How El Nino Could Trigger Droughts and Food Crises Across Southern Africa.

[00:00:01]Hi Wendel, great to see you.

[00:00:03]>> Good to see you again.

[00:00:05]>> So Wendel, we're going to be talking about a a Spanish phenomenon or or at least a Spanish named phenomenon and unfortunately the day after the World Cup final, it's not the Spanish football team, but it's the weather system of El Nino. Um, so can it's Can you tell us just a bit about what this thing even is?

[00:00:29]Yeah, I mean we are talking about a Spanish thing. They are celebrating there but the El Nino unfortunately doesn't bring much joy as what we are seeing in the in the soccer world cup.

[00:00:42]Uh but look this is a change in a weather phenomenon and I think within the southern Africa region uh it signals the possibility of a drought and I think what makes this one uh uh even more concerning is that various weather forecasters in Australia in the US UK Europe here um in South Africa they've all been saying we are looking at a what they call a super El Nino which means then this is going to be much more severe. here but we can't really put a measure on it and say is it going to be as uh strong as what we saw for example in 201516 in South Africa which was devastating because it not only affected crop and agricultural activity but it was a drought that was uh really causing a lot of harm even on livestock. So we are all looking onto this but the basic sense of it is that the southern Africa region is likely going to see a bit of a drought. uh but East Africa they when it's El Nino receive more rain uh than usual. So it's almost like an opposite of a leninia which we have been uh experiencing over the past couple of years and has brought excellent rains across South Africa. That's what we are looking at uh Gabriel which of course then it's an opposite of the joy that we are seeing in the soccer space phase >> and so I'm I mean I was in Cape Town I remember the drought that that hit us there we got very close to day zero as a as a city but should we be worried uh in South Africa about what the effects of this El Nino will be what do you think it's likely to happen in the country >> I mean I would say uh Gabriel if you are any country Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia and any of the countries in the southern Africa region they should be more worried uh than South Africa in the country we should be worried uh but I think not as badly as back then there are two things that at least from where I sit I see as assisting in South Africa one we've had a much longer summer rainfall period usually It would rain in South Africa and summer rains up until end of March, beginning of April. But this time around, we continue to get higher rainfall all the way through to midmay. Soil moisture is fairly good, but also water levels in the dams are fairly high, which assists a lot because remember about 100% of our fruits and vegetables that are at least in a commercial level are irrigated. So if the dams have water that helps a little bit but in field crops which basically grains or seeds and sugar cane they differ of course crop by crop but on average roughly only 20% of that is under irrigation the rest is rainfed but at the start of the season I think the good soil moisture that we have will help us with seed germination. So to an extent that if we do receive rain, even if it's not as uh uh uh excellent as what we would like, if it's at an appropriate time, perhaps maybe it could help the the the guys sail through with their crops. That's the one factor. The second factor, Gabriel, is that we also are in a period of abundance in South Africa. I mean this time around we have the largest grain uh harvest in history over 21 million tons if you add all the summer grains and all seeds but for maze which is a stable crop we have a record uh 17.3 million tons on soybeans we have a record 3 million tons uh and in that maze of 17.3 million tons it adds already to some of the stocks from the previous season and we only need for ourselves a year about 12 million tons So that gives you a sense then that there will be a lot more supplies that goes into the next season which I think at least from a consumer perspective we are not sitting at a level like back in 20165 where we had to go to Mexico to say hey we need some white maze I think that we are entering the new season uh fairly well but with that being said I still think that of course we we we will have to be to be concerned because I can't just say uh it's Elino we have all of these factors therefore It doesn't matter. No, it does matter. But I think we are sitting in a in a better position.

[00:05:09]>> Why do you say that um our neighbors uh should be more worried than we in South Africa should be? Maybe.

[00:05:17]>> I think there are one aspect that worries me a lot is that our neighbors do not have the ample stocks as we have in South Africa. I mean Zimbabwe continues to buy a lot of maze even today from South Africa as Botswana, Lutu and many other countries and I think that they don't have that buffer stocks to keep them going. That's the one factor. The second factor is that they don't use the same seed cultivars as we use in South Africa and that's a policy choice by the governments that they've decided that they don't want to grow genetically modified maze and certain cultivars of of of crops and these cultivars beyond other additional benefits of higher yields and other things they also ensures that at least the crops can do reasonably well to an extent even in harsher climatic conditions. I'll give you a quick example. If you think about 2024, there was a midsummer drought. The season had started fairly well.

[00:06:19]Somewhere in February, there was a heat wave. That heat wave led to Zambia's maze crop. Uh 50% of it um literally being written off was very bad. Zimbabwe lost 60% of its maze crop. in South Africa which was exposed in similar hasher conditions we only lost about 21% of our maze crop that tells you then that there is some resilience that comes with better seed cultivars so for our neighbors I'm worried a lot about that but there's another thing uh Gabriel in the past there used to be a world food program which was fairly strong and now with the scaling down and uh you know suspension of a US aid of by the current administration in the US the US aid used to help a lot in the world food program in terms of their budgeting which then they deploy to buy food supplies in times of needs. So if we are heading towards this harsher climatic condition and there gets to be food needs in some of these countries and the world food program is no longer as better placed as in the past to actually be able to assist. I worry a lot then about the effects of that in the households and the like. So that those are some of the things that at least in the back of my mind uh I'm thinking a lot about to say what will the African governments in the region be thinking and doing in terms of responding to what seems to be uh really a hectic drought that we we may soon be confronted by. It was very interesting sitting here listening to your your answer to that question because it reminds me of the conversation we had last week about the necess you said the necessity for South Africa to move quicker on policy for uh new seeds and new seed technologies but you've given us now a great practical example of how seed technology not only you know as you say gives more yield but actually uh creates more resilience with uh essential crops like maze. Um, and so it's a kind of another lesson uh about, you know, the the the extreme um usefulness of new technology in the agricultural sector.

[00:08:35]>> Yeah, absolutely. Because I think Gabriel, those that typically oppose some of the advancements in in in seeds, they they typically think uh at least from where I sit that this is about us wanting to boost uh yields and do all sorts of things for profits. But they forget that this is actually something that is essential for food security uh because it gives resilience because the reality is that there's climate change is is is a challenge. We are seeing these erratic weather conditions and we always then ask those that are sitting in seed breeding to say what can you do to utilize technology to at least give us better genetics in animals that can withstand new diseases and other kinds of things in crops give us better varieties and cultivas withstand diseases and also these harsher climatic conditions but I think we are seeing um a benefit of that and South Africa then again to the point you've just mentioned Now we need to move faster and remain on a lead because the reality is that the drought patterns, the rainfall patterns have all changed and as a country in order to maintain the status that we are in and even do much better, we have to continuously sit um in a in a in a better in a better position to to to allow and craft a legislation that permits the quicker registration of some of these things. And I think this is a point I always also emphasize to say for colleagues in the continent. Um people can take some of the lessons out of South Africa. I'm not saying South African agriculture is perfect. It has many challenges. But I think there are a few things that if you are sitting in Zambia, you can look at South Africa and say perhaps I can take that and adapt it in my environment with the context that I I'm in. And I think it's through that sharing and learning and observing what each country is doing, we can make progress even as a region in terms of the agricultural advancement, especially in these times of these harsher weather conditions that are confronting our food systems quite badly.

[00:10:37]>> Thank you very much for stopping by again this week to talk to me one dealer. I look forward to our conversation again next week. Thank you so very much, Gabri.