Why this is Not a Real Bull Market!!!

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Okay, welcome all. Happy weekend. So today I want to talk about the hurt mentality and what's going on with the current market sentiments. So if you go to online discussions on forums, I would say that the general feeling that retail investors have now is a big word called regret. Do you regret missing out on the current bull market? So we see that many index are doing very well. The Korean uh index, South Korea index is rocketing or then the Taiwan index is also rallying.

[00:00:38]The US NASDAQ is also rallying. So some retail investors they feel that their portfolio the gains is very small or their portfolio is not moving especially if they have exposure to Singapore and Hong Kong market. They feel that the Hansen index and the straight times index is underperforming whereas the US market continues to be so strong. They are missing out in this bull market. So first of all I want to clarify that currently this is not a real bull market. Later I will explain why. What we are seeing now right is actually a very sectorbased rally and this sector is called semiconductor.

[00:01:27]So you are disappointed oh why the Hong Kong market don't perform because the Hong Kong and the Singapore market within the index there isn't any major semiconductor stock. Example, the Taiwan market keep rocketing is because they have TSMC, Taiwan semiconductor and this kind of the dinosaur index their weightage is based on market capitalization. So I mentioned many times that I don't like the stress times index because half the market cap is in the big tree banks. So the STI is a bank index.

[00:02:04]The Taiwan index is a semiconductor index because TSMC makes up 50% weightage, half the index. The same is also for the South Korea uh index.

[00:02:18]Samsung and SKH Highex together makes up more than 40% of the index. Yeah. So that's what's happening. So different country the index is performing differently based on their exposure to the semiconductor industry. So the NASDAQ the top 10 performers was the NASDAQ 100 is 100 tech companies tech that is the software side and the hardware side. So the hardware tech is rocketing like crazy. Few thousand percentage gains that I mentioned uh scandis, micron, uh AMD, Intel, they all doing very well uh in the US market. So this cause investors to feel disappointed. They feel that they made a mistake or you invest in Hong Kong market now is not rallying when when others are rallying. that if the US market crash then the Hong Kong market will also go down. So they feel that this is a lousy market. US market is the best and most superior. If you ask for opinions on Reddit or on forums, everyone will tell you that US market is the best long-term just buy and hold US and you will perform very well. But I told you many times that works in the past 20 to 30 years but it won't work in the future. The current USA as compared to the past is a different animal already. Look at what Donald Trump is doing. They are no longer a civilized nation. They are bullying other nations in the US market. There's capital gains tax or there's 30% dividend tax or then uh capital gain tax doesn't apply to us Singaporeans but it applies to the Americans. There's also estate tax. So it but it applies to us Singaporeans also. There's the forex risk over the next 10 years US dollar will definitely weaken and there's the Donald Trump risk. They may further tax investors and the rumors previously was that they want to do a tax on treasury bills. UN government US government the bond interest that you receive currently is tax-free. They might implement a tax on that in the future. So the risk is that the regulation might change in the US.

[00:04:42]So don't think that China is the one there's a lot of regulatory risk. US is the one that actually has more risk. But investors don't perceive this risk because they see that the US market only goes up. If you look at the past history, investors will say that oh when the US market crashed like during the global financial crisis, the Hong Kong market also crashed. this time around will it be the same? Nobody knows. But I would say that if the US market crashes 30 to 50%, maybe the Hong Kong market will drop 20%. It won't drop as much.

[00:05:16]Like I mentioned already, the Hong Kong market doesn't have as much semiconductor exposure. So we the common saying is that master US market when it rally it rally so strong, Hong Kong market really doesn't rally as much. is because they are both very different animal. So we talk about capital markets. The way like Singapore and Hong Kong market, you notice that they don't move as much because our stock market does not have as much derivatives. It's just trading of stocks. Whereas in the US market, there's a lot of derivatives on top of the stock market. In fact, the US the derivative markets like uh futures, ETF uh not say ETFs or options and futures is much bigger than their equity the stock market. So example if you just look at a stock that like Nvidia that is trading in the US market you can actually uh purchase Nvidia using margin. You can buy a call option on Nvidia or okay even buy a triple leverage ETF whether it's on the NASDAQ or Nvidia or on Tesla. So when it is in a bull market right it rallies more than other markets because of this derivative products which is a form of leverage.

