into portions of Nebraska, getting into Kansas and further south into Oklahoma.

[00:05:17]Further north, not as significant back into Iowa as well as into Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin. But looking at the capping inversion where storms are likely going to start to erupt is about 6:00. And if we look at this, the latest data, it doesn't really have much of a cap, right? It erodess completely up there into Minnesota, back into Iowa, good part of Wisconsin here. So, but further south once you get in the central plains and Oklahoma, that is a very strong cap. So I would actually consider that risk as of right now a conditional threat meaning the atmosphere is capable of large cell supercell thunderstorms but if a stronger capping in place and if they're not able to penetrate that stable air mass aoft then ain't going to happen there's nothing going to happen on Thursday evening Thursday night time frame and if we look at the radar depiction the latest data kind of shows that right was feeling the effects of less cap version further north up into Minnesota, Wisconsin, especially into Iowa, getting into areas of eastern portions of Kansas. But once you fish tail even further south, look at that.

[00:06:29]It's feeling the effects of that stronger cap. And we may or may not see anything yet. We do have a hatched risk in place for areas of Oklahoma. So that is definitely a conditional threat on Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening, especially further south into central Kansas into Oklahoma.

[00:06:48]But Friday is a different element. Now that system moves just a little bit further east. So now we're talking areas from Tulsa, Fishtail, and further south does include Dallas up further north back into Springfield into Little Rock.

[00:07:02]Same dynamics. We'll be watching the dry line coming in from West Texas.

[00:07:08]A little bit different setup than last week as the dry line was setting up right along the say the Midland Odessa region. This week it's much further east. That definitely puts more of a Dallas Fort Worth into play of the severe storm. So likely it starts somewhere in the vicinity of the Abalene region and then starts shifting east.

[00:07:30]We'll be watching that cool front. It's a boundary that's going to be stalling somewhere in the vicinity of southeastern Oklahoma getting along the Red River and it's within that sector.

[00:07:40]That's where you could be seeing some severe storms trying to break out. It's got enough instability. You're looking at cap uh you know convective available potential areas of 2 to 3,000. Uh typically a thousand is just your normal thunderstorm. So there's plenty of storm fuel in the atmosphere to fuel these storms if the cap does in fact break.

[00:08:02]And there's a lot of more moisture to pack with it. So you have the dry line pushing further east into the metroplex.

[00:08:09]So that puts more of Oklahoma into play, more of North Texas into play, and then you're trying to figure out if the cap's going to break or not. But if you look at the overall setup for uh uh Saturday, there's definitely more of a conditional risk. I would say for Friday evening in say Dallas, but on Saturday is a different beast. I think by the time we hit and go into Saturday afternoon time frame, I don't think we have much cap to work with as we head into Saturday afternoon after the 5:00 time frame and the dry line different little bit little bit different dynamics is going to set up. The Storm Prediction Center, you know, again, has highlighted most of Oklahoma City, Tulsa, a good part of Dallas, into Little Rock into that severe weather risk likely after that 5:00 time frame, we'll be looking at a sharp gradient where storms are going to form right along that boundary along the dry line and then shift eastbound going into this uncapped atmosphere. So Saturday definitely appears at this stage to be the more significant day out there for severe weather and even Sunday as well. So if the radar depiction you know right now the global models are obviously in play the the the mezzoscale short range models are just not in range yet. But right now definitely appears you know no cap in place. We're going to have uh you know supercell thunderstorms start to erode uh and then break out and into the evening time frame. Say around 5 6 o'clock likely erupting going into that early evening. So it's more of a peak heating type of event. 5 to 10:00 is the window I would say on Saturday.

[00:09:51]And then I think we'll do it again all on Sunday. We'll have a reinforcing short wave that will be coming in from from the south south, you know, southwest flow aloft and that will kick off yet another round of severe weather.

[00:10:05]Same dynamics. It's pretty much a deja vu type of event, a blueprint from Saturday. Same areas, exact same areas, same dynamics with the dry line coming in. And then uh so again 5 to 10:00 would probably be another favored time for large hail, damaging winds, some isolated tornado threat within the Dallas Worth area when Oklahoma City, Tulsa, those areas into Arkansas back into East Texas. And then on Monday again, we'll be watching a similar area. It'll will push a little bit further east. You'll have this little bit of a dip in the jetream.

[00:10:41]So that puts areas more further east into play like into Little Rock, into Shreport, back into areas of western Tennessee, getting into the Jackson region into Birmingham, Huntsville, back into Nashville. Those areas will likely be susceptible for those severe weathers uh on Monday. And then that threat just shifts further east on Tuesday. So now we're talking areas along the east coast, the Carolas, back into areas of uh the Mid-Atlantic, getting into say Pennsylvania, those areas in Philadelphia, back into New Jersey.

[00:11:17]Those areas will be under the risk of at least of a marginal to slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday. And then of course next Wednesday, we'll probably looking at the southern plains all over again as we have another system that'll be coming in uh across. So guys, it is will it is going to be busy out there.

[00:11:35]This is like prime time severe weather season. So I'll be here on a daily basis now tracking these storms with you. So if you are new to this channel, please hit the like button, leave a comment, and definitely subscribe and catch the next update where I protect you before and after the storm.