This Forecast Just Got WAY More Intense...

[00:00:00]Two large storms are coming which will bring dangerous severe weather and a potential tropical storm threat today. A powerful jetream will plunge south out of Canada which will trigger widespread severe thunderstorms from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Further south, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf will continue to stay stationary over the next few days, which could bring several inches of rain to Florida and may become a tropical cyclone. And this active weather pattern will not end there. Next week, a second major storm system will develop, unleashing another widespread multi-day severe weather outbreak across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and East Coast. This will be one of the most active weather patterns that we have had since June. So, let's get right into the forecast. And we do have a lot to talk about in today's forecast as we have a few major days of severe weather coming up. And it all starts today across the Northeast where we have a level three out of five enhanced risk of severe weather. This does include areas like Washington DC, Philadelphia, Buffalo, New York, and even Syracuse.

[00:01:07]All hazards of severe weather will be on the table today. But the big concern will be the risk of significant damaging wind gusts. Look at how large our wind threat is today. That area in pink that represents a 45% chance within a 25mi radius of damaging winds. So Cleveland, Buffalo, Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City, you guys are all under the gun for a higherend damaging wind risk for today. What's actually crazy is that the Storm Prediction Center mentioned that a 60% wind threat may be needed in a future outlook. One important thing I do want to note is that if the Storm Prediction Center does upgrade our wind threat to a 60% wind threat, that does not mean a moderate risk of severe weather will be in place unless they issue a SIG one wind threat, which would represent a 75 mileph wind threat or greater within a 25 mile radius. So, at least for right now, no moderate risk of severe weather would happen if that were to happen. But if we get a SIG one risk, it would definitely be on the table for a moderate risk of severe weather. Elsewhere, we're mostly talking about a scattered damaging wind threat for Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Charlotte, near Richmond, and then isolated damaging winds possible for Boston, back into Nashville, and also near St. Louis.

[00:02:16]Today's hail threat looks to be very low. I think pocket change sized hail will be possible out of maybe two or three supercells today, but overall, that is not the big concern. And there is also an elevated risk of tornadoes for today. We now have an EF2 plus tornado risk in place, which does include over 10 million people, most of which live in New York City. So, New York City, Philadelphia, you guys are now in a elevated risk for even an isolated strong tornado late this morning into the afternoon. There's also a large area where a few tornadoes are on the table, including Erie, Cleveland, Akran, Buffalo, and Syracuse. And then an isolated tornado threat for Fort Wayne, Toledo, Detroit, and also Hartford, Connecticut, and Springfield in Massachusetts. And then for tomorrow, the risk of severe weather will shrink a little bit in size. We have two slight risks of severe weather. One of which is across North Dakota where a couple supercells will be possible mainly with wind and hail. And then another slight risk for those in North Carolina and even near Virginia Beach. Damaging winds will be the main concern up to about 65 mph and there could be up to golf ball size hail out of the storms in the far northern plains right now. No tornado threat is on the table. And then Monday looks to be an elevated risk of severe weather in the Midwest. And then Tuesday will grow in size from St. Louis back into the Northeast. And we'll talk more about those two days in a moment. But let's first talk about what's coming up today and tomorrow. Now, let's talk more about the timing of severe weather for today. And we already have some storms out there this morning across Pennsylvania and New York. The big question mark today will be how intense these storms stay throughout the late morning and early afternoon because this initial cluster of thunderstorms ongoing this morning. If it does stay intense enough, there could be a localized tornado threat that develops right around and just after lunchtime near Allentown and New York. Notice our significant tornado parameter values near Allentown are actually going to be pretty elevated. Right now, they're forecast to be as high as a four in this area. So, if there were to be a discrete supercell, it could cause a big problem.