[00:06:46]leverage because example when you buy a call option on Nvidia you only instead of paying like uh $200 US for Nvidia you can only you can pay maybe just $2. So you're using 100 times leverage and your call options is only just for a few days or or or a few weeks is very shortterm in nature. the now they even have zero day contracts so in intraday so that's getting more and more ridiculous like a casino like that so when retail investors buy a call option on Nvidia who is the counterparty the counterparty is usually an institutional investor also called the market maker they just want to earn the premium that you pay for the core option on Nvidia the institutional investor will actually hash their position they will not take the stock market movement risk. So when you use $2 to buy Nvidia 100 times leverage, the institutional market maker will buy the physical shares of Nvidia.

[00:07:50]So if Nvidia goes up, then they make profits on the physical shares. They don't lose money to you. That's how it works. So you're actually paying paying a premium to use the leverage. And for the institutional investors, their borrowing cost is almost zero because they they they actually either they own the shares in their portfolio or they borrow the shares from their funds or from bro brokers at a very very small fees in in just like basis point only.

[00:08:21]Yeah. So their borrowing cost is very low and that's how the market maker make money. So by using when the option markets grows bigger and bigger, there's actually more leverage in the system.

[00:08:33]And now over the past few years, there's been an explosion on triple leverage ETFs. So you can buy a triple leverage NASDAQ ETF, you can buy a triple leverage semiconductor ETF. I want to give you the names of this ETF. Why?

[00:08:50]Because now I feel that you all FOMO.

[00:08:54]The worst thing, the biggest mistake that you can make now is to give up on your Singapore market and Hong Kong market. Sell because it's not moving.

[00:09:03]Take the money and go and buy into this semiconductor ETF or semiconductor stocks. You you're buying at the high, you will most likely or you will almost surely lose money. So, we are actually what I'm noticing is that retail investors are moving from disappointment into FOMO. the fear of missing out because they feel so disappointed with their portfolio. They see that everyone else is showing off, bragging about their gains. They're going to rotate their position into semiconductor stocks and they'll be buying at the high and then the crash will come really. Yeah.

[00:09:41]Then they will lose money. It happens all the time. I've seen it so many times. Do not FOMO, do not chase, do not touch the semiconductor stocks. And this is my advice for you all. Do not touch all these semiconductor stocks. They they may continue to go higher, nobody knows. But when the sellown comes, a lot of retail investors will get burnt.

[00:10:06]Those that use leverage, those that purchase the call options, they will lose 100%. As simple as that. So one thing that we call in technical analysis is called market breath. Market breath in technical terms is you look at the broadbased index like the S&P 500.

[00:10:26]So what we are seeing is that the market breath is very narrow is very narrow like the S&P 500 there are maybe 10 different sector but only one sector is rallying which is the semiconductor. The other nice sectors like example financials, healthcare, uh manufacturing, uh industrials, they're actually not moving. It's only semiconductor that is moving. So the market breath is very narrow and this narrow segment of semiconductor is heavily leveraged. So that is the thing. So I as an experienced investor, I see this picture clearly. But many retail investors they don't understand. They think that this is a bull market because the index is rallying. Do not be fooled. Do not just look at the index. You must dig deeper.

[00:11:16]And that's why I feel that my sharing gives you insights and is useful. So now you see the picture. This is not a bull market. What is a bull market? I've been through many bull and bear cycle. A boom market is like during the global financial crisis 08 crash already. 09 they did the trouble asset relief program T A R P T trouble asset relief program they print hundreds of billions of dollars they build up the banks they flood the system with liquidity economy recovers interest rate is cut to zero so when the government do quantitative is easing which is stimulus they print money the system has a lot of cash then a rising tide lifts all boat So that is a broadbased recovery. So that one is a real bull market because confidence rebound there's a flood of money hot money chasing after assets investing businesses feel confident they expand business they create jobs. So that is a real recovery. This is not a real recovery. This is not a real bull market. Are the governments doing quantitative easing? Are they cutting rates to zero? Are businesses so optimistic? They are expanding businesses and creating a lot of new jobs. THE ANSWER IS NO. NO. IN FACT, there are no new jobs created. The folks in their 20s and 30s, they are struggling to get jobs. Most businesses are actually freezing hiring. Example, the financial sector, they're trying to implement AI, they freeze hiring. The tech sector is actually continuing to lay off workers. Yeah. So maybe the one that is creating jobs. Example like in Singapore where is creating jobs maybe the traditional like you see a lot of condo a lot of projects a lot of construction so the more of the traditional industries that that are more uh labor intensive that they are still hiring for example you see so many new condo project they have to hire more engineers more more workers am I right so it depends on on the sector but the main sector like finance and tech as a whole they actually not not giving more jobs so this is not a real bull market since you know that this is not a real boo market. Is this really sustainable?

