This STORM Is About To Take A MAJOR TURN

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Severe weather chances are about to skyrocket as atmospheric instability once again returns to the United States.

[00:00:07]In today's video, I'll show you the shifting jetream pattern that is going to once again introduce severe weather chances for millions. Plus, when atmospheric fuel once again starts to rise as Gulf instability surges north through much of the United States. And if you stay long enough, I'll show you the latest supercell composite that should have millions on high alert by the end of this week. I'll tell you right off the bat, we have got a lot of energy flying around in the upper levels through much of the United States. But the real pieces of energy, I think, are going to start to become a little bit more of a problem by the time we go into this upcoming weekend as we're going to have a return to instability underneath all of the lift that is going on out there. Let me give you an update on kind of how this looks right now. This is uh today on this Monday. We've got a little piece of energy kind of over parts of the eastern United States. A little bit of a trough here over parts of eastern Canada up into the northeast that's actually helping to get some active weather further south. Also a little shortwave piece of energy over parts of eastern Texas creating some lift. So had a bit of a showery day here over parts of the southeast. But other than that currently uh the rest of the country is relatively quiet in the energy department. Notice though up north up into parts of Canada, another piece of thunderstorm lift on the way. This one will be our next uh upper level system that kind of creates a bit of a problem if you will by tomorrow. Check it out on Tuesday. That piece of energy diving down into parts of Minneapolis through Minnesota, Wisconsin. And remember folks, the way or the reason that this matters is anytime that that orange color is moving into an area, it's creating lift. So notice by uh 8:00 p.m.

[00:01:46]tomorrow, you don't see a lot of energy over maybe Chicago and St. Louis. But then the orange starts to move into those regions. We call that CVA or cyclonic vorticity invection. Basically, it's a fancy way of saying it's creating lift in the atmosphere. So that's why this map matters. And notice that piece of energy diving south in a big way and going to definitely create an active uh bit of storminess I think by the middle of the week tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday through parts of the Midwest into the eastern United States. Notice what's happening out west though by the end of the work week and into the weekend. Another big piece of energy kind of riding the US Canadian border that likely once again to create some lift over into the plains. and you keep it going and you get more and more of these pieces of energy that dive through the western United States and uh just keep on ramping over the central plains.

[00:02:35]So that's one of the reasons why I do see an increase in the severe weather threat over this time period. Another way that we can look at it is with our uh upper level winds. If we take a look at our upper level wind map, uh you'll notice we're going to have a lot of dluence ongoing, a lot of troughing over parts of the country. Now, granted, this is pretty far out in the time, but I think it gives you a general idea of what's going on. Anytime that you see the winds kind of pulling up out of the north, and then you're kind of getting this separation in the wind barbs that's creating a void in the atmosphere or an area of lift. Remember, I always use the swimming pool analogy. Whenever you're swimming in the water, uh, you're kind of moving it out of the way. Well, guess what? The water comes back from below.

[00:03:15]Same thing happens in the atmosphere here through fluid dynamics. So, a lot of lift on top of that cyclonic vorticity adction. Again, just a lot of fancy ways of saying that, yeah, we're going to see a a return of an active jetream here over really the middle of the month onward. It's not the only ingredient that matters, though. Is there going to be any thunderstorm fuel under that to help uh fuel these storms?

[00:03:35]Well, spoiler alert, yeah, it's on the way back. Let me show it to you really quick. Literally 10 seconds. Go ahead, like the video and subscribe if this video is helping you plan your week ahead so you're always up to date with the latest model data. All right, back to the forecast. All right. So, I showed you that upper level system here through the middle of the week. So, why do we not see a huge severe weather kind of threat with that?

[00:03:59]Well, this is why. It's the thunderstorm fuel map and it's how it's going to change. So, by the time we get to this evening, obviously, you would expect to not see a whole lot of uh severe weather out there as you do get into the overnight hours. Also, I'm just going to fix the time there so we can include the PM and AM part. Uh doing that on the fly. All right. Seeing how the sausage is made here on the GM weather channel.

[00:04:17]All right. So, we will see a little bit of severe weather tomorrow, but notice the thunderstorm fuel map. There's just not a lot of it here where we have some of that lift working through. Now, we have some numbers that could produce some stronger storms for parts of Kansas, Missouri, and up into sections of Illinois tomorrow, even down into parts of Oklahoma. But notice it's just not that much. Same thing by Wednesday, Thursday. Yeah, we'll see some storms. I don't expect an outbreak or anything. I think by Wednesday it could move into parts of the Virginiaas, maybe parts of the Carolas and the Mid-Atlantic. see some stronger storms as that upper level piece of energy works through that I just showed you. But the real severe weather chances are going to start to rise by the weekend. Here is why. Take a look at the thunderstorm map by Friday and into Saturday. Really starting to ramp back up. What's happening here is we're going to start to get high pressure off the east coast of the United States. And that is going to kind of bring this uh clockwise flow and that is going to be pumping in moisture and a heat source from the Gulf and that is going to increase the severe weather chances in in a pretty big way here over the southern plains. So that's the interesting thing about meteorology. You have one piece of uh you know active weather and not the other piece. So that's kind of what's happening the next couple days. We have the jetream pattern but not a whole lot of thunderstorm fuel. By the weekend though we start to double up. You've got the thunderstorm fuel and the jetream pattern. And notice it keeps on coming. Round after round after round of this thunderstorm fuel works into the central part of the country uh from kind of the middle of the month, the 15 or so onward. And uh you can see it just keeps on racing.

