Everything You Need to Know about Silver (and Gold) in June

本站添加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:00]In this video, I'm going to tell you everything you need to know about silver and gold as we enter June. So stay tuned. I'm Jordan Roy, a chartered market technician and master of financial technical analysis. Thank you so much for joining me. Hope you had a great Memorial Day earlier this week.

[00:00:17]Now we're at the start of the unofficial summer. And the reality for gold and silver is we're coming towards the end of an intermediate term correction. So, I'm going to discuss that more in this video. Some of you mention, "Oh, you never talk about fundamentals. Who cares about charts? It's fundamentals that move the market." And yes, that's right.

[00:00:38]But the but technicals lead fundamentals. But nevertheless, I'm going to talk about fundamentals in this video. And so, what I'm looking at here is the 30-year yield. And here is a chart of the 30-year yield. Here, here is gold. And here is the yield curve. So, this is the spread between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield. Now, with respect to gold's fundamentals and silver, because silver is a leverage play on gold, they are driven by they are driven by real interest rates and specifically negative or falling real interest rates. Now, an other big part of that is the yield curve as we can see here. So, if the yield curve is steepening or rising like this, that's bullish for gold. When it's falling like that, that's bearish for gold. So, delving into it a bit more. What do we need to see for this correction to end and for gold and silver to begin that next leg higher and really move? I'm not talking about grinding higher, but move higher in an impulsive fashion. Well, you need to see this baby rise or steepen again. And that means the 10-year is rising faster than the 2-year. Or the other scenario is the Fed cuts rates and the Fed follows the 2-year. And in that scenario, the Fed cuts rates and the 2-year plunges much faster than the 10-year falls. Okay? And normally the 2-year rolls over and that signals to the Fed to cut rates. But where we are here and now, at least in recent weeks and months, the problem has been both yields are rising. So if we came to a point where long-term bond yields continued to rise, but then short-term yields kind of stopped, that would mean steepening, and that would mean gold and silver moving higher.

[00:02:17]So that's your fundamental 101. Now let's get into the technicals. And so folks, quite simply, it's the same picture as it's been the last few months, except we are coming to the end of an intermediate term correction. I'll get to the correction analog charts in a second. But remember, there's two functions to a correction. There's price and then there's time. So these corrections could continue for another month or two, but that doesn't change the fact that the lows could already be in. So, the evidence that we're seeing is that these lows are probably in.

[00:02:51]We're not going to see the metals come back down and make new lows. Okay?

[00:02:58]Now, at the same time, that doesn't mean that we're about to blast off like that.

[00:03:02]Okay? I really hope we do. Okay? That'd be good for me and my subscribers, but I don't see it that way. So that's the nuance take here is that the price bottom is in, but we might have a little bit more time to go with respect to gold and silver solidifying these support levels and then moving higher towards resistance.

[00:03:28]If we get gold going up here and testing this level, that would be a good sign.

[00:03:32]And at the same time for silver, let's see if silver can take out 81 again.

[00:03:36]Okay, if it can take out 81, rally up to 90, I mean, that's a 20% move from where we are. So, first things first, let's just see if it can take out 81. Now, the other thing is these lows are still in, but gold and silver could still test the 200 day moving averages. Gold did a couple days ago. That's a bullish bounce there with respect to silver. Look at the 200 day that's coming up like this.

[00:03:56]So, silver could test the 200 day at some point. So that's the technical reality is that the lows are in for gold and silver, but I don't think they're quite ready to blast off just yet. Now, let me delve more into silver. As I've been saying, I think that silver is in an intermediate term correction, not a cyclical peak. And we can see silver down here. Here's the gold silver ratio.

[00:04:18]And so you look at these two examples from 2004 2006 where we kind of had many blowoff tops. This is a gold silver ratio. So when silver is outperforming gold, this baby comes down. And so we can see here what happened during these intermediate term corrections. You had the blowoff tops in silver. Then the quick outperformance of gold.

[00:04:37]But then after this immediate rebound, that was the peak in the ratios and they came back down. Same thing here. Peak up here and then you can see it came back down.

[00:04:47]And so this action here is not dissimilar from those. And so this is a 25-year chart here. We can see what's happening to silver. Had this accelerated blowoff move to the upside, sharp correction, and now it's stabilizing. And look at the 200 day moving average. Okay, that's at 66. Now silver's at 75. This thing is rising.

