Florida Storms a Welcomed Change of Pace

Ajouté : 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]The countdown always makes me nervous cuz it's like that's it. [snorts] When you get to zero, you got to go. You better be ready to do something.

[00:00:09]One day I'll have like a I do a little song and dance or whatever. I have a top hat and a cane and I'll do some Fred Astaire. I'll have a like I'll completely If I win the lottery, I won't tell anybody, but there'll be signs. And the first sign will be when I come on for the cold open and the shot will be of a stage and I'll come out and I'll do some Fred Astaire number and it'll just blow your mind. You just Right. be prepared for it.

[00:00:35]Mhm.

[00:00:36]That's funny.

[00:00:37]Yes. So um what else?

[00:00:43]I don't have anything else. I guess it's Yeah, it's been a quiet couple of days weather-wise, so I did see somebody talking about that on Twitter.

[00:00:51]They said uh something like, "Oh man, the the bickering in the weather Twitter is going to be a I think it was Pettis.

[00:01:00]Cuz there's nothing going on that leaves everybody bored and so they start attacking each other.

[00:01:06]It's really We're going to get a We're going to change the format a little bit in the summer. We're talking about that. Right. Um one of the uh the the shows that we're going to do uh we got to have a psychologist come on and talk about what is wrong with you people?

[00:01:24]>> [laughter] >> In in the in the the spirit of Tucker Carlson, what's going on? Yeah.

[00:01:31]Why are you like this? Why are we like this? Why are we the way that we are?

[00:01:38]>> [laughter] >> Well, I mean they said that in the movie Twister. Remember uh Bill says to Rusty, "Why don't you explain to her why you are the way you are?"

[00:01:50]>> And then he does the little Yeah. Yeah.

[00:01:53]>> need to do that. We need to have a We'll get a psychologist to come on and um uh what's Dr. Laura doing these days?

[00:02:01]Remember she used to have that show?

[00:02:03]Right.

[00:02:03]>> Westheimer.

[00:02:06]Sally Jessy Raphael.

[00:02:08]Too bad Jerry Springer's no longer with us. He was local. We could have had him on.

[00:02:12]We could have Montel Williams help us all figure out what what's wrong with you people?

[00:02:19]Anyway >> Harvey?

[00:02:21]Yeah. [laughter] Going to have to teach though. Sorry.

[00:02:25]>> Yep. It's okay. All right.

[00:02:27]Uh we got a pretty good show today. Good deal. A few things to talk about.

[00:02:31]Actually, I do have something amazing to show you. So, let's roll the opening and >> Let's roll it. I'll show you something fascinating at the other side. Right.

[00:02:51]>> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> It says banter. I like that. Banter.

[00:04:31]Banter.

[00:04:32]Hello everybody. Tuesday now, the 12th day of May. There it is. Welcome to Talking Weather. Good to see you all.

[00:04:39]As always, um few topics of interest today. Kind of a slow period right now cuz we're leaving this cool, weird, kind of May It was like 50° here this morning. We're getting ready to heat things up. And severe weather is going to be making a big comeback, especially after about mid-month, which we're almost there.

[00:04:59]Right.

[00:05:00]Heat's going to be building, all kinds of stuff happening. Let's say hello real quick to who's on the chat. At the uh very beginning, we got Karen, our man in Bermuda, Mr. Howard, and uh who else?

[00:05:12]And Catherine Burkett, way over there in the UK.

[00:05:15]Um good to see everybody. Hi. How are you?

[00:05:20]All right. So, let's jump back over and make sure I've got the correct setup for all of this good stuff to work flawlessly, hopefully.

[00:05:30]Yeah. Dryin.

[00:05:31]And I'll show you the menu for today.

[00:05:34]All right? All right. So, we get over here.

[00:05:37]And there we go. So, Florida, that other thing, well, we'll come back to that later.

[00:05:42]Florida severe weather? Yeah, CJ, could be interesting in your neck of the woods today. I saw you reposting something about it. Mhm. Dylan Federico was on top of it. Maybe our Miami cam down there will pick up some action. Hopefully.

[00:05:56]>> Big June, question mark. Uh Yeah. Not tropical. I mean, although that's coming, but a big June for tornadoes.

[00:06:05]I got to get a little like I got to get a library of emojis that I can start throwing on this stuff.

[00:06:10]>> Right.

[00:06:11]Yeah.

[00:06:12]They're out there. I just got to get them. They're just in the They're just out there. You just got to know where to find them. Exactly. First signs of tropical development, um my friend over in Bermuda, who I had dinner with when I was over there with Cornelius, Fernando, he posted something about that, Mr. Andrew Moore. Sting.

[00:06:32]>> And then, yes, the heat is on. And as Howard posted on our Discord, a great Glenn Frey song from the early '80s hit movie, Beverly Hills Cop, the first rated R movie I ever saw.

[00:06:45]And that's a fact. My dad took me to that, and we were in the small town of New Bern, North Carolina. Wow.

[00:06:52]>> we went in, saw it, came out, and he was he was almost trying to like duck me under a raincoat so nobody would see us. It wouldn't be a scandal in small-town New Bern. We were big Eddie Murphy fans.

[00:07:04]Come on, he was huge on the Saturday Night Live, the Gumby dance.

[00:07:07]>> Right.

[00:07:08]And uh Beverly Hills Cop was a great great movie. Anyway, the heat is on, and we'll talk about all that and more.

[00:07:15]First, national high and low temperatures, we have uh uh a typical contributor of Death Valley, 114, and then I'm pretty sure Scott has been through, knows of, whatever, cuz he's been to the UP many times, Kipling, Michigan, at 13. So, now CJ is getting some distance. Right.

