EUROPE: Summer in West, Winter in East With Record Moscow Snow! Model Shift Into May??

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:02]All right, good day to everybody and welcome to the Tuesday edition of European outlook. We are rapidly approaching the final month of meteorological spring and I kind of feel as if there's a little bit of a spring in our step with this fine weather that we're seeing. I know not everybody and you can quite clearly see that not everybody is enjoying the sunshine.

[00:00:23]Certainly up here in the north of Scotland we are enjoying pretty much clear blue skies. Temperature's not overly warm, it has to be said, but when you feel that warmth off the sun, it certainly makes you feel good and we are going to see that increase in temperature as we progress through the mid and second point of this working week. A very different story has to be said over in the far east of Europe. More on that in just a second, but you can see here again, very pleasant conditions across a good swathe of central Europe. Over towards the west of Europe as well. A little bit more in the way of cloud cover and some outbreaks of thunderstorm activity across parts of Iberia for example here.

[00:01:12]But this generally pretty warm across the west of Europe and cooler in the east. If we zoom into the UK then specifically, you can see here we've got some marine influence at the moment. Area of high pressure that is anchored up to the north. Kind of stretched from the pretty much the subtropical Atlantic all the way across into Scandinavia across and over the UK. But we've got these banks of marine influence so to speak.

[00:01:41]Thick low cloud.

[00:01:44]That is affected parts of highland pressure. You can see that here a little bit earlier then there's a little bit of a retreat in that as the sun gets higher in the sky and it kind of burns and shrinks some of that marine layer so to speak. California very susceptible to that this time of the year. You get the classic May gray, June gloom along the coastal stretches of particularly southern well, all of California but southern California in particular.

[00:02:13]And you know, when you've got the wind coming in off the very cold North Sea at this time of the year.

[00:02:21]Pretty much the same kind of process as what you get in California in terms of the marine influence here. But they generally speaking, we've got the a lot of clear blue skies to be had. These are the current temperatures not just for the UK but across Europe. You can see here pleasantly warm across central and particularly southwestern areas of Europe. Temperatures are once again into the high teens approaching 30 Celsius.

[00:02:47]Get yourself down into the northwest of Africa and you're talking about temperatures into the 30s. Not not really unusual for this time of the year. Holding on to some chillier across Scandinavia but that chill is getting driven south through the Baltics and into western portions of of Russia, Ukraine.

[00:03:08]And these were the conditions that we seen yesterday in the Russian capital, Moscow. Check this out.

[00:03:31]So yes, a significant snowstorm for late April. Record breaking to be exact with around 12 cm accumulating. Heaviest snowfall recorded on this date and like I say, I believe this was yesterday or into the early hours of this morning in Moscow, Russia.

[00:03:51]If we put on the minimum temperatures in, you can see here just bear with a second here. Minimum temperatures.

[00:04:00]These were the temperatures this morning. So sub freezing quite firmly across the majority of Scandinavia including Denmark. Obviously that's part of Scandinavia as well. Obviously but into Poland, the Baltic region, western Russia into Ukraine down into the eastern side of the Balkan region. Is that the eastern side of the Balkan region? I suppose Romania. So we're talking about eastern Romania into Moldova.

[00:04:27]And even into the north of Bulgaria a fairly chilly start to the day. Much milder further west as you can see here.

[00:04:34]And if we look at these temperature anomalies here, this is off the GFS through the course of the weekend.

[00:04:41]We had the firmly warmer than average temperatures. Obviously cool by night, warm by day. We seen the big fluctuations in temperature.

[00:04:51]But back half of the last week, particularly Friday. As well as that Saturday even temperatures minus 3.5 at Benson. Afternoon temperatures were above 21 Celsius. So big swings in temperature when you've got the high pressure in the trough. You can see here chillier across northern Europe.

[00:05:08]Warmer across the south and in comes that very very chilly air for the time of the year during the course of Sunday.

[00:05:17]Temperature anomalies are good 8 to even 10 Celsius below average. But look at across southern and western Europe. Very different story indeed. Now as I've already harped on about for quite some time. If we look at the temperature anomalies looking down over top of the pole.

[00:05:35]You can see North America. You can see Greenland almost at the center including the Arctic region and and the cold residing across Europe, western portions of North America and parts of eastern Russia.

[00:05:52]And over the next 5 days or so we're going to see the cold getting pushed eastwards across the United States lower 48. You're going to have continued chill across eastern portions of Europe and you're going to also see colder air begin to affect eastern China, Korea's, Japan.

