How will strongest El Nino in a century impact Chicago? | The Chicago Report

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Uh, well, this year's El Niño, as I was saying a short while ago, will be the strongest in a century, according to many scientists, the biggest since the 1870s. And these climate patterns happen naturally, but they bring about a lot of conversation. So, we called in a little help about what it will mean for this summer and how it will impact Chicago and the Midwest. Professor Paul Roundy, uh, from the University of New York at Albany is joining us now with his predictions. Thank you so much for being here.

[00:00:29]Thank you for having me. You have said that this could be the strongest El Niño since the 1870s. So, what does your research show and what makes scientists believe that it could be a historic event?

[00:00:42]So, the event, um, so far is not particularly strong, um, but it's advancing in a way that only the strongest events of the past have have evolved.

[00:00:55]Um, there was a a lot of warm water that's been built up in the western Pacific. And just recently, there were some, uh, westerly winds in that area that, um, were stronger than than any that we've seen in any observed event historically.

[00:01:12]And those winds are are acting on the ocean and they're going to push that, um, warm water that was in the west Pacific toward the east. The east Pacific is normally cold. So, when all this warm water arrives in the east Pacific, the east Pacific rainfall distribution changes and that alters the whole, uh, global atmospheric circulation. So, it starts to rain in places that are normally dry. It's, uh, cool in places that are normally warm. It's, uh, um, in in, um, uh, in this, uh, coming hurricane season, for example, we would expect fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

[00:01:50]Um, the northern, um, northern summer, uh, Midwest is typically cooler than normal, although there's no guarantee that that outcome will happen.

[00:02:01]Next winter is more likely warmer than normal. The last time we had an event anywhere close to this intensity was in 2015-2016.

[00:02:11]And I recall here in Albany, New York um on Christmas Eve, my um children and I were out playing frisbee on the front yard and it was 70°.

[00:02:23]Um so uh El Niño can make for a mild winter across the upper Midwest into the Northeast. Mhm. And what kinds of weather patterns should people here be looking out for?

[00:02:39]So here um this coming summer expect a milder, not a not not as much of a hot summer as we've had historically.

[00:02:48]That aspect isn't really a guarantee.

[00:02:50]It's interesting that we can be talking all about this warm pattern in the East Pacific that actually on average tends to make it cooler here during the summer.

[00:02:59]Um but then during the winter it tends to be um milder. Um uh we get um uh ridging um for much of the summer we or much of the winter. Um so you end up with a milder winter. It doesn't mean you can't have a big snowstorm or that you can't have a big cold event at sometime during the winter, but the average of the winter is favored to be mild in the Midwest to Northeast. Mhm.

[00:03:24]And where would you say we could possibly see in in the world uh you know, extreme impacts? Um if we're looking kind of at at at this ball, what where are we going to see some things that are more extreme?

[00:03:40]So the most extreme impacts from El Niño are typically in Indonesia.

[00:03:46]Uh we call this the maritime continent area in between the the West Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

[00:03:53]These uh parts of the world tend to be dry during El Niño and they develop forest fires in places that are normally wet.

[00:04:01]These are rainforests and they they become dry and there are forest fires.

[00:04:05]The lower Amazon can also experience forest fires.

[00:04:09]India is typically drier in their monsoon um during um big El Niño events and that can result in in failed crops. Uh historically some of the major famines um of the uh 19th century were around the eight late 1870s when we had a major El Niño event and there were there was there were crop failures in India and China and Brazil.

[00:04:35]Um but as since it's a natural process the ecosystems actually have come to rely on um this redistribution of rainfall in the tropics so that um places like Indonesia the forests are reset uh by the uh by the fires and it's actually healthy for them.

[00:04:57]Um and you get rain in places that are normally dry and so the deserts can build up uh build up their aquifers.

[00:05:04]Although there are uh floods often like in Southern California, the West Coast of South America, uh Northeast Africa.

[00:05:12]Um these are places that are normally dry and El Niño tends to make them wet.

[00:05:18]You know, when we look at this video and uh it just reminds you of how quickly things can change for people anywhere in the world uh when it comes to uh natural disasters and the fact that we all should be uh more cognizant one of the research like what you're doing but then also uh just mindful, you know, especially this time of year when we really start to see more volatility.

[00:05:42]Agree. Thank you so much for your time.

[00:05:44]We appreciate it.

[00:05:45]Thanks for having me.

[00:05:46]>> Mhm.