[00:07:39]They're not right in there next to each other, which has just been weird.

[00:07:43]>> Like 12° in Peter sinks and 114 in Death Valley or whatever.

[00:07:48]Getting some separation geographically.

[00:07:50]So, we know Death Valley typically pretty hot from now on until November, whatever.

[00:07:57]Um lowest point in the lower 48, what is it like 288 below sea level or something like that?

[00:08:05]It's a a depression. It's deep. It's a big deep valley and the hot air passes and uh warms up like a bicycle pump and other thermodynamic physics make it so that it's toasty around there. Lots of interesting sites that you can see. This is one of them.

[00:08:23]Look at that. That's amazing. It's great. Look at that.

[00:08:28]Yep. It was scary. Now, let's look at this video.

[00:08:32]And you can see why George Lucas wanted to film parts of the original Star Wars out in this area. Mhm. It looks like the It looks like the Sarlacc pit.

[00:08:42]Right, right? Mhm.

[00:08:45]Um and uh anyway, just different views of the area. Uh this is what it looks like if we visit it on the Google Street View.

[00:08:54]Uh let's go down here to the Beatty Junction area.

[00:08:57]Last time I was out here was 2023 when I cut through the area in route.

[00:09:04]Good grief, look at the dust blowing through there. That just looks hot.

[00:09:07]Hot, dry, and dusty. God. Thanks.

[00:09:11]Um Hurricane Hilary was coming, so I cut through Death Valley from Pahrump, Nevada, where we actually had a live cam set up for the remnants of Hilary that were moving up through that area. And Death Valley got closed for a number of months, parts of it anyway.

[00:09:28]Um you know, the parts that man can visit. The valley was still obviously open. You know what I'm saying.

[00:09:33]>> Right. Cuz it flooded.

[00:09:36]It flooded bad. And uh when nature does its thing with the rain out there, oh man, geologic time speeds up and it is quite remarkable. So, 114 at Death Valley, these numbers are going to go up and up from here Right.

[00:09:52]>> starts to settle in for our friends out here in the west.

[00:09:57]So, my friend Paul in Pahrump, Tracy, my friend that works for the Las Vegas Review-Journal now in Vegas, get ready. It's going to be toasty out there.

[00:10:06]And uh Jeremy down here in Sierra Vista, they're a little little higher >> um uh going to be hot as the heat starts to build. We'll get >> Of course. It's about time though. It's been kind of cool. It's weird this El Niño >> kidding. It's been ridiculous. Yeah, our El Niño already starting to with stuff. Yeah.

[00:10:28]Kipling Kipling uh Michigan.

[00:10:31]Here's a Google image of it. Beautiful sunrise or sunset, whichever it was.

[00:10:36]Mhm. Oh, yeah. There you go.

[00:10:39]>> there you go.

[00:10:41]Nice. Somebody snuck that in there.

[00:10:43]That's great.

[00:10:44]>> Like candy country. When was this? This was uh from Coach Driskell, whoever he whatever Coach Driskell, from June of 2021.

[00:10:55]You know, with a with all the data that I bet we're not going to do it today, but I'm just saying we could figure out what caused that shelf cloud and thunderstorm right radar from it or find it and know exactly what what that was all about. That's pretty cool that you could do that. Right.

[00:11:15]And then the other side of the coin, frozen sometimes up there >> Nope.

[00:11:21]Right. Yeah, we're done with frozen.

[00:11:25]So, yeah, let's take a look at Kipling where it was uh what the hell did I say it was?

[00:11:30]13 13°.

[00:11:32]>> 13. Wow. We'll zoom in to Kipling. Where did it go? It's just so small it disappeared. Oh, there it is. So, we'll uh zoom in down here to Kipling, grab our Google Street View person. Let's throw them in downtown Gladstone. It's close enough.

[00:11:48]And bam, there you go. It's just pictures. Why is it pictures?

[00:11:53]I need the actual Google Street View, please.

[00:11:57]>> It's just pictures. What the heck?

[00:12:00]Well, uh let's just try to do Kipling itself. There we go.

[00:12:05]That was weird. So, obviously this is not the winter months.

[00:12:09]Right.

[00:12:10]This was June or sorry, August of 2023.

[00:12:14]If Weather Scott is on the chat today, have you ever been here?

[00:12:18]Actually, I think he's not going to be on the chat much because he's getting ready to put all the extra time in at work so he can go with us.

[00:12:27]>> And Greg >> Right.

[00:12:28]uh in a in a couple weeks. We leave 2 weeks from today, in fact. And I'm ready.

[00:12:33]>> that? You ready?

[00:12:34]>> 2 weeks. I am ready.

[00:12:36]Yeah, we'll have to talk about that when we get on the segment.

[00:12:39]So, nice bait and tackle place. They got lots of water around. Of course.

[00:12:44]>> Live bait. Ready to go.

[00:12:47]In Kipling, Michigan, up there part of the UP Yep.

[00:12:51]>> was 13 degrees above zero. Thank goodness for that.

[00:12:55]For the national morning low yesterday, Monday.

[00:13:00]May the 11th. Mhm.

[00:13:02]All right. Real quick, uh before we come out of this and go back to the chat and all that kind of stuff and just banter a little bit more. Not a bad look, CJ, overall to the lower 48 map.

[00:13:13]>> Uh the biggest threat >> is the fire weather here Yep.

