Dangerous Supercells Target Manitoba | Tornadoes, 120 km/h Winds & Giant Hail

[00:00:00]Southern Manitoba is facing a high-risisk severe weather day. Severe weather is in the forecast for much of the south. We are talking tornatic supercells, baseballsized hail, and winds that could top 120 kilometers per hour. And this is happening after Alberta and Saskatchewan got absolutely hammered yesterday. We had cape values, that is convective available potential energy exceeding 3,000 jewels per kilogram near Edmonton. That number is almost unheard of this far north. and it tells us just how explosive yesterday's atmosphere truly was. Today, that energy has shifted east and Manitoba is now ground zero for the biggest weather story of the day. Good morning. It is Sunday, the 19th of July, 2026. Let's start in the west and work our way east.

[00:00:45]That is always the best way to track a system like this. Starting in Alberta, the good news is that yesterday's extremely dangerous setup has moved on.

[00:00:54]The bad news is the province is not exactly getting a quiet Sunday. Alberta is sitting under what we call a vertically stacked upper low, a low pressure system that has lost its tilt.

[00:01:04]When a low stacks up like that, it tends to weaken, but it can still spin up some nasty weather underneath it. Environment Canada's thunderstorm outlook has Alberta in the minor risk zone, zone A for today's period. That outlook is valid from noon MDT this afternoon right through to midnight tonight. For the Edmonton area, for Grand Prairie, for Fort McMurray, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts in that zone are expected to reach around 70 kilometers per hour. Hail up to 1 centimeter is possible. So, just small stuff, but still worth watching. The main concern in Alberta today though is actually funnel clouds. Not full tornadoes, but funnel clouds. Environment Canada has that icon on the map specifically for the Edmonton region and surrounding areas. These can drop from the base of that upper low as it sits right overhead and they can form very quickly with little warning. Now, there is also a significant rainfall concern for west central Alberta today, wrapping precipitation around that upper low system. We could be looking at 20 to 30 millimeters of rain for parts of that area. So, localized flooding is not out of the question. If you are driving the TransCanada or Highway 2 between Red Deer and Edmonton this afternoon, take it easy. Reduced visibility and heavy rain is a real possibility, especially through the foothills region. Now, there is one more issue in Alberta today that has nothing to do with thunderstorms, and that is smoke. Wildfire smoke from the Northwest Territories has been drifting south, and today it is going to be streaming into northern and central Alberta. Air quality warnings remain in effect for much of the northern half of the province. If you have respiratory concerns, keep the windows closed and limit time spent outdoors, especially in the Peace Country and North. All right, let's move east into Saskatchewan.

[00:02:48]Saskatchewan had a rough stretch yesterday. Severe storms were firing across the central and southern parts of the province. Today, the province gets somewhat of a break, but not a complete one. Some thunderstorms that were ongoing overnight in east central Saskatchewan are still pushing eastward this morning. Those will gradually weaken as they cross into Manitoba throughout the morning hours. Much of central and southern Saskatchewan looks to see limited severe activity today with the main focus shifting east toward the Manitoba border. Now, the eastern half of Saskatchewan does fall into zone B on today's thunderstorm outlook. That is the moderate risk zone. Wind gusts up to 90 kilometers per hour. Hail up to 4 centimeters and up to 50 millimeters of rain are all in the picture there. That tornado icon is also on the map for that part of the province. So isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. For York and the communities along the eastern Saskatchewan corridor, stay weather aare this afternoon and evening. Now the cold front, the big trigger for today's severe weather is sitting along the Saskatchewan Manitoba border this afternoon. And as it pushes east, that is when things are really going to get serious. Now we get to the main event, Manitoba and specifically southern Manitoba. Environment Canada has issued severe thunderstorm watches for east central Saskatchewan and west central Manitoba. And the thunderstorm outlook has a large area of zone C. That is the high-risisk category covering the southern part of the province. We are talking Winnipeg, Brandon, Dolphin. All of these communities are in that high-risk zone today. Let me give you the numbers directly from that outlook uh because they are significant. Wind gusts in zone C 100 to 120 kilometers per hour possibly higher in the strongest storms. Hail up to 4 to 6 centimeters in diameter. We are approaching golf ball size here up to 50 millimeters and that could fall very quickly in localized areas. And tornadoes, the tornado icon is clearly marked on that outlook for southern Manitoba today. So, let's talk about why the atmosphere is so loaded up today over Manitoba because it is a really interesting setup. There is a surface low sitting out in western Saskatchewan, a 1,00 mibar low pressure system. From that low, a warm front is draping southeast into southern Manitoba and a cold front is extending southward along the Manitoba border. The area of land sitting between those two fronts, that warm sector is absolutely loaded with moisture and instability. Due points are running into the low 20s Celsius across southern Manitoba right now in July on the prairies. That is remarkable. The MLCAPE that is the midlevel convective available potential energy is forecast at 1,500 to 2500 jewels per kilogram.

