Larry C. Johnson: Russia Rejects 28-Point Plan Peace Deal Fails - Behind America

追加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]Welcome back to the program. We are here today with Larry Johnson, a former CI analyst to discuss uh the somewhat surprising uh diplomatic offensive uh coming out of Washington. So more specifically this 28 point uh uh peace plan uh which has taken many by surprise. Uh I think u well one see that uh from Sinski and uh Europe especially as well as the hawks within the United States they've immediately turned against this calling it a capitulation and uh essentially yeah condemning it.

[00:00:42]Uh however, from your perspective, you you argue that this will it's not just an issue about being unacceptable to the Ukrainians and well, of course, the Europeans want to keep this war going, but how about Russia? Do you think Russia would accept the agreement as it stands?

[00:01:02]>> No. No. The the agreement as it stands, completely unacceptable. Russia won't accept it. However, um you know, Russia is going to approach this in a very Russian way, which is they're going to welcome the opportunity to negotiate and continue talks with Washington. And I think the language from Lar will be something along the lines in hopes of achieving a just uh solution that will serve the interests of both countries. very diplomatic language. But if you, you know, if you got uh Sergey aside, you know, drinking a beer, you go, "This is a non-starter."

[00:01:44]You know, we they don't understand. The West is still not listening to us. Now that said, when you go through the 28 different points, it shows at least somebody on the US side, it was this was not a casual uh cavalier effort. This was there was some thought given to it. there's at least some understanding of what some of the issues are and uh so it's a start it's a good starting point what uh people need to understand is that if one because still Russia has not received an actual document from the United States that is according to uh Pepe Escobar and I on Wednesday along with a fellow named Alexander Kazakov who's the co-chair of the international unity club. We had an interview with uh Maria Zakarva and uh Judge Npalitano came on to the the meeting and he asked her the critical question and she was like basically we haven't seen anything. So you know there's there's there's talks but we don't have anything substantive to to react to and that that was repeated today by the foreign by Pesco.

[00:03:06]Uh and so both the foreign ministry and the Kremlin are saying Yeah, we hear there's something out there, but we haven't seen it yet, you know. So, that's point number one. uh when you go through the document, it is clearly written from a US perspective, not taking into account what Putin and uh the foreign ministry and and the military and other political leaders have said for quite some time that, you know, look uh the Russia's got these interests. Uh Putin laid those out very clearly on June 14th, 2024.

[00:03:46]And if if nothing else, those interests not only have not changed, but Russia is now in a position that if those interests that Russia identified are not satisfied, they will expand it. They will they they're going to take Nepropetk.

[00:04:04]They're going to take Kharkiv. They'll take Sunumi, probably Potava, and then they'll give the people in those regions the chance to vote on whether or not they want to join the Russian Republic.

[00:04:16]But uh you know, one of one of the the craziest things in this uh document, let me let me just pull it up here. I had it. Uh was item number um uh let's see what number was it? Oh, number six.

[00:04:34]Number six says, "The size of the armed forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000 personnel."

[00:04:40]Well, look, when the special military operation started, the total size of the Ukrainian military was estimated to be 260 to 280,000 active duty. They probably had another 600,000 700,000 reser, but we're talking active duty.

[00:05:00]When Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul in March of 2022, the Russians said, "Okay, here's the peaceime cap for your active duty military personnel, 85,000."

[00:05:17]So, here's the US saying, "Oh, no. Well, 600,000 and basically seven times uh what Russia uh almost eight times what Russia was willing to live with in 2022.

[00:05:32]They're not going to agree to that. I mean, you know, so that that that's just one example of what I call Western delusional thought when it comes to this. However, it's it's a point to be discussed and Russia will come back in and say, "Well, no, this look, 600,000 completely unacceptable and we'll tell you why we think 85,000 something we could live with and that that's negotiation." So, uh, I could see what this will start is a a negotiation process between the United States and Russia that it would extend at least 6 months. I mean, the issue the issues that are raised throughout this document are are the kind of things that are not going to be settled with a meeting or two meetings or four meetings. uh they are very difficult issues that have to be resolved.