[00:13:18]>> upper Midwest, the high plains, whatever you want to call it. Northern plains, there we go. Right. Uh a few heat advisories starting to show up some of these. This is in the valley. This is down here in Arizona. Some more fire weather issues here in Colorado.

[00:13:33]But by and large, not a bad start to Nope. the continuation of this to the start of the week. Not a bad Tuesday.

[00:13:41]No, sir.

[00:13:41]>> All right. So, yeah, we are uh going to be headed out in 2 weeks. If I can get this to cooperate, there we go.

[00:13:49]Uh 2 weeks we're going to be headed out to Trying to get this to switch for me.

[00:13:55]Um the uh Starkville, Mississippi area Right.

[00:14:00]>> to finally [snorts] go and What was that?

[00:14:05]To finally go >> [laughter] >> I got I was going to do some funny stuff today, but I'm going to just close the tab. Uh we're not going to get through the show. No, I know.

[00:14:15]>> school, his inner child was trying to I had a soundboard loaded up and I'm like, wait a minute, we don't want to be silly.

[00:14:23]Anyway.

[00:14:23]Um 2 weeks from today we leave for the big expedition with Mississippi State University. I've been invited to accompany Greg Nordstrom, who's going to be the lead instructor.

[00:14:35]I will be the driver, the bathroom manager, the uh the the hotel manager, maybe the restaurant manager, all those things. I'll be like the producer.

[00:14:46]And CJ and Scott are uh Weather Scott is going to follow along in the Tacoma.

[00:14:53]And uh we're going to go hunt in severe weather, specifically on the lookout for tornadoes and teaching this class. Um I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be exciting and um that's coming up the day after Memorial Day. Mhm.

[00:15:07]>> [clears throat] >> And it looks like things are going to be ramping up just in time, which we will cover as we go forward.

[00:15:14]So, who's who's on the chat? Who have we got now? Say Oh, Brandon. Hello, Brandon. And there's Weather Scott. He is in fact with us. Yeah, I did see him in there. I will be picking him up in Columbia en route to Atlanta on Memorial Day weekend.

[00:15:29]Late in the weekend. Um Speaking of that weekend, I just bought tickets a little while ago so that I can take Daphne to see the Mandalorian and Grogu, whatever the hell it is that's coming out.

[00:15:44]You got a lizard in your apartment?

[00:15:46]No, I don't know what that was.

[00:15:49]All I heard behind me was >> [sighs] >> Ah.

[00:15:54]Must have been the lizard that was >> me explain it. Everybody see that on Twitter?

[00:15:59]>> Something related. It actually like made me turn. I don't know.

[00:16:04]Interesting. It wasn't me. I turned my soundboard on.

[00:16:07]>> I know it wasn't you because I heard it out of my other ear.

[00:16:10]Yeah, it'd be pretty amazing if I could Yeah. do um ventriloquist sound effects somewhere else.

[00:16:17]>> [laughter] >> Yeah.

[00:16:20]So, anyway, lots of stuff happening over the next few weeks with severe weather starting to make a comeback. Uh and we'll get to that. And in fact, let's start with that shortly here. Go back to the screen share.

[00:16:33]And let's do what other topics we have for today's discussion.

[00:16:36]Uh we already did this. These are the bullet points. We already did that. So, let's go to this and that. There we go.

[00:16:42]So, yeah. One of Sorry, I'm lost. The heat is on.

[00:16:46]Now, with this, I was going through this to sort of prove my point about the increase in the heat over the next couple of weeks for the lower 48. And then something jumped out at me that I thought, "Oh my gosh, I have to show that to CJ."

[00:17:01]You just It's amazing. It really is. So, we'll get to it when we get to it. All right?

[00:17:06]So, uh let's go to the 18Z time frame cuz that's when it's typically [clears throat] hottest. Uh And uh so, this is today.

[00:17:15]And you fast forward it four frames. 1 2 3 4.

[00:17:18]And you see it starts to build 90s there in the Texas Panhandle, some 90s in South Florida. Uh very hot in Mexico, the Yucatan at 103, no thank you.

[00:17:28]Another uh uh four frames out, we get to Thursday, and so forth and so on, right?

[00:17:34]So, you can see the heat building.

[00:17:36]Uh finally, finally, my neck of the woods is starting to get warm. This is Saturday, we have a big uh Seaside Classic soccer tournament here in Wilmington this weekend. Yep, I'll be at the beach on Saturday myself, so.

[00:17:48]Well, we're going to be at the soccer park roasting our butts off. Four games we've got.

[00:17:53]Uh my son Josh and uh is the goalkeeper.

[00:17:57]Going to be toasty, so that's Saturday, this is Sunday. Uh close to 90, if not exceeding it. Look at this, Kansas, yikes. And it's not even corn sweat season.

[00:18:07]Mhm. 99° there in Oklahoma, woof. But, watch what happens.

[00:18:14]There's one of them, but watch. Let me find it.

[00:18:17]>> Mhm. Hold on, is that it? There was one of them that was just insane.

[00:18:22]There it is. Look at that. Mhm. What do you think is causing these little circle things? I thought that was amazing. I think that's the best >> Wow.

[00:18:33]That's really interesting that they're popping up like that in a global model.

[00:18:38]And you know what's causing it.

[00:18:40]Let's check the radar.

[00:18:42]It's thunderstorms. Yeah, of course.

[00:18:45]That's freaking incredible that that shows up on the global model.

[00:18:52]I mean, that's amazing. Boom, the rain-cooled air actually showing up on the GFS on a not high-resolution guidance. That's amazing, it really is, and then they go away, whatever. But, you can see the thunderstorms return.

