The dominance of drones on modern battlefields has fundamentally changed military strategy, forcing traditional large-scale armored breakthroughs to become obsolete; Russia's inability to achieve significant territorial gains despite massive military resources demonstrates how technological superiority in drone warfare can effectively bog down even the world's largest military, as the conflict in Ukraine shows that without corresponding technological and tactical adaptations, even the most powerful military forces can become effectively immobilized.
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Putin's army is effectively bogged down in Ukraine; mass destruction, piles of burnt equipmentAdded:
Despite the Kremlin's claims of inevitable victory in the war with Ukraine, the Russian army is effectively bogged down at the front. As the New York Times reports, Russian troops are still unable to solve the key problem of modern warfare. How to carry out large-scale breakthroughs in the face of the total dominance of drones on the battlefield? The publication noted that although Russian dictator Vladimir Putin tried to convince US President Donald Trump that his troops were marching toward inevitable victory, the situation on the battlefield suggests otherwise.
After successes at the end of last year, the Russian army has virtually ground to a halt and in some areas has even lost territory. According to the NYT, if Russia continues its current pace of advancement, it will take more than three decades to completely capture the Donbas, which is precisely what the Kremlin has stated as a condition for ending the war. At the same time, the publication suggests that this slowdown may be temporary due to seasonal factors. Russian troops typically become more active in the summer thanks to better weather and denser vegetation, which provides better cover from drones.
Ukrainian officials recently warned that Russian troops are preparing for new offensives and have increased their activity along the entire front line. As the article notes, Russia is entering this phase with a number of serious challenges. Specifically, this year Russian forces lost access to the Starlink satellite internet network, which was used to coordinate drones.
Furthermore, restrictions on Telegram, imposed by the Kremlin as part of its internet control, have created difficulties for communication between military units.
The main unresolved issue for it, however, is how to carry out major breakthroughs on a drone-infested battlefield, the publication noted.
After all, the days when soldiers would break through the front lines en masse and armored vehicles are largely a thing of the past. Now the standoff between Kyiv and Moscow is increasingly focused on developing better drones and more effective defenses against them. In certain areas of the front, Ukraine has gained an advantage in recent months thanks to rapid advances in technology, production, and tactics. But Russia is actively trying to catch up with Ukraine by creating a larger unmanned force after launching an elite drone unit called Rubicon, the publication writes.
It is noted that drones have forced Russian troops to change their strategy.
They are now attempting to gradually infiltrate the territory in small groups of soldiers, often on foot. This has led to the expansion of the gray zone, an area where troops from both sides are present and control over which remains uncertain. The best they can do is use infiltration tactics and attack support networks well behind the front lines, targeting Ukrainian drone teams and logistical support. But that doesn't lead to immediate success. They seem stuck, said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She suggested that Russia, lacking the ability to seize large territories, may consider gradual advancement the best strategy. This, she argued, allows it to avoid large-scale operations that could fail and threaten its prospects for victory. Russia's slowdown in advancement this year has been confirmed by three organizations monitoring the situation on the front: the Institute for the Study of War, Blackbird Group, and Deep State. Two of these organizations reported that there were months when Russia lost more territory than it gained, although an ever-expanding gray zone leads to different interpretations of what constitutes captured territory. Russia's meager gains over the past 3 months, according to Blackbird statistics, represent the worst battlefield performance in Ukraine since 2023.
These extremely limited gains cost Russia enormous losses, journalists note. According to estimates by Russian publications Mediazona and Meduza, by the end of last year, approximately 352,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war.
This is more than six times the number of American soldiers killed in the Vietnam War. As casualties mount, Russia also missed its recruitment targets in the first months of the year, raising questions about how long the Kremlin can sustain the war without another unpopular draft, according to US and European officials. For much of last year, small group tactics were producing results for Russia, albeit slowly.
According to Blackbird, by 2025, the Russian army had captured 4,579.12 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine, an area slightly larger than the US state of Rhode Island. Russia's lack of significant success is also indicated by the fact that it has been fighting for years for Pokrovskoye and Chasiv Yar, but the front line still effectively runs through these settlements, which underscores the general stagnation on the battlefield.
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