SpaceX Megaconstellation Project May Endanger the Ozone Layer

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]Hello wonderful person. This is Anton and today we're going to be discussing something that kind of sounds like a cynical science fiction story or basically another episode of Black Mirror except that in this case this is not science fiction and is happening in real life and more importantly right above our heads in the upper atmosphere.

[00:00:21]But before we discuss the main topic, as you might have heard already, SpaceX, the company that has completely revolutionized how we get to space, is reportedly preparing for an IPO, initial public offering, and extremely likely, sometimes super soon in mid 2026, with analysts suggesting the evolution of approximately $2 trillion, which would basically make this the largest IPO in human history. But because this is not a finance channel, I'm not really going to be discussing the IPO or what it even means. Mostly because there is a science story here after all. Because in this case, this massive influx of capital isn't just about making Elon Musk just a little bit richer. It's actually intended to fund a project that could change the planet's atmosphere forever.

[00:01:09]And that's because here the plan is to launch up to 1 million satellites to create orbital data centers and to expand the current Starlink even more.

[00:01:19]And while having highspeed internet pretty much everywhere, including your flight sounds incredible, or the idea of having these data centers in space, creating artificial intelligence without cluttering the planet also sounds kind of good. Today we're actually going to discuss several studies that have now confirmed something I've discussed last year and something that was just a little bit scary because it turns out that what comes up must come down after all. And when it does, it does not just disappear. It sort of pollutes the upper atmosphere in a way we really don't want it to be polluted with some serious implications for the ozone layer. All right, so let's discuss some of these new studies and new discoveries in a bit more detail. But first, let's briefly discuss the idea of these mega constellations. Because in this case, it's not just SpaceX. It's actually several companies, including companies from China, that are now making these big plans without really considering potential consequences. And that's because, I guess, we're entering the era of mega constellations. And that's despite the fact that for many decades, the maximum number of active satellites in space was always numbered in hundreds. But today, especially in the last 5 years, it's basically over 14,000 with Starlink accounting for more than half of all operational satellites in orbit. But by design, these are not permanent satellites and they only stay in the low Earth orbit for approximately 5 years. And since the first Starling satellite was launched in May of 2019, it was actually only in 2024 and 2025 that both scientists and amateur astronomers started to notice something unusual. And actually, spaceweather.com created this beautiful image to illustrate this. This is now known as the Great Starlink re-entry event.

[00:03:05]Starting in 2024, there's actually been a huge upsurge of re-entering satellites from those first satellites launched in 2019 that have now been retired. And so, ever since then, ever since that particular date, this number has actually been going up. And while there are several websites tracking re-entries in real time, and as you can see, pretty much every single day, quite a lot of satellites are basically Starlink. But on average, as of May of 2026, anywhere from one to five Starling satellites have now been burning up in the Earth's atmosphere. And well, as you can imagine, at some point, especially in the next 5 years, thousands of them will do the same. And so, excluding other companies like Amazon and those other Chinese companies here, SpaceX alone has already filed paperwork for at least 30,000 more satellites to go up in the next few years. And on top of this 1 million satellite to act as a distributed computer in the sky or basically a kind of an AI data network.

[00:04:05]And this is where we have this one major issue. A problem that might become a serious concern in the next few decades.

[00:04:13]As these satellites burn up in the atmosphere, they don't just vanish. All of this metal that they're made out of has to go somewhere. And while most of the time it turns from a solid piece of machinery into a cloud of extremely tiny metallic vapors and aerosol particles, vapor and particles that stays in the upper atmosphere for possibly up to 10 years. And it's really only because of recent studies from 2023 and 2024 that scientists finally started to realize there might be a serious problem here.

[00:04:44]Here we're essentially conducting a [clears throat] giant uncontrolled chemical experiment on our own atmosphere. And well, one of the first studies on this was in September of 2023. Here, a study led by Dan Murphy and his team at Noah actually flew a specialized aircraft into the stratosphere where they discovered that 10% of all sulfuric acid particles in the atmosphere already contained a lot of metals from spacecraft. with the prediction being that as these magic constellations grow this could rise to 50% over time with the biggest concern in this case being aluminium oxide and by the way most Starling satellites are approximately 60% aluminium and that's because when they burn up they do create nanop particles of aluminium oxide which then acts as a catalyst for uh drum roll ozone depletion. So once again, we have something that potentially threatens the ozone layer once again. Now, we've actually discussed this in a lot of details in the video in the description that was published last year, but in a nutshell, it was discovered that these particles speed up chemical reactions quite dramatically by helping chlorine atoms destroy ozen molecules over time.

