I Warned About Silver — Now Here’s the Plan

Added: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]selloff in silver. In today's show, we going to talk about the reasons behind the silver selloff, the levels we need to pay attention to in the silver price, and most importantly, the strategy to put into place to profit from a sell-off in silver because I still stand by this.

[00:00:22]I believe this next leg lower in silver will be the best buying opportunity for silver and silver stocks in 2026 and very likely 2027 as well. Big show today. Important show if you want to be a silver investor or you are a silver investor and want to know what's really going on. Let's get into it. Welcome to Hot Trades of the Day. Your show for swing trading ideas for the coming days, weeks, and month. Welcome to Hot Trades of the Day. My name is Daniel Wahami. If you're new to the show, hit the subscribe button so you don't miss any of the videos. Like the video from last week where I told you silver is probably going down. And that's exactly what happened. Now, silver don't hard in European trading.

[00:01:12]We'll see what happens in US trading.

[00:01:16]But what's more important right now is what are the reasons behind this silver selloff.

[00:01:27]If you watch this channel, you know some of them already and we're going to go through them because there have been obviously new developments. But let's start with silver itself. If you look at the silver chart, you see first off my call for an intermediate high in gold and silver pretty much here at the top is now three month in. So this has proven to be correct.

[00:01:57]And I've also said that I believe that we going to see a breakout in gold in this summer and this will likely take silver with it.

[00:02:11]But before that, we probably going to get one more sell off in silver. And it looks like this is coming. So why is this? Well, clearly first off with institutional investors, silver has been on probation for months now. You can see it in the weakness of the most recent rebound. And I pointed this out in a previous video.

[00:02:40]So, let's measure this out. This was the rebound from the first big sell-off.

[00:02:47]Bottom to top around 49%.

[00:02:50]Okay, now let's take the second rebound from the most recent sell-off that happened on May 23rd, top to bottom, not even 35%.

[00:03:05]So, you can clearly see that silver the buy side is losing steam. Silver is clearly on double secret probation with institutions.

[00:03:20]And if we don't have a strong trend, then you're not going to get the trend following buyin from the institutions that I've told you before is very important. If you're new to the channel, again, hit the subscribe button so you don't miss information like this. I just going to summarize it here real quick.

[00:03:38]The majority of the of the institutional investors are not experts in the commodity sector. They don't really know much about it.

[00:03:48]So what are they going to do? They're going to use simple trend following models to invest in the big commodities.

[00:03:58]If we don't have an uptrend like we have now, there's no signal. So there's no reason for them to invest. Rather the opposite. And there's reason one for this silver weakness. If you look at the silver price, we're making lower lows and we're making lower highs. So, we actually have a downtrend in silver.

[00:04:21]Now, it's not a big downtrend. And in the long-term picture, as you can see, it's nothing more than a gigantic bull flag.

[00:04:33]But short-term, there is no reason for institutional trend following money to be in silver. So, it is not. And this is what we see. And this is why I just showed you the measurements of the two big up moves that we have seen in the correction in the past month. The second one much much weaker than the first one.

[00:04:54]Now it makes complete sense. The institutional money is not buying because there's not an uptrend.

[00:05:00]Instead, what we are seeing and what is likely going to occur is we're going to get a waterfall selloff in silver. Now what is a waterfall selloff?

[00:05:13]Well, we have seen it here.

[00:05:16]Look at this. Last time we broke the uptrend from the rebound and we confirmed the breakdown of the 50. We went down in a civilized correction. We kind of consolidated and then once we broke, let me put this in here. Here we go.

[00:05:39]Once we broke below the previous low from this recent bare flag down move, bare flag down move and couldn't regain it. That's when we just collapsed and we had a waterfall set off because the price just drops down like a waterfall.

[00:06:05]So this looks exactly like the situation today. We broke the uptrend. We confirmed the stay below the 50-day. The move has been pretty civilized.

[00:06:21]And here's your level.

[00:06:27]And we're right at it. Maybe we can drag it down a little bit like here. Okay. So we're right at it.

[00:06:34]we break this level which is around 70 to 80 to 70 to 75 depending how how good your Picasso skills are.

[00:06:46]we break below this I expect silver price to do this a massive waterfall selloff now that is my expectation what is the zones that I'm watching the first zone as I've pointed out before is this double support of the 200 day which I've said for month we did not test in this last waterfall selloff. So, this is still out there and needs to happen in order to get a really positive long-term picture in silver because silver always tests the 200.

[00:07:32]We also have these two Fibonacci retracements here. So, this is the zone that I care about, which is around 64.

[00:07:41]It really runs from like 64 60 down to depending where the 200 will be let's say probably like 63.

[00:07:51]The interesting part is if this happens we're still making a higher low than we do at this this low right here. And that's will be interesting to watch. If you're more conservative, if you want to be more on the safe side, the big one obviously is this zone right here with the uptrend that has been in place since Trump tariff chaos in April of 2024. And then we have the big blue obviously support zone, former massive resistance zone right below it. I'm not so sure that we're going to get there, but you definitely want to have money in your back pocket to add if that is the case. But this zone right here, that's the zone that I'm looking for. Now, what is important to notice with silver, which is more volatile than gold, and we need to keep that in the back of our mind. When we get these waterfall selloffs, they usually have extremely high intraday volatility.

