A SIGNIFICANT Weather Change Is On The Way

Added: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]A large area of the country runs the risk of severe weather today. And we're here to break it down for you. We're also going to discuss the medium to long range and how rain chances will continue to increase across areas of the south and eastern US in time. So, we'll break everything down detail. Well, we are going to go over today's severe weather threat first and then we'll cover everything else next. My name is Mitch.

[00:00:22]Good Tuesday morning. Hope you guys are doing well. Subscribe if you haven't.

[00:00:26]Like the video if you like it. And if anybody has anything that I can pray about or pray over, please put in the comments below. Let's get rocking and rolling this morning. So, let's go over the latest from the Storm Prediction Center with today's severe weather outlook. We have a huge slight risk which stretches from the Mexico, Texas border, goes right through the heart of Texas, covers areas of Louisiana, just about the entire state of Arkansas, sections of Oklahoma, western Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, northern Kentucky, goes through Missouri, I think I've already said that, uh, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, up in the lower Michigan, including Detroit, areas of PA, New York, all the way up into Vermont. So a pretty large area of the country runs a, you know, I would say an elevated risk of severe weather today. We got the marginal risk around that and the dark green. The tornado threat with today, you know, yesterday we lucked out. It was a blessing. Um, it did not unfold the way that it could have. Um, I think there was reports of a couple of tornadoes, but um, nothing nothing compared to what what could have unfolded. So, we are very fortunate there and uh prayers were definitely answered there. But with today's tornado threat, it's much lower. There is a 2% risk up here that I mean does include some higher populated areas like Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo. So, we'll watch this. And then it's it's a bit of a biodal uh setup today. We have a a small tornado risk down here deep in Texas also, but it's not a big player in today's severe weather threat. I would say the wind threat pretty much the entire slight risk area runs a risk of damaging winds. So if you live in that yellow area, you have a 15% risk of damaged winds within 25 miles in any given location. And then the hell threat is is pretty low today, but in in the in the southern part of this severe weather threat area, uh you certainly have better thermodynamics, higher surface temperatures, better moisture at the surface. So your hail threat is definitely going to be higher down here.

[00:02:28]So this yellow region that is a 15% risk of hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter or larger. And pretty much the entire yellow region also has a risk of significant size hail which is hell that could exceed 2 in in diameter or larger.

[00:02:42]Now we move to what the radar could look like today over the next uh 24 hours I would say for the southern mode of this.

[00:02:48]Then we'll take a look at the kind of the middle section. Then we'll look at the northern mode. But starting it off around you know 8:00 a.m. central time uh this morning. So about an hour or two out ahead of us, at least at the time I'm making this video. Already some action ongoing right now. There's an area of storms kind of making its way across areas of the country. As we make our way through time, we get to about midm morning, storms will begin to strengthen with a higherend thermodynamic environment, which will fuel these storms for southeastern sections of Oklahoma, northern areas of Arkansas. We kind of have leftover energy down here in Texas also. And then as we move into the, you know, early afternoon time frame, this is around 100 pm, storms are still ongoing. They're starting to strengthen. You're not really seeing any kind of discrete supercells, individual storms, more so just clustering of storms. Uh, but it's going to be a pretty rowdy late morning, early afternoon. You know, you're not going to have to wait until this evening for these storms to fire up across this area. but storming like crazy across southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, starting to move into the entire northern and western sections of Arkansas. And then as we move into say the 4pm time frame, we have to watch for some individual supercells down here.

[00:04:00]You know, down near Fort Stockton, St. Angelo, Odessa, Brownwood, Del Rio, these areas down here could start to get some big supercells capable of producing some big-time hail. And we continue to watch this complex of storms here and we kind of move until around dinner time tonight 6 7:00 or so and some storms will begin to fire in Louisiana. Storms are still ongoing in eastern Texas. Still have these clusterings of storms down here in the western sections and central areas of Texas, but more so just heavy rain embedded thunderstorm activity in Arkansas. And you know, by the time we move into later this evening, it's around 10 p.m. We'll have to see what's left over of these storms. Um there's not a big I would say west to east progression of this storm system. So once these storms sort of outrun I would say the ingredients the better ingredients they begin to lose some steam. And you can see that happen here as they you know begin to move into western areas of Tennessee and and Mississippi kind of after midnight tonight. They begin to lose some of those colors you see that indicate stronger storm activity. But more stuff against fire here later tonight in Oklahoma. We still got these clusterings of storms in Texas and we could have a big line of storms kind of making its way through uh the southeastern areas of Texas later tonight into tomorrow morning. Haven't spoke much on this area of the country in a while, but Corpus Christi, Victoria Bay City, even Houston, Galveston, you know, watch out for a big cluster of storms that you might wake up to tomorrow morning before they exit out into the Gulf here. Um but that's the southern mode, the central mode here. Um I think model guidance is is struggling a bit in this area.