[00:05:54]And those scientists have worked really hard to ban CFCs back in the 80s because they were discovered to also do the same. Now we might be accidentally creating a new problem that unlike CFCs might be even more difficult to solve because a lot of those satellites are already up there. But the unnerving part in this case is this somewhat unusual delay. And that's because these particles are released extremely high up in the atmosphere. And it would actually take them about 20 to maybe 30 years to slowly drift down to the level where the ozen layer actually sits. Which essentially implies that satellites burning up right now will not have their full impact until sometimes in 2040s or 20 years from today. And because millions of satellites are now planned for launch by the time they're finished, it might be already too late to stop the reaction. But once again, we discussed this last year. Now we have a major confirmation from another study. This is actually the most recent study from 2026 and this was the measurement of lithium plumes from the uncontrolled re-entry of Falcon 9 rockets. Okay, so not really related to satellites but still related to massive numbers of launches that SpaceX and other companies are planning.

[00:07:07]And so in this case there was a discovered Falcon 9 rocket that reentered the atmosphere over Europe.

[00:07:13]And because it was tracked quite actively, researchers in Germany decided to track it with additional systems. And so they actually used a high-tech laser system referred to as lighter that detected a sudden massive spike of lithium at an altitude of 96 km or 60 mi. In this case, it was approximately 10 times the natural background level.

[00:07:33]And while having measured this by using atmospheric models, they confirmed that all of this came from this very specific SpaceX rocket. But why does this matter?

[00:07:44]Well, lithium is not something that naturally exists in the high amounts in the upper atmosphere. So things like meteors, for example, usually bring in things like iron and magnesium. But our satellites and of course rocket leftovers, various rocket leftovers, are full of various exotic materials, including aluminium alloys, and various metals that can in theory once again affect the ozone layer. And so even a single Falcon 9 upper stage contains approximately 30 kg of lithium, which though might not sound like a lot, is actually equivalent to hundreds of years of natural lithium influx. And that's because planet and that's because Earth usually only receives 80 g per day. Here we're talking about 30 kg or approximately 66 lb. And that of course introduces a completely new problem nobody actually considered before up until these recent studies. All of this pollution coming from these re-entries is now potentially a major hazard for the next few decades. And because of that SpaceX IPO, there's actually an extremely high chance it will only get worse, especially if that million satellites ends up being a reality. But at the same time, it's not all doom and gloom. Because there might be some solutions, even though they're a little bit more quirky. And that's because science and engineering is always about identifying problems and finding solutions. And well, here the first interesting discovery is basically in regards to tracking these re-entries in order to study them more and to actually discover how dangerous they are. And at least one intriguing study discovered that seismic sensors, so the sensors responsible for tracking earthquakes, can actually also detect solar booms from re-entering space junk such as these relatively large satellites. And in theory, this allows us to precisely see where and how satellites are breaking up, which can then help scientists to better model where this pollution is going and what sort of chemicals are being created in a process. But a much more hands-on solution might have come from a very unusual source in Japan and from actually the least likely source, a Japanese forestry company or technically the logging and processing company engaged [clears throat] in construction of houses made out of wooden materials.

[00:10:03]And well, here back in 2024, they launched what's known as Lignosat, a kind of a proof of concept, but basically this was a wooden satellite.

[00:10:11]And though at first this was just some kind of a stunt to promote their company, it might have accidentally provided us with a possible solution.

[00:10:19]Wood burns up completely into water vapor and carbon dioxide. It leaves no metallic nanoparticles. And so in theory, if those companies launching mega constellations were to actually make their satellites out of wood, it might potentially solve a lot of issues.

[00:10:35]And based on this particular launch, we know that this seems to work. But more importantly, there's now a kind of a push for, I guess, the Space Montreal protocol, or basically some kind of an international agreement in order to regulate what satellites are made out of and what they end up adding to the atmosphere upon their re-entry. Because even though we're not really considering any of this yet right now, it has a very high chance of becoming a major issue by sometimes in 2040s. And so this new space age or the age of mega constellations is dramatically increasing the mass of humanmade material re-entering the upper atmosphere. And just so that we're clear here, it's no longer about climate change or having all sorts of space junk in space. Those are completely separate issues that are not really relevant here. Here we're talking about a completely new issue that we might have serious trouble solving if these mega constellations end up growing in size dramatically and eventually end up dramatically reducing the ozone layer on the planet. But this upcoming SpaceX IPO tells us one thing. The expansion into space is only going to accelerate and these millions of satellites are almost certainly coming. So, you know, get your SPF creams ready and stuff because it's not just going to be about sunburn. No oen wear equals no life. And so, the conclusion here is that if we are going to be building these mega constellations and have this massive infrastructure in orbit, we kind of need to make sure that we're not destroying the very thing that [clears throat] keeps us alive right here on the ground. Anyway, we'll talk more about this once there are some additional studies, but for now, you can find all of the links in the description. Thank you for watching.

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