[00:06:11]And the reasons for this is quite simple. We've got this switch around in the Arctic oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation and that's been triggered by the Madden-Julian oscillation moving through the eastern Pacific. We obviously had the uptick in west Pacific tropical activity. Sinlaku was a recurve moved up into the north portion of the Pacific. That then re-buckled and reconfigured not only the jet orientation but also the ridge trough pattern. It forced high pressure to build over the Arctic region and then forced cold troughs to then descend into the middle latitudes here. Places that were warmest during March and much of April is now turned quite cold and you can see it quite clearly, quite evident here the response to not only that MJO but also the major sudden stratospheric warming that took place in the early March. Now you're asking the question, well, we're quite warm here Mark compared to eastern portions of Europe.

[00:07:09]Yes, we are underneath that block.

[00:07:12]So we've had dry conditions for quite some time now and we've also seen some fairly warm temperatures as well. But these are the last 3 days you can see here. Cold over central, northern and eastern Europe. So a good part of Europe has actually turned quite cold over recent times. Very warm across central Eurasia. We've been seeing significant heat in India, Pakistan recent times.

[00:07:36]Normal pre-monsoon heat is building of course here. More on that in the upcoming global weather report. It won't be a live but it will be a pre-recorded video that will be released on Saturday.

[00:07:47]We're going to be talking about that in quite a bit of detail. And notice here the cold over western portions of Canada, the northwest of the the USA as well here. So if we look at Europe specifically.

[00:08:00]This is how the last 3 days have turned out. So very very cold air. And again like I say, this has been triggered by the SSW. Looking at the UK current temperatures in and you can see for the UK, this is how it's looking and obviously underneath the the the banks of cloud that have drifted in off the North Sea during the course of last night struggling to to burn off. And you can see temperatures fairly subdued here. It's in a few spots 10s, 9s across the northeast of England. You know, a good swathe of eastern Scotland is actually struggling to get much above double figures here. Further west, look at that there 18 Celsius at the Loch Leven Sgarbhach.

[00:08:47]But fairly chilly actually across even the southwest. Good swathe of England away from that southeast corner is actually seeing cooler temperatures.

[00:08:56]Look at the the very distinct east-west contrast over Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Holding on to 10, 11 Celsius in the east coast. West coast you're talking about 18, possibly 19 Celsius. And as we progress through the rest of this working week, we are going to see a rise in the temperature.

[00:09:16]So interesting develops developments here over recent times. Now um it actually looks as if there's a bit of a dramatic shift in the model solution as we head into the month of May.

[00:09:32]Now you notice here this is the upcoming 5 days off the GFS ensemble and you've got this trough that is with origin over the west coast of Canada. We've got a trough then dropped into the eastern side of the United States. So chillier like I say is going to be shifting eastwards over the next few days across the USA. We've got ridging on the east coast of Canada as well. We've got a negative over Greenland if you notice. Ridging underneath that negative here and that extends into the majority of the UK a little weak low just to the southwest of the UK and Ireland, but ridging elsewhere further east further north as well. But notice here in the day 6 through 10, we have almost the opposite of what the models have been suggested. We actually have low pressure regaining possession across Iceland here with higher pressure over Europe. Instead of it being negative NAO, that's actually a positive NAO signal showing up. We do have a trough over the eastern portion of the United States with that ridge actually extending further northwards over the over the western side of North America.

[00:10:47]We've got a deeper trough showing up in the GFS ensemble over the eastern USA, but notice here that we have an interesting negative up over Iceland, positive over central areas of Europe.

[00:10:59]And that is quite different as we head into the period 3rd through the 8th of May. So if we look at Europe specifically, this is how it's showing that same idea here. So So yeah, if we look at the temperature anomalies then, this is how that 6 to 10 day looks. Now, it's not overly warm if you notice here across much of Europe. Granted, yes, it's one than average for the UK, maybe slightly above to the southeast, slightly below to the northwest. That's quite interesting in the 11 to 15 day.

[00:11:34]It's showing around about average if not slightly above average. So there's a trend here to something more leaning warmer than average as opposed to cooler than average. Day 1 through 5 looks like this here, firmly warmer than average west and north, much cooler in the east again.