[00:05:07]So, at some point, silver is going to test a moving average. Maybe that's what's needed before you start to begin that impulsive move higher where it moves like that. Okay. Now, as far as timing, let's look at the silver correction analog chart here. As far as timing, if you look at those intermediate term corrections, this is the area where they started to begin those impulsive legs higher or at least stronger recoveries or at least a stronger move back up to the previous high. So where is this? This comes out to the end of June. Okay, so that's only about a month from now.

[00:05:42]And if you look at some of the others here, we can see 1974, but this here is 2008 and then this red one here is 2011.

[00:05:57]So I think the odds favor where we are here and now. The odds favor something like that a lot more so than kind of like this. But the good news is in a month or two, we're going to have a much better idea of this correction and what's going on.

[00:06:12]Now, speaking of corrections and analoges, let's get to the gold correction analog here. Now, just to refresh your memory, or if you're new, we've plotted the current gold correction here in black. It's the current scale. And then we plotted two other ones, 1973 and 2006. Why did we do that? Well, gold in its history has had three major breakouts. So, after these three major breakouts, we are looking at the first significant post breakout correction. Okay? So that's why all three are on the scale.

[00:06:45]And the other two bottomed actually right here and then right here. This was at 3950 by the way, the 73 correction.

[00:06:53]And this bottom in 2006 on this scale comes down to about 4250 or so. In terms of time, the bottom was really close. We can see the average right here.

[00:07:04]Now, gold in the last two days has had a nice rebound. Does that mean it's going to blast off like that? I don't see it that way. I think it's more likely that gold needs this time. It needs another month before it's going to be in position for a sustained rebound in the beginning of a potentially impulsive upside leg.

[00:07:23]But nevertheless, gold has corrected quite a bit. I mean, from the intraday peak down to the intraday low here, that was already 27%. I mean, at this low right here, that's basically a 21 or 22% correction. So, gold has already done a lot of the damage and there might be a little bit more, but either way, this is probably a good buying opportunity in some companies and some stocks. Now, last week I talked about sentiment. I wish I could have included this chart, but this is an excellent chart here.

[00:07:50]We're looking at the gold ETF, and we're just looking at the three-month flows in and out. So, when you see this here, this means positive flow. So, this means lots of money is going into the gold ETF. When you see this, this means there's lots of selling. money is moving out of the ETFs and each data point is based on three months. And so what do we see here and now? What does this mean? Well, lots of money has come out of the GLD, the gold ETF. Okay? And so this is a very good sign because this means there's already been so much selling. So I know other people have said, "Oh, well, gold could go down to 3,900 and go to 3,000. There could be a crash." But look at how much money has already sold. So this is the point about these sentiment indicators including the ones I mentioned last week. People, the big gold sellers have already sold gold. Okay? So this is also a very good sign. It doesn't preclude or prevent gold from falling a little bit more or consolidating for another month.

[00:08:49]It just tells us we're not about to see gold dump here below 3,900 or 4,000. And a big reason why we've seen a rally in the last couple days is gold in real terms just got super oversold. Okay, now this leg down here not good. Okay, but it's formed a bullish hammer. So this is a bullish reversal candle where you see these types of candles at bottoms and this tells us we're going to see a snapback and that means we're going to start to see some money moving out of the NASDAQ S&P and back into gold and precious metals. So, that looks good as we head into June. Okay. Now, big picture, what I'm really waiting for is when we see this beautiful base rally back to resistance and then make a huge breakout. This breakout is going to be what takes gold to 7, 8, maybe $9,000 an ounce in the next two or three years.

[00:09:46]Okay? And so, let me just remind you of a chart that I showed you last week.

[00:09:50]This is my best fit analog chart. So this blue line right here is on the scale of the current breakout move in gold which began February of 2024. So over two years ago now we compared the 1972 breakout 75% of that with 25% of the 2005 breakout. So we combined that data and then we gave it a 6 and 12 month lag. So it starts right here. 6 and 1/2 month lag. Look at how close these lines are up to this point.

[00:10:24]Okay.

[00:10:26]Now, this doesn't necessarily mean gold's about to go like that because I don't think there's enough selling pressure to bring it down here to 4,000 or 3,900. Maybe you could see it at 41 or 4200.

[00:10:41]But either way, it makes a very compelling case that gold could reach $8,000 an ounce by is that September of next year.

[00:10:52]So people keep this chart in mind. Even if we see this correction continue for another month or a little bit longer, this is the upside potential, okay? If this market move and this breakout just follows the other ones in history. Okay?