[00:13:34]Is this really sustainable? The answer is no. This bull market that you see now is actually not sustainable. That's why I call market breath. If it's a widebased market breath where most industries are rallying that is a real bull market because this is a narrow market breath where it's mainly the semiconductor stocks carrying the NASDAQ carrying the Taiwan and the Korean index. This rally is not sustainable. So this can suddenly turn anytime like I mentioned there's so many uncertainty.

[00:14:11]private credit could explode. Then uh energy crisis that there's the first order and second order impact. First order impact is the airlines and transport industries. Then further because that of the higher transport cost, the cost of your materials will increase because you need to ship it to Singapore. So example like construction companies, manufacturing, they might feel the second order, the second wave of impact. But but it's starting to show already. So we see how it plays out.

[00:14:41]Then uh thirdly is the AI uh AI bubble uh because the magnificent 7 they are spending 700 billion this year they already committed already that's why you can see all the semiconductor they have record order they have record profits but this profits the market is pricing if as if the profits will double again uh next year but it cannot you cannot keep doubling every year eventually I will think that they will feel that they have built enough they might slow down in their spending to build data center or they might even spend less to build the data center and once the market feels that it's going to slow down ahead then they will sell down and they will take profits and when the turn comes it will be very sharp because there's a deleveraging process so the leverage built up through the options and the leverage ETFs in in the US market is a double-edged sword. When when it rallies, it rallies very strongly. When it crash, it will crash even more sharply. So, uh you have been warned.

[00:15:51]So, the biggest worry is that master.

[00:15:54]Okay. Now, I explain already why why the US market rallies stronger than the Singapore and Hong Kong market. So, when it drops, right, I do not believe that the Singapore and Hong Kong market will drop as much. So Singapore and Hong Kong market is actually more defensive because we don't have all this uh fancy product. We are so we are we we go to the Hong Kong market we don't play options. We don't play uh triple leverage ETF. I think they they have such products but it is not the main products that retail investors go for when they're in the Singapore and in the Hong Kong market. Like in Singapore retail investor that want leverage they will use like what DLC daily leverage uh certification or what that means there are like five times seven times leverage you can u buy these products but it's more for like intraday trading it's for short-term traders most retail investors they don't really touch this product then in the US market there's private credit private equity so a lot of this database built up they are funded by private credit and the private equity they were heavily vested in AI stocks and uh software stocks. So if you look at the entire private uh credit market uh which is now exploding is about uh one one trillion 1 trillion uh market cap. So of this 1 trillion market cap uh based on I saw the experts explaining it more than 50% is from the US. Then of the other half the majority is from western countries like Europe. Then only a very small portion less than 10% is from Asia. Asia including Hong Kong, uh Taiwan, China, Singapore. So I would say that by investing in the Singapore and China market, we are not really exposed to private equity, private credit. So private equity, private credit, what is the risk? I mentioned already deleveraging. So you see like blue hour being sold down if piper credit because it is so illquid for them to exit the position. So when they face redemption they need to give the money back to the uh investors. They cannot sell their private credit uh uh to convert it into cash because it's illquid. they will sell their other assets and their other assets means US blue companies, US bonds. Uh so that is the chain effect to meet the redemption they sell their other assets which are US dollar based because this private credit is US dollar denominated. So they will sell their other US assets. So when the private credit really explodes because the quarterly redemption will only is starting to snowball already. So the third and fourth quarter you will see even more redemptions. When there's so much redemption they cannot meet all the redemption requests they sell their other US assets. This might even this might al example they have a semiconductor portfolio. Then they will sell the semiconductor portfolio take the cash to meet the redemption for their private credit. Am I right? So this might be the so-called the butterfly effect or or or the the chain effect. So I don't know because I'm not expert enough to know in depth like w private equity, private credit, uh the energy markets, the derivative markets or the the semiconductor market. I'm not an expert in this but today I'm able to summarize this in this video is because over the past week I've been doing a lot of research. So you ask me master how I do my research. So it's many channels like from websites I mostly read from Bloomberg and South China Morning Post but this two is a paid subscription. You uh Bloomberg I pay uh $380 uh per year. South China Morning Post I think it's $180 per year. So unless you are a full-time investor then you will pay for this or or you are content creator like me. If you're normal retail investors, I don't think you will get value from this because you're not going to spend two three hours per day doing research. So for me, I I spend two three hours per day doing research. So I feel that it's worth for me paying the subscription. It is my occupation which which I enjoy. For a normal retail investors, maybe every day you spend 8 or 10 hours at work already. When you go home, you just want like 10 20 minutes a quick update on the stock market. That's where my video summarize and give you the update on what's happening on the market. So I don't think it's worth it for you all to subscribe to this. But if you want additional information, what I feel good is that now in YouTube there's a boom in a lot of different podcasts.

