NUCLEAR TWIST: Trump scraps Vance’s trip as Iran issue stark warning

[00:00:00]Vice President J.D. Vance was supposed to be holding nuclear talks with Iran in Switzerland today, but the White House canceled his travel plans. America trying to keep the next phase of negotiations with Tehran on track. Israel and Lebanon have now agreed to a ceasefire after trading fire this morning. The Trump administration defending the memorandum of understanding, saying the Iranian regime knows they don't hold the cards.

[00:00:24]>> I certainly think they recognize the leverage that the United States has over them. Will that ultimately lead to a change in behavior? I don't know.

[00:00:31]You know, I've seen skeptics of the deal. People say the Iranians will never change their behavior. Well, maybe that's true. And if so, they don't get any of the benefits of the bargain. But isn't it worth trying? Isn't it worth seeing whether this incredibly weakened position that the President of the United States has put the Iranians under, whether that motivates them to change their behavior.

[00:00:53]>> Give peace a chance, Marcus. Is that kind of the bottom line argument here?

[00:00:57]>> Well, the Iranians know how to negotiate through delays. Like we've been on a ceasefire for 5-6 weeks now.

[00:01:05]I think they finally realized that the path to prosperity and rebuilding for them is compliance. Compliance comes with cash. The real question around compliance is, how do you how do you monitor it? Who enforces it and what are the consequences? And more importantly, who is the enforcer of it all? And I think that the USA needs to move itself away from being the enforcer at some point because I think Americans are tired of it.

[00:01:27]>> Who the heck else is going to enforce it?

[00:01:29]>> Maybe the Gulf states. The Abraham Accords.

[00:01:32]Abraham Accords. I mean, that's >> That's nice, but realistically, do you think any but anybody but the US is going to enforce whatever the deal is here with Iran?

[00:01:44]>> Uh, I I think >> like wishful thinking. I don't know.

[00:01:48]>> there's a lot of unknowns in in all of these equations, but the the the truth is is that Iran is crippled like it's never been crippled before. This is a moment when perhaps those Arab states who've not only been afraid of Iran getting a nuclear bomb who but frankly are kind of jealous and let's face it, they are part of a different sect of Muslims who have always had the the the Sunnis and and the Shia have never really got along well. The Iranians are the Shia and the Arab states are are mostly Sunni although there are Shia that that are in Iraq and elsewhere but there's there's a lot of reasons that I think people some some members of the Abraham Accords and and people who are not yet a member but who may be like Saudi Arabia would be thinking of having more influence and power in Iran than they have in the past.

[00:02:37]>> I don't know Digga and you think they want more influence with Iran or do you think they just want to be less dependent on anything Iran can touch?

[00:02:44]>> Less dependent on anything that Iran can touch. I I was talking about this last hour but just the 60-day period is a reprieve it from um kind of a headlong charge into what President Trump described as economic disaster or calamity. And it doesn't so we will rebuild our energy inventories and that physically is important but even just a change of thinking is critical that if you shift the expectations that we will not be spending billions of dollars over there for our military and you shift the expectations that energy prices won't be skyrocketing because that is all that uh like inflation expectations are built on and at and longer-term interest rates hinge off of. So if this can hold and we can get a grip back on energy inventories and keep these in these expectations in check is very healthy and so far longer term rates have been well anchored.

[00:04:02]>> Mhm.

[00:04:03]>> Yes.

[00:04:03]>> And that and that has brought down mortgage and will bring down mortgage rates from the recent highs.

[00:04:10]>> Mhm.

[00:04:11]>> Shorter end on the two-year Treasury that's indicating that the Federal Reserve probably will not hike until I would say even the beginning of next year. So the market is telling you if you look at oil and longer term rates that the messaging and this move by the administration is right on.

[00:04:32]>> So what if Taylor, you know how >> [snorts] >> Tehran was dragging its feet during the ceasefire. You know like we'd have terms, they'd have to send a carrier pigeon to somebody and it say it takes forever so we can you know it goes on and on and on.

[00:04:45]What if we drag our feet now?

[00:04:47]>> Mhm.

[00:04:48]>> What if we drag our feet on all this cash?

[00:04:52]And we drag our feet and all the sanctions really. We just drag our feet.

[00:04:56]We don't we don't unlock things and Tehran doesn't No, it's coming. Just hold on a second.

[00:05:02]Why don't we do that? Everybody's concerned about the money that that Iran's going to get. Aren't we in the position now if we wanted to to drag our feet and string them out and wait and wait and wait? I think this goes back to our conversation in the first hour.

[00:05:18]Whose side is time on? I don't know if it's on Iran's side.

[00:05:22]>> I guess I take I could see it both ways.

[00:05:25]Time is on our side and that the longer this trade is shut down, the rest of the world figures out how to circumvent them. We've talked about that.

[00:05:33]>> open or shut. They're doing that.