[00:19:07]You can just spot where the thunderstorms are by looking at like right here, big thunderstorm complex, you can switch over to the radar, there it is.

[00:19:17]Pretty neat stuff. Anyway, it is going to get pretty toasty over the next uh Look, another I mean, dude.

[00:19:25]And this is right about the time we'd be leaving for our trip. Interesting stuff.

[00:19:30]But yeah, going to get really hot over the lower 48 uh over the next few weeks. Uh which is, you know, not a surprise.

[00:19:38]>> the unofficial start of summer.

[00:19:39]Absolutely.

[00:19:40]>> Exactly.

[00:19:41]Bermuda High is going to set up.

[00:19:43]And that's going to induce the return flow, so the dew points are going to go up. In fact, let's look at those dew points real quick. Those are going to be on the rise, as well.

[00:19:52]Oh, look at those oranges getting really far to the north.

[00:19:56]And that big Bermuda High sitting offshore, you can clearly see it right there. Thanks, Howard. We appreciate it.

[00:20:02]And the return flow around it, sending the deep moisture in.

[00:20:06]And the cool, dry air along the dry line. And any forcing mechanisms gives us the chance for thunderstorms in the the nation's midsection.

[00:20:17]Look at this. Finally, by May 26th, Tuesday, our our go day.

[00:20:23]50s and 60° dew points up in Canada.

[00:20:27]Right. So, you know, you know it's coming.

[00:20:29]>> It's going to be warm, steamy.

[00:20:33]Yeah.

[00:20:34]>> [laughter] >> It's that time [clears throat] of year.

[00:20:36]And that'll prompt the the severe weather that we're headed out to document and study and all that good stuff.

[00:20:42]Speaking of severe weather, Florida stormy today. This is today's kind of lame thumbnail, but whatever. There it is.

[00:20:50]Um not everybody is going to get hammered, but >> Unfortunately. Kind of a stormy day overall. We got that big fire down in the Everglades. Any uh storminess that we get, we can take and it'll be helpful.

[00:21:04]Dylan Federico, our friend down in Miami, heads up, he says, a round of nasty storms are forecast to impact the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

[00:21:13]This is due to a rare combination of the subtropical jet. Oh, that El Nino. There you go, CJ.

[00:21:19]Right. Hey, it's screaming over Florida.

[00:21:21]That's what you heard.

[00:21:22]>> Yeah.

[00:21:23]Yeah. I heard noise. That was the subtropical jet. Oh, no, that was not.

[00:21:29]At least not yet. We'll see.

[00:21:31]And lots of heat and moisture ahead of a cold front. I expect Florida's in Nailed. Nailed, he says, with heavy rain, I agree.

[00:21:39]>> frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. I've seen a lot of hail the last few days down in Florida.

[00:21:46]Lots of videos up on the Twitter of it.

[00:21:48]And you want to know what all of us here on the West Coast have to say to that?

[00:21:54]Right. I should have kept my soundboard up. I could have played a couple of effects.

[00:21:59]But then we start getting silly and it becomes a circus. But anyway, uh yeah, the West Coast and why is that, CJ? What is the deal? It's phenomenally west wind. So, what happens is when we get these west flow regimes, where we get wind off the Gulf, it takes that sea, you know, whether it's over on the 95 corridor or over here on the 75 corridor on this side of the state, and it pushes it over the East Coast. It, you know, helps the Gulf Coast sea breeze uh penetrate inland, so we don't see the convergence until it's already over the middle of the state, and until it's and then they push off to the east, unfortunately. In the middle of the summer, that would lead to us having these sporadic downpours in the morning, rather than what we're more typically associated with here in Florida, at least on the Gulf Coast here, where we get afternoon and evening thunderstorms from an easterly wind. The trades haven't really set up yet. Right. Right.

[00:22:56]Well, not Yeah, you certainly those strong westerly winds today. This is the 12Z HRRR, that high-resolution model, the cams as we call it, one of them.

[00:23:06]Convectively allowing model. And a few pretty strong storms showing up. In that guidance. And you know Mark, we've got a couple already fired up um out over the Gulf. If you'll allow me, I can go ahead and show you that.

[00:23:21]Well, why is this not responding? Yeah, please show me.

[00:23:25]If I can get. I'll go ahead and do this. Share my radar scope. If it'll allow me. Whoop. All right, it's all yours.

[00:23:33]>> All right. So yeah, um so I'm looking at the Tampa Bay radar right now and we've got a couple of decent cells that have fired up out here over the Gulf. A lot of lightning. Right in here. Tons of lightning, but I want you to notice this little guy right here. That is an embedded supercell. Same thing with the one above it. I mean, look at the values here and I'll I'll change my reflectivity colors so you can interpret. How about that? There you go Mark.

[00:23:59]So yeah, I mean they're pretty decent um hail producers as well it looks like. It uh but I mean, the beam's a bit up there um or weather service radar in right.

[00:24:10]Our weather service office here in Ruskin, I'm not sure that all of these are going to be making it to the ground, but let's just say we'll call it up almost 100 miles from the radar site in Ruskin. Um but yeah, we've got these cells that are going to fire up out here over the Gulf and they're going to work their way onshore.

[00:24:26]As the sea breeze begins to penetrate and move off to the east like so. So, if I was up on the nature coast, I'd be at least watching them. I'm not saying there's going to be anything major, but uh Citrus, Levy, um Marion, so Ocala down towards the Villages, Sumter, and then eventually into Lake. And over into Orange, but you know, you're seeing these over here on the east coast already starting to fire up like this.

[00:24:51]Although.