[00:20:50]So I listen to podcast. So sometime when they invite the guest to the podcast, the guest is a special specialist or expert. It could be an expert like a a hash fun manager. It could be an analyst. Then this analyst is in the semiconductor industry or this analyst specialize in the tech industry. So for me I listen to the one hour podcast I absorb the insights by the expert. So I see many different expert opinion whether it's reading articles or listening to podcast then I form my own opinion. When I research further on individual companies like I cover the earnings results of real estate investment trust reads I go through their presentation slides like 30 40 page presentation that I go through it then when I share with you all right I don't share the 30 40 slides I pick out maybe five to 10 slides the most important one so I only highlight to you all the most important points that's why my video I keep it short and concise like just a 5 to 10 minute earnings update just the highlights can already yeah so that that's how I do my research then for individual companies that have a strong interest like uh BYD high tilo and recently I covered quiso net east so I really read there are few hundpage annual report most of your retail investors you will not be able to do that because you are not a trained accountant for me I'm I I I've uh did my business and management studies degree so I've taken uh classes on economics, accounting, business management. That's why I can interpret the annual report. I can read the cash flow statement, the profit and loss statement, the balance sheet. So for me, most of the time you read is just to check whether there are rate flags or not. When there are red flags, I highlight to you all. Example BYD, what is the net cash position?

[00:22:46]What's the gearing? What is the financing leverage? All this. Yeah. But most of the time I read nothing that I won't update you all. So it is very tedious to read an annual report. I would say that 99% of retail investors they are unable to read an annual report. You really have to be a so-called uh this in work in this industry or then you have to be an industry professional then you can have the ability to read an annual report having the uh certain level of accounting literacy. Yeah. So uh you you shouldn't try to follow me to do the same thing. read annual report or uh subscribe to Boomberg. I think you you won't enjoy it and you are wasting money and wasting time or you should just find good content on YouTube. There's there's a lot of very good content on YouTube.

[00:23:36]So of course I will say that my my channel I try to deliver value for you all. I give you all information that is useful of my one is not copy and paste one. Example you go and watch example Kelvin learns investing his one is all copy and paste one. You go and watch Mr. Lou, it's all the AI stuff. They they won't tell you what I I share with you today. What is market breath? Why this boom market is not a real bull market is basically is a very narrow or market breath is just on the semiconductor industry. And why you see the bull market rallying in the Taiwan index, the South Korea index, the NASDAQ index is a illusion. is all carried by one sector and is heavily leveraged. It's not a sustainable broadbased bull market. And I'm the only one that gives you this insight. It's not because uh I'm smart.

[00:24:30]I'm actually not smart. I'm just a not.

[00:24:32]But I dare to say that I'm hardworking.

[00:24:34]I read through many articles. I watch many podcasts. Every day I spend at least two to three hours reading and I spend another two to three hours watching YouTube. And I watch YouTube is not watch anime or those meow meow videos. You know, maybe I want a bit like weekend like today later I will watch a bit of anime and relax. But Monday to Friday my working days, right?

[00:24:58]I watch is like the news update, uh documentaries, uh podcast, interviewing experts. The these are the content that I watch to actually educate myself. So for me inside here you can see I have a lot of knowledge. My one is not copy and paste.

[00:25:14]I can see like I share that is this the side. I have no notes. I have no script.

[00:25:20]Everything I share with you is from my own thinking, my own interpretation.

[00:25:26]It's not I copy anyone. All my sharing is original. Just that I I look at many expert opinion. Then some will have a booase, some will have a bad case, some will explain it differently. I find the one that I feel resonates with me and is the most logical and then I share with you all then because the experts sometime they explain it is so in depth example like options do you know what is a gamma squeeze I tell you gamma squeeze you you you don't know what is it really am I right but for me I understand it but I interpret you are then I would say in very layman terms what does this mean yeah then or how the market works so I don't use notice that I don't use those technical words one. I never use a technical word because I try to make the complicated things as simple as possible to explain to you all. So Steve Jobs says that simplicity uh is the ultimate complexity. So I forget what's the quote really suddenly I forget it is it if you really understand the subject right then although it's complicated you should be able to explain it in very layman terms.