[00:05:39]Could be uh something where the morning stuff sort of affects the atmosphere to really become unstable unstable later on today. But getting into about late morning, we have to watch these storms moving into the bootill Missouri. You know, we've already mentioned Arkansas.

[00:05:54]And then as we move into say 1 2:00, uh storms could be moving through southern areas of Illinois capable of producing some damaging winds and maybe some small hail. And then as we move into about 5:00 pm, we could have the refiring of these storms here in Indiana, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, um, you know, it doesn't look all that bad, but there is a level two out of five risk of severe weather in this area for a reason. So, you know, we take it till about 8:00 p.m. We still got these kind of individual cells. I wouldn't call them supercells or anything like that, but individual thunderstorms kind of clustering also across middle areas of Kentucky. Maybe some isolated stuff in middle Tennessee. We see some storms up here in Ohio and Indiana. And then as we get into tonight, you know, we'll just have to watch the leftovers of the energy pulling out of Arkansas and Missouri and Oklahoma back west and and see how it behaves as it moves into the overnight hours into western areas in Kentucky, Tennessee, maybe southern areas of Illinois, Indiana, and we're probably going to wake up to some heavy rain tomorrow morning across this area right here. So, the northern mode um start starting off around 10:00 a.m.

[00:07:04]this morning and some of this isn't Eastern time. So, back this up an hour um if you are in the Eastern time, of course. Um but as we are making our way into about 1:00 p.m. this afternoon, some storms are possible north of Detroit. And uh these storms could be I would say a bit more intense uh for areas of Canada. So, once we get kind of around Toronto, points north, I think these have a better chance of producing a quick spin up. But you see the cell firing up near Jackson, Ann Arbor if you got to watch those. And you can see just some stronger storm activity around the Detroit area. And we even see some storms firing here in Boston. Not as high of a severe weather threat here, but certainly got to watch out for some daytime heating. Uh some instability building that could definitely fuel these thunderstorms. And as we move into about 900 p.m. 8, 9, and you know, 10, watch those storms going over Lake Erie.

[00:07:54]We got some clusterings here of storms here in the Aderondex. and we just got to watch these storms. They I to be honest, they don't look very well put together across this region. Uh but, you know, we got to show it to you. So, tomorrow's severe weather threat, not going to get very detailed on this, but I will mention there's a marginal risk across some of the uh the big corridor cities here across the I95 region. And this does get into the central apps. And then we do have a marginal risk across areas of New Mexico and and Texas, just the southern high plains. So, we will watch out for maybe an upgrade to this.

[00:08:28]I I could see us getting an upgrade to a slight risk for hail across um southwestern areas of Texas. So, we'll watch out for that. But moving forward and kind of getting into our Thursday and we're just going to kind of whip our way through this at kind of a slow to medium pace here and you're just going to see a lot of blobs of green, yellow, red, and maybe some other colors in between. Even got some snow up here across the Rockies. And what what I want you to take from this and the time frame is up here is that it's going to get pretty active across areas of the south and even even the eastern US and maybe even the middle of the country kind of in the shorter term. But uh as we move forward time stamps up here, you know, we start to get more so into Thursday thunderstorm activity across the southern tier and then we start to move into Friday. I mean, thunderstorm activity, rain activity possible all the way up into the Midwest, Ohio Valley as we have a little bit of flow that's kind of yanking it north. But look, we're finally getting rain chances again across the Carolas. I think we're coming up on two weeks again without rain. So, it's just feast or famine for us here this so far this spring. Deep south getting a lot of rain storm activity.

[00:09:35]And then we start getting into Saturday, uh, Saturday afternoon, you're seeing a lot of rain, even getting pulled up into the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic. And then we get fully into Memorial Day weekend. What happens after that? Of course, everybody's has a lot of plans, things like that. You're seeing a lot of thunderstorm activity Sunday across the deep south. And it just continues to look rather active across the southern tier of the country. I mean, this is getting into the 26th, the 27th, 28th, the 29th, I mean, the 30th, all the way through the end of May, and we're getting into, you know, June at this point. It just looks like we're about to enter a a very active pattern. But when we say active, that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to get severe weather outbreaks. So, I think we're going to enter a very wet pattern. I think the jet is going to be positioned in a way where we're not going to get a lot of I would say extreme kinematic ingredients. Uh we're not going to get any high-end upper windfields that's going to kind of overlap a very moist environment. I think we're going to get a lot of marginal to slight risk days coming up.

