HOW CLOSE ARE THE U.S. AND IRAN TO A DEAL?

Ajouté : 2026-06-01

[00:00:03]Okay, welcome back and live now. I'm Austin Westfall. A live look at the White House as we continue to track the latest on the war in the Middle East.

[00:00:12]Let's bring in Professor Alone Bursting.

[00:00:14]He hosts the Israel Palestine report alone. Um let's and it's always tricky to start these segments because there's already and there's always so many places that you can start. Um firstly, you know, let's again take a look at the White House. Scott Bessant, he was in the White House press briefing room earlier today. Um and he kind of gave the White House's viewpoint on where these negotiations are standing. I asked the Washington Examiner's Christian Day talk a little bit earlier today if he left the White House press briefing room earlier today with more questions or more answers. He said uh a little bit of both. He didn't really know where he fell on that question, but let's just ask what's on everybody's mind alone.

[00:00:59]Um, the AP and I'll just read some of the copy that's coming through the newswires. This is where things stand for now. The US and Iranian negotiators, they have reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and start negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. But multiple news outlets are saying that President Trump um still needs to sign off on that emerging deal alone. I don't know if you've read the comment section on any of the videos, posts or forums where people are reacting to this news, but some people are not happy with the multitude of headlines that say that a deal is close or it's tentative or it's being worked on. People want a deal done. So why are we in this situation? a situation where it seems like a deal has been unendingly close. Why are we not at a place where things are final?

[00:01:57]>> Thank you for having me, Austin. As always, good to see you. Um, so the question really is what is still being negotiated? And that's where some of the leaks over the last 24 hours have given us a little bit of clarity, but as you said, not as much as we'd like.

[00:02:13]Essentially, we are already a week ago, we had reports that there was going to be this memorandum of understanding between the sides that was essentially going to be a 60-day truce. It was extension of 60-day truce that would allow opening of the Straits of Hormuz and that would include the initiation of talks about a nuclear program, the nuclear the nuclear situation, nuclear deal in Iran. And then also involved the unfreezing of multitudes of Iranian assets that are frozen by US sanctions.

[00:02:46]Some reports 24 to2 billion dollar worth. And that's really crucial because this whole thing started the spiral that started in December in Iran with the protest was a result of the economic crash and Iran needs those assets unfrozen. What happened in the last 24 hours is that we have a lot of rumors about a breakthrough in the negotiations. What we have sort of learned is that neither leader of the countries, neither President Trump nor the Supreme Leader Much Bahami have agreed to this yet, but that the negotiators agreed that it was actually Steve Witkov and Muhammad Ali or possibly possibly Abbasarji who agreed to this. So that's the breakthrough that the negotiators came to the point that said, "Okay, I'm going to take this back to my leader and say we can agree to this." And that's where we are right now. Most of the rumors suggest the framework is pretty much what we reported in the past. It's a 60-day truce. Involves the opening of the Straits of Hormuz, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon also. But the big thing that may have changed is firstly there's some reports some that are suggesting that this already relates to the nuclear deal that might happen. We don't exactly know what, but previously it said it didn't relate to it at all.

[00:04:00]Now it's already supposedly mentioning it. And the second thing is about the unfreezing of Iranian assets. That's really been the sticking point. Up until now, Iran demanded that at least half of the assets, 12 billion be unfrozen immediately when this starts. The United States said absolutely not. Now there's all kinds of rumors United States is going to allow the funds to go through Qatar. I know we want to get into specifics. I could talk about some of the rumors, but that's really what seemingly is the breakthrough right now is they've worked out one of the sticking points or they're working on one of the sticking points, which is the mechanism through which Iran will have its assets unfrozen.

[00:04:33]>> So, um I've been pretty much keeping an eye on the past 48 hours, this the trading back and forth of accusations of breaking uh the ceasefire. Uh just to catch people up, the US and Iran really in the past two days they've traded accusations of of breaking the agreement. Um there were reports that um ceasefire violations were happening in Kuwait from Iran and then US forces carried out new defensive strikes against Iran after that. I'm curious, did some of the activity uh in the past 48 hours actually get picked up on your maps behind you alone? Uh what what are you seeing new back there?