[00:05:34]That is an enormous amount of fuel for thunderstorms. And the wind shear up through the atmosphere is also very strong. We are talking 40 knots of deep layer wind shear with a 1000 knot upper level jetream screaming overhead. Those ingredients together moisture instability and strong wind shear that is the recipe for supercell thunderstorms. And supercells are the type of storm that produces the biggest hail, the strongest winds, and the most tornadoes. Now, there is a wild card in today's forecast over Manitoba, and I want to be upfront with you about that uncertainty. There is a capping inversion in place that is a layer of warm air sitting above the surface that can suppress thunderstorm development right now. That cap is around -30 jewels per kilogram across the entire Manitoba warm sector. What that means is storms will not just erupt automatically this afternoon the way they might on a classic uncapped day. They need a trigger, something to punch through that cap and release all that instability below. The good news, or rather the concerning news, is there are multiple triggers available today. First, outflow boundaries from this morning's storm activity can act as local focusing mechanisms on the ground. Second, lake breeze and terrain interactions could help punch through that cap in isolated locations. And third, elevated convection storms that form above the cap can intensify as they move southeast into the afternoon. The latest computer models are leaning toward that third option. an elevated convection intensifying rapidly into Boeing storm segments. And bowing segments, also called bow echoes, are the type of storm system associated with extremely damaging straight line winds. In the worst case scenario today, we could be looking at what meteorologists call a do. A do is a longived fastmoving line of severe thunderstorms. Basically, a land hurricane of straight line wind damage. If a do tracks across southern Manitoba tonight, wind damage would be widespread and potentially historic.

[00:07:31]Now, timing. This is where the uncertainty comes in most. When will storms fire today? Environment Canada's forecast has the valid window running from noon MDT all the way to midnight.

[00:07:41]The Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center says timing is particularly hard to nail down today. Major activity could arrive in the Red River Valley. So, that is Winnipeg and area anywhere from late morning to late evening. My best assessment, expect the most significant activity to develop between 400 p.m. and midnight cdt. Peak danger is likely between 6:00 p.m. and 10 p.m. for the Winnipeg to Brandon corridor. But I want to be clear, if you are in southern Manitoba, you need to be weather aare all day long today. Do not assume that because it is calm at noon, you are in the clear. That cap can break fast and storms can fire explosively. Let's talk about what you should do right now if you are in the high-risisk zone. Number one, charge all of your devices now. You may not have power tonight. Number two, make sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts. The Environment Canada weather app, your local radio station.

[00:08:32]Number three, know where your shelter is. The lowest floor, most interior room, away from windows. If you are in a mobile home, a trailer, or a tent tonight, please make arrangements to be somewhere solid before evening. Do not shelter in a vehicle during a tornado warning. That is not safe. Now, let's also talk about the additional hazard over Manitoba today, and that is the heat. Heat warnings remain in effect for parts of northern Saskatchewan and significant portions of southern and central Manitoba. Daytime highs are reaching the low 30s Celsius. And when you factor in the humidity, humidex values are hitting 38 degrees or higher.