[00:10:41]And I will mention and I should have brought this up that you know for for Thursday just a general risk of thunderstorms but for Friday there is a slight risk very small across Woodard you know Weatherford Altus Pitton very small area where they're the most confident in for severe weather. So they already have a slight risk for Friday.

[00:11:04]Um, but for now, I mean, I don't I don't think this is going to be anything too extreme or too crazy. What I will tell you is I'm going to kind of make this kind of an animation here in motion and we're going to start off, you know, today. Well, this is Yeah. Yeah. This is like actually behind us now. So, we're starting off right now pretty much.

[00:11:23]We're going to get this in motion. I want you to see how everything feels with color, which is rainfall.

[00:11:30]So, you're going to see it kind of zooming through the time frame here and you see how everything begins to fill in. And I mean, by the time we start to get into I mean, this is all the way out to about June June the 2nd. And you're going to see what you notice here is our most rainfalls across Louisiana, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, and then it kind of yanks up into the mids south areas of the Ohio Valley and kind of goes over the southeast. Now, southeast, I mean, that's still a nice a hefty signal for rainfall. I'm not saying we're not going to get a lot of rainfall. We are, but you can tell that there's something in the atmosphere that's kind of yanking the main avenue of storm systems kind of up through here, but we're going to get a lot of moist flow from the positioning of high pressure off the Atlantic.

[00:12:20]That's going to keep us pretty wet across the southeast. And I mean, this is between now and the next 15 day got 15 days. And I mean it looks very wet across the southern tier of the country and even all the way up into the Mid-Atlantic. I mean the Ohio Valley. So a very wet pattern upcoming. I mean this area in kind of white that you see here.

[00:12:39]I mean guys this is getting closer. This is like a a a 10inch ensemble mean this makes together puts together 51 members creates a mean or an average. So this is a very impressive signal for a lot of rainfall guys. So, and if you look at the flow, it kind of supports sort of this orientation of of heaviest rain right here. And as we move for forward here, you're going to see and this is 500 mibar flow mid upper levels of the atmosphere about 18,000 ft up in the air. We kind of look at this to see where our storm systems are sort of traveling, right? So, you're going to see a lot of this blue right here kind of you can see these little streamlines kind of going up this way and then going like that. And you're going to really see that become a thing as we get towards the end of this week into this weekend and really onward. It looks like flow sort of kind of rides up from the south. Kind of an active subtropical jet gets over areas of the southeast and then kind of rides over the mid-Atlantic. You kind of have a dual flow right here from the northern sections and this could sort of help to yank some of this moisture feed further north. We'll watch for that. But you can tell we we continue to have this kind of shade of blue here indicating just a consistent flow across some across some of the same similar areas of the deep south. And that tells me that we're just going to have an active pattern those same areas which is why we're seeing this right here. It makes sense. And of course I'm just going to put this in motion here with this overriding just a very moist environment. I mean we're getting to the time of the year where it's hard to get cold fronts in the south anymore. So, you know, in this little motion you see here, the the blues is due points in the 60s. The purples are due points in the 70s. So, you can tell, you know, all this flow is going to be overlapping a very moist environment. Therefore, you know, we're going to get thunderstorms.

[00:14:25]So, let's stop this and keep it going.

[00:14:27]And you know if you look at the client prediction center and their discussion this is between the 24th and the 28th indicates a wetter than average pattern across the southern tier of the country especially across Texas and surrounding states. And then we look at the 8 to 14 day outlook and it continues to be very active across the southern tier of the country. So yeah, that's a long range discussion. Uh as far as today's weather um we've already mentioned the severe weather threat. I mean, there's there's already a big line of storms right now, you know, cruising across areas of, you know, I don't know if if you go back and look at this. It's pretty crazy. You know, we mentioned this line of storms Wednesday, but there's one hitting the same area right now. I didn't even notice that until now. So, you guys could get hit by another big line of storms later on uh tomorrow morning. So, you're getting hit by one now here across the southeast coastline of Texas.

[00:15:21]Big area of energy surging across areas in the middle of the country. And we got energy surging up through the Great Lakes region and the upper Midwest. So, uh, we'll continue to move forward.

[00:15:32]Watches, warnings, and advisories. We got freeze warnings up here in the kind of the dark purple colors. Heat advisories across the Northeast getting pretty hot. And flood watches continue across Missouri and surrounding states.