[00:05:35]>> all of these people saying we're reducing our reliance on the street to zero. We're done with you. So that's great. They're kind of doing China like COVID. We're figuring out how to change our shipping routes and our manufacturing to cut them out completely, which long-term I think benefits us and hurts them. But, I think in the short-term some of the concerns about the Strait of Hormuz being closed, that does have an impact on Americans.

[00:06:01]If you're looking at 77 a barrel, and I stole this from David, yesterday we finally got down to below where it was the prior year. Yesterday, year ago, we were at 77, and then we were below that, and that's great. Um I'm going to also sort of pick up on the economic collapse. I have a chart of the day for you. I don't want to totally call this economic collapse, and it's the markets, and the markets are not the economy.

[00:06:27]But, the entire gain in the S&P 500 this year alone has come from AI and energy.

[00:06:34]That's in red.

[00:06:36]In the S&P 500, the S&P, as you can see there, um below the declines are everything else. So, you take out energy and AI, >> the market's down.

[00:06:49]>> Market's down big.

[00:06:50]>> Yeah.

[00:06:51]>> And so, not to say that we've an economic collapse coming, but but for AI, we'd be like Europe right now. There was a European equity strategist >> you go too far, the market may be down those stocks may be down, but they're still performing, generating revenue, and generating profits, and I think that's >> Yeah.

[00:07:10]>> really important. So, I just want to this economic collapse isn't a stock thing, it's a performance thing, and the businesses are still performing.

[00:07:16]>> Wait, but how much >> have been moving their money. That that's what's going on. They're they're trying to get hold of that AI miracle, and taking their money out of stock, not because it's bad companies, just cuz they want to move their money someplace else.

[00:07:27]>> What but how much if you remove AI, how much what is the performance of those stocks?

[00:07:36]The raw performance.

[00:07:38]>> know what the performance is.

[00:07:39]>> Yeah, in that chart, what's the raw performance of those stocks if you take out >> It >> See, that was just measuring market cap.

[00:07:47]So, you take out market cap of AI and energy and it's negative. Negative performance in the S&P 500. Now, again, that's not the economy and those stocks are even though they're declines on the year, they still are hiring and they have jobs.

[00:08:03]>> He's right about David's right about the reallocation. It's the reallocation. Can I just say one thing though that hasn't been brought up yet, which is that uh the the Israelis, I know we have our different different feelings about what should be done with regard to Lebanon right now. The president was pointing them out to some mistakes that he thought they were making. They are still on the ground in Iran. They have extraordinary intelligence. According to General Keane, they have been collecting more and more of that intelligence over the past 2 months. Because of the ceasefire, they've been able to to to send out their tentacles a little more than they had before. If this thing gets hot again, which it may, uh there are so many specific targets that are going to be hit that could bring absolutely bring bring the Iran Whoever's in charge there, however that that disparate group of individuals who think they're in charge work, uh this could really change things inside Iran. I'm not saying that that this should all be all about regime change because that's a very tough deal in a country of 91 million people. Really tough anywhere. It's tough in a small country like Libya, but in Iran it's it's very very difficult, but the we can't underestimate the degree to which another strike would hurt them, perhaps even more because the the nuclear strike was so focused on that one area. That was back about a year ago. The other strikes were incomplete because of the the cutoff for the ceasefire. Uh the general Keane thought that it should have gone out another 2 weeks, but now that strike that takes place, if it does, Iranians better watch out because they know where every single one of And now the Ayatollah has lifted his crippled head a little bit out of the out of the dirt, out of the bunker. So, I mean, they they're going to get them all.

[00:09:49]>> Well, I was just going to say, check your beepers.

[00:09:52]>> Yeah.

[00:09:53]>> Yeah. Well, your point is is that the delay is fortifying.

[00:09:57]>> Yeah, it's not necessarily doing nothing. There's a lot of work being done >> Both both economically by learning how to work without >> Yes.

[00:10:04]>> and strategically by knowing if you are going to have to punch somebody in the nose, what side of the nose and when.

[00:10:11]>> What's What was Trump saying? He said we know we know every door they walk through.

[00:10:17]When you know every door they walk through, there's a lot that is hanging over their heads and that you can do if they don't comply. I think that's pretty powerful.

[00:10:26]>> I think everybody has deal fatigue though.

[00:10:28]There's a lot of deal fatigue right now.

[00:10:31]>> Well, looks like Marco did.

[00:10:32]>> I would just say, Brian, my bus driver this morning looked to me and he's like, "This has been a really long time. What did we get that we didn't have before?

[00:10:39]I'm over this."

[00:10:41]>> You know what?

[00:10:41]>> I'm just That's one person in a blue city. I get it. I'm just telling you what I was told.

[00:10:46]>> It's funny though. How many days was it?

[00:10:48]100 some?

[00:10:49]>> I know. That's what I said. I said it wasn't that long. It was only 3 months.

[00:10:53]>> weeks though. It was going to be a couple weeks though.

[00:10:56]>> I would have bit Well, my response would have been the long time is how much you're on the Tik Tok and the Gram cuz that's where you're getting your influence and news.

[00:11:08]>> 47 years, 100 days.

[00:11:10]>> I know. I hear you.