[00:09:09]So, before those storms arrive, you have got dangerous heat to contend with as well. Stay hydrated, stay in air conditioning if you have it, and check on neighbors and elderly family members.

[00:09:20]Now, let's zoom out a bit and talk about the bigger picture and what is coming in the days ahead. The severe weather from Manitoba today is expected to exit southeast into northwestern Ontario in the early overnight hours Monday. So, if you are in the Thunder Bay area or across northwestern Ontario, heads up for Monday morning. Now, context matters here. This storm system did not come out of nowhere. The Canadian prairies have been stuck in an extraordinarily active severe weather pattern for most of July 2026. We have seen multiple rounds of tornadoes, tennis ball- sized hail, and destructive wind events throughout all three Prairie provinces. Yesterday alone, July 18th, the Edmonton area was facing Cape values over 3,000 jewels per kilogram. A confirmed tornado was captured on traffic cameras near Rocky Mountainhouse in central Alberta's Clearwater County with tornado warnings issued across the region. Environment Canada warned of damaging winds and the possibility of longived long track tornadoes a rare threat for Alberta. To put that in perspective, independent Canadian forecasters described that setup as looking more at home in the Great Plains of the United States than in central Alberta. Not in central Alberta and Saskatchewan in mid July.

[00:10:30]That shows you how exceptional this summer has been. Now, looking further ahead this week, the upper level pattern is expected to continue favoring unsettled conditions across the prairies. The upper low complex that is driving today's weather will gradually move east and weaken early this week.

[00:10:46]But another compact upper trough is already waiting in the wings over Alberta, set to develop eastsoutheast Sunday night into Monday. A surface cold front will follow behind it, sweeping through Montana and into the Dakotas by Monday evening. What that means for the northern plains and the border communities in southern Saskatchewan.

[00:11:04]Watch for another potential storm window early next week. Temperatures across the southern prairies will remain in the low30s for at least the next several days. Overnight lows staying in the high teens will provide little relief, keeping that humidex elevated day after day. Heat warning criteria are expected to continue being met through the weekend for southern Manitoba and parts of Saskatchewan. On the smoke and air quality front, this is an ongoing and serious situation across the western and northern prairies. Wildfires continue burning actively in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, reducing air quality downwind. The fires between Great Slave Lake and the McKenzie River in the NWT have thrown enormous amounts of smoke into the atmosphere this week. While northwest flow has brought some improvement to communities along the McKenzie River, smoke will continue to affect southern NWT. And that smoke is streaming south into Alberta and the northern prairies as we go through today and into the coming days. Air quality warnings remain in effect for the southern NWT and portions of the northern prairie provinces. If you are in any of those warned areas, please limit your outdoor exposure, especially young children, the elderly, and anyone with asthma or heart conditions. All right, let's bring this all together before we close out. Today, the 19th of July, 2026, is a significant severe weather day for the Canadian prairies.

[00:12:21]Alberta is dealing with a weakening but still active system, minor storm risk, funnel clouds, smoke, and heavy rain possible. Saskatchewan sees a gradual transition, lingering storms in the east, relative quiet in the central and west. And Manitoba, especially that southern tier from Brandon to Winnipeg, is facing a high- risk severe weather day. Tornadoes, destructive winds over 100 kilometers per hour, large hail up to 6 cm, and heavy rain, all on the table. Timing remains uncertain, but the window of highest danger runs from this afternoon through midnight cdt. This is a developing situation, and we will continue to monitor it closely throughout the day and evening. If you are in southern Manitoba, please take this seriously. Have your shelter plan ready. Stay connected to alert. We will have updates as this system evolves. So, make sure you are subscribed and have notifications turned on. Hit that like button if this forecast was helpful. It really does help get this information out to more people who need it. And share this video with anyone you know in the affected areas. This is exactly the kind of day where information can make a difference. We will see you in the next one. Stay safe out there, prairies.