WATCH THIS Before Monday's Stock Market Open

Ajouté : 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]Ladies and gentlemen, May is officially done and if you sold in May and went away, you'd be kicking yourself because the Nasdaq 100 rose 10% and S&P 500 gained 5%. % Software companies are catching a bid, semis have hit the stratosphere and the only thing stocks do is go higher. But today we have to ask the question, when is the time to sell? Because stocks don't just go up forever. At some point they must come down and when they do, how far will they fall and where are the best opportunities today looking ahead 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. That is what we're here to talk about today. We're going to answer it all, so buckle up because we've got a lot to talk about. Let's roll the [music] tape.

[00:00:41]>> Welcome everybody to the Daily Recap Show where we talk about stocks and the financial markets. My name is Chase. If you like this video, please subscribe, hit that notification bell as well as the like button and leave a comment for the algorithm. Let's get into it. This is the daily heat map of the S&P 500 and US stocks rose to record highs to cap a better month as President Trump said he would soon make a decision on a deal with Iran while Dell's earnings report sparked the latest rally in the booming AI trade. Now, because of Dell's report, AI stocks, mostly the hardware names, were very very green as you can see right here. Nvidia didn't participate, semis did broadly, but other than that, other than some of the infrastructure names and the AI related names, it was actually a pretty red day through and through. You even did see some of the mega caps were in the red, Google, Meta, [music] Amazon, Tesla, but I wouldn't pay too much attention to this because most of it was actually just like end of quarter rebalancing [clears throat] and today was also a Friday was also options expiration. So there was a lot of things going on in the market at once. Really, I think you should probably set this day aside and probably just look at the month as a whole, which was very very bullish. But going back to what we saw here on Friday. The best performing sectors were software and tech. Software up 6.25%. We'll talk about some of the software names we've been looking at for a while. Very, very strong moves through and through.

[00:02:07]Financials was up 0.6% right here in the S&P 500 gained 0.25%, but the broad market didn't quite participate. And again, that had to do with some of the dynamics we saw in the market. This tends to happen at the end of the quarter, at the end of the half year.

[00:02:20]But ultimately, what we did see today was large cap growth [music] outperforming the market. We did see uh big participation in mid caps as well.

[00:02:28]And the rest of the market, the broad market was kind of red globally. A mixed day through and through. There were winners, there were losers, but let's talk about uh why [music] we saw what But let's talk about the market moving events right here. Now, we did get economic data. Nothing to write home about. Retail inventories and wholesale inventories came roughly in line. The big thing uh was that stocks actually rose um you know, this week on the hopes of a ceasefire deal between the US And that ultimately lifted sentiment, pushed global equities higher to strong weekly and monthly gains. But there are some conflicting reports that are happening right now. Iran saying a ceasefire deal has still not been reached after uh Trump announced that there is currently a deal. But right now, we're still trying to figure out what it means. What we can definitely say is that Iran and the US are definitely in dialogue, and that is a good thing. And I think that's ultimately what the market is looking to. When we look at some of the market movers, Dell was up 32% on the day at one point up as high as 40% after Dell gave a really, really good outlook for the year ahead with AI and its server racks. I mean, this business is turning higher margin. And I mean, their previous outlook was 140 billion. They said they now the new outlook is looking to be 167 billion. 60 billion of that from AI data center servers. Really, really big uptick there. And that's why the stock was up in a very big way.

[00:03:49]Margins are also going to expand. And uh yeah, I mean, the AI trade continues to get good momentum and I was seeing software behind that. We really are teeing up for a very, very strong rally here into the end of the year. Costco reported their earnings as well. Revenue beat, earnings beat, US comp sales grew 6.8%. Membership Membership fee income was up 10%. Um but, you know, because of valuation concerns with Costco, the stock was down 4% on the day. But all in all, I thought this was actually like pretty good earnings for Costco, uh if you ask me, all given. Um but, when you look at the valuation, you probably expect a little bit more, but uh this is where we are right now. And then for everything we saw today here, guys, we've got 2,700 advances, 3,700 decliners. As we saw, outperformance in the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange. S&P 500 gaining ever so slightly. Market momentum continues to remain robust at the top of the charts.

[00:04:35]Now, guys, what a crazy time here for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 was up about 5% for the month. We're actually green here on the day along with the Nasdaq 100 and the RSP. So, all in all, we were actually green if you look at everything in aggregate. What really took it on the chin though was some of the higher-beta names, the Russell 2000, small caps, and mid caps. They didn't fare so well.

