The Energy Rotation Nobody is Watching

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Today we're going to talk about oil and even more interestingly the oil stocks and the oil services stocks. Nobody's paying attention to them anymore after the April correction, but there's a development in the oil stocks that we are catching early that could be quite lucrative for energy investors. Let's get into it. Welcome to Hot Trades of the Day, your show for swing trading ideas for the coming days, weeks, and month. Hi, my name is Daniel Wilhelm. If you've been with this channel, Hot Trades of the Day, for a while, then you know we talked about oil and oil stocks and I recommended energy stocks last fall and winter when nobody was buying them. And we made out like bandits until the correction in April. And now all of a sudden, nobody's talking about energy stocks anymore. Now, this is the scenario I absolutely love.

[00:00:58]We have a clear bull market in the energy stocks, specifically oil stocks, oil services, but after a correction, nobody's talking about them anymore. They're completely out of favor. Which means if we are not procrastinating creating our watch lists, then we have a perfect opportunity to gobble up the most promising looking oil stocks and energy stocks after the correction at cheap prices. Now, let's start with the oil price. As you can see, oil has broken the downtrend, is moving up. We don't know yet if it's just a bare flag or not. It's very clear that that yellow resistance zone around $100 a barrel is severe. The oil price is struggling with it. I mean, that's good for all of us.

[00:01:58]But here's the thing.

[00:02:00]Look how high the oil prices now. Look how it has established itself around 905 a barrel.

[00:02:12]That is 28 barrels higher at $28 per barrel higher than we were just two months ago or if you calculate it that's about 40% higher and that's the new normal. The market clearly has accepted that.

[00:02:30]we see that there's a change in trend in the oil price and the the easiest way to look at it is just the 50-day the purple line and the 200 the yellow line and as you can see downtrend in the purple line uptrend now sometimes the market is really easy downtrend in the 200 change in trend 200 is moving up the 200 100 pushed the oil price down all the way summer, fall, winter. Look how doink doink doink doink doink.

[00:03:09]We broke it, retested it and we just retested it again and it held successfully in March. So we clearly have an uptrend in the oil price. Now again short-term volatility will always be high with oil when we have high geopolitical tension in the Middle East and has always been the case if at some point somehow and nobody will know how that would happen but if there would be a solution for the street off a moose shortterm the oil price for sure will correct but overall now there will be a risk premium priced into the oil market because of the situation in the Middle East.

[00:04:00]So, who's the big winner of higher oil prices? Well, the oil companies also specifically the oil services companies because now with the higher oil prices, the oil companies will go back and on the offense and say enough of this procrastinating of exploration and development of new oil projects.

[00:04:28]Let's get to it. The oil prices are higher. or countries will say we got to start drilling because we need to find more energy to make sure that we are protected uh against events like the street of Hamus.

[00:04:44]So let's take a look at some of the oil and energy stocks that nobody's talking about, right? Because nobody cares. And there's another reason why nobody's talking about the old stocks right now.

[00:04:58]And that is, and this is the interesting part, and this is the part why you hit the subscribe button, because you get information here that you don't get anywhere else. If you just look at the XLE, then you say, which is the the most popular energy ETF, then you say, wait a minute, what is this German clown talking about?

[00:05:25]Right? We broke below the 50. We're we're below the 50.

[00:05:30]Why do I need to pay attention to the energy stocks right now? Fair enough, right? But again, that's the reason why you watch this channel because we don't just look at this ETF. We look under the hood. We get the information that's really interesting. Now again, reason being why why the ATF looks like it does and why nobody's really talking about the oil stocks right now is the majority of the big US oil stocks don't look good. Kico Phillips fighting with the 50 day. Oh, that's not great.

[00:06:08]Exxon bro below the 50, broke the 50, didn't even get all the way back to the 50. Now, I'm still really bullish on Exxon longterm, but shortterm that doesn't look great, right? We made a new low here. We're clearly fighting with this support zone. Now, let me draw this in for you real quick.

[00:06:30]Right. This is what we're fighting with.

[00:06:33]That's not great. Oxy fighting hard with a 50-day. Yeah, we're still above it, but that doesn't look so good. So, the US oil stocks are not hot.

[00:06:44]Therefore, Wall Street is not talking about them and then it's out of the news because by now oil prices of $95, even if it if it hits $100, that's kind of old news. We have seen this before. This was big news in March. Now, not so much anymore.

[00:07:02]But here is the thing.

[00:07:06]The American oil stocks don't look great, but look at the European oil stocks.

[00:07:12]This is Shell, the British Dutch oil giant.

[00:07:22]Downtrend, broken, bounced off the 50, is moving off the 50.

[00:07:29]Looks great.

[00:07:32]Equinor, the Norwegian oil and energy giant, hit the 50, confirmed the 50. uptrend is just about to break the downtrend.