[00:24:52]I think yeah, no, that's definitely a cell. It's hard to tell cuz right now you never know, you have a wildfire out there because of how dry it's been, but I think this is precipitation and that's firing up over far northern Orange County right on the county line with Seminole. So, it's definitely something that we're going to continue watching.

[00:25:11]Looks like you're going to have some stuff going on over your way. I I'm not convinced that these are going to hold together and make it this far south as this uh storm begins to sag as this front begins to sag through the peninsula. So, I'll throw it into motion real quick just to give people an idea of where these are heading and you notice this northerly cell here is kind of moving like this. Yeah.

[00:25:34]>> But these are riding the jet stream.

[00:25:37]That's that subtropical jet just blasting So, imagine >> across and you can see that. See how the precipitation is kind of fanning off in that direction. Sorry, I'm not as good as tele strating as Mark is. Especially not with a mouse. Right.

[00:25:52]But yeah, I mean that's kind of what we're looking at today. That's what we're going to see more and more of.

[00:25:56]That's what I'm going to say. Especially when we get into the winter when there's much more dynamics involved.

[00:26:02]Next January, February could be brutal for the Florida peninsula. We're not >> right.

[00:26:08]Yeah, I know. We're not going to get into that until we get into that later on this year. But something to keep an eye on for folks that may be even flying. If you're flying from Atlanta down to Tampa or somewhere to Orlando or you're coming from anywhere up north into the peninsula today, you're going to have to go through this weather.

[00:26:26]Yep, up and around, whatever. Yeah.

[00:26:28]Yeah, and so expect a bumpy ride down 75 or you know, in a plane as you guys kind of follow 75 or 95 down here into the peninsula. So, something to keep an eye on.

[00:26:41]>> in South Carolina, also expect a bumpy ride. Yeah, well, that's a given. But yeah, but folks um up here in the panhandle this morning, um I've been getting some rain, much needed rain up here this morning. I wish this could all just push south. We need it to come south. The peninsula needs water.

[00:27:02]But yeah, I mean it's just it's a wet and dreary drive on I-10 this morning, Mark, as well as the northern parts of 75. So So just avoid it. Just stay home.

[00:27:13]I-10 is is dreary anyway.

[00:27:16]Well, yeah, that's that's a given. So I'll I'll give it that to you. That is a tough interstate uh for boredom, for sure.

[00:27:24]>> Yes. I've driven it once the whole way to Houston and I never want to do that again.

[00:27:30]Well, these storms, as we talked about, moving generally from west to east because of that fast upper-level flow.

[00:27:37]Pretty good coverage from central Florida over to the east coast. Uh doesn't look like too much activity makes it right down to Miami proper.

[00:27:45]So um maybe maybe somewhere on the outskirts of, you know, what is that? West Palm, etc. Yeah, I think it West Palm is more likely the northern parts of the South Florida metro. So West Palm, Jupiter, uh Stuart, Port Saint Lucie, that area I think is going to get What you all call it now? The The whole thing.

[00:28:07]Got you. From Port Saint Lucie down to Miami, it's all South Florida.

[00:28:11]Well, Dylan will have plenty of it on his station, I'm sure, and his Twitter and whatnot. And if Miami does get in on the action, we'll watch it on our cam down there from his condo.

[00:28:24]So yeah, we should check in on that cam every once in a while and just see what's happening out there. I was looking for the fires yesterday and luckily the smoke did not quite make it over that I could see across his cam shot.

[00:28:37]All right, so speaking of severe weather, we might as well just leave it with CJ. Marginal and marginal and more marginal. But it's not zero. So what do we got?

[00:28:47]Yes, so today again, we've already kind of went over what's happening down here in Florida. You got a similar setup as to the last couple of days up there in the Midwest. It's basically the I-35 to like the old US Highway 66, right?

[00:29:01]From Joplin the whole way up into Chicago that area. Again, you could see some issues with hail and gusty winds. There's really no tornado Oh, they did just update it. I lied. So, they added a 2% tornado threat here for portions of the East Coast of Florida.

[00:29:19]That was not there earlier when I looked. But, the primary threats in the Midwest are wind and hail. No surprise there, right?

[00:29:25]>> And even that's pretty low-end, so And then for tomorrow there is less than 2% all areas for tornadoes.

[00:29:33]There is a marginal risk there in the Mid-Atlantic region of the Central Appalachians kind of centered on the Pittsburgh to let's call it Wytheville, Virginia that Route 19 corridor the whole way down from Pittsburgh to Wytheville, Virginia.

[00:29:50]Again, wind and hail especially as these storms tend to crest the Appalachians and in the Blue Ridge and come down into the Piedmont. So, something to keep an eye on and you got that weird, you know, finger sticking down from Salt Lake the whole way up into Canada. Again, wind and hail your primary threats there. Day three >> Northwest Hold on, is this a northwest flow regime already out there?

[00:30:14]It very well could be.

[00:30:16]I think it's more the amplification of a trough coming in. Let's take a look real quick. I'm fascinated by Yeah, I don't looked.

[00:30:25]So, Oh, yeah, a little bit of a trough coming in some energy. Enough instability up to set it off. There you go.

[00:30:33]>> Yep. And there you go. That's all it takes. All right. And then day three, right? And then day three we're looking at portions of the central plains. So, Matt Harding, I'm talking to you.

[00:30:45]For portions of the central plains again, I think we're going to see mainly wind, hail. It should be a nice structure fest, actually.