[00:04:55]International stocks were green. Crypto was red on the day, but we're looking uh you know, positive here uh on the Saturday, which is a good thing. And then looking at some of our macro forecast, volatility was down and we continued to tick down uh from the highs we saw in March, April. The 10-year yield also fell ever so slightly. Looks like we have seen an interim peak here in the 10-year yield. The dollar was flat, treasuries were flat, gold was up 1%, silver was down. Crude oil below $90 a barrel. You could see a software outperforming. Now, if we go on a monthly basis right here, this is the monthly chart of the S&P 500. You can see the S&P 500 gained 5.15% for the month. The Nasdaq 100 gained 10.49% here in the month of May. The RSP, looking at the equal-weighted S&P 500, gained a 2.65%. The Russell 2000 uh gained 4.27%. So, we definitely just saw outperformance here uh from the large-cap names. And again, that was distributed by the AI trade driven by Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft in particular. Cuz a lot we saw today and I think what's going to continue for this quarter is we're going to see a rotation. If we go ahead, look right here, the IGV was up 6.25% semiconductors was down 0.15% the DRAM names were up 1%. I think we're going to see a rotation uh between these AI themes. I think we're going to start to see the market moving into names like Microsoft. Microsoft very very good day uh here today. If we actually just look at what we've done on the day of Microsoft up 5.45% and that was coming off a day where Microsoft was up 3.47% and a lot of these software names are now near the 200-day moving average and we do know that once you get above the 200-day moving average you tend to see very very strong momentum and that's why I actually bought AppLovin earlier this week cuz I said we were going to break above the 200-day and we continue to just move as you can see right there.

[00:06:40]AppLovin had some very very strong days.

[00:06:43]Very very happy that I'm in this name.

[00:06:45]Now ServiceNow is another software name that I've been talking a lot about on this channel and I've been really really championing saying that I think the stock looks really really cheap right here up 14% today not even near the 200-day moving average and I think this stock has a lot of room to run. Is it pricey up here? No, I wouldn't say so.

[00:07:02]Is it pricier than what it was down here? Yes, it is. Um not a cheap stock.

[00:07:06]Not an expensive stock, sorry, at these levels right here but definitely uh significantly more expensive at these lows right here but even after these earnings we're now higher the the earnings uh dropped that we saw and this was actually a great dip buying opportunity. Another stock we've been looking at a lot on this channel is Reddit. Now Reddit had a very very good week right here up 4% on Friday, up 8% on Thursday, up 6% there on Wednesday.

[00:07:30]Absolutely crazy after putting in a bottom. We've been saying we were in the buy zone right here following this massive massive trend line and that's exactly what we got. And again, like ServiceNow we're nearing the 200-day moving average and once we get to this 200-day moving average right here, guys, and we break above the algo start to kick in, institutions start to buy, and it's just more flows lead to more flows.

[00:07:49]And I think we are going to see a rotation from some of these other names, from stuff like uh MU. Now, I'm not going to say this is going to fall apart. I'm just saying we're going to see a bit of a rotation out of these like high-flying names, stuff like MU, stuff like Sandisk, stuff like Western Digital, stuff like Kioxia, right? We're going to see a little bit of a rotation out of these names into the software names. So, I definitely think it is worth having exposure to the software theme because I think that's where we are going next. Now, if you are looking at some of the mega caps, what do I want to own right now? I think you definitely still want to own Nvidia.

[00:08:19]This is still the poster child for the AI trade, but I think ultimately you probably want to own a bit of the software names. And if you want the best of both worlds, one of them is Microsoft. Not expensive. Not expensive at these levels right here because as these stocks at a lot of these software names, as they've been in like 40, 30, and in some cases even a 50% drawdown, right? You go ahead, measure this move right here. Microsoft is in a 35% drawdown. Revenues continue to increase on a forward expectation level. You know, we're looking at high teens growth here for Microsoft. If you look at something like ServiceNow, you're looking at like low 20% growth. Uh and this is sales growth, top-line growth, right? That the market is expecting. And when you have a massive drawdown like that, and you have, you know, like earnings continue to compound. If you go ahead and look at something like Microsoft, right? You could see right here that revenue is going to continue to compound at a very, very even clip.

