Britain's Labour Party is Doomed

Ajouté : 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]2024 was a great year for Britain's Labor Party and for one man in particular, party leader Kia Starmer.

[00:00:06]After 14 years in the political wilderness, a time in which the Conservative Party was dominant, the Labour Party won a landslide victory in the 2024 general elections. Even the word landslide doesn't feel sufficient to describe just how decisive this victory was. Labour went from having 211 members in the House of Commons to 411 with a 174 seat majority. To put that in perspective, that's a larger majority than Labour has won under any other leader not called Tony Blair. And Blair famously went on to serve a full decade in office. At the moment he entered Downing Street, it seemed entirely possible that Kia Starmer might replicate the feat. Even the biggest pessimist assumed he'd at least manage a full 5-year term. And oh boy, how the mighty have fooled him. In less than two years, Starmer has gone from being the savior of the Labour party to the man helping pull it toward electoral oblivion. And while Labour currently seems to be hoping that a change in leadership might salvage its victorious 2024 electoral coalition, there are good reasons to doubt that this will be the case. Reasons that could now spell doom for the entire Labor Party. The wave of goodwill that carried Starmer into Downing Street in the summer of 2024 did not last long. Within months of taking office, the new prime minister was making decisions that would steadily drain his party support until the situation got so bad that we decided to make this video. And that is usually not a good sign. It's sort of like seeing JD Vance campaign for a European populist who desperately needs to win. The first major issue for the Labor government was winter fuel payments. In 2024, Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exjecker, announced that a universal payment designed to help the elderly with energy costs each year would no longer go to the roughly 10 million pensioners who had previously received it. The money would instead go to those on means-ested benefits and pension credit, basically only to those in poverty. As you can imagine, this was a deeply unpopular decision, as taking money from voters usually is. But Reeves's plan went further than just annoying wealthy older people who could afford the£300 annual hit. The government's own figures estimated that these cuts would have forced a 100,000 pensioners into poverty by 2026. For many voters, the idea of electing a Labor government and then starting to shove the elderly into poverty was a little like if the Americans voted in the GOP, only to have them suddenly start taking people's guns away. That sense of betrayal angered people far more than it would have had the Conservative party brought in an identical policy at all in the name of savings that even Reeves admitted it wasn't going to amount to very much. The government would eventually reverse course with the benefits going to everyone who had received them before.

[00:02:46]But in many ways that just made things worse. Labor took the political hit of doing something deeply unpopular, but without any of the meager savings that would have resulted from following through with the policy. As you'll soon see, this has been part for the course for Labour since 2024, insisting that they'll do the unpopular thing to the point that the electorate loads them only to suddenly panic about that loathing and perform a U-turn. In 2025, for example, the government introduced sweeping changes to the benefit system that were aimed at saving5 billion pounds a year. The changes would have frozen extra benefit payments for health conditions, made it harder for people with less severe conditions to claim disability payments, and would have meant that people under the age of 22 could have been prevented from claiming additional payments for health conditions. According to hyphen online, these changes would have affected up to 3 million people with the government assessing that the cuts would push a quarter million people into poverty.

[00:03:38]Care to guess what the government did next? After taking the political hit, they retreated faster than a Frenchman uh with more than a 100 Labor MPs threatening to vote against the bill.

[00:03:47]For its part, the government defended all of these cuts as necessary to deal with what it claimed was a massive 22 billion pound hole in the budget that had been left by the previous Conservative government. Chancellor Reeves told Parliament that if this was left unressed, it would result in a 25% increase in the budget deficit in 2024.

[00:04:06]However, Reeves had effectively hamstrung herself by campaigning on a manifesto that ruled out raising any major taxes to balance the budget. And so, Labour was left scrabbling around for things to cut like a Tory tribute act. If this was all that the government had to deal with, maybe the political winds would have shifted as the news cycle moved on to other topics. However, Starmer also had the misfortune of having a cabinet plagued with scandal.