[00:30:52]>> Yes. Beautiful sculpted supercells, probably LP, low precipitation. I think they're going to be more classic in their presentation. Kind of. Yeah, that's what a classic supercell is. It's middle, you have HP classic and LP is your precipitation regimes. Right. And then As we get into the picture Right. And then as we get into days four through eight, days five and six, that's going to be this Saturday and Sunday.

[00:31:21]Y'all have fun chasing out there in Oklahoma on Saturday.

[00:31:25]Um mainly going to be a dry line issue there. Again, supercells with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat.

[00:31:33]Um pretty much the same thing on day six.

[00:31:36]Yep.

[00:31:38]Right in the heart of the alley, lots of activity. Everybody's going to be off, everybody's anxious to spend $4.50 on gas.

[00:31:46]Go for it. Go for it. Uh just be safe out there and uh treat each other with respect. All right, this Yes.

[00:31:52]>> Some of these people, I tell you. We're we're going to we're going to have to do it. We're going to bring in Uh >> [clears throat] >> we're going to have to get like a dean of storm chasing.

[00:32:00]Like the guy from Back to the Future.

[00:32:01]What was he? The principal?

[00:32:03]Yeah, my high school we >> the uh minister of magic. Right.

[00:32:08]My high school we had a dean.

[00:32:10]And uh they still have that in high schools now? I had a principal and a vice principal. principal, then we had deans. And the deans would come out and we were goofing off in the parking lot, the dean would come over.

[00:32:21]I remember one time I was out there too late after lunch or something. He said, and we had a security guy.

[00:32:27]And I remember the the dean came up and goes, you know, Bob or whatever, arrest Mr. Sardo. He was there. I was like, "WHOA, HEY!

[00:32:33]>> [laughter] >> CALM DOWN." SO, WE'RE GOING TO NEED THAT OUT in the plains if this doesn't uh settle down [clears throat] a little bit. We need the Medina storm chasers to get everybody to It's got to kind of put some people in time out with the no tornadoes for you. Right. You saw what happened. We all got put in time out recently with shenanigans. Nature said I've had enough.

[00:32:56]Everybody out of the pool. Yep. Exactly.

[00:33:00]>> But, in the long range, once we get to mid-month and beyond, the signals are there. Lots of people talking about it that it really should start to ramp up as we get much more in the way of broad troughing and southwesterly flow across this region and a larger ridge out over the east and even out over the Atlantic.

[00:33:18]And uh little shortwave pieces of energy rotate through from time to time.

[00:33:23]And yeah, it looks like as we head into June, we'll get to specifically in a moment, it's going to be pretty active.

[00:33:32]So, the Mississippi state thing and then you me and Jen NWS headed out in June.

[00:33:37]Mid-June, yep.

[00:33:38]>> timed it very well. So, I mentioned this the other day and it's back in the news.

[00:33:44]Damn. Lincoln, Illinois weather service out of that office there.

[00:33:48]Illinois still far and away nice simple graphic for you. 109 tornadoes.

[00:33:55]Illinois who'd have thought that?

[00:33:57]Seriously. Like, what is going on?

[00:33:59]Um and that's Illinois has just been Yep. Illinois has just been absolutely pummeled this year. They're definitely far and away the the leader. But, no surprise there is Mississippi um But, hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Look at how far above Alabama and Louisiana and Arkansas sitting there with zero. Like, what?

[00:34:22]Yep.

[00:34:26]But, I could say that can't be. This is just your top 10, I guess.

[00:34:30]So, Arkansas can't be zero. Yeah, no.

[00:34:34]They're not zero, they're just not Yeah, they're not in the top 10. Um, I can tell you I think we've had all of two here in Florida so far this year.

[00:34:41]>> Right. I think we've had like seven or something like that.

[00:34:44]>> has had more than us.

[00:34:46]But, it's just crazy that um, 76 in Mississippi, but 27 in Alabama. Like, what the heck?

[00:34:53]>> been it's been a really really strange year for tornadoes, um, at least, but not anything we didn't expect. We knew that the early season was going to be more focused into the Mississippi Valley than the plains, but I think we're going to see a change to that geography, Mark, especially as we get into the later in the month and into June especially. I really see the high plains and the northern plains being the focus for a lot of these. So, it's going to be there and then maybe down into the Caprock.

[00:35:22]Oh, yeah. This region.

[00:35:25]Yeah, basically that whole line of the high plains from, you know, eastern Montana the whole way down to northern Texas and New Mexico.

[00:35:35]Very interesting.

[00:35:36]>> So, Camp Clovis 2026 is almost time for session. So, Right.

[00:35:42]All right, what's next? So, looking at June, uh, this popped up on my algorithm and uh, never had heard about this account before, but it it was intriguing. So, I figured I would share it with you fine people.

[00:35:54]And that is this.

[00:35:57]This favorable response will likely be accentuated by an upcoming MJO orbit.

[00:36:02]Giving another boost to the US severe weather potential through much of early to mid-June. I sent that to you and Miss Naramore as well. I was like, uh-oh, here you go.

[00:36:13]Yep, we're headed out on a uh, dedicated tornado finding expedition Yep.

[00:36:19]>> and history. Cuz when there's down days, we'll uh, go over some history with uh, Jen Naramore.

[00:36:25]But, um, the MJO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a driver in global weather, uh, one of the phenomena that we study more in tropical season, but Right.

[00:36:35]forcing, the tropical forcing does have an influence into severe weather realms.

[00:36:40]Yeah.

[00:36:40]>> Eric Webb talks about this a lot, and this popped up, and it was just a simple way, especially with the, uh, just I I like the brevity of this. It's just easy, okay, well, looks like June.