[00:05:19]>> So, I will say it's difficult to see because of the amount of air strikes.

[00:05:23]You we're talking about 10,000 15,000 air strikes that happened in Iran throughout the war. So, it's very difficult to like pinpoint specific activity. But I will say that where the main bulk of activity in the last 48 hours has been has been in two areas that are really at the heart of some of the violence between the sides. One of them is in the Bander Abbas port. The Bander Abbas port is this port over here and essentially it is the most important maritime location of the Iran revolutionary guards. It is the port. If we look at it, it is the choke code hold over the straits of Hormuz. And that is where the revolutionary guards have massive amounts of these smaller boats that they're using to attack larger vessels and missile arrays and all kinds of other facilities. That is what the United States struck yesterday.

[00:06:14]Yesterday, there were air strikes, reported three to four different air strikes in the Bandera Abbas ports. And in response, Iran said that it fired missiles at US bases in Kuwait. So in a different area over here. Then today, amidst all of the progress that was made, there was also reports of a US air strike that was carried out in the areas of Bushar. So again, it's hard to identify between these different red dots which might have been the airirst strike from today or was previously before the ceasefire, but it's an area that has been attacked many times in the past and among others is because Bushar is not only a very big industrial zone of Iran and the revolutionary guards also has a nuclear facility there. So that area was struck by the United States today. This came some said in retaliation to Iran firing at US ships.

[00:07:03]Some said that the United States struck first and then Iran fired back. In truth, it doesn't matter at this point.

[00:07:08]You know, it might matter for historians to determine what exactly happened. But in terms politics goes, it really doesn't matter at this point who fires first as long as these things are contained. And that's where we are right now. We're in almost a war of attrition between the sides. You attack me, I attack you. Okay, now we can call it quits until the next time. It's really going to continue with this game. Every time one of these things is a potential for an escalation, but at this point, these are not significant strikes. These are more just each side reminding the other one, I'm still here. I am still very happy to escalate. Don't push me too much. And it's part of the carrot and stick tactic that both sides are trying to use as the negotiations are, I would say, going on or are getting stuck depending on which hour we're looking at the reports. What is the likelihood that we don't get a deal and that fullout fighting resumes again?

[00:08:06]>> So at first when we started to talk about a deal when the ceasefire was declared at the beginning of April and then we started to talk about a deal there were really different forces pushing in different directions in the Middle East. Among others, there were rumors that Qatar and Saudi Arabia were really pushing the United States to escalate again, that they're worried about the situation dying down with Iran coming out on top, having been able to close off the straits of Hormuz, showing that it can do that and all of its attacks against the Gulf countries. The Gulf countries not really retaliating.

[00:08:36]So, they were pushing for another round alongside Israel of course was pushing for another round. In turn, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, all those countries were pushing for a deescalation, as well as many elements within the United States. Over the last two weeks, I'd say virtually all the Gulf countries have all come around to saying they would like situation to spiral down. And I would estimate that the reason that they're saying that is because they recognize that even if there is another round, we're not going to see full-on deployment of US troops in Iran. We're simply unlikely to see that. were also unlikely to see enough attacks that would happen in order to destabilize the Iranian regime to the point that it would be in danger. So then cutting their losses, they'd rather just see the situation spiral down. So at this point really the only country in the Middle East that is pushing the United States towards escalation is Israel. And among others, that's not only because Israel is very fearful that any deal is not going to include limitations on Iran's ballistic missile program, but also because of Lebanon.

[00:09:38]And that's really the other arena that we have to look at in Lebanon right now.

[00:09:42]We're having a major escalation over the last several days. Theoretically, the sides are at a ceasefire. The ceasefire has been extended and Israel Lebanon are negotiating. Yet, Hezbah is pummeling Israeli forces with suicide drones and the northern parts of Israel, civilians with suicide drones. In turn, Israel has announced a massive expansion of its activities in southern Lebanon all the way to the areas of Sidon and some say even some attacks happening in the outskirts of Beirut. The reason reportedly is that Israel is afraid that there will be a deal with Iran and will limit what's happening in Lebanon. So, it's trying to now carry out as many attacks as it can. But that's really another arena that is constantly, you know, in in a state of constant escalation in terms of speculation.