[00:15:43]As far as the southeast today, not a whole lot of weather. We've already talked about all that stuff you see right here. But the southeast, I mean, we could we're probably going to get some pop-up thunderstorms and downpours across the West Coast and kind of bend of Florida. Outside of that, I'm not seeing a whole lot over the next 24 hours. That begins to change a little bit more as we move deeper into the week, but uh yeah, northeast, what do we got? Kind of already talked about the Northeast, but uh just watch out for these thunderstorms. We already had a segment for this, but I will just kind of breeze through it one more time for you. And uh we've already talked about the south central US. So here is the north central US and what we're seeing.

[00:16:22]Let's back it up a little bit. We're going to continue to deal with some showers on and off. Might be some cooler showers across the Great Lakes region, upper Midwest, and kind of some backside flow around the trough. We'll impact areas of Minnesota and the Dakotas with just some on andoff rain showers and things like that. And uh we do got some moisture across Colorado we're dealing with too. And then we move across the west and there's that moisture I mentioned. And let's uh let's pull this up real quick and see if we can Yeah, I figured it was. Yeah, some of this is snow across the Rockies. So, we got a little bit of snow dancing around across the Rockies of Colorado and uh stuff like that. So, this is actually getting into tomorrow. But uh temperatures, this is high temperatures day across the southeast. Another warm one. I tell you that the the warm the high temperatures yesterday bothered me a little bit more than I thought they were. It was um I don't think I'm ready for summer, guys. But today across the northeast mid-Atlantic, they're going for a high of 96 in Washington DC, 92 in Boston.

[00:17:27]Temperatures across the northern sections of the country, definitely colder.

[00:17:31]And then the south central US what we're looking at. And then the western US, this is what we're looking at. All right, guys. I somehow got this video, at least the weather part of it, under 20 minutes. I don't I don't know how that happened. So, let's create a time stamp. Listen, guys, I'm going to talk to you here in a second. Um, but I do got you just a Bible verse. Not much of a devotion part of it. Um, between being sick and some couple other things going on, it it's been tough to it's been tough to just be a little bit more consistent with the devotions than, you know, compared to what I I want to be, you know. So, I do want to read this though because I' i've had this that I've been wanting to share for the last few days and it's it's Micah 7 verse 8.

[00:18:20]It says, "Do not rejoice over me, my enemy. Though I have fallen, I will stand up. Though I sit in darkness, the Lord will be my light. So I think that's a powerful verse about, you know, when we get knocked down. Um, the Lord is your light. I mean, that alone should give you the strength, the faith to to get back up. And I know it's not always that easy, but um we're called for in a sense we're called for it to be that easy, but I know that, you know, we have to kind of up our faith game, right? But I mean, that's pretty much that's giving us strength that's that comes from the Lord to say to tell our enemies that, you know, you just knocked me down, but I'm going to get right back up. I'm gonna get back up because I'm a follower of Christ and that's what I'm going to do. So, I didn't have anything to read off of. Um, but did just want to show you that verse. I think that's a powerful verse about just never giving up. And I'm huge on that. But um, hey, that's all I got. And this is um, record-breaking speed with this video.

[00:19:30]Hey, asking for prayers. Um, 34 years old, had an irresponsible moment, and I've misplaced my wallet. And um to say that I'm uh not stressed out about it, I would be lying. So I don't know where it is. And uh I don't know about you guys, but once you get tap on your phone, first off, tap on your phone is a much safer way to use your credit cards. You you pretty much I'm I'm sure you don't completely zero out the chance of getting, you know, credit card fraud or anything like that, but it significantly lowers it and it makes it very easy. And I know not everybody's into that kind of technology type stuff, but it has been a game changer for me. But the downside of it is is sometimes I like to just kind of keep my wallet in my car and kind of lock it in my car and I just not bring it with me because I don't plan on really using my car because I have it all on my phone. So, I think that's uh kind of bit me in the butt a little bit.

[00:20:32]And I've misplaced my wallet. And honestly, I can't think of anything too crazy that any anywhere too crazy that I would have uh placed it. I did go to Chuck-E-Cheese in Charlotte Saturday, but I don't even remember bringing it in. Um, so I went to church. I went to church, but typically I don't bring it into my church much. And um, so I guess I say all that to say this. I just ask for prayers. I can find this. I go on vacation next week. Um it's it not trying to whine and complain to y'all.

[00:21:06]People are going through so much worse.

[00:21:07]But just asking for prayers. I can find it. Um you know, I know that's a a small thing in in the grand scheme of things, but you know, certainly having the, you know, my social security cards and that and everything. So, you know, you run the risk of, you know, freaking out about identity theft and and all that.

[00:21:25]So, you know, it's it's going to cause a a big old a big old recovery process of everything if I can't find it. So, just prayers that shows up and uh we'll we'll move on from there and and all that rigma roll. All right. So, you have a wonderful day. We'll talk again tomorrow. God bless. Stay safe out there.