[00:04:06]With that said, though, there is uncertainty regarding how intense this is going to be. Some of the most recent computer model runs do not have any storms firing until 2 or 3:00. So, if there are storms out there that do intensify this morning, could have some problems on our hand. Eventually by 3 to 4:00, this will likely become a large cluster of thunderstorms producing at least some damaging wind threat, assuming this does transpire near New York City, Philadelphia back over towards Baltimore. But this is not the only story, guys. We got to watch this large area of thunderstorms late the in the morning into the early afternoon stretching from Chicago back over into Toronto. This will likely set up as multiple clusters of thunderstorms producing a very significant threat of damaging wind gusts as high as 70 to 75 mph. And it should be pretty widespread by 3 to four o'clock. These areas of thunderstorms will continue to push through areas like Syracuse, Buffalo, Fort Wayne, just north of Lafayette, and Indiana producing damaging wind gusts.

[00:04:59]Could have a low-end tornado threat embedded in the line of thunderstorms.

[00:05:02]We also need to monitor any sort of discrete supercells that do form out in front of the line because if that does happen, there will be an elevated tornado threat by 5 to 6:00. Storms again going to be very widespread here across the board. If you live in Cleveland, anywhere in northwestern Pennsylvania back over towards Albany, there will likely be storms in your neck of the woods. And then by 7 8:00, this will start to get a little bit weaker with time, but 60 mph winds will remain possible down into Cincinnati and once again New York City. And then things will start to fizzle out a little bit after sunset. Now, one thing I do want to point out with today's severe weather setup is that the amount of wildfire smoke out there is actually going to likely be a big factor in terms of how significant our severe weather is going to be. And right now, the HR model has a lot of wildfire smoke lingering around through lunchtime today near New York City, Boston, Massachusetts, and back into New Hampshire. This could actually stabilize our atmosphere a little bit and could prevent significant severe weather from happening until later in the afternoon hours. Which means that if that first round of storms doesn't get going near New York City or even near Philadelphia, the second round, which is going to be all the way back over here near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, is going to be a lot more intense, which means the wind threat will likely end up being pretty widespread in nature. And then tonight into tomorrow morning, that wildfire smoke is going to swing back down into Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan.

[00:06:19]So get ready for a very smoky next couple of days. Now for your Sunday, I am not expecting much severe weather for most of the country. The main area we are watching will be over in Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee where there will be a bunch of thunderstorms that fire up during the mid to late afternoon hours producing downburst damaging winds up to 70 m hour. I think the highest coverage for storms should be near Virginia Beach and Winston Salem. Peak time frame will be from about 3 to 8:00. Most of the storms will go right along Cape Pis during the late evening. So get ready for damaging wind gusts, maybe a little bit of isolated hail. I do think the tornado risk is going to be pretty low. There could also be some storms over here in northern Minnesota and North Dakota tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly near Grand Forks. I don't expect much in the way of tornadoes here, but damaging wind gusts will be on the table. Could have a low-end tornado environment, though, if you're over here in areas like Manitoba.

[00:07:07]So, we'll be keeping an eye out on that.

[00:07:08]I think Monday has the potential to be a pretty big day of severe weather across the Midwest. But I don't think we are talking about a tornado outbreak per se, but I do think a line of thunderstorms is very likely right now. So, this one looks like by 2:00 on Monday should have storms going up near Sou Falls. And these storms will eventually become pretty widespread in nature. If there are any discrete supercells, the tornado threat would be a bit more elevated. I'm not overly confident that this is going to be a big tornado day, but rather this could be a very significant wind threat that develops during the early to mid afternoon. So by 4:00, Rochester, Minnesota, back over even towards Appleton, storms are going to be knocking on your doorstep. And then around 5 to 6:00, line of thunderstorms should continue towards Cedar Rapids, Debuke, and Madison. I do want to point out that this is just a future model run. It's not going to be exact. Things are going to change over the next 24 hours. So make sure you come back to tomorrow's video for more details on this. But overall, I do not see this being a big tornado day, per se. The STP values are very low here. However, the wind threat does look like it could be very significant across the Midwest. I'm not ruling out some sort of do threat here, but I would say more than anything just a scattered to numerous damaging wind line of thunderstorms is going to be more likely than not in this region.

[00:08:21]Storms will arrive toward Chicago and Poria by around 8 to 9:00 and then eventually into the overnight hours.