[00:36:51]Something about this this this, uh, account, um, Cyclone Guy 15, uh, what also makes much of June interesting for severe and tornado prospects is the anomalous warmth established over the central Pacific, also known as the Pacific meridional mode, the Gill type response from the enhanced convective forcing favors downstream trough and conducive for general increases in US severe potential. Yep. Yeah. We will We're going to be active. We're going to get that drone up and see how tornadoes do what they do Yeah.

[00:37:27]>> inception. We've done some practicing.

[00:37:29]Um, had a little bit of a break lately.

[00:37:31]I'm itching to get back out there. It will happen.

[00:37:34]>> both.

[00:37:35]Yeah. Very excited to get back out there and get on the get back in the saddle.

[00:37:40]Uh, I got to show you this because something that Ben posted, uh, was a little jarring. It's like, "Whoa." And so, an El Niño and you postcard makes a comeback for today, another appearance.

[00:37:55]Check this out.

[00:37:57]Uh, the notorious super El Niño of 1788-78 contributed to a global famine that wiped out 3 to 4% of the global population. Like, Goodness.

[00:38:10]Uh, it was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity. What the heck?

[00:38:16]I did not know this.

[00:38:18]Uh, I would better prepare for that.

[00:38:19]>> that year. Okay.

[00:38:22]What? I didn't even know was an El Nino that year.

[00:38:25]Never had heard of this.

[00:38:27]Now, obviously, the naysayers will say, "Wait a minute. Where did we get satellite data from 1877?"

[00:38:35]Right. Well, all of this is deduced from data, uh, you know, in the record.

[00:38:41]Um, but are we better prepared now? The evidence says, "Yes." Hopefully, uh, we shall see. But, that's really uh, interesting that the El Nino back then was within an overall cooler global sea surface temperature pattern for the the the world. Right.

[00:38:58]>> Again, this is all retrospective climate modeling. No, there were not satellites back then.

[00:39:04]>> We know that, okay?

[00:39:05]Uh, in 2026, as this El Nino starts to really take shape, it's within a background of an already much warmer background state due to some human-induced climate change. We are here. We are influencing it, duh, and natural variability with the climate. The two of them coupled, yeah, we have some problems. So, really fascinating stuff.

[00:39:28]Uh, and he goes on to say there was no way to know, uh, that such a powerful El Nino was coming in 1877.

[00:39:36]Oh, we lost Mark.

[00:39:38]But, the phenomenon was greatly boosted.

[00:39:41]No, we didn't.

[00:39:42]Did I disappear? You disappeared for a second. You're back.

[00:39:46]What is up with that? Why does that happen?

[00:39:50]Modern knowledge about the phenomenon was greatly boosted by advancements in climate monitoring and prediction following a super El Nino more than a century later in '82-'83.

[00:40:01]Interesting.

[00:40:02]The devastating losses associated with the El Nino of 1877-78 aren't likely to repeat today because the social, political, and economic factors that exacerbated the effects don't currently exist. Interesting.

[00:40:16]>> I think Ben is being very optimistic there and that's all I'm going to say. I I I applaud that.

[00:40:22]But I don't know. Um sometimes mankind does not learn from its mistakes. That's all I'll uh that's that's my two cents. Still, he says such an extreme climate event today could have significant impacts.

[00:40:35]Pretty uh sobering information here and a great thread and just terrific stuff from from Ben Noll. And his graphics are unparalleled, unmatched, they're awesome.

[00:40:49]But yeah, this El Niño really is going to be a big deal that's coming. Yeah, no, 100%. It's going to be a problem.

[00:40:57]And let's just check real quick. I know we have 8 minutes until it's uh lights off time for CJ.

[00:41:03]Uh let's check in on how the CFS is doing.

[00:41:06]Extinction level event uh El Niño, maybe it's just a hair above 3.5.

[00:41:13]That's insane. And that's the mean.

[00:41:16]Yeah. That's the ensemble mean, which means average, okay?

[00:41:22]>> Right.

[00:41:22]What I find interesting is though, Mark, that it peaks much earlier.

[00:41:27]We're talking like maybe a November peak.

[00:41:31]Um but still, I mean, we're already, according to this, almost a degree above normal. Right.

[00:41:38]>> And I mean, 2 and 1/2 I I think 97-98 was 2 and 1/2 or 3.

[00:41:44]And of course, this graphic slow to load that I was trying to pull up to show y'all something.

[00:41:51]It's trying. Everybody's hitting it at once. So, let's check the the ENSO region.

[00:41:56]Uh we'll do this. So, the area that we're most interested in, the Niño 3.4 as it's called, and Phil Plait always says, "Leave it up to scientists to label stuff uh that's just lame." And so, this is called the 3.4 region, roughly through here.

[00:42:14]>> Horse.

[00:42:15]Um that's it. That's literally what it's called, the Niño 3.4 region. Great.

[00:42:20]Great same people who came up with the moon.

[00:42:24]Again, I know it's called Luna, but whatever.

[00:42:26]Uh but this is the area that we are most interested in, sort of the um like when you take your temperature, usually it's through your ear, your forehead, or some other opening that we won't mention.

[00:42:37]The planet, we look at the 3.4 region to measure El Niño, and that's the area that we're talking about. So, when we go back to this graphic, that's that 3.4 region I just showed you, and it's just a tick above, just a hair above 3.5° C anomaly with several members warmer than that.

[00:42:59]The ramifications to this, and again, once we pivot into um our summer mode of talking weather, we're going to have guests on each week.

[00:43:09]We'll have Ben to come on, and we're going to have a nice chat about this, and I think it needs to be one of those, you know, close the door and take a seat kind of chat.