[00:11:06]And one thing about these analog charts, people, you have to understand, we are comparing market points and data that's very, very similar. We're not just pulling a bunch of random years out of our, you know, what, okay? We're looking at the market now and comparing it to where are the best fits historically.

[00:11:24]And so, in this case, we made that comparison and then we adjusted it to find the best fit. And boy, this is a really good fit. So, I'm excited to see what happens over the next two or three months here. Now plowing ahead, let's move on and talk about the stocks a little bit. And so I just want to talk about miners and remind you of where miners are right now with respect to the broader market. Okay, this chart shows all the money in the gold miner ETFs divided by all the money in all ETFs.

[00:11:57]And this is where we are now like 0.35%.

[00:12:01]Okay, this is even below this point here and this point here.

[00:12:05]and way below the secular peak in 2011.

[00:12:11]So, there's some of you who are worried about a big crash and think that miners are going to go down 70% again. This is not happening, people. That's a whole another video and I'll get to that at another point.

[00:12:21]But there's not that much money in miners, okay? We did see some come in during this leg here. But this is nowhere near where it was at the secular peak or 2010 or even after that explosion after COVID and this peak here after the 2016 move.

[00:12:40]So there's just not enough money in this sector where you're going to see some massive 60% sell-off. By the way, they've already corrected 30 or 35%.

[00:12:49]Okay? So people are worried about a crash. We've already had a big correction. Okay? It's already happened.

[00:12:56]And just one more sentiment data point.

[00:12:57]These charts look at the fund flows in all the gold in GDX and GDXJ here. Here are the fund flows in SIL and SILJ. And this is where we are during this correction. Okay, there's only been one week where we saw good fund flows into the gold miners. And with respect to the silver stocks, there's only one week here where we had big flows into them.

[00:13:19]Okay, it's been outflows other than that the entire time. And so this correction in minors and juniors has been an excellent reset. I know it's been a little painful, but we're coming to the end of it. And I continue to be super excited about the work that we are doing at the Daily Gold Premium, our premium service.

[00:13:38]And people in this service, I write about the companies that I am personally investing in. And what I look for is a combination of quality and upside potential. So quality, we're looking for quality projects. If it's a producer, they have growth potential. If it's a developer or explorer, they have a project that's going to become a significant mine at some point. And we look at those quality factors and we marry it with upside potential. So we are looking for juniors that have 3x to 5x upside potential over the next two or three years. And that is based on current metals prices are slightly higher. So we're not relying on $200 silver or $9,000 gold to get a three or four bagger. We're looking at companies that are offering value and upside potential at current margins now. Okay?

[00:14:25]Because number one, that protects our downside if metals prices consolidate for a couple years. I don't think it'll happen, but if they do, you want to have your downside protected. Now, if you can find juniors that offer 3x or 4x upside around current metals prices, what happens if you see silver go to 100, 150, gold goes to 6,000, 7,000, then those three and four baggers, they're going to turn into five, six, and seven baggers. Those of you who have subscribed, thank you. I appreciate you and your business. And those of you who have not, if you own individual mining stocks and individual juniors especially, this is an excellent service for you. Head on over to the daily.com/premium.

[00:15:07]We provide a ton of information and analysis. I promise you will not be disappointed. Now, wrapping things up here, let's talk about the stocks. And so, here's a daily chart of GDXJ. I'm recording this before I got the updated data here for my breadth indicators.

[00:15:22]So that's one thing that I'm just wondering about is we came down here to 52%. So are we going to see another move like this at some point where this comes down to 30 20% in signals the end of the intermediate term correction. Now the la these last couple days threw me off because looking at these candles here I was thinking okay this is set up to move like this and maybe we'll carve out a bottom here in June. That is still possible. But these are really strong candles. So 119, we could see a rally up here to perhaps 127, 128, maybe even 130.

[00:16:01]So we'll see what happens. I don't think this is ready to blast off to the upside like that. Instead, I think you probably rally a little bit and maybe it then moves sideways for a little while before potentially moving up again. Okay, that's all for the video. Thank you so much for tuning in. Check out our premium service. Head on over to the daily.com/premium.

[00:16:23]If you haven't already, hit that subscribe button. We'd love to have you be a part of this channel.

[00:16:29]Hope you had a good week. Hope you have an even better weekend. I'll talk to you guys again next