[00:06:30]uh you know again one of the one of the items deals with what territory uh Russia can keep and it said okay yeah we'll recognize that Crimea and Datki Luhans are part of Russia you know the part of your federal republic but you've got to stop in place freeze where you are in heran and Zaparisia well Russia has yet to fully recapture and take full control of those two territories. However, under the now Russian constitution, both territories, Kerasan and Zaparisia are part of Russia. So, it's nothing that Putin can't negotiate that away. No more than Donald Trump could go to have talks with uh Putin and say, "Okay, yeah, uh we'll give you we'll give you uh Alaska and Hawaii."

[00:07:25]Can't do that. you know, those are states of the United States. So, no president, no leader has the ability to sacrifice that. And again, this is one of the things that uh that uh the Trump team has refused to accept or acknowledge. Now, it's a step in the right direction. They're at least coming somewhat towards the Russian position, but the the fundamental thing is Russia's winning. They're winning on the battlefield. their their offensive operations are accelerating and expanding and Ukraine cannot keep up. So Russia's Russia is going to terminate this militarily. I think can you realistically by the time they get to anything, you know, to to have any substantive agreements out of this discussion, the military situation is going to be uh you're going to be looking at the collapse of Ukraine.

[00:08:24]I think the Ukrainians Ukrainians probably played this a little bit wrong because they went out so hard against the proposal though that is uh uh essentially rejecting every single point on on the list. Now, uh yeah, this is uh unfortunate for Ukraine then because uh Trump really wants to get some uh yeah get this uh peace deal moving and the negotiations moving especially since things are going very much the wrong way for NATO and Ukraine on the battlefield.

[00:08:56]But uh uh but Sinski's uh very strong opposition to this means that uh the US will have to impose a lot of pressure on Sinski to accept this. Do you but do you think Trump has the political support in Washington to start cutting any military supplies uh logistics or intelligence?

[00:09:22]something to well essentially force Sinski to reconsider his position. Yeah, I actually I think I think that this may actually have been the intent behind this to create create a US proposal very specific that on the surface appears to be reasonable and offers at least the possibility that Russia might accept it in order to force Ukraine's hand that when Sinsky says hell no we're not going to do that then it gives Trump to say Okay, you know, we've tried everything to, you know, come up with an agreement and the ones who are preventing it from happening, uh, are the Ukrainians, so we're done. You know, that that's one thing I heard repeatedly in Moscow from multiple sources.

[00:10:15]um that uh this this war will end once US pulls out, once the United States ends the CIA operations in Ukraine and the military support, the sharing of intelligence and the provision of weapons and ammunition, Ukraine's done. They can't sustain it. I mean, right now, the the the the math numbers tell tell the story. um the uh casualties per month according to Russian Ministry of Defense killed and wounded 40,000 a month and it's been that way for the last four or five months at least. Uh no, actually it's been that way. It's been that way through all of 2025. So right now the Russians are looking at having inflicted almost a half a million killed and wounded on the Ukrainians in just 2025.

[00:11:10]Then these very very pro- Ukrainian sites, the Atlantic Council, Institute for the Study of War, they're estimating that the number of desertions, monthly desertions in Ukraine are between 20 and 40,000.

[00:11:28]Well, put those two numbers together. At a minimum, we're talking 60,000 losses per month. At the high end, 80,000 losses per month. And then you step back and say, "Well, how many new recruits is uh Ukraine routing up every month?"

[00:11:45]About 25,000 maybe. And those 25,000 aren't being sent to a training camp where they're spending 3 to 6 months in training. Good God, they're No, they're they're so desperate. They're slapping uniforms on them, giving them guns. They don't even know how to march in formation and shoving them off to the front.

[00:12:04]This the Ukraine is in a death spiral right now in my opinion and it's not this is one that's not sustainable.

[00:12:11]people thought, "Oh, well, from 2027, sorry, this can't go on that long simply because Ukraine does not have the manpower and I don't see NATO, even though there's some mercenaries that have still sort of filtered in. Uh NATO is not going to be able to deploy forces to to keep it going because of it. If they do, if they do that, then the war will expand into Europe and European capitals and military bases will be hit and destroyed uh by Russia.

[00:12:44]>> It's u it's it's a strange thing though.