[00:04:34]Angela Raina, the nation's deputy prime minister and deputy leader of the Labour Party, was widely seen as a voice for the party's disgruntled leftwing against Star's centrist conservatism. A teenage mother who grew up on an estate, Rea was supposed to be living proof that the upper echelons of the Labour Party still represented the working class it was founded for. Given that a fair chunk of the working-class vote was hemorrhaging to the populist reform UK, this was kind of a big deal. But then it emerged that she had underpaid £40,000 in property taxes and she was forced to resign.

[00:05:08]While Raina would later be cleared by the tax man, it still left a stench around the party, especially since Labor had portrayed itself as the competent, sober antidote to the wild scandal seen under Boris Johnson. But if the Rea scandal had a bit of a whiff about it, what came next would be like thrusting the public's face into an opening sewer.

[00:05:28]In late 2024, Starmer appointed Peter Mandlesson as the UK's ambassador to the US. The rationale behind the appointment was straightforward enough with the independent reporting that the prime minister believed Mandlesson's trade expertise and networking ability would prove useful during a complicated period for USUK relations. What the government had apparently overlooked or chosen to ignore was that Mandlesson had a history of association with the convicted offender Jeffrey Epstein. A birthday album compiled for Epstein in 2003 contained a handwritten note from Mandlesson in which he called Epstein my best pal. A trove of Epstein related documents later released by the US Justice Department included emails suggesting that Mandlesson had passed on sensitive government information to Epstein in 2009 leading the police to investigate and arrest Mandlesson on suspicion of misconduct in public office. The worst part, vetting had revealed some of Mandlesson's Epstein links prior to his appointment, but Starmmer overrode objections to ensure the man known as the Prince of Darkness got his post. By November 2005, Star's net approval had fallen to minus 46%, putting him level with Theresa May at her lowest and below every other prime minister in living memory, except Liz Truss, who famously couldn't outlast a lettuce. By May this year, the pressure had reached a tipping point. In the local elections that took place across England and the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, Labour were absolutely mullled. In England, reform devoured their vote to the right, while the Green Party devoured it to the left, having been predicted in 2024 to win back control of Scotland's devolved parliament. Labour instead settled for a distant second to the SNP. And in Wales, the party lost their first countrywide election in over a century. On May the 12th, four junior ministers resigned from the government in protest, calling on Star to go. 2 days later, Star's cabinet lost its biggest name to date, West Streeting, the Secretary for Health and Social Care. In his resignation letter, Streing said that having lost confidence in StarMA's leadership, it would be quote dishonorable and unprincipled for him to remain as part of the PM's government, which is which is very intense for a British person. He also had a line that perfectly captures just how little trust the Labour Party has in their leader, quoting, "When we need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift." Despite all this pressure, Starmmer has said he is staying. However, most observers of British politics believe it is a question of when, not if, he is ousted from number 10. And this leads us to two major questions. Who will replace him?

[00:08:03]And can they possibly lead Labour back from the abyss? Now, so far, we've already met two of the people who could replace Star Dmer as prime minister.

[00:08:12]First, there was West Streeting, who recently confirmed that he would be vying to replace the leader. In his time as health secretary, he has had some major achievements, including reducing waiting times and waiting lists in Britain's National Health Service.

[00:08:26]According to data published by the NHS, the service has met its interim target of 65% of patients being seen within 18 weeks by March 2026, and waiting lists had dropped to their lowest levels in 3 and 1/2 years. Streeting has a strong media presence, is popular with the parties right, and according to the Irish Times, he is the candidate most ready for a leadership contest. However, some of the advantages he has going for him might well prevent him from being the next PM. For one, his closeness to the right-wing of the party, and that means he is distrusted by the party's left. In fact, some of his own supporters suspect that he might be too right-wing for the Labour grassroots, who he will need to win over in any leadership contest. According to a Compass survey of more than a thousand Labour members, only 11% would pick Streeting to succeed Starmer. Something else working against Streeting is the fact that he was formerly close to Mandlesson and any association with the Prince of Darkness is toxic to voters right now. Someone who won't have to worry about being tied to Mandlesen is Angela Raina. According to the Telegraph, she told Star not to appoint Mandlesson because of public evidence that he had maintained close ties with Epstein. Since her resignation, she has attempted to distance herself from Kstarma's project, emerging as even more representative of the party's left.

