This Week's Storms Will Bring SERIOUS Problems...

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]This week's storms are not playing around, and I need you to understand that before we get into anything else today. We are talking about serious problems. Not the kind of problems where you maybe get a little wet on your way to the car. We are talking about the kind of problems where you wake up Monday morning and the road you drive to work on every single day is underwater.

[00:00:17]The kind of problems where a line of thunderstorms rolls through at 2:00 in the morning and you wake up to half a tree sitting on your fence.

[00:00:24]The kind of problems where the ice on your windshield is not just frost, but a legitimate glaze that is going to make your morning commute an absolute nightmare. This week has multiple flavors of serious weather problems baked right into it, and we are going to break all of it down right now.

[00:00:37]So, let us get into it.

[00:00:39]Okay, so first I want to talk about the temperature spread that we are dealing with right now because it tells you everything you need to know about why this week is going to be so active. We have got record warmth trying to surge northward out of the south while at the same time a really impressive pool of cold air is sitting back there in the Rockies just waiting to come crashing down. It is like pulling back on a rubber band as far as you can possibly stretch it. At some point, you have got to let go. And this week is when we let go. That clash between the warm air pushing north and the cold air diving south is going to be the engine that drives everything we are going to talk about today. Severe weather, flooding rain, ice, and winter storms are all going to be products of that one simple atmospheric battle playing out across the middle of the country this week. So, keep that in the back of your mind as we go through all of this because it explains why we are dealing with so many different hazards all at the same time.

[00:01:33]Let me start with the ice situation because I think this is the one that is going to catch the most people off guard this week and honestly, it is the one I am most concerned about from a travel safety standpoint. We have got a classic cold air damming setup developing for the early part of the week across the Mid-Atlantic and into parts of the Ohio Valley. High pressure to the north is going to be wedging freezing cold air down the eastern side of the Appalachians, and that is going to create a really nasty environment for freezing rain to develop across a pretty significant corridor.

[00:02:02]We are looking at a slight risk on the winter storm outlook for West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, and up into Pennsylvania. And I want to be really clear about something here. I know a tenth of an inch of ice does not sound like a lot. I know some of you are sitting there rolling your eyes like, "Come on, that is nothing."

[00:02:18]But a tenth of an inch of ice on bridges and overpasses along the I-81 corridor and I-70 in Maryland is going to cause absolute chaos during the morning commute. I am talking about cars spinning out. I'm talking about multi-vehicle accidents on elevated roadways. I'm talking about your normal 25-minute drive turning into a 2-hour ordeal.

[00:02:38]Places like Frederick, Harrisonburg, and the outer suburbs of Washington D.C.

[00:02:42]need to be on high alert for Monday morning because the freezing rain is going to be arriving right smack in the middle of rush hour.

[00:02:48]It is going to be plum wild out there on those roads. The worst icing is probably going to set up along I-64 between Beckley and Lexington, between West Virginia and Virginia. Hillsville, Salem, Lynchburg, y'all need to get ready for this one.

[00:03:02]And it is not just the Mid-Atlantic, either.

[00:03:06]We have got some ice potential further west, too. Lexington, Louisville, Cincinnati, areas north of St. Louis, and even back towards Kansas City could all pick up a glaze of ice, and that is going to cause problems.

[00:03:17]On top of the ice, we are also going to be looking at some snow accumulations across Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Springfield, areas north of Kansas City, and up into the mountains of West Virginia.

[00:03:28]We are talking about a skiff maybe a couple of inches in some spots.

[00:03:32]Indianapolis in particular could see some heavier bands of snow set up that are going to add insult to injury on top of the icy travel conditions.

[00:03:39]So, just make sure you are ready for this and give yourself extra time if you have to be out driving in it.

[00:03:45]Now, let us talk about the severe weather because, oh boy, severe weather season is is to wake up in a serious way this week. and I have been hooting and hollering about this pattern flip for a while now, and people kept saying it was not going to happen.

[00:03:58]Well, here we are. It is happening.

[00:04:00]We have got a massive warm surge building across the southern half of the country, and the temperatures that are coming uh by the end of the week are going to be absolutely remarkable for this time of year.

[00:04:11]We're talking about 83° in Nashville by Friday. Cincinnati pushing 76, Kansas City at 70, Dallas at 80, Columbia, Raleigh, and Richmond all touching 80°.

[00:04:23]Chicago getting up to 61. You are all going to be out there having fun in the sun, and it is going to feel absolutely fantastic.

[00:04:31]But, here's the thing about that warmth this time of year. It comes with a price. That cold air that is piling up back there in the Rockies is not going to sit still forever. And when it comes crashing into all of that warmth and moisture that is building across the plains and the Mississippi Valley, we are going to have rain out the wazoo from Dallas all the way up to Chicago, and everywhere in between.

[00:04:53]And mixed in with all of that rain is going to be some very serious severe weather. The first real severe weather threat of the week is going to show up on Wednesday, and I want everybody in the southern plains paying close attention right now. We have got a disturbance that is going to spark thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma and north central Texas on Wednesday.

[00:05:11]Yes, this includes Tulsa. Yes, this includes Dallas and Fort Worth.