[00:12:46]The you mentioned that uh the war will end when the US ends its uh uh support or cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence services, right? But it begs a good question of what why all of this has to be pressured on Ukraine to begin with because this is uh a lot of this should be a deal between Russia and the United States. uh because well we already know as we had confirmed in in uh in the New York Times as well as the Washington Post that uh the day after the coup in 2014. This is when um the US began or the CIA and MI6 began to work with the intelligence services which they had installed a new intelligence chief in Ukraine and began to rebuild the intelligence services from scratch as a instrument uh a tool against Russia. I mean they already admitted all of this uh admitted to the extent they have deceased control over the Ukrainian government as well. So it seems and it's also confirmed that this was uh one of the key reasons why Russia decided to invade in 2022 that the US and British intelligence services had entrenched themselves so much in Ukraine. uh but um but but it's very strange that in this 28 point peace plan uh that it's referred to as a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine but after Boris Johnson Marco Rubio everyone confirmed that this is a proxy war and still the this is a key limitation and it's the same with the NATO membership and I brought this point up many times before why does Ukraine have to be forced to signing uh an agreement that it will not join NATO. They I think the Russians would trust more if this came from the United States because uh Ukraine can change its mind tomorrow and um so why why not get a deal from the United States? It's just it's very strange the way the whole diplomacy um is is is working here.

[00:14:56]Do do you know why the US is so insisting so hard on maintaining this idea well this uh oposes of being a mayor mediator we're not good listeners you know we uh the Trump administration and really the deep state those uh those that predated Trump uh in in the CIA in the Pentagon and the Defense Intelligence Agency they they've got this uh they've got this narrative about why Russia is doing what Russia is doing that is completely divorced from the reality.

[00:15:37]Um and and in fact this 28 Russia talks about root causes. The root the fundamental root cause of this conflict is the expansion of NATO to the east and surrounding uh Russia with offensive weapons. The the eegis uh so-called air defense systems that were deployed in both Romania and Poland are quite capable of carrying nuclear tipped uh missiles. And so, you know, Russia's Russia takes that as a very very serious threat. So, when you go through that 28 point document and I I posted it at sonar21.com and then did some analysis on certain of the paragraphs. Um there there's a one one one of the points is oh that uh NATO basically can deploy all of its combat aircraft will be based in Poland.

[00:16:38]Well, Russia's not going to say, "Oh, okay. That's a" No, Russia's not going to go for that. Uh, and and apart from that, other than saying there will be guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO, there's nothing to address the issue of NATO's expansion other than a promise, oh, we we we double dare dog promise that we'll never expand anymore to the east. Russia's heard that before repeatedly and they know it's it's not a you know you can't trust any promise out of the west. There's got to be some concret concrete commitment which means shutting shuttering bases and withdrawing forces. I I think that's what Russia will insist upon. So until the west comes to grips with the need with recognizing that look this entire conflict is all about Ukraine Ukraine's role with NATO has nothing to do with the Russian desire for Ukrainian territory. Uh I during my time my my recent visit in Moscow I had a chance to interview Vaselip Prov.

[00:17:45]uh ProRov uh he was a former colonel in the SBU, the sec Ukrainian security service. Uh he was actually turns out he was a Russian uh asset. Uh he started cooperating with the Russian intelligence services in 2014 and then he u defected to to Russia in 2018.

[00:18:11]And you know the I asked him extensively about the role of the CIA that it has played in in Ukraine and it it goes back you know 25 years or more that the you know CIA has been actively developing recruiting training etc um these different Ukrainians as a way to you know gain influence up to including having actually having CIA office at in in the uh in the headquarters of both GUR and the SBU.

[00:18:47]So uh the West has yet to recognize that uh NATO is the problem. That's the solve NATO then you bring it into the war.

[00:18:59]>> So where do you expect this to go from here on though? because uh it could be an opening to at least uh sit down and talk again because last time it appeared that um well Trump was making these remarks that the Ukrainians and Russians should fight it out first assuming that I'm guessing if the war began to move uh decisively in one direction or the other then there will be more willingness to make compromise.