[00:11:53]Like I've I've said away back at the beginning of the springtime, when you get these SSWs in the springtime, it depends on it can happen even in the wintertime. It depends where you sit with the regard to that block. And we've seen it in the past with winters, bitterly cold conditions in central and eastern Europe. We end up being sitting underneath the block, underneath the wheel in which it transports cold air from the north to the south. If you're sitting underneath the block, you're not actually going to see that colder air in place. This, folks, is actually a pretty nice pattern. It has to be said. Yes, it's getting drier. Um it'll be interesting see as we head into the month of May. May outlook, that will be released coming up in the next day probably 24 hours or so actually. I'm hoping to try and get it either tomorrow if not on Wednesday, which obviously is the final day of April. So over the next couple of days we're going to be looking at the May outlook. There will be also a written forecast released on the website as well. So this is the upcoming 7 days, still drier than average. This takes us out to the 5th of May.

[00:13:02]Slightly wetter than average across Iberia, western France, central and eastern Europe is and north as well as you know, much of the UK is drier than average if you notice here.

[00:13:13]And then play through you can see here that we turn to something closer to average rather than, you know, above average or below average for that matter.

[00:13:26]So it's quite interesting here the little shift that we're seeing in terms of the overall pattern. Incidentally, this is the the month to date in terms of the temperature anomaly. I'm trying to think if there was something else that was going to share with you before I go.

[00:13:45]I probably have forgotten something no doubt, but you can see here northern Europe, western southwestern Europe firmly warmer than average. Iceland warmer than average as well. Central and eastern areas have been colder than average through the 20th of April.

[00:14:04]Um So let me just think here. I think that's about it really. I've showed you the video with regards to the snow in Moscow.

[00:14:13]Uh let's have a just a quick scan of the operational model of the GFS for the next couple of days to see what the overall outcome is.

[00:14:25]In fact, let's have a quick look at the precipitation then, total precipitation over the next few days looks like this.

[00:14:35]As you can see here, it's staying dry across the bulk of mainland UK away from the southwest corner. This is all the way up to Friday then.

[00:14:44]And you can see something a little bit wetter coming in to play as we progress through the course of next week. So firmly drier than average like last week, this week, next week it looks as if we're going to see a change to something wetter, which I'm sure gardeners, farmers will be glad to see that coming back in. But how much of a change is this? Does it Is it a blip in an overall dry signal or is it a shift in the overall pattern?

[00:15:16]That's going to be the question here.

[00:15:18]But with that wetter weather comes lower pressure and we start to see that high begin to gradually weaken. The temperatures are going to be ticking up over the next several days here before we start to see You just notice that we become the UK positions itself in a little bit of a call here between weather systems. The high then drifts off to the east end of the continent here. Lower heights across the UK and then you can start to see with lower heights you see more instability within the atmosphere and a shift to something wetter. So we certainly are going to see, but even as we head into the Sunday it looks as if high pressure is going to try and hold on. Then we've got an area of low pressure, but this isn't until early next week that area of low pressure. So initially it said during the course of the upcoming bank holiday weekend that this area of low pressure would move in, but also we would import something colder. That suggestion has kind of been kicked out of the way actually.

[00:16:25]And instead what there appears to be is a bit of a delay with that area of low pressure drifting up, perhaps affecting the UK by the time we reach bank holiday Monday. Let's have a quick look at the 850 temperatures to see what kind of temperatures we're talking here.

[00:16:44]You can see here some cooler air flirting with the UK, but nothing really crossing over the UK as a whole here.

[00:16:55]But we've not got any major warmth to be had certainly over the next couple of weeks here anyway.

[00:17:02]Finally, let's have a quick look at the ECMWF and see what its solution is for the overview.

[00:17:09]And in terms of the breakdown of this area of high pressure, so we linger on, start this pull in more southeasterly winds, and that is going to allow the temperatures to jack up. I think widespread 20s, low 20s at that. Might see some mid-20s showing up towards Friday, for example.

[00:17:29]This is as we head into Friday. Again, lower heights, more instability comes back into play. Lots of showers starting to develop as we head into the weekend here.

[00:17:41]And then area of low pressure as of Sunday. So notice here that it's affecting the particularly the southern half of the UK during the course of Sunday.

[00:17:51]And again, higher pressure trying to hold on.

[00:17:55]Notice here its position more towards the north.

[00:17:58]Let's move on to the 850s then.

[00:18:02]And you can see here again, we're in between some pretty notable cold to the north, some notable warmth to the south.

[00:18:10]Anyway, that is it for today. I hope you have enjoyed today's video. Be sure to leave a comment. Hit that like button, folks, as well. It really does help me out. And your overall support is is very very greatly appreciated. And if you do appreciate content, then be sure to hit that subscribe button. It doesn't cost you a single penny, but it just lets me know that you're enjoying what you're seeing here. So anyway, take care. I'll see you again tomorrow with more. And yeah, have a great one. Bye-bye.