[00:09:06]You could see in 2025, $279 billion in annual uh revenue. Uh and then 2026, we're looking at 329, then 384, then 454, then $500 billion in 2029 in revenue for Microsoft. So, this company continues uh revenue continues to just compound, and this is where you get that valuation discrepancy and why a lot of software names really, really good at these lows right here, and why a lot of them continue to look good. You have not missed a rally. Stuff like Reddit, stuff like ServiceNow still look very, very cheap. They scream very, very cheap, and they're still growing 20, 30, 40, 50, and in and Reddit's case, 70% on a year-over-year basis. Absolutely insane. And I think they're going to go significantly higher. And again, we probably are going to see a rotation out of these high-flying hardware names, right? But after the earnings we got from Dell, that rotation might mean that we actually just see a little bit of like consolidation here at the top end.

[00:09:58]I don't think we're going to fall apart.

[00:10:00]I don't think we're going to fill this gap. I think Dell is definitely going to go significantly higher, but I think what we're going to see over the next few months is something like this. A lot of these hardware names, the software names are going to rip, and then into the end of the year, everything is going to go higher, and we're going to see the S&P 500 close to an 8,200 level. My price target at the start of the year for the S&P 500 was like 7650, right? We're we're pretty much nearly there. So, we might need to revise that up, but I do think any dips we do get in this market, you want to be buyers of those dips. Looking at crypto, that dip is right here. I think you want to enter Bitcoin right here. I do want to size up in Bitcoin. Keep your position small in Ethereum. Ethereum's not doing much of anything. I think you just want to hold leader, and that is Bitcoin. I think it's going to outperform. Looking at gold, I like gold here. I like silver here. Again, keep these 1 to 2% positions in your portfolio. The majority of your portfolio should be cash for a major drawdown or just equity, stuff like the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, stuff like IGV, DRAM, semiconductors. All of these ETFs, that's what the majority of your portfolio should be right now, because that's where the money is flowing into, and we want to be on the right side of the trade. And guys, this is the AAII sentiment survey. And guys, the S&P 500 clocked an all-time high on a daily basis, a monthly basis, and a weekly basis just this last Friday. And look at where bearish sentiment is. 41.9%. Now, we did decrease from last week in bearish sentiment. Bullish sentiment, sorry, did increase as well, but there's still a lot of skepticism in the market.

[00:11:25]And I think a lot of individuals are looking at what we've done in May and say, "Hey, we we are due for a consolidation at the index level." And that would be true. When you actually look at June seasonality, we tend to see a very, very strong rally into the start of the month. We then tend to see slightly downward consolidation, capitulation towards the end of the month where we actually go red and then we see slight positive returns here in the month of June. And it does look like we normally find a bottom here in June towards the later part of the month. So, you know, we could be looking at that.

[00:11:54]The market could be saying we've run a lot. Maybe we need to be taking some profits, some gains. But when you look at long term, the market looks really, really good. When you look at earnings expectations, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 estimate for the S&P 500 to 8,000 as forward operating earnings estimates continue to get revised higher. As noted previously, the forward earnings shift is a function of AI and infrastructure-related growth. The rest of the S&P 500, not so much, but you have to go where the money is and that's exactly where we are investing. Looking at the macro, we continue to see very positive stuff here from Q2 GDP. It's holding up in that four and even approaching the 5% range. When we look at oil, 3 months into the war right here, the crude oil future curve remains inverted, although settle prices are still closer to their peak levels than what they were before the conflict started. At the same time, spot oil prices, the actual physical price of oil that reflects real barrels in the systems, continue to show a clear positive rate of change that goes a long way in explaining why markets have mostly shrugged off the recent headlines. Now, looking at data for the rest of this week, the big ones are going to be the JOLTS jobs opening. We get the ISM manufacturing PMIs on Monday, services PMIs on Wednesday and then on Friday we get NFP and the unemployment rate right there, guys.

[00:13:04]Now, looking at uh earnings names for this week, uh we get HP here after the close uh on Monday, okay? Then after the close here on Tuesday, we get Palo Alto, that's a big one, along with Ulta Beauty. We also get Dollar General and Victoria's Secret on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we get uh MiniMed, Medtronic, uh and Macy's. We also get Broadcom, CrowdStrike, [music] okay? So, those uh uh some of the big names here on Wednesday. So, Tuesday we have some big names, Wednesday we have some big names, Thursday, uh, we have Rubrik. A lot of cybersecurity names reporting. Rubrik's a cybersecurity name. CrowdStrike, right? When we look at Palo Alto as well right there. Absolutely insane to actually see that. So, you know, the creme de la creme of the cyber names are all reporting here after the close. And then on Friday there isn't much of anything, guys. But look, if you've made it up until here, thank you so much for watching. If you like this video, please subscribe. Hit the notification bell as well as the like button. Leave a comment for the algorithm. Cheers.