[00:19:25]>> Yeah. But um as as we see there's not much reason left anymore. At least in Europe they're recognizing increasingly that the war is lost and you can't really turn the thing around. But nobody is prepared to look at any kind of peace. Uh if you look towards Kalas for example the well EU foreign policy chief uh uh who argues that uh well we want peace but you know peace has to first mean weakening Russia so we have to have more sanctions more weapons like we don't have to talk to Russia but they have to be weakened this is peace so it's it doesn't seem like there's any reason there I mean if I was advising the EU and you see that it's getting worse this the deal situation on the front line as thus also the political settlement would will get only worse day by day. So you you want to strike a deal today. Nonetheless, uh this isn't really happening. So um what do you think is going to happen from here on? Will will it just be Trump trying to put as much pressure on the Ukrainians and and the Europeans? because I saw um I think he also threatened to put sanctions harsh sanctions on Russia soon which would then reduce the pressure on Ukraine. So it's very confusing what's actually happening here. Yeah. If uh if European threats and rhetoric were candy and nuts, it'd be Christmas every day, you know. But the it's it's idle talk on their part because you have to step back and say okay what can they actually do?

[00:21:08]I mean what the does Europe, Germany, France, the United Kingdom in particular, do they have an intact industrial base capable of producing the the weapons that will counter what Russia is employing right now on the battlefield? Answer to that is no, they don't.

[00:21:29]Do they actually have a force structure with trained military personnel that they could deploy that could make a difference on the battlefield?

[00:21:38]The answer to that is no.

[00:21:41]So, um, and I I had a conversation. Pepe Escobar and I were um, we did this two-hour interview. First first hour was with uh uh Maria Zakarva and then the the second half was with Lieutenant General Abdi Aladino of the head of the Akmat battalion.

[00:22:08]And in and General Aludinov he said look he says the Europeans just never learn.

[00:22:15]Uh he said in 1814 he said they attacked us in 1812 and we drove them out of Russia and in 1814 we went to Paris to uh correct them. Uh he said the Germans did the same thing to us both in um in World War II in the Great Patriotic War. We went to Berlin.

[00:22:39]So if Europe continues to go down this path, we'll go wherever we need to go to put it put an end to it because we're not going to we're not going to live under this threat.

[00:22:50]We will we will we will we will address it militarily if necessary.

[00:22:55]Very matterof fact, not not belligerent, not threatening, just saying look the history is what the history is and the Europeans better learn from the history.

[00:23:06]Uh the Russians got zero interest in capturing and conquering Europe because they got they got enough terri their territory covers 11 time zones.

[00:23:17]They got more than enough territory land uh to deal with. They're not looking for more land. They don't need more land and there's nothing that Europe has that they need. Uh including champagne.

[00:23:29]Russians in Crimea, they're making their own good wines these days. So they they don't need France for that. Um I it is the kind of thing that the West antagonism is uh trying trying to compel the United States to enter the war. That's that's what they calculate is their only uh strategy they can see succeed. If the United States gets involved, then maybe they have a chance. and and and if I'm if I'm the Russians, it's not just the threat that's emanating out of Ukraine via v visa v NATO. You have to look through through the caucuses through Georgia, Western attempts to destabilize that government, Western efforts in Armenia and Aaraijan to get a foothold so they can use a turn against both Russia and Iran. uh getting these recent untreaties to the to the stands you know Kazakhstan, Turkmanistan, Tajikhstan uh uh the the the West is trying continues its effort to try to surround Russia for both weakening it and breaking it up into constituent parts that the West can readily exploit. That you know u I tell my Russian friends they better understand that that's what's going on. the United States, neither the United States or Europe have any interest whatsoever, zero, in saying to Russia, hey, you know what? Let's be friends. Let's be friends on an equal basis. There's nothing we want from you.

[00:25:08]There's nothing you want. We'll we'll it it'll be uh a positive sum game and we'll respect you. We'll respect you as a country and we'll stop trying to subvert you. That's never going to happen.

[00:25:22]that the West is they're addicted to destroying Russia like a crack addict is addicted to crack and that you know it's so that's that's why you know the there's a lot of political theater that's going on but I think the Russians pragmatically recognize right now they hold the advantage they're winning on the ground in Ukraine and there's not a thing that NATO or the United States can do to stop that another thing.

[00:25:54]>> Well, we know what um yeah, what what the Russians want. I mean, they're greatest fear is that this will uh that the war will simply be put on a temporary ceasefire and then the NATO countries will find a way of restarting it later in more favorable conditions.