[00:07:43]Total Energies, the French oil company, tested the 50 in the sell-off, bounced off it, moving up. The European oil stocks are looking great. Remember how how been how I've been telling you in the past, I don't think we're going to see capital flowing out of the energy sector. Institutional money, big money, doesn't want to be out of the energy sector. It's going to rotate within the energy sector. That is exactly what we're seeing. It's rotating from the US oil stocks right now into the big European oil stocks and energy stocks.

[00:08:21]This is where the action is and this is what the ETFs don't pick up because they hold all these positions or some of them only focus on the North American oil stocks and then you miss this move completely. And again, if you like this information, hit the subscribe button. These are the type of information that we talk about. So, I'm not your financial advisor. I'm not telling you to run out there and buy the European oil stocks, but looking at it could be interesting if you want to increase your energy exposure. Now, if you're in the US, if you say, "Ah, I only want to buy North American energy stocks." Fair enough.

[00:08:59]Let's take a look at the oil services because this is where the action is.

[00:09:05]And then I'm going to give you one more energy stock, European one, that I really like. So, Kinder Morgan, one of the prime big blue chips for the oil services really doing nothing. As you can see, we broke below the 50. We're in a downtrend.

[00:09:24]Yes, this this support zone right here, I should make this actually blue. Sorry about that. Here we go.

[00:09:31]has held perfectly for so we defined this great you see these long wigs in the past trading sessions anytime we get to the lower end people start buying it up but really not what's upwards dynamic right well again selection is where it's at look at Hallebertton remember Hallebertton yeah that Hallebertton I pointed this stock out to you I think two months ago three months ago when we were at like 35ish and said pay attention to Hallebertton.

[00:10:05]That one is paying off beautifully for us. As you can see, we made barely, but we made a new high on the close.

[00:10:17]We are moving up. We close above this candle right here. This high.

[00:10:23]Perfect.

[00:10:25]Great looking stock. Hallebertton, big company. Why did I point it out back then? I said the big oil services companies, that's what the institutions can buy. This is where the institutional money is going to flow into when we're going to rotate, right? That's why they're flowing now into the big European oil stocks. Hallebertton looks great. You get a weakness in Hallebertton.

[00:10:50]That's that's a stock that could be really interesting to add to your to your energy exposure to be into the oil services sector. Yeah, we have we've ripped open a couple of gaps, but probably this is the gap fill because this uptrend has been respected that goes all the way back right to the fall October which started this uptrend in Hallebertton and we're above the 50 which is right below it. As you can see, we're not too far we're not too far removed from the 50-day. This is completely healthy. We just tested it like 10 days ago. So that is one that looks really good. Another one, Valero. Now that's a refiner.

[00:11:30]That's not really an oil service stock.

[00:11:34]We're still in a downtrend. So this one is not not as strong as Whoops.

[00:11:42]as Hallebertton looks, but I really like it compared to the oil stocks. Look how we just bounced off the 50-day in the past week or Yeah, it was past week it held. We're moving up. We're consolidating.

[00:12:04]This is a typical behavior that we have seen in the stock right here, here, here. Always these consolidation periods and then we move higher. And once we start moving higher, voom with authority, right? You break out, gap up, power move, break out, big move, break out, move. So once we break this downtrend in Valero Energies, there's a big up move coming.

[00:12:31]That's in the cards. Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen tomorrow. I'm not going to say it's going to consolidate, but that is a stock that again, you do your homework. you put on your watch list and then you say, "Okay, if it triggers the signal that I'm looking for, this could be ready to party and I want to get in." Now, to end this, I want to show you a eur another European um oil stock that nobody's talking about that looks great.

[00:13:02]GF Keystone Petroleum. I talked about it in February when we saw this breakout right here.

[00:13:09]So, this worked out beautifully and you can see this this Why is this still yellow? Will help me. What are what are you doing? What's going on with your brain? Sorry, I can't be smart and good-looking at the same time.

[00:13:23]We came back to it, tested it, had a huge run up. Another one. Now, we came back, tested it. Look at this. We broke the downtrend last week.

[00:13:33]the 200 held. Yes, we're still below the 50, but this is an interesting setup because we have seen before what happens once we successfully come out of this now support zone, we take the we take the 50, this stock is going to be a runner. But if we can get it on some weakness, this could be an interesting stock as well. But this is more of a clearly a swing trading stock that you see here with these type of moves. Well, that's it for today.

[00:14:08]Big weeks of earnings this week. Big week for gold. Why? We're going to talk about it in tomorrow's video. Oh, and I got this one for you. This is a this is a good one. If you had a rough day today, if you need a good laugh, just go to YouTube and type in the most German man in the world.

[00:14:32]You can thank me later. Write write in the comments how you liked it. I was tears were running down my face laughing. It's a good one. Especially if you need a pickme up for a good laugh.

[00:14:46]See you tomorrow. Bye-bye.