This video presents statistical evidence that blindly betting every underdog in MLB games without handicapping or analysis yields approximately 44.5% success rate over 769 games, while cherry-picking only selected underdog games improves performance to 51%, demonstrating that value plays on underdogs can outperform random betting strategies.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
MLB 5/25/26 | MLB VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY PREDICTION & WINNER | DIME CLUBAdded:
I had somebody reach out to me and say, "You know, it's amazing how many dogs winning baseball." And I said, "No, if you actually listened to what I said before the baseball season started, I said if you bet every underdog every day with an absence of information, every underdog every day with an absence of information, you will hover between 40 and 45%.
That's it.
As of this recording, 769 complete games have been played.
No handicapping, no analysis, no systems, no cherry-picking.
You just bet all 769 games, you are currently right now 342 and 427.
342 and 427, which is 44.
5%.
Approaching that high mark of about 45%.
44.5% no handicapping, no talking about pitchers, no talking about ERAs, no talking about your favorite teams. None of this malarkey on Labor Day.
Yeah, simply just blindly bet every dog and you're 44.5%.
Small sample size?
One more game will make it the 770th game, but these are just the games that are complete at the time of this recording.
With that being said, let's talk about a weekly recap and running totals on the free selections. Now, if you didn't just bet all 769 games, but you chose to only bet the games that I've given you out here for free because you're not a paid member, you are 28 26 and one after the Tampa Bay Rays go down today, you are plus 17.5 units.
So, on a small sample size, one game a day, cherry picking, you are better than the 44.5% where you would have blindly bet. You're 51%.
So, okay, I'll give you that. But, you still didn't lose any money and you probably made a little money if you bet all 769 games.
Now, if you're a paid member of the Dime Club only, the low volume Dime Club, this week it was a uh uh After the Athletics and the Nationals won today, if you go on to my app, you will see under the Athletics weekly total eight and 13 and it was actually eight and 13 and two cancellations. So, due to the weather, there were two games that were canceled.
They didn't have the ability to play, so they're not even a push. So, we were eight and 13 on completed games minus 1.9 unit on the dog money. We're down 1.9% even though we were down five games.
Now, the Players' Club was plus 7.7 units on our high volume baseball model.
So, you take 7.7, you subtract 1.9, most clients are members of the Players' Club as well as the the Dime Club. If you're only a dime club member, you're probably betting 50 or 100 bucks a game. I get it. Um and you took advantage of the trial offer, you took advantage of the 2 months for 1, but if you're increasing and adding volume, then you were a net plus 5.8 units for the week.
So, >> [clears throat] >> low volume, you're betting 100 a game, you're down 190 bucks. High volume, you're let's say you're betting 500 or 1,000 a game with all the volume, you're up 5,800 bucks for the week.
Like I said, don't slip on the dog side, the number is in the pudding. The proof is in the pudding. We're talking about almost 770 games. 769 games to be exact. 342 and 427.
It kind of makes you wonder how all these people could lay these crazy prices, minus 200, minus 300, minus 180.
You look at these numbers and you just look at the math, and you ever bet a favorite, you're not in this for the right reasons. And I'm not changing my story. With that being said, look let's look ahead to Monday.
I'm doing this video overnight.
A lot of early games today due to the fact that it is Labor Day. So, Monday is treated more like a weekend.
We're going to rock and roll, and we are going to fade the Brewers with another stupid price. I believe the Brewers St. Louis was one of the games that were canceled today.
Um we're going to take St. Louis overnight plus 180 with Libertore on the mound. St. Louis plus 180, one of the best dogs in all of baseball. As your free system play, and as always, good day and good luck.
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