[00:26:10]So this is what they seek to prevent either through a peace agreement which ensures that this won't happen which would then be very harsh or on the battlefield by ceasing the territories that it can't afford being used in as a future well launch pad against Russia.

[00:26:27]But and of course Ukrainian is also it makes sense that they have a lot to lose no matter what they do now. uh as you said the European goal is simply to get America dragged into this on u on the side against Russia which is why it's very often a good idea to try to play long that we want a peace agreement but frame it as an unconditional ceasefire or something that Russia can't accept to make sure that Trump's fury is directed and pressure is directed against Russia but u but what is it that you think the United States wants to achieve in this because uh some of the points in this uh in this agreement seemingly concessions towards Russia such as uh uh inviting Russia to return to the G8. I I can't imagine this came from Moscow because well the the G7 has become a bit of a punchline, a joke in Russia now. I I don't think if you're negotiating a piece, I I can't imagine Moscow asking this as something they want to be invited back into the G8. I mean, it's if they were invited, sure they would send Lavo or someone, but but I can't this seems like it would have been entered by the Americans. Europeans don't want the Russians there. The Russians don't seem to have much interest in returning. So, this is uh American this seems like an American input. Is this an effort to integrate Russia into the uniolar system or what is the thought process here?

[00:28:00]>> So, let me ask you this. Do you have a professional hockey league in Norway?

[00:28:06]>> Uh, yes, I think so. I'm not following sport much.

[00:28:09]>> Okay. Well, we'll use it as so. So, let's say that you've got this professional hockey league in Norway and uh but but they're really not very good and and you you're one of the you're one of the teams there, but now you've been asked to join a European hockey league that is, you know, much much bigger, much better. And now here's the deal.

[00:28:36]Hey Glenn, if you sign on to this, you can come back in and be part of this Norwegian Hockey League.

[00:28:41]And you go, why would I want to do that?

[00:28:45]I'm a member of the European League. So, here's the United States making Russia an offer. Yeah, we'll let you be part of the G8 again because right now bricks, it it has more GDP than all of the G7 nations. Uh BRICS controls more natural resources than all of the G7 nations.

[00:29:08]Yeah, come back and join a loser organization.

[00:29:11]I mean, the Russians got to laugh at that. I mean, this is it's ridiculous.

[00:29:18]But but it reflects the the delusion of the part of the Trump team. Whoever crafted this, I I guarantee you probably Scott Bessett really believe the Secretary of Treasury really believe that, oh man, Russia really wants to be part of our club because we're so powerful. were so economically potent that they they can't resist. They they feel cut out. And one of one of the other elements in that plan is well, we'll start off by uh considering gradually easing some of the sanctions.

[00:29:54]You know, Russia's position is go, no, you end all sanctions now immediately.

[00:30:00]Another element in the proposal. So, we're going to take those frozen assets that we stole from Russia, and we're going to give a hundred billion dollars of it to Ukraine to help build Ukraine.

[00:30:14]Russia's going, "You're not taking our damn money.

[00:30:18]If we spend anything on Ukraine, we're going to make that decision, not you."

[00:30:22]So, I mean, you know, there's issue after issue like this throughout these 28 points, but that's why I say it was written from the US perspective. It reflects the US understanding of the conflict or failure to understand the conflict and but Russia will sit down to talk it through. They're not going to say, you know, we've read the document, there's nothing to talk about here. No, they'll talk it through. If nothing else, discussions will go on for six months and Russia will end continue to expand its territorial control uh in in Ukraine and then the military situation for Ukraine and and NATO will be even worse than it is now.

[00:31:06]Well, my last question then is, you know, if you look into your crystal ball, uh how how will this uh diplomatic game uh play out going forward? because uh well uh as you said it's um there's a yeah fierce opposition from Sinski and the Ukrainians the some of these points also seem to >> um yeah already crossing some of the things Russia would accept as well and I think you were spot on with the money especially that is uh having legitimizing the theft not just taking the money but then handing it over to Ukraine Yeah, >> I you know even if I think sometimes we convince ourselves that Putin is a Putin as a dictator can do what he wants. I mean there's he needs to have some support from from uh from the yeah political establishment in Russia. He can't I find it very hard to see him present this deal. It's going to be very difficult for anyone to accept. And uh but um uh but again as you began saying that it opens up a space for maneuver and I think this is something Trump has become renowned for no matter what he does. If he's proposing a you know a Riviera in Gaza or whatever he does he seems to always want to go and make a big splash to give himself some room for maneuver and shake things up a bit. I'm not sure if that's what is going for here, but uh what do you see happening from here on?