[00:05:16]We are looking at moderate instability and enough wind shear to support organized and potentially dangerous storms on Wednesday. This is going to be a pretty active severe weather day across the southern plains, and I think there is going to be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and at least a low-end tornado threat with the most organized storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

[00:05:36]This is not a day to be sleeping on if you live in that corridor.

[00:05:39]But, Wednesday is just the opening act.

[00:05:41]Friday is the main event, and I need everybody from Waco to Kansas City to be taking this seriously right now.

[00:05:47]The Storm Prediction Center has already put out a 15% probability of significant severe weather for Friday, and let me tell you something, they do not put those out willy-nilly, son. They do not dilly-dally around with those outlooks.

[00:05:59]When the Storm Prediction Center flags a 15% significant severe weather probability that far out, it means the ingredients are really coming together, and something serious is on the way.

[00:06:09]The area they are watching includes everything from Waco and Dallas up through Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Springfield, Fort Worth, and Kansas City.

[00:06:19]That is a massive area with a massive population, and every single one of those people needs to have their severe weather plan ready to go before Friday arrives. I think Friday is going to be a supercell day.

[00:06:30]We are going to have discrete supercell thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, destructive damaging winds, and yes, significant tornadoes.

[00:06:39]This is all being driven by a really impressive upper-level trough that is going to be digging into the region, and the energy behind this thing is not something to take lightly. In fact, I saw a tweet from Reed Timmer the other day where he just posted a picture of this trough on the models and said, "Good heavens."

[00:06:55]So, when experienced storm chasers are already talking about this setup nearly a week out, that tells you something. We are going to dig much deeper into Friday's setup as we get closer and the models get more consistent with the details.

[00:07:06]But, right now, the message is simple.

[00:07:08]Wednesday, you need to be weather aware across the Southern Plains. Thursday, storms continue. Friday is likely the biggest severe weather day of this entire sequence.

[00:07:18]And Saturday probably has some additional severe weather across the Ohio Valley on its back end as well.

[00:07:23]Do not be scared. Be prepared. Know what you're going to do when that tornado warning comes through for your county before Friday gets here.

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[00:09:07]Sign up for Y'allCall today so you know exactly what to do when that warning comes through. All right. Now, let me get into the flooding side of this because it is not just the severe weather and the ice that are going to be causing serious problems this week. The rain is going to be relentless across a large portion of the country, and the flooding threat is very real.

[00:09:25]We have got what is essentially going to be an atmospheric river type setup where a constant funnel of Gulf moisture is going to be getting pulled northward and just dumping over the same areas over and over again.

[00:09:35]The hotspot for flooding this week looks to be right around the Fort Smith, Arkansas area where 4 to 8 in of rain is going to be possible over the next 7 days.

[00:09:45]And there are going to be some pockets that pick up even more than that.

[00:09:48]But the flooding concern extends well beyond just Fort Smith. We are looking at serious rainfall totals from Dallas all the way up through St. Louis, Springfield in Missouri, over toward Columbus and Cincinnati, areas south of Chicago, north of Nashville, east of Topeka, and west of Lexington, Kentucky.

[00:10:05]If you live anywhere in the corridor, and especially if you live near any creek, stream, or low-lying area that has flooded before, you need to be watching the situation very carefully.

[00:10:15]Here is the thing about flooding that I want people to really hear right now.

[00:10:19]Even if you are in a drought, and some of these areas are dealing with drought conditions right now, if you get 3 or more in of rain in a short period of time, you are going to have flooding problems. The ground can only absorb so much water so fast, and when it gets saturated, everything after that just runs off. Watch those creeks and streams closely throughout the week because they can rise much faster than people expect.

[00:10:40]And please, if your road is flooded, turn around. Do not drive through it. 6 in of moving water can knock an adult off their feet, and 2 ft of moving water will carry away your vehicle. It is never worth it.

[00:10:51]The Climate Prediction Center is showing continued above-normal precipitation likely across the entire Midwest, the Southern Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and even down into the Deep South over the next 10 days.

[00:11:03]Get ready because it is about to get plum wet out there across a massive chunk of the country.

[00:11:08]And look, while all of that soaking rain is happening across the middle of the country, things are going to be getting drier and warmer out toward California and the West Coast. So, the temperature and precipitation pattern is going to be very lopsided this week with wet and stormy conditions in the central and eastern United States, and dry conditions out west.

[00:11:27]As long as we have that temperature contrast between the warm air in the east and the cold air back in the Rockies, we are going to keep seeing storms firing up in the middle. And right now, that pattern does not look like it is going anywhere anytime soon.

[00:11:39]So, this is not just a this week problem. This is an extended period of active and potentially dangerous weather that is going to keep going well beyond just the next 7 days. Bottom line for this week, ice and freezing rain across the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley to start the week with treacherous travel conditions on Monday morning. Severe weather across the southern plains on Wednesday, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

[00:12:03]A potentially significant severe weather outbreak on Friday from Waco to Kansas City with supercells, large hail, destructive winds, and significant tornadoes possible. Flooding rain from Dallas to Cincinnati throughout the entire week with 4 to 8 inches possible in the worst hit areas. And additional severe weather threats lingering into the weekend across the Ohio Valley.

[00:12:22]This week is loaded. Make sure you are ready for it. Slap a like on this video if it helped you understand what is coming. Subscribe if you have not already, and turn those notifications on so you do not miss any updates as this week unfolds. I will see you in the next one. Goodbye.