Weather Impact Alert update: Tracking windy thunderstorms and how Bertha will impact Texas

[00:00:00]Good Wednesday evening, everybody. David Paul with you here in the KHOU 11 weather center on a day where we we have a heat storm going on right now. Extreme heat warnings in effect. We've had heat index values up above 115 this afternoon. That little mini heat wave is going to break tomorrow as Bertha arrives. We are forecast to have a direct hit from the low-level swirl of tropical storm Bertha tomorrow. Now, usually when we have that we have significant breezy conditions and rain impacts, sometimes even storm surge impacts. So, with this one, the impacts are going to be very minimal. They're will be felt.

[00:00:40]We'll get a 30% rain chance tomorrow, scattered showers tomorrow and Friday.

[00:00:43]There will be some breezy conditions tomorrow, but it looks like the impacts overall are going to be minimal, which is interesting in and of itself to get a direct hit from a tropical storm and have the impacts so low. And then we're going to go back to the heat Saturday, Sunday, and into next week. Let's start with the heat storm that's taking place right now. Extreme heat warning is in effect through 8:00. We've still got heat index values out there way over 100 and even up to and over 110 right now.

[00:01:12]And as you're looking at this, you may be wondering, "What is that yellow box?"

[00:01:15]So, that is That is a severe thunderstorm warning for Liberty County and Chambers County as thunderstorms have erupted in this heat and humidity.

[00:01:24]We talked about that possibility yesterday evening and indeed they've popped up. Bush Intercontinental, so high today went to 101. Normal high is 95. Record is was 101 set on this day back in the year 2000.

[00:01:39]And so, now we've tied the record of 101 for today.

[00:01:43]I want to just take a moment and back this up.

[00:01:47]So, the the camera there is jiggling a little bit.

[00:01:52]There are some strong thunderstorms coming in from the north uh that may impact a lot of us here this evening. I don't think that the wind there is because of that. I don't know why that's jiggling so much, but there will be some wind impact from these thunderstorms that are coming in right now. This is down in Galveston. Take a look at this. It's 94.

[00:02:12]The dew point is at 82. Makes it feel like 117.

[00:02:17]Down in Galveston right now. That is a hot day.

[00:02:20]Just some little waves out there and that sea surface temperature is about 90. So, there is no relief from the heat down in Galveston right now.

[00:02:28]Temperatures across the board, Bush is at 102.

[00:02:31]Hobby is at 102.

[00:02:34]Conroe is 91. That is and Huntsville is 87. That's from thunderstorms that have come through and cooled you off a little bit up there. Pearland is at 99. Sugar Land at 98. Columbus and Brenham, you're both at 100.

[00:02:47]Factor in that humidity.

[00:02:49]Feels like 110 in Brenham right now.

[00:02:51]Feels like 109 in Columbus. Bush feels like 114.

[00:02:55]Hobby 113. Galveston feels like 117.

[00:02:58]Angleton feels like 113. Palacios feels like 114. This is about as bad as it ever gets heat index wise in Houston, Galveston. So, if you worked today, you worked outside today, you survived a bad day in Houston as far as the heat and humidity. And now we've got these thunderstorms that are rumbling in.

[00:03:18]Notice how they're moving north to south. That is a reflection of the circulation around Bertha coming in from the east. Even though Bertha is in Louisiana right now, we are getting a northerly flow, a reflection of the circulation and that's bringing in these thunderstorms and they're strong. That's a mighty little thunderstorm that's just pushed through Montgomery about to clip where FM 2920 hooks into 290.

[00:03:47]And just to get a little closer look at that, there's Hempstead. Here's Waller County. So, that little mighty storm is going to zip across 290 here fairly quickly.

[00:03:56]You can see a wind gust of 30 and 40 out of that along with the lightning and thunder.

[00:04:00]This is a severe thunderstorm in Liberty County. So, Liberty getting lightning and thunder. There's 90. And so, south of 90, strong thunderstorm. That's pushing south at about 25. It's already got into Mont Belvieu. Mont Belvieu, good evening. Big thunderstorm rumbling in right now.

[00:04:16]Uh could see gusts to 70 with these. That is radar indicated. So, that is a severe thunderstorm with straight-line winds possible with that.

[00:04:25]It could do some damage and knock out some power. That's going to race across the north side of the base of Baytown.

[00:04:31]It's knocking on the door. It's coming in. And then all neighborhoods on the north side of the bay uh will see rain and thunder and gusty wind as that races in here in the next few minutes.

[00:04:43]Storms have weakened as they came out of Chambers County across the Bolivar, but still some lightning and thunder here.

[00:04:50]And now getting Galveston wet, and you'll see some lightning and thunder at Galveston as that moves through. And then if this holds together and races across the bay. Hey, heads up.

[00:04:58]If these thunderstorms up here hit Mont Belvieu, if they hold together and get over the bay uh everybody on the west side of the bay, you could see gusts to 60 and 70.

[00:05:08]If that holds together over the open water where there's no friction, you'll easily get wind gusts that could build if that stays strong. So, heads up, League City, San Leon, Dickinson, Clear Lake, NASA.

[00:05:20]Texas City, just heads up. That's going to race across the bay here and could give you some damaging wind.

[00:05:26]Modeling on this picked it up well.

[00:05:28]We're going to have them scoot through over the next couple of hours. By 8:30, pushing to the south and west.

[00:05:36]Models continue to suggest we could see a lingering shower Angleton uh down to the coast of Brazoria into Matagorda County by midnight tonight.

[00:05:44]Then that settles down. And then all this mess is Bertha, which will come in tomorrow morning and midday and give us the breezy conditions with a rain chance. We'll take a look a close look at that here in just a minute. But first, Thursday's numbers, 30% chance for rain tomorrow.