[00:32:41]>> Well, um Russia is open. They'd like to have a normal relationship with with Washington. Normal in terms of cold war normal where we had diplomats in each other's capitals. We had direct flights that you could you could fly to Moscow from New York or Washington DC. Uh so you would talk you didn't agree for God's sake you know because there were there was ample areas of uh you know where the war almost went hot you know with uh with you know we were fighting Soviet expansion as we saw it in Central America and Angola and Afghanistan and the Soviets were fighting what they saw is US subversion attempts to to infiltrate and destroy Russia. So, it was that back and forth. Yet, with all that back and forth, he still talked.

[00:33:37]Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, you had an ambassador there up on 16th Street at the time, uh, just north of the White House, uh, that they could talk. We don't have that right now. And there are a lot of very simple things that Donald Trump could do that could put the diplomatic relations on a normal track.

[00:33:58]one, reestablish direct flights from the United States to Moscow, vice versa.

[00:34:03]Having done that, uh, return the property that Barack Obama seized from the Russians uh, illegally. Uh, return that to them. So, you know, and and lift this ban on Russians only being able to travel 25 miles from Washington DC. I mean, hell, that that doesn't even that barely gets you uh north of Montgomery County, Maryland or uh out into Farquark County, Virginia. Um but haven't done that. And I think there is some real frustration. I uh detect, you know, Maria Zakadva spoke to that and you know, she was genuinely frustrated by it. Like we hear the words but we're not seeing the actions.

[00:34:50]So the ball is really in Donald Trump's um camp right now to figure out uh are they going to try to normalize relations with with Russia. Now the problem is as soon as he does that there is this element in the Democrat party and within the Republican party that are accuse him of being a traitor, of selling out to the Russians, of surrendering to the Russians, of not being tough enough with, you know, on and on and on. So, it's like we this neoconservative crowd in DC is so entrenched and they've got their hooks into the think tanks, hooks into the media, hooks into the military-industrial complex that they're not about to allow normalized relations with Russia because there's too much money to be made by continuing this conflict. Because if you take away Russia as this enemy that's going to justify tripling the production of Patriot missiles, etc., then then you know who's the United States going to uh how can we justify a trillion dollar plus budget?

[00:36:03]So, uh it it's the economics of this and you know this corrupt this hundred million that that's chicken feed. Yeah, there's been a hund00 million worth of corruption on the energy sector, but the actual number of money that's been stolen from US taxpayers and diverted and some of it into the pockets of members of the US Congress, House and Senate, we're talking over 48 billion.

[00:36:33]And that's being investigated now. But but frankly because some of the people who have received that money, prominent members uh prominent Republicans and prominent Democrats, I don't see the investigation going anywhere to hold anybody accountable.

[00:36:48]Again, it's too much money that's been made. So the the United States right now has no financial incentive to seek peace with Russia.

[00:36:59]>> Yeah.

[00:37:00]Part of my optimism though is as you said at least there's some talk people used to at least during the cold war we talk to each other and I think the part of the craziness in Europe is because uh it goes back to the idea that we no longer talk to the opponent. There is no diplomacy. Uh essentially any deal the Russians put forward or the Americans such as this one the main response is organized around this. Well, basic idea is well, we can't make any concessions at all because any concession is a reward for Russian aggression. And if you reward aggression, then uh you will only incentivize further aggression. But this whole idea that it rewards aggression is premised on the idea that this was an unprovoked invasion, that it was opportunistic. But again, it is quite absurd. if if the the the the information is overwhelming that this was not unprovoked by any stretch of the imagination but but we given that we don't have any contact with Russia no diplomacy you know there's banning of the media there's this there can't be any mutual understanding so at least if this forces people to sit down and talk it could be something I mean the Europeans now are keep repeating the the the other line that Well, there can't be any deal without involving Ukraine and the Europeans. Of course, Europeans don't want to sit down and talk to the Russians. So, it's uh it's quite ridiculous, but you know, maybe this could spark a wider diplomatic effort or or more likely, of course, I think just the US and Russia will ignore the Europeans. But, uh it is um no, I I don't know. I I I see a lot of flaws here. the fact that none of the sides seem to be able to accept this deal.

