Peace, security and Petro's legacy: What's at stake in Colombia's election? | DW News

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[00:00:00]On Sunday, voters go to the polls in a presidential election widely seen as a referendum on the policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro. There are 14 candidates in total, but the race has narrowed to three major contenders competing over the future of Pro's reforms, peace negotiations with rebel groups, and the country's economic fate.

[00:00:22]Ivon Sapeda, the candidate from Pro's historical pact coalition, is campaigning on continuing the president's leftist agenda. The longtime senator, supports expanding labor and social reforms, raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations, and pursuing peace talks with armed groups. Now, he has also floated the possibility of pushing to rewrite Colombia's constitution if political paralysis becomes intractable. Now, the independent candidate, Abalardo Dele Espria, is running as a hardline outsider. The outspoken attorney has promised tougher action against rebel groups, major cuts to government spending, lower taxes for businesses, and the dismantling of several agencies created by President Pro. He strongly opposes any attempt to rewrite the Constitution. And the favorite among Colombia's political establishment, conservative Senator Paloma Valencia is also campaigning against Pro's reforms.

[00:01:23]Now, he is backed by former President Arvaro Aribba's Democratic center.

[00:01:29]Valencia wants to restore more market friendly economic policies, expand investment in oil and gas, and take a more aggressive security approach towards armed groups.

[00:01:42]And joining me now is Elizabeth Dickinson. She's deputy program director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group. She is based in Bogota. Elizabeth, it's good to have you with us. Um, this election, as I'm sure you are aware of, is being framed as a referendum on Gustavo Pro's presidency. How much of this vote is really about him and how much is it really about the candidates who want to replace him?

[00:02:09]You know, I think it's it's an interesting question because I think it gets at some of the core issues that are in the campaign trail, particularly with regards to social inequality, um issues like poverty that have really been the focus of the pro um government. If we look actually at the indicators on social well-being, unemployment, multi-dimensional poverty, many of them have improved during pro's term, and that is certainly an issue that is on the table. Of course, security as well rising to the surface. Um and on this front, Petra has a less than um stellar record in terms of maintaining stability through the country.

[00:02:41]>> Yeah. Let me ask you about that. I mean, how how much have the recent clashes between dissident FARC factions in the southeast of the country, including reports of dozens killed? I mean, how how have these reports influenced the campaign conversation?

[00:02:59]>> Well, unfortunately, um election violence has been an issue since the beginning of the campaign. In fact, the campaign opened last year with the assassination of a pre-candidate in June of 2025 in in plain um you know in in the middle of the afternoon here in in Bogotaa and unfortunately it's been an issue that has plagued the campaign since. Look, I mean I think the the the central issue here is what is the strategy of the forthcoming government in terms of tackling the rising presence of armed and criminal groups throughout the country. what the clashes in Guayare that you mentioned um really remind us of is the urgency of coming up with a plan to address this situation >> and is that an indictment of pro's policy of total peace be do voters in the country think total peace turned out to be a total failure >> you know it's interesting um since the Colombia in 2016 signed a peace agreement that demobilized its then largest armed group and really since that moment what we've seen is a reconfiguration of the conflict into a very different situation today. Today, what we have in Colombia are a number of largely criminalized actors who are interested in accessing the illicit economy. That's drug trafficking, but it's also illicit mining, its extortion, and all the sorts of rents that they can extract from the, you know, from the geography and also from the local population. The government that immediately followed under Ivan Duk implemented a strategy to really rely on the military to crack down against this expansion of violence. The pro administration went the other direction and tried to rely on dialogue. And unfortunately, neither of those approaches by themselves were able to roll back the trend of expansion of criminal activity. And I think one of the lessons that we can draw from this is that whoever enters in August when the new president will take office needs a strategy that's really drawing on all sorts of tools within the government.

[00:04:48]Whether that's military pressure, dialogue in certain occasions, and also fundamentally establishing a stronger presence of the Colombian state in remote areas where these groups take advantage of the lack of services and opportunities. I I wonder what all of this means then for candidate Ivon Sapeda because he says he wants to continue Petro's reforms and the policies that we saw in his um time in office. I mean, is this going to be a liability for him?

[00:05:18]You know, it's interesting because I think um while security is an issue on the ballot, clearly for voters at the top of their minds, I think in many ways what Ivon Sepeda's candidacy represents is the importance of addressing social grievances that for many years have been pushed aside with the priority of combating insecurity. those have now risen to the surface and I think really the platform that Ivan Zapeda is running on is a continuation of the social reforms an increase in minimum wage expansion of benefits uh to a broader broader sector of the population and it could well be that that issue for many voters supersedes the concerns about insecurity which largely is concentrated in rural areas here in Colombia. So if we if we look from from the left to center right, the the candidates Palumba Valencia and Abelardo de la Espria, they are promising a tougher security response and a return to more traditional economic policies. I mean is there a sense that voters are moving back towards the policies associated with Alvaro Oribba?