[00:10:26]Going back to your question of so what are the chances that we see full-on return to fighting again we have to look at internal politics at this point the Trump administration is now looking at the ticking clock of November approaching you know while we talk about all of the global politics issues in the Middle East it's also very clear the Trump administration cares about what most Americans care about and that is gas prices the economic situation the strength of the dollar stability of the markets. These are all things the Trump administration cares about. So even if we do see another flare up and there might be there might be another round of bombings or things like that. I doubt that it would take that it would happen for more than a few days because the administration at some point does need that deescalation leading up to the elections. We'll see a lot of tough guy talk. We'll see a lot of threats. A full-on return to the same level and length of attacks that we had before would be surprising at this stage.

[00:11:23]Before we go, I want to ask you about a arena that you and I basically used to cover on the daily. Uh, a live look. Uh, and I excuse me, I shouldn't say a live look. This is file footage of the tent cities in Gaza. Um, today, Prime Minister Netanyahu alone said that he directed Israel's military to take more of Gaza initially by seizing 70% of the Palestinian territory. Um, I was kind of looking into this alone. Doesn't Israel already control a good amount of that land? Why is he making this announcement now?

[00:12:02]>> So, the arena in Gaza has actually been very, very active. There's been a lot of escalations happening in the Gaza Strip, primarily as a result of Israeli initiations at this point. The yellow line that is the demarcation line between the Israeli military and Hamas when the ceasefire was declared between the sides back in October of 2025. The yellow line said that Israel would control give or take 53% of the Gaza Strip temporarily so far temporarily beyond 6 months but that was temp temporary. Then with ongoing escalations and at that point also included Hamas attacks that were happening, the Israeli military pushed that forward and about a month ago was announced that it now controls about 60 to 61% of the territory in the Gaza strips. Some said even 63%. So Net now saying that he's ordered the Israeli military to push to 70% is significant, but it's more significant in the fact that he's publicly saying this rather than this being part of an incremental plan as a result of ongoing escalations. Declaring that as policy publicly at this point is a way of say of showcasing several things. First of all is showcasing that Israel has liberty from the United States to do this. The Israeli admin uh government would certainly not say something like that without Trump's approval. Trump is the one that tells Israel attack in Iran. Don't attack in Iran. Attack in Lebanon. Don't attack in Lebanon. Attack in Gaza. Don't attack in Gaza. So first of all, Netanyahu is showing we can flex our muscles there. A second reason why that might be happening now is again associated with that deal with Iran once things spiral down in the Middle East. Everyone can expect that Trump is not going to want an escalation anywhere else. So once there is Trump will announce that there's peace with Iran and peace in the Middle East, which there won't be, but there might be a ceasefire. Then he's not going to say to Israel, now you can escalate in Gaza. That's why we're seeing Israel push further into Lebanon and carry out these escalations in the Gaza Strip. Over the last week, Israel carried out two major assassinations of the leaders of the Alasam brigades, the Hamas's military wing in Gaza, and then also assassinated his replacement, Muhammad Uda, just two days ago. So, Israel is carrying on more initiatives at this point. I would associate that with a possible upcoming deal on Trump wanting to again announce that there's peace in the Middle East and Israel recognizing at that point we're not going to be able to change the status quo in the Gaza Strip. So, you have to do it now.

[00:14:27]>> Alone. appreciate the insight. How can people keep uh tabs of your coverage?

[00:14:32]How can people keep up with you?

[00:14:34]>> So, look me up on YouTube, The Israel Palestine Report. We upload constant things about the Middle East. Also, if you're interested in weekly free webinars that we have, go to my website, alone bursting.com/webinars.

[00:14:44]Constant updates on what's going on in the Middle East. Every different arena that we can cover as much as possible.

[00:14:50]>> Alone. Good to see you. Have a good night.

[00:14:52]>> Thank you. You have the Nate.