[00:38:52]Obviously, that's a key flaw. But, uh, at least there's some reason for optimism again if there is uh some of the diplomatic path has been revived.

[00:39:01]Although, I must say I also think that this war will more likely be resolved on the battlefield. But again, I'm hoping that I'm wrong about >> Well, yeah, but I think you're right.

[00:39:14]You'll be proven a prophet. Uh look, there is this growing widening gulf between European leadership and the European people. The the you know the the average voter in Germany is not going to Friedrich Merittson going, "Oh man, yeah, go get those Russians." Same thing actually in Poland. Same thing in France. Th same same thing in the UK. So you've got this complete divorce from reality between people and and and policy makers. And frankly, you're starting to see that actually in the United States. Trump Trump's base is uh is shredding quickly. Uh his America first uh policy is one that is genuinely believed by a number of people and they see Trump is betraying that across the board. Betraying it not only in Ukraine, betraying it with Israel in particular, uh but betraying it as well as Venezuela. But instead of bringing about peace, he's seen as provoking war. So there there, you know, he's he's not he's not in a strong political position and and what what makes the US so disturbing in all of this is that the the moneyed elements that are profiting off of the war, they've got every incentive to keep it going. no matter that it's going to cause enormous damage to the United States. Uh you know, we're already generations behind in certain weapons categories to Russia and uh the the political winds in Russia are pushing for moving east. uh you know I I had a I I spent some quality time with Sergey Karaganov and Karaganov in his writings has been one of the biggest advocates for uh you know an a move to the east to Siberia to Asia. Uh recognizing that that's Russia's future because what what does Russia need from Europe? What does Europe have to offer?

[00:41:19]um people with blue hair and green hair and and weird sexual behavior.

[00:41:27]Uh they don't have resources to speak of. They're not making some miracle product or technology the Russia needs.

[00:41:37]It is I I mean it's really Europe is sort of like that relative you have who's an alcoholic and unemployed and wants to come live with you.

[00:41:48]you know, who needs the drama? So, uh, you know, Russia is I think they recognize their futures with China, with Iran, with Indonesia, uh, with with the global south and it it's not tied up in Europe anymore. And, you know, that that ship has sort of sailed.

[00:42:11]>> Yeah. uh published a book a decade ago with the title Russia's joy economic strategy for greater Eurasia and um actually Serge Karaganov he wrote the forward and uh uh gave me a job in his department in in Moscow which actually focuses on this well again the thesis of my book more or less was the same that all the systemic incentive suggested that Russia would from now on begin that its military would point westward as a deterrent against the west while all its economic IC um instruments of power that is uh yeah tech cooperation the supply chains transportation corridors currencies uh development banks payment system everything else will be pointing towards the east and uh I think this is the direction that they're going and uh it's uh again it's not a wishful paper it's just a argument a book just an argument in terms of where the strategic interests are of Russia and I Unfortunately, in Europe, we help to shape this uh the these incentives for Russia. But uh um no, it's uh I think a lot of mistake has been made.

[00:43:23]>> Let me interrupt you. Put put a link in your video to that book. People should buy that book. You were again, we'll change your name. You know, you'll become Glenn the Prophet.

[00:43:38]No, I mean but yeah, it was very smart that you saw that well in advance of of many observers.

[00:43:44]>> Well, uh in those days a lot of people were critical. The idea that Russia and China would cooperate because everyone thought it would clash in Central Asia.

[00:43:53]The idea that you would have a project in common initiative to dddize. It was treated as science fiction. So I think uh no, it's um uh yeah, a lot of it should have been predictable, but uh yeah, here we are. Anyways, I will leave that link. So, go >> that means you're that means you're pretty damn good at your job.

[00:44:12]>> Well, thank you. And uh yes, so go order my book and I'll leave a link in the description.

[00:44:17]>> Yeah, absolutely.

[00:44:18]>> Yeah. Well, thanks a lot, Larry. And uh yeah, have a great