[00:06:26]You know, I think there is certainly a draw to that type of policy in the region and frankly we've seen it in other recent regional elections, whether those have been in Chile, in Argentina.

[00:06:35]Um, and and really particularly the appeal of an approach similar to that that the United States is pushing in the Western Hemisphere to really take a harder hand at cracking down on on drug trafficking organizations. What we have learned in Colombia is that the military is part of a solution. But including in our conversations today with at the highest levels of the military, there is a strong recognition that there is no military solution to the current conflict in Colombia. Of course, pressure plays a role, but there will need to be a broader set of policies to address these issues fundamentally that keep recycling violence. Just as an example, one of the issues that we've seen here in Colombia in recent months and and years expand dramatically is child recruitment into armed and criminal groups. In large part, this happens because these children don't have other options. Um whether that's access to, you know, a dignified a dignified job or, you know, basic issues like um a lack of food in their home, they're drawn into these criminal organizations in essence because of the fundamental inequalities that continue to um to to to to exist in Colombian society. So, I think the the idea of a military approach that leans close, leans harder, and cracks down um is appealing because it sounds like a simple solution to a very complex problem. The reality will probably be a lot more complex.

[00:07:55]>> I want to ask you about relations with the United States in just a moment, but but first, let's um briefly talk about these breadandbut issues, the economy.

[00:08:03]Um what are voters most concerned about right now? Inflation, debt inequality, jobs. I mean what gets their attention?

[00:08:13]>> It's a really split screen picture here because as I mentioned many of the indicators for example and poverty have improved. Unemployment is at a record low but at the same time because of some of the social spending that has happened during this government. The new president will take office with very limited fiscal space. Uh Colombia today is borrowing at a rate that is one of the highest in the world. And so the flexibility of an incoming government to continue that spending or to draw and bring out new priorities will be very limited. In that sense, I think the economy is is really again depending on how you see the issue, it's a strength or a weakness for the candidates um going forward. Separately, you know, I think that the the um I I think fundamental breadandbut issues will continue to be a reality in Colombia.

[00:08:56]This is a one of the most equal unequal countries in Latin America and regardless of who wins, whether they're on the right or the left, they will need to speak to this constituency of voters that have now found their voice through the the the left here in Colombia and will continue to demand a stronger social policy from the state.

[00:09:14]>> And if we look look far north of the border, Colombia has historically been one of Washington's closest allies in Latin America. But we know that President Pro has clashed with Donald Trump. Is the Trump administration is Donald Trump is he a factor in this election?

[00:09:32]>> I think certainly this has been an issue in the campaign and I think voters particularly on the right have accused the current government of of mistreating the most important relationship for the country. As you mentioned there is a special place for the US Colombia relationship here on the ground and that has to do with a long history of commercial ties. The United States is by far Colombia's most important trading partner, buying coffee, buying agricultural goods, and so forth, but also its most important military ally.

[00:09:58]There has been a long investment from the United States in building and professionalizing the military here in Colombia with the aim of Colombia really being a leader regionally in sort of state-of-the-art activity in in in combating organized crime. That also extends, for example, to investigations and judicial cooperation in going after some of these organizations and the profits that they're deriving from this illicit activity. You know, I think that the the Trump administration has not weighed in in this election. And in many ways, I think the reality that whoever takes office uh will have to face is are strong demands from the United States to ally with a policy that is very hard on organized crime. Um but potentially could have repercussions here in Colombia. What we have learned in decades of this so-called war on drugs policy is that many of these operations, for example, high level captures tend to generate new waves of violence that direct local that affect local populations. And I think the new president will have to balance that pressure from Washington with their own priorities of civilian security here on the ground.

[00:11:01]>> Let me ask you before we run out of time, we know Colombia is a polarized country. If no candidate reaches 50% and the race goes to a runoff, paint a picture for us. What's going to happen then?

[00:11:14]>> That's right. And I think that that polarization has unfortunately grown more profound in the campaign because what voters are choosing from essentially are two very different views of how to move forward in Colombia. On the left, you have a a a proposal that is very much focused on social policies and also dialogue to contain the security situation. On the right, you have of course a return to economic uh fundamentalist doctrine as well as as sort of a military approach to the conflict. Um probably the reality of whoever comes through this campaign successfully is that they will need to draw on both sides of that strategy in order to successfully start to reign in violence and also um address the real concerns and insecurities and and inequalities that continue to plague uh Colombian society. Unfortunately, we do anticipate that the polarization will only uh grow more pronounced in the coming weeks and up to a potential runoff.

[00:12:07]>> Elizabeth Dickinson at the International Crisis Group. Elizabeth, good to have you on the program. Good to get your insights on this upcoming election.

[00:12:14]Thank you.

[00:12:16]>> Thank you.