[00:05:51]Now, one question will be how far east can it get? Can it kind of shift east with it? That's something we'll we'll watch. I feel very confident that the planes are going to see active severe weather for the second half of the month. Can it get further east? Well, a little less confident on that right now as the models kind of diverge a little bit in some of their thinking. All right, let's run you through the near-term. I'll show you the small but, you know, some severe weather chance over the next couple days and then we'll break down how this will look from a future radar and from a supercell chance perspective for when things really start to ramp up by the weekend. All right, let's take a look at some of our high resolution models and we'll start here with uh the wrap and uh showing kind of what's going to happen over the next couple of days and looping this out for you. We'll start here at this evening when many of you are watching this.

[00:06:34]We've got some rain down into the south.

[00:06:36]I showed you that little piece of energy over Texas. Well, guess what? It's doing exactly what I told you. It's creating lift. So, do expect some showers and storms. And do not rule out an embedded severe storm down here towards New Orleans, southern Mississippi, and into parts of um even Alabama and all. In fact, if I show you kind of our supercell ingredients over this area today, it's not super high at all, but you can see you do have some of those ingredients over parts of Florida and even coastal sections of the southeast.

[00:07:02]Seeing some stronger storms this evening uh as we continue to look at uh those ingredients. All right, further north though, here comes our next system. And don't rule out a couple showers up in the northeast as well. Most of your rain happened earlier today. You can see we had some rain in Virginia, the Mid-Atlantic. Here comes that next system though. And uh by the time that we go into tomorrow afternoon, we've got this system working on through. Pretty strong low pressure right here over uh northern uh Wisconsin and through parts of Minnesota. Going to create some active weather. Here's your front, your cold front, and then kind of your warm front embedded in here as well, creating some showers and storms that are working on through. So, kind of the area to watch tomorrow for those showers and storms is going to be right into here from southern Michigan through Chicago, uh Illinois down into the St. Louis and the Kansas City area. Now, once again, if we kind of overlap this with our severe weather ingredients and we take a look at our supercell composite, uh you're noticing that it's not nothing.

[00:07:56]It's definitely showing up here with that system as it kind of works on into some of those regions. Uh but I really do think the biggest threat tomorrow will likely be large hail, some strong winds, and don't rule out an isolated tornado. But I don't think tomorrow is going to be the biggest severe weather day that you've seen uh up in that part of the country to say the very least.

[00:08:14]Keep it going, and those storms are going to keep working east. Check it out. by the time we go into Wednesday afternoon getting into parts of the Mid-Atlantic to see some showers and storms out this way. Uh you're going to see them in Virginia, West Virginia, up into parts of the Northeast. But uh I will remind you kind of the thing with this is our thunderstorm fuel is just still very low. If you look at the most unstable fuel kind of overlapping with this, there's just not not a lot of it.

[00:08:38]So even if we have the wind shear and the lift, if you don't have the thunderstorm fuel or that cape to back it up, it's just not going to do a whole lot here. And that's why the next couple of days, while there will be a little bit of severe weather, are going to be relatively tame. However, as I showed you, that changes by the weekend. Let's show you the exact same map, but time this out and show you the rounds of storms on the way for the second half of May. All right, now taking a look at the uh American model, the GFS. Let's show it to you. So, here we go. By Wednesday, there's that system crossing through the eastern United States. Showers, storms, but I showed you the thunderstorm fuel pretty low with that one. You keep it going though and notice we start to get much more storminess if you will over parts of the plains as that fuel is increasing by Thursday and then especially towards the weekend. Notice another round of active severe weather.

[00:09:23]And you can already tell the model is kind of throwing out the the concept of supercells here by Saturday. See how it just has these little clusters of storms up here. It's definitely a look that indicates that this could be more of a supercellular threat and even some storms further east. Check it out.

[00:09:36]Showing some over parts of the Carolas.

[00:09:38]So yeah, severe weather could even get to the east coast, but that thunderstorm fuel going to be the highest out into the plains. Let me show you the uh kind of supercell composite with this.

[00:09:48]Actually, you know what? Before I do that, let me just show you uh this. See how it's more rounds of it by Monday, and then next Tuesday, next Wednesday, next Thursday, so on and so forth. So I think you get the idea. All right. Now, let me show you the Supercell composite with this, and I think you'll get a pretty good idea of what uh what we are working with here. All right. Uh, so we'll kind of move this ahead into time and also just because I just realized that this is still not the right color map. Again, you're going to see how the sausage is made here, everybody. We're going to do this the good oldfashioned way. And let's make sure I've got it on the right. I guess maybe I didn't have it on the right one. Whatever. It's all right. Whatever. I just work here, right? That's what I always say. Okay.

[00:10:26]All right. Let's show you the supercell composite now as promised. Okay. By the weekend, starts to rise here over the planes. Notice those uh ingredients for supercells on the rise. And then on the move, notice you do get little rounds that try to make it into the east.

[00:10:40]That's what I'll be watching and keeping a close eye on. Kind of lower confidence on that. But either way, it is round after round after round of supercell ingredients through the plains from the weekend really through the end of the month, folks. I mean, just look at it.

[00:10:53]It keeps coming and coming and coming and does not stop and at times does even break loose and get there into parts of the eastern United States. All right, let's go and give you the end card for today and uh kind of update you on what exactly the main points are here in your forecast that I want you to be uh aware of. A relatively tame 3 to 5 days ahead.

[00:11:12]Yeah, we are going to see some showers and storms, but you know, on the tamer side, I think instability surges north this weekend. So, that is going to really open up the floodgates once more for active severe weather and a more favorable severe weather pattern with that for the second half of Maine as I have mentioned. All right, if you like the video, folks, please subscribe. Hit the bell for the latest notifications.

[00:11:32]Comment, let me know where you're watching from. Hype the video if you liked it. Really helps the channel and helps me keep things nice and free here through the power of YouTube. All right, y'all. Have a great rest of your day.

[00:11:41]Stay safe and come back tomorrow for a brand new update on the latest data.