NWS Houston/Galveston: Tropical Depression Two - Monday, 7/20/2026 Update

[00:00:03]All right, good afternoon everyone. My name is Jimmy Fowler. I'm the warning coordination meteorologist here at the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston and this afternoon I'll be giving you an update on Tropical Depression 2.

[00:00:14]So, uh Tropical Depression 2 had developed yesterday in the northeast Gulf and it is expected to kind of move along the central Gulf Coast through the end of this week.

[00:00:23]Uh significant impacts to southeast Texas are not expected at this time. Uh there is uh quite a bit of forecasting uncertainty uh for the track of the storm, uh but it is expected to move into some pretty unfavorable environmental conditions, which should limit strengthening.

[00:00:40]Uh as of right now, it's looking like some outer rain bands may produce some locally heavy rainfall Thursday into Friday along the coast if they extend outward enough. Uh one thing uh that I don't want to get lost in the weeds this week is that we are looking at some pretty hot temperatures. Uh triple digit high temperatures with heat indices greater than 108° will be possible tomorrow through the end of the week.

[00:01:05]So, here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Depression 2. It is located up in the northeast Gulf and it is uh moving pretty slowly. Uh this earlier today it's picking up a movement of about about 3 mph towards the northwest, so it's kind of kind of meandering up there. Um and it is expected to kind of continue to slowly move to the northwest over the next day or so and gradually strengthen a little bit.

[00:01:30]Uh it is expected to become a tropical storm uh later today and if it does, it would be Tropical Storm Bertha.

[00:01:37]Uh as we get towards the middle part of the week, it is expected to be a more on a westward motion kind of down along the uh immediate Gulf Coast uh as it pushes westward.

[00:01:48]Uh it will be entering into a pretty unfavorable environment for strengthening. Uh not only will it have some dry air and wind shear to work with, but with it being so close to the coast, uh it's going to have to deal with some land interaction as well.

[00:02:00]Uh for us, we're looking at the potential for some tropical storm force winds arriving in our coastal waters as early as Wednesday night or Thursday, uh but we're not really anticipating any inland uh impacts from winds at this time. Uh outer rain bands may arrive along the coast Thursday into Friday, and if they do, some isolated locally heavy rainfall will be possible, uh mainly along the immediate coast.

[00:02:24]Here is what Tropical Depression 2 looks like on satellite right now. On the looping image on the left, that's infrared. Uh where so where we're seeing those brighter colors is where those thunderstorms are stronger. Uh so we did we are seeing a little bit of some stronger thunderstorms kind of uh developing near the center of the storm in the northeast Gulf this morning. So it is starting to get a little bit better organized, uh but then on the right-hand side is look at the water vapor. So where there's the greens is where there's higher moisture, and where there's those yellows and blues, that's where there's a little bit of that the drier air. Uh so it it is still dealing with uh some dry air near the center of the storm, and some pretty dry air surrounding the storm as well. So it's going to be having to kind of battle this dry air over the next day or so as it gets its act together.

[00:03:08]I mentioned it's going to be entering into a period of uh some unfavorable uh environmental conditions. Uh so this map here shows the uh the uh strengths of the highs and lows over the next few days based off of one model solution. Uh so where you see the red colors is where we have the high pressure, and where we have the bluer colors is where we have the low pressure, which would be the tropical system. Uh so on the upper left, we have it on Tuesday evening, so tomorrow evening. Uh we do have that uh tropical storm, tropical depression kind of moving along the coast, uh but we are seeing a strengthening high pressure system over the southern plains. And then as we go into Wednesday and Thursday, that high pressure over Texas gets stronger and stronger. Uh so that's going to need to really kind of be inhibiting the strengthening of this system.

[00:03:58]The if the storm is weak enough, it may kind of uh be on the underside of that high pressure and skirt a little bit closer to the coast. And if it does, that high pressure is going to really limit the strengthening or potentially dissipate it uh out of a tropical storm.

[00:04:13]Uh if it is a little bit stronger, it may stay uh kind of on the south side of that high pressure, which would force it uh down south of our area. And with the north north easterly winds blowing around that high pressure, it would kind of force the majority of the rain and winds to the south and east side of the storm away from southeast Texas.

[00:04:36]Uh these are the uh time of arrival maps from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Depression Two.

[00:04:41]Uh as you can see uh on the left-hand side is the earliest reasonable time of arrival for storm tropical storm force winds. And right now we're looking at maybe around a 5 to 10% chance over our coastal waters for tropical storm force winds uh getting as early as Wednesday evening.

[00:04:56]Uh but uh the most likely time of arrival for tropical storm force winds uh is looking to be Wednesday afternoon into uh Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

[00:05:06]The And again, the probability for tropical storm force winds inland at this time is uh quite low, less than 5%.

[00:05:17]Mentioned the excessive uh potential for excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday.

[00:05:21]Uh with the large uncertainty with the track, it does give way to a pretty large uncertainty with the rainfall. Uh but dry air and the northerly winds should keep the bulk of the rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two on the south and east side of the storm.

[00:05:36]Uh but some of those outer rain bands may begin to reach our coastal areas Thursday into Friday morning. Uh we are pretty saturated along our coast after last week's rainfall. Uh but with the expected hot temperatures this week, uh we are anticipating some drying out between today and Thursday.

[00:05:53]Uh Speaking of the heat, we are looking at hot and humid weather this week.

[00:06:00]High temperatures will be near 100° for inland areas tomorrow through Thursday.

[00:06:05]And then beginning Wednesday into Thursday with that tropical air mass heading our way, we are anticipating higher moisture and that higher moisture will lead to higher heat heat indices.

[00:06:17]So, we are looking at heat indices rising to around 106 to maybe around 110 Wednesday into Thursday.

[00:06:24]We are anticipating a heat advisory beginning for most of the area beginning as early as tomorrow and then continuing Wednesday and but potentially later into the week.

[00:06:37]So, key takeaways from today, the tropical depression two has formed and it is expected to become a tropical storm later today. And if it does, it will become tropical storm Bertha. It will move westward through the rest of this week approaching Southeast Texas Thursday into Friday, but significant impacts are not expected for Southeast Texas. Uh is a lot of dry air, wind shear, and land interaction will limit strengthening. Some locally heavy rainfall would be possible along the coast Thursday into Friday if some of the outer rain bands extend outward enough. And then tropical storm force winds are possible over the coastal waters, but again, still pretty low chances around 5 to 10%. Uh with really low chances for any wind impacts for inland areas.

[00:07:21]I will say we are still several days away from this. So, you know, things can change. So, continue to check back on the forecast for any changes. And then we are still expecting the hot and humid weather this week with heat advisories beginning possibly as early as tomorrow and extending through mid-week.

[00:07:41]Uh these shot at these slides will be shared after the call today and uh we will be doing another webinar tomorrow at the same time at noon uh to discuss any changes with the forecast.