[00:08:56]And you can see this with the long wigs, long tails, I'm sorry, the long tails that you see here at the end of these selloff candles.

[00:09:11]Even in a more recent waterfall selloff right here, look at these long tails that we see.

[00:09:20]Right? So it is very hard to hit the exact low in silver because usually because of the volatility and you have retail panicking and you usually have margin calls and a lot of times the sell-offs happen in Asia. In Asian trading, it's very hard to pick the exact low when you're in front of your laptop or your smartphone.

[00:09:53]So, the the better strategy is that you put in buy limits if you want to get into silver. Again, I'm not your financial advisor. I'm not telling you what to do. I'm just telling you what I got to do. So to put in buy limits and are you going to hit the absolute low with the buy limit? Probably not.

[00:10:17]Even here you saw if you put it at the F Fibonacci numbers you got in here.

[00:10:23]There's another nice $3 like 5% almost that you missed right at at the super panic peak selloff. But then you looked really good on the way up. And I believe the next way up will be way bigger than this. It'll be actually way bigger than this move right here because I believe the next move up in waves obviously will be the continuation of the uptrend.

[00:10:55]Where am I looking to put my buy limits?

[00:11:00]I gave you the zone already. It's this Fibonacci retracement and the 200. So somewhere in here, I haven't really decided yet where I going to place buy orders for myself. I'm not saying you should do that to get in on silver because I've seen this this party before. Look at this. We broke out and look at the long tails that we had here as well, right? Or on the top right here. Look at these wigs. Whoop whoop.

[00:11:32]It's very very hard to catch those real time. So that is the strategy that I personally will take and I also going to keep money in my back pocket in case we break the 200 which I think would only be a shortterm break to shake out some stop losses of panicked retail investors of badly informed institutional money and then add to my position. Now what are the factors? Let's talk about that real quick. Why is silver down? I already gave you the first one, right?

[00:12:11]And that is well, a stock, a commodity is is kind of like the human body, right? When it's exhausted, it needs time to rest. It needs time to sleep.

[00:12:27]And then the market is going to give the body this time to rest and recharge and sleep.

[00:12:36]And that's exactly what had happened after the overextension in silver.

[00:12:40]That's we're going through right now.

[00:12:42]Therefore, it's on probation with a trend following investors. So, we have no strength. We have no buying in the silver market right now. Instead, we're going to start probably seeing shortterm additional selling because that is actually where the trend is going right now.

[00:13:00]And then the other two factors are obviously the dollar which yesterday tried a monster breakout put the fear of God in a lot of in a lot of investors and traders. Now they pushed it back down. They were able to do this but look at today's candle. They pushed it down and yesterday's candle and they were not able to push it back below the 200. This is something that we need to pay very close attention to.

[00:13:32]They tried to push it down here. They were not able to generate a major sell-off. Look at this. The last time they were able to do this was here and it led to a major sell-off.

[00:13:50]That didn't happen here. It bottomed very civilized quite early, quite early below that 200 and then regained it.

[00:14:00]They tried to push it down yesterday, got bought up intraday and today we're above it already. So, this is a really interesting development that people need to pay close attention to. If the dollar does this breakout above the downtrend above the 50, that could put a lot of short-term pressure on gold and silver. And then if the overall market corrects, we're going to see big sell-offs in the mining stocks.

[00:14:35]And boy, are going to love this because I going to buy uh them up. All of them.

[00:14:42]Well, not all of them, but you get the idea.

[00:14:46]The other one, the oil price. I talked in yesterday's video about energy stocks and to get in on energy. And look what's happening today with oil. If you missed yesterday's video, please hit the subscribe button so that so you don't miss any of these videos. Oil is attacking the most important resistance zone. We break above this yellow resistance zone. We at the very least going to gap fill right here 111 112.

[00:15:19]But then we're probably talking about attacking 120 again. And that again will put a lot of pressure on the new Fed chief not to lower rates as aggressively short term as he and the Trump government would like.

[00:15:42]So that is what is blocking gold and silver.

[00:15:50]And if we don't have any factors short-term for gold and silver, instead we have factors that are blocking it and the sentiment is turning short-term negative. Then what are you going to see? You're going to see a waterfall selloff because at some point people will just throw in the towel. But we know that the mid to long-term factors for silver are actually improving because the higher the oil price goes and the longer it stays higher meaning 85 and higher the more you will see countries coming back to solar which is the number one industrial use case for silver. So this whole situation is actually long mid to long-term really positive for silver short-term negative which is this discrepancy that gives us the chance to buy value in the market right now because it is focused too much on the short term and too little on the long-term perspectives on silver. That is it for today. Have a great day and we'll see us tomorrow. Bye-bye.