[00:09:39]During a speech to labor activists of the left-wing mainstream group, she criticized the party, saying that it had come to represent the establishment and not working people, adding that they needed to change course as they were running out of time to deliver for voters. Despite this rebrand, and despite the fact that she was later exonerated in the tax affair, voters don't really seem to be convinced.

[00:10:00]According to the Compass survey we mentioned earlier, she has roughly the same level of support as streeting and that of another name who might throw his hat into the ring. Ed Miband is currently the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. He also is a familiar figure to Labour members, having headed the party as its first Jewish leader from 2010 to 2015 before resigning and decisively losing the 2015 general election to the Conservatives.

[00:10:24]According to Westminster gossip, Miliband has been mulling a leadership bid and has been speaking with MPs about whether to run as a soft candidate, ostensibly to stoping from becoming prime minister. However, politicians have long memories and Milliband will struggle to shake off the image of an unsuccessful leader following the 2015 election. So far, the person with the most support, according to both the Compass survey and a Yuggov poll, is someone who, at the time of recording, isn't in the House of Commons and doesn't have the most straightforward path to a leadership challenge. That's Andy Bernham, a former MP and the current mayor of Greater Manchester. In the Compass survey, 42% of respondents said that they would support him, while in the Yuggov poll, he had the support of 47. And it's easy to see why. In a recent piece for the Guardian, Neil Lawson, director of Compass, described Bernham as electoral gold dust because of who he is and what he has done. His biggest policy win to date is the reationalization of bus routes across Greater Manchester and capping buses at 2 at a time when they were rising across the UK, contributing to the rising cost of living. Bernham has also built an image as a politician who cares deeply about his constituents, most notably by standing up to the conservative government over what he considered to be a weak and confusing support package during the co pandemic. This earned him the title the king of the north. But just like the real British king, the king of the north is not in parliament and it's not for a lack of trying. When the Gorton and Denton parliamentary seat fell vacant after the previous MP resigned, Bernham put his name forward as a possible contender. He needed the approval of the Labour Party's National Executive Committee, the NEC, a body that Starmer is a member of by virtue of being the party's leader before he could be declared a candidate for the seat.

[00:12:07]And given what we said so far, you can pretty much imagine what happened next.

[00:12:11]The NEC blocked him from vying for the seat, saying they were concerned about the cost of fighting a mayoral bi-election in Greater Manchester. For most people, however, this was a pretty transparent ploy to keep him out of parliament and avoid triggering a leadership challenge to Stalmer. In response, Labour MPs warned that Stalmer had only managed to bring forward the timetable of a leadership challenge by doing this, especially since Gorton and Denton was then won by the Green Party.

[00:12:34]But Bernham has found a possible route back to parliament after Labour MP Josh Simons representing Makerfield chose to resign to clear a path for Burnham's return. Of all the paths Bernham could have chosen, this is the hardest one.

[00:12:48]That's because while Makerfield has been considered a solidly safe Labor seat for decades, the electorate has been slowly shifting away from Labor. During the May 2026 local elections, Reform UK won every single council seat within the constituency, garnering 50% of the vote compared to Labour's 27. Before Bernham was announced as the candidate, pollsters gave Labour a 5% chance of keeping the seat. Political analyst Sam Freriedman has noted that Labour would lose the seat if anyone but Bernham stood there. With Burnham selected as candidate, the Labour Party are now the favorites. But a victory is not guaranteed. Should Bernham win, he can say that he has done one thing that Starmmer has so far struggled to do.

[00:13:26]Beat reform at the ballot box. And that will all but guarantee his place as the next prime minister. If he can't, then Labour might be in even more trouble than anyone realizes. Regardless of who takes the mantle from Star or whether Stars the coming leadership challenge, the Labour Party faces a difficult road ahead. So far, we've mentioned how Labour lost crucial elections, including losing every single council seat in Makerfield to reform. But this doesn't begin to capture the degree to which the bottom seems to have fallen out of Labor. Those local election results we mentioned a moment ago, they were beyond dire. They were catastrophic. The only reason we're not calling them apocalyptic is because pre-election polling showed Labour losing even more council seats than the 1,496 that they ultimately lost. As to where the Labour vote is going, well, Yuggov revealed that just 46% of voters who voted for Labor in the 2024 general election remained loyal to the party in the 2026 council elections. By comparison, 55% of the voters who chose the Conservative Party remain loyal.