[00:26:36]That goes to show that you really understand the subject. A lot of YouTubers they don't really understand the subject. They just copy and paste.

[00:26:44]They themselves they are confused and you watch their content. You are even more confused. If I explain and you understand it, it means that I really understand the topic. If I don't understand it and I try to explain, I am confused. You are even more confused.

[00:26:58]Yeah. So overall, uh that that is my sharing for you all. I will continue to share with you all and every week I will update you all and let you understand what's happening in the market where where is the danger where where to avoid where to stay vested yeah so my entire thesis hasn't changed do not for do not chase a lot of retail investors will form and they will get burned on these semiconductor stocks so I warn you already then if you want dividends remain vested in real estate investment trust you want growth remain invested in the hansen tech index I think these two pockets are very safe everything else I will just avoid because we don't know what is the real impact of the coming energy crisis and the second order effects will the higher energy cost lead to rising prices in raw materials will it affect construction cost will it affect manufacturing cost I have no idea I'm not expert enough so I'll just avoid those that I feel that is uncertain.

[00:28:05]Yeah. So, so uh then uh like I say a lot of you all might lose your conviction in the Hong Kong market in the Singapore market. For me, I remain my conviction remain strong because I have the understanding that real estate investment trust we continue to collect the rents. We are not impacted. I continue to remain convinced that Hansen Tech long-term will perform well because I'm buying a basket of highquality blue chip tech companies. Short-term they are not performing but long-term as their revenues and earnings rise eventually the market will reflect this. Short-term the market is a voting machine.

[00:28:43]Long-term the market is a weighing machine. We as a value investor we buy great companies where they are undervalued. Long-term value investing works. But value investing is something that is very contrarian that is very different from the her. If you go to forums, you look at the her, they don't care about valuations. They are now foring to buy because they think it will go higher. Don't make that mistake.

[00:29:09]Yeah. So I cannot give you my conviction. You have to own self study and you think about what I say makes sense or not. If you think what I say makes sense, then your conviction will come naturally and you have the ability to hold on to your real estate investment trust. Continue collecting 5 to 6% without fear. You will hold on to your Chinese tech companies because you know that long-term 10 year 20 year China will do well. The reming will appreciate and uh China will continue to grow. China will eventually become the largest economy and US is a declining nation. They will become number two.

[00:29:47]They have a unsustainable debt level. So this is my conviction. I cannot give you my conviction. Most people will tell you otherwise. Most people will tell you that China is uninvestable. US is number one and will continue to be number one over the next 10 20 years. So so that is their view. My view is different from them. I have a contraent view. So if you come here and give me comments say that oh master you are stupid I disagree with you everyone says that US is number one you see US market continues to perform Hong Kong market continues to underperform Hong Kong market sucks if that's your thinking then please leave my community my sharing will not be useful for you if you such you have such a stubborn such a narrowminded view and you have a her mentality that US will forever be number one my sharing unfortunately definitely will not be useful for you. Please leave my community. Thank you. Thank you. But if you have an open mind to see that, oh, China is rising. Maybe what others say about China is not true. A lot of people say that China will collapse. China is uninvestable. China is a communist uh country. You shouldn't touch it. Maybe they are wrong. Maybe the majority is wrong. You take a look at at Hong Kong and China, you see opportunity. You you traveled to China before you see that China is advanced. China is so digital.

[00:31:11]China they treat their people fairly.

[00:31:13]Although it's a communist country, it's actually very similar to Singapore.

[00:31:18]They're actually pro business. But when business get out of hand, they punish the businesses. So that is a very different system as compared to the west like US, UK and Europe. If you see the difference and you accept the difference and you understand China, then you invest in China. Then you hold for a few years, you see whether your investment works out or not. If you don't understand China, you are not convinced about China, then you don't touch the Hong Kong market. Stick to the Singapore market that you feel comfortable. But whatever it is, I would tell you avoid the US market, avoid the US dollar. I think investors that are heavily in the US market, they will not make any returns o over the next 10 years. Once the bubble pop, their portfolio will be in the red. They will suffer huge losses in the US market. That's my view. I may be wrong. So, not financial advice. So, that's all my sharing. Take care all.

[00:32:14]Bye-bye.