Tracking sizzling 90s to beneficial storms Memorial Day Weekend

追加: 2026-05-21

[00:00:00]Brad, previously you've talked about how part of of meteorology and is the actual science of predicting and then the other part is the messaging and there's science behind the messaging. It's it's honestly the meteorology is like flawless. Like our forecasts are very accurate. The hardest part is communicating it. Yeah. So that's the disconnect we have. So we're really working hard on how we can communicate the forecast so people understand it. If it's right in our mind, we pat ourselves on the back cuz it's no big deal. But if it isn't useful to the folks at home, then it's not a good forecast, right? So that's the whole point is that so people understand it a little bit better. You know, people aren't great with probabilities. So sometimes it's hard >> Psychology, right? There's a lot of psychology in there. So if you use colors and other terms, it makes it a little bit easier. Uncertainty is one of those things people just don't like to deal with. But that's part of forecasting. There's always going to be uncertainty and we try to give you that level of uncertainty and sometimes we're more certain than not. And really the one thing we're very certain about right now is the heat. We're going to have tons of that early this week, but later this week the storm chances ramp up and this is good example of these probabilities. Even though you see these high probabilities of rain, doesn't mean it rains all day. Those probabilities are just the chance of seeing rain at some point during the day. Has nothing to do with duration or intensity. By the weekend, these will be scattered showers and storms that'll be sticking around this weekend. So when you see rain chances, doesn't mean it's going to rain every day all places. Just means there's a good chance you'll run into one at some point over the next couple of days.

[00:01:23]Kind of your typical late spring, early summer pattern. It's why even the heat early this week is kind of odd because there's no afternoon storms. Even in a hot, dry day in in the summer, there's going to be one or two pop-up storms. Now we talked about those severe storms in Nebraska, parts of Kansas. Very rough day today out there. Tomorrow that risk is going to be across a big chunk of the country again. That front will be weakening as it pushes east, but eventually it's going to bring us a chance of some showers. So going into the weekend, Coke 600 on Sunday, lot of folks keeping a close eye on that because that's a long race and we have scattered storms around at some point during that race, 600 mi, there's going to be a chance of some rain. So, late afternoon, early evening, right when the race starts, the impacts could be some delays. You're going to notice some changes the next couple of days. Dew points are going to start going up into the mid, maybe upper 60s, even close to 70 by part of the weekend.

[00:02:13]Now, what's going to help on Thursday give us a shower chance and even a storm chance, this front gets close. So, in the heating of the day on Wednesday night, we could see a few pop-ups, but mainly on Thursday into Thursday night.

[00:02:24]I'll show you what I'm talking about.

[00:02:25]We'll go hour by hour close-up. No storms tomorrow. Wednesday, isolated storm chance, probably in the mountains and foothills, maybe one or two south, 20% chance. But, look what happens on Thursday. Much better chance of seeing storms after 3:00 in the afternoon into the overnight hours. So, our best chances are likely going to be Thursday night. Now, look at this spread. Don't look at the specific number cuz it that's not what's going to happen exactly there, but it shows you that some areas could get very little rain.

[00:02:52]But, if you're in a a downpour, you could get 1 or 2 in of rain. Now, where these actually set up is always the tough part. It's like watching water boil. You know there's going to be bubbles, but where they form is the tough part. And that'll be the trend as we go into Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, even into the weekend. So, every afternoon evening into the weekend, we're going to have between a 40 and 50% chance of pop-up storm. So, that means out at the speedway, a 30% chance on Friday, but Saturday, Sunday, you see the pop-up storm chances, that'll be around 50% each day. So, no matter what you're doing this weekend, afternoon evening plans outdoors, got to keep an eye on the sky for a passing shower or thunderstorm. Have a a plan to go go into shelter for a while and then come back out if you can. And make sure you have the WCNC app to monitor the the weather radar as we go through the weekend. Here's a look at your Jerry Hunt Supercenter [music] 7-day forecast.

[00:03:42]Temperatures hot early on. You see the cool down going into the weekend. As we go into next week, you'll see temperatures again very toasty as we go through the week.

[00:03:51]All right, Brad. Thank you so much.