[00:08:26]Those storms should fizzle and that'll open the door for our next severe weather event on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[00:08:30]And unfortunately, we do not have high-res computer models yet for Tuesday and Wednesday across the Midwest. But one key thing I will point out is that Tuesday will likely be a pretty big severe weather day here across the Ohio Valley and back along the East Coast.

[00:08:44]Right now, it's still hard to pinpoint exactly where that highest threat of severe weather is going to be. Our low pressure system will be well off to the north here of uh Michigan. So, generally speaking, this should be mostly a wind threat. There is a potential that we could see a couple of tornadoes, though.

[00:08:57]And then Wednesday right now is very uncertain. The latest GFS model run does not have much storm activity onshore at all. The European model is almost identical. Now, keep in mind the Storm Prediction Center has had a slight risk of severe weather along the Carolina coastline here, but I'm not sure if that's going to stay in place or not by our next few outlooks. But definitely stay tuned to the channel. The next few days again look very active. We have a slight risk right now for Monday across the Midwest. Slight risk in the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Tuesday. And Wednesday may feature some severe weather as well. And then after Wednesday, that storm system will move out. Cooler air will push back on the backside of this storm system for the northeast and the Great Lakes. So, a little bit of cooler air is on the horizon. I don't foresee there being any severe weather along the east coast on Thursday or Friday. Could have [snorts] some severe weather returning to the Midwest and Great Plains sometime around Thursday and Friday of next week. But right now, looks like anything that would happen would remain isolated. And then the very last few days of July could pick up in activity as well. But again, a lot of uncertainty really anytime beyond the next few days, especially since we have so many things going on. We got a major severe weather event possible today and then also a tropical system that is trying to form in the Gulf right now. And one thing that is really interesting is that the National Hurricane Center has bumped the odds of a tropical system forming now just west of Tampa to about a 30% chance over the next seven days and about a 10% chance over the next couple of days. It is a very interesting little storm system because we had a big explosive area of convection yesterday and there is a real chance that this might try to make a run at actually becoming a tropical system. So, here's the future radar. According to the HR, there will be an unclosed area of spin off the coast of Tampa throughout the daytime today. But there is a chance by tonight into tomorrow morning that it might try to close up and actually become a tropical storm. Now, regardless of this forming, it will bring the risk of flooding rainfall to Florida. If something were to actually form here, there could actually be a tornado threat for western Florida going into Sunday night and as well as Monday. There are some other models like the Rufus model, which tends to overpredict things. It does show a tropical system trying to form over multiple days. Actually has it moving west as we go into late Monday and Tuesday. Even gets it close to a hurricane. But I will say the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial. If it can close that circulation, there would be a much better chance of this actually becoming a tropical storm or even a hurricane. But again, the odds of it, I would still say, are low. I do not think the odds are very high. There's a lot of wind shear right now in the Gulf and that could very easily rip this thing apart over the next 24 hours or so. But again, I would definitely get ready for the flooding rainfall risk. There is a chance again it could move west though.

[00:11:25]And if it does move west, it would be moving into a more favorable environment in terms of it becoming a tropical storm. Right now, the National Weather Service blended models does have most of the heavy rain offshore here of Florida, especially if it does track back to the west. There'll be a much lower chance of flooding rainfall across Florida, unless you're near Cedar Key or Tampa. Slightly better chance still there. Could have a low gun tornado threat as well on Sunday. Just depends on how this thing evolves. So, make sure you're subscribed to the channel. We'll have another update video tomorrow morning talking all about this. And if there are any major changes to the forecast, we will let you know. And as always, thank you all again so much for watching today's forecast. If you are new to the channel, make sure to subscribe down below. I also recommend signing up for Max Alert today. If you are over in the Ohio Valley or the Northeast, this is a great way to receive weather alerts. You get a phone call with my voice if you are under a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning. You can program it the way you want it. There's also lightning detection alerts so you will never be caught off guard. Make sure to check this out. You can scan the QR code or go to maxalert.net. Live stream does look likely today, so stay tuned for that.