[00:43:19]Cuz this can have really, really big ramifications on global weather over the coming months. All right? All right, I don't want to scare anybody, but when something has not happened before, now it hasn't This [snorts] is just a forecast in a model.

[00:43:34]We're not there yet. So, I don't want to get too far ahead the the What do they say? The cart ahead of the horse, whatever the hell it is. Anyway.

[00:43:43]Uh speaking of MJO, and we were just talking about that regarding to forcing, Andrew Moore, again had dinner with him over in Bermuda.

[00:43:51]Uh Howard, were you in on that dinner?

[00:43:53]Forgive me if I can't remember.

[00:43:55]I don't know if you were there or not with me and Mike. I think you were, weren't you?

[00:44:00]And uh please don't get angry with me if I don't remember whether or not you were there. I have a very crazy life. Anyway, so that's how with the Andrew, He's in Bermuda. We were there for Ernesto. I don't know. These little things I remember. Forgive me. MJO says looks to amplify across the equatorial central eastern Pacific over the latter portion of May.

[00:44:18]CJ's knocking stuff down at home.

[00:44:21]The MJO is knocking stuff down in CJ's house. Yeah. Which should make the basin favorable for our first East Pacific tropical storm or hurricane.

[00:44:33]And yeah, some of the modeling the weekly mean tropical cyclone strike probability. This is a European ECMWF product, of course. This is a very fancy Hovmöller diagram. Don't even try to explain this to you.

[00:44:48]Uh but this is another Hovmöller diagram. The green is your increase in tropical forcing. Right.

[00:44:54]>> And where is down here the strip like a little comic strip and Mercator strip of the tropics. Mhm. And to kind of point it out, that's the area we're talking about. Eastern Pacific favored wind >> Right. May. Yum. Get ready. And that'll help to increase the forcing and whatnot for severe weather as well. Yep. Lots and lots of stuff going on and >> Right. I figured we'd just take a look at the 850 millibar chart over the next 2 weeks. Nothing yet, but we're just entering that time frame the the GFS typically with this little whatever.

[00:45:31]Starting to sense the change in the upper level pattern. Um but yeah, we'll start to pay more attention to the tropics as we go forward. In fact, >> Right. the first of many hurricane outlook and discussion or whatever I call it this year style videos will commence on Friday. Woohoo.

[00:45:51]Pretty much every day for the most part a short video with my thoughts on the tropics. And I think that's what I'm going to call it this time around.

[00:46:00]Thoughts on the tropics because too many people have stolen my hurricane outlook and discussion title, which you can't copyright that crap, so what can I do about it?

[00:46:10]Change the title. So, we'll call it thoughts on the tropics. All right?

[00:46:13]First one this Friday. Finally, before I let everybody go, we talked about our Patreon, and I'm going to do this pretty much every day, because it is how we support what we do.

[00:46:23]Not only financially, that is obviously very, very important. We do not pay for our gas, hotel rooms, food, and other stuff with stature. Oh.

[00:46:32]>> Right. It's Mark and CJ. Please have all the free gas you could possibly take.

[00:46:37]>> Right.

[00:46:37]It doesn't work that way. What does work is money from you fine people.

[00:46:42]But, it is a community.

[00:46:44]And also on Patreon is Daniel Shaw, and his work is exquisite. He does it solo, very interesting person. We have met him a few times, very dedicated, very successful with this. He is also on Patreon. One of the things that Patreon has allowed in the last few years is for you to join for free, and at least see their world, and then you can support it through a membership uh, you know, contribution of your choice at a later time. So, I just wanted you to be aware of that as well. All right? Daniel Shaw and other storm chasers are on Patreon, as are we.

[00:47:22]So, get on it. Support us, watch what we do, whatever. Why is this still stuck on screen share? What did I do?

[00:47:32]The hell is going on? It won't let me exit screen share. Oh, well. Uh, we'll go to banter. Yeah. There we go.

[00:47:38]I don't know what happened.

[00:47:40]But, it's just about time to jump off, cuz CJ's got work to do.

[00:47:43]Something outside? No, I'm pointing to the QR code up in the corner. So, yeah.

[00:47:49]Yeah, it's over it's right up there. So, yeah, if you guys are just checking us out for the first time, make sure, you know, you can scan the QR code. That at least takes you over to our to the Hurricane Track Patreon, gives you an idea of what everything is about. Oh, now it's over there.

[00:48:05]That's right.

[00:48:06]Um in fact, this Thursday evening on our Patreon, and I'm going to open it up to our entire Patreon.

[00:48:14]Even the free people.

[00:48:16]Everybody. There's over 2,000 of them, which is great. That's amazing. Yep.

[00:48:21]Join in this Thursday evening 8:00 p.m.

[00:48:23]Eastern time. We're going to do an update on where we have come with our Patreon, how far we've come over the last 8 years, when I really started ramping it up and all the other stuff.

[00:48:33]Anyway, this Thursday 8:00 uh I will post plenty about it. There'll be a Zoom. It's a Zoom meeting. So, everybody can join and chat, and we'll go through some history and outline some things for the future, and so forth, and so on. So, it's 10:50, time to let CJ This has been talking weather. It has.

[00:48:53]5th of May. We'll see you again tomorrow, Wednesday. Have a great rest of your Tuesday. I'm Mark, that's CJ.

[00:48:59]Thanks for watching. Bye for now.

[00:49:01]>> later.

[00:49:02]It's just bye for now.

[00:49:21]>> [music] [music] >> Mhm.