[00:14:29]More fascinating still is where Labour's votes are headed. 22% went to the Greens. 6% voted for reform. The bigger question is why are they leaving? For some, particularly those who move to reform, there's a feeling that the Labor Party hasn't fulfilled its promises, especially on lowering the cost of living. This is a major issue, especially because, as the Joseph Roundtree Foundation, or JRF, noted, household disposable incomes were lower in 2024 than they were in 2019, the first time they had ever fallen over a full parliamentary term since records began in 1961. The economic anxiety this triggered was a significant factor in why the Conservatives lost the 2024 election. But while voters expected labor to make significant changes, this hasn't happened yet. According to JRF, household incomes have flattened since the election and are expected to be on average £500 lower at the end of this parliament, only the second time this has happened. The economy has clearly not delivered what voters were hoping for. And it doesn't seem like it will anytime soon as GDP grew by just.1% in the last quarter of 2025. A lot of this is not Labour's fault. After all, they've only been in power since July 2024, and they can't reasonably expect it to fix everything in a year. There are also international factors at play, including wars in Ukraine and more recently Iran, which have an outsized impact on the UK economy. But still, if you're elected on a pledge to get the economy back on track and make voters feel better off and then fail to pass reforms that do either, well, you know, perhaps disenchantment's kind of inevitable. Another reason voters are abandoning labor is immigration, or rather their perception of immigration.

[00:16:09]According to data from the Office for National Statistics or ONS, net migration to the UK, the difference between the number of people moving into and leaving the country stood at 171,000 in 2025, meaning it had harved in the past year and fallen by over 75% since its 2023 peak under the Conservatives.

[00:16:27]More importantly, it's expected to fall even further to below 100,000 this year.

[00:16:31]Net migration under 100,000 is something the Conservative Party has promised voters since the days of David Cameron, but has never delivered on. Instead, under Boris Johnson, it soared to nearly a million a year. So, you'd expect that Labor would be reaping the rewards of slashing immigration to near record lows. However, according to the annual immigration attitudes tracker, just 16% of people thought migration had fallen in 2025, while 49% believed it had increased and 51% expected it to rise again in 2026. This disconnect has fueled a belief that Labor is not handling immigration sufficiently. And given that according to a Gallup survey, most Britain say immigration is their main concern, that is something of a problem. And so you get the frankly bizarre situation whereby immigration is falling sharply under Labor, but voters don't believe it. While reform packs its front benches with former Conservative cabinet members who oversaw the biggest immigration spike in recent British history. And yet those same voters are all like, "Oh yeah, those guys, they'll get immigration down for sure." And this madness does cut both ways. Labor losing voters to reform many reasons, but anger at immigration is a key one. Yet, they're simultaneously losing voters to the Greens and the Lib Dems, who believe Labor has become too right-wing on many issues, including immigration. This is why we didn't just title this episode Labor is in trouble, but instead noted that they are doomed. Because unless Andy Burnham manages to block the loss of support to the left, at least the party is losing supporters on both sides of the political divide. Meanwhile, they're becoming toxic in Scotland and being displaced in Wales by both reform on the right and ply Camry on the left.

[00:18:16]And this is a huge deal. While Scotland has been trending away from Labor for nearly two decades, Wales is the party's birthplace, its spiritual home. To have lost Wales after a century of dominance suggests that the problems facing Labor today could be existential, beyond anything the party suffered during even the peak years of Thatcherism. Now, it could be that all of this is really just an issue with Kia Starlet. That booting him will reset the party's fortunes, much like how defenistrating Justin Trudeau turned Canada's Liberals from a party headed toward a once in a generation defeat in 2025 into one that now holds a majority in the country's parliament. Or it could be that the rot really is deeper, that whoever winds up taking over from Star won't go down in history as Labour's savior, but as the person who oversaw the final death of the party. Thank you for watching.