[00:06:01]Off and on, scattered showers. Maybe an isolated thunderstorm.

[00:06:06]Best chance for rain probably on the coast.

[00:06:09]We'll make the mid-90s tomorrow, so we break the heat wave with Bertha coming in tomorrow. So, that's what we're looking at for impacts tomorrow.

[00:06:18]And as you look at the satellite composite, if you were just to look at this, you might guess that Bertha is there. This is the storm.

[00:06:28]But, it's not. The center of the storm is here. It hit New Orleans earlier today.

[00:06:35]The center, because it's removed from the thunderstorms, just didn't have much wind with it. They've had a north breeze in New Orleans 20 to 25 today. That's it.

[00:06:45]And they've taken a direct hit from the center of the surface circulation. The upper-level winds have blown all the heavy convection off to the uh west-southwest.

[00:06:54]And in fact, these thunderstorms rumbling out of Liberty County, pushing into Mont Belvieu and heading toward the north side of the bay with potentially 60 to 70 mph gusts, are much stronger. We're getting much worse weather out of these thunderstorms, really not associated with the storm, than they're getting in New Orleans taking a direct hit.

[00:07:17]Fascinating.

[00:07:19]We look at the a closer view of the radar, you can clearly see, as we went into a couple hours ago, the center coming across Lake Pontchartrain New Orleans, and now the center is pushing to the southwest. It's sort of pushing southwest, and the the center is being elongated as well. It's beginning to shear even the low-level center because of the upper-level winds.

[00:07:40]So, this system is is weakening, but it's going to get back out over water overnight and have a chance to kind of hold together. That's why Hurricane Center is still suggesting that we're going to get a minimal, a bare minimal tropical storm in here tomorrow.

[00:07:57]I've put in the upper-level winds overhead here, so you can see just how the upper-level winds have pushed all the storms off to the southwest, disassociating them from the low-level center.

[00:08:10]Forecast track from the Hurricane Center brings it in here as a 40 mph, a bare minimal, but still a tropical storm.

[00:08:19]And then pushing inland and weakening as we head into Thursday night and Friday morning.

[00:08:24]With the upper-level winds the way they are, we think that it's most likely that most of the heavy rain's going to be well to the south of that center. So, even though you're looking at the low-level center coming in here, the rain and thunder may very well be Corpus Christi, Brownsville, and not up here in Houston-Galveston. So, it's a tricky forecast because of that. The yellow indicates a tropical storm watch.

[00:08:48]It means tropical storm conditions are possible as we head into tomorrow.

[00:08:55]So, if we do get some wind gusts of 40-45 on the coast, we could see a broken tree limb, some coastal erosion as we're going to get a few hours of onshore flow, increasing surf and seas, and those are the coastal impacts from this.

[00:09:11]Let's look at the wind forecast. This is 6:00 a.m. tomorrow morning.

[00:09:16]The center here, we've got this breeze coming out of the northeast at 10 to 15 inland, so a breezy morning, and then 20-25 mph winds on the coast at 6:00 a.m.

[00:09:29]Taking the lunchtime, at this point the wind becomes east and more onshore.

[00:09:34]Galveston, 40 mph winds. Angleton, 35 mph winds. Houston, 20 mph breeze.

[00:09:41]It's a breezy day inland. It's a windy day down on the coast.

[00:09:45]We will be down on the coast in the morning, by the way. Flip us on early in the morning and we'll be down there with all the coverage.

[00:09:51]Uh by Thursday afternoon, there's the circulation heading toward Matagorda Bay, maybe a little south of Matagorda Bay, the center. So, now it's more of an onshore flow.

[00:10:02]30-mph breeze in Galveston, 22-mph breeze in Houston.

[00:10:07]Uh Wharton to Bay City may see the stronger winds or the the strongest winds you're going to see going into the afternoon on Thursday.

[00:10:17]And as far as the future radar, this is interesting. This is where the rubber really meets the road. So, here's the center becoming a little bit elongated now from New Orleans to just offshore.

[00:10:29]And look at where the heavy rain is.

[00:10:30]It's here.

[00:10:33]So, we go into Thursday morning, I think this has got a pretty good handle on it. You've got an elongated center here with the upper-level winds pushing the heavy rain to the south side of the storm. So, instead of the the north side, this should be the dirty side. This should be the side that has all the bright red on it. But, it doesn't because of those upper-level winds.

[00:10:54]4:30 tomorrow afternoon, we've had a breezy day. We've had a few scattered showers with the heavy rain displaced off to the south toward Corpus.

[00:11:06]That moves across the valley of Texas and into Mexico by Friday morning.

[00:11:14]So, to put it in words, increasing surf and seas tomorrow, coastal gusts 30 to 40, maybe to 45, breezy conditions inland, but not damaging wind, and a few showers.

[00:11:28]That's what we're looking at with this landfalling tropical storm of Bertha tomorrow.

[00:11:34]And here's your 7-day. After that, we're I think scattered showers again on Friday 95, and then it's no rain and heat and humidity into the weekend, especially Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.

[00:11:48]We may have more heat advisories, could even have more extreme heat warnings as we go into Monday, Tuesday, where we're forecast to get back to 100 and 101.

[00:12:00]Okay, that's a lot. So, immediately right now, it's the heat and these thunderstorms this evening. So, stay close to the forecast, and again, we're live at 9:00 with a tropical update.

[00:12:13]We'll also update the thunderstorm activity at 9:00, and if things get bad, we'll update it earlier than that right here.

[00:12:19]Have a good evening, everybody.