Iran Expects WAR TO RESUME In 48 Hours

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-19

[00:00:03]Good morning everybody. Happy Monday.

[00:00:05]Have an amazing show for everybody today. What do we have Crystal?

[00:00:07]>> Indeed we do. Trump making new threats against Iran. Uh also we've got a look at the economic fallout. Time to start hoarding motor oil apparently because um there's a dire situation developing there. Shortages imminent. Thomas Massie facing the fight of his life. An onslaught. It's now the most expensive congressional race in history as the Israel lobby pours cash into that race to try to defeat him. We will preview that. We're also taking a look at new bogus intel that's being laundered on Cuba to try to create a pretext for an invasion. Trump made thousands of trades as president, like more than 3,000 stock trades, including for companies like, oh, I don't know, Palunteer, Nvidia, some top names that you have certainly heard about and that he has certainly been influential in pushing. Um, and we've got a few other corruption stories here as well, including Cash Patel with a VIP snorkeling trip uh at Pearl Harbor of all places. So, just uh incredible things happening there.

[00:01:05]>> Yeah, you or I uh they actually banned swimsuits at Pearl Harbor, which I massively support, don't get me wrong.

[00:01:10]Uh but apparently not for Cash Patel.

[00:01:12]Now, what I love are all the other government officials who are like, "Guys, I snorkeled at Pearl Harbor years ago." I'm like, "Oh, okay. So, apparently this has been a secret thing that's been going on for quite some time. Uh, Mr. Cash literally escorted by Navy Seal. I'm not sure why these types of things make me so hot, but I think everybody, every American should be disgusted uh by this, you know, irreverence, the display of uh what they decide to do, not only with our tax dollars, but in which they treat everyone. So, there you go. Uh, thank you to everybody. If you are watching this on YouTube, please hit subscribe to our YouTube channel. And if you're listening to this podcast, please share an episode with a friend. It really helps other people find the show. But as Crystal said, we're going to go ahead and start with the war with Iran. Let's put A1 up there on the screen. So, Donald Trump's latest truth social post for Iran. The clock is ticking. They better get moving fast or there won't be anything left of them. Time is of the essence. This is paired actually with some new analysis from Treatari. Let's go ahead and put this up here on the screen which he released late last night. He said the Middle East is once again teetering on the brink as Trump appears to reignite war with Iran. While Trump's threats of war may be theater designed to face Tyrron into submission, Thrron expects the US to attack it within the next 48 hours. We should recognize that restarting the war amounts to an admission that the previous escalatory gambit has failed.

[00:02:38]That in turn was in itself admission that the war had failed, which was an admission that the threats of war in January had already failed. As I argued before, this relentless search for an escalatory silver bullet capable of bringing Iran to its knees is not unique to Trump. It has become a defining pathology of American Iran policy for decades. I just think it's incredibly well said. Succinct summarizes everything, but the topline news there from Tito Parcy is that his sources in Thrron believe that the war will restart within the next 48 hours. It does seem to fit with all of this clock is ticking, some of these exchanges of negotiations, all of which have failed.

[00:03:15]And we'll get into some of the details, but it does seem basically inevitable at this point. The ceasefire has now been longer than the actual war itself.

[00:03:24]Nothing has been accomplished. The amount of oil remains at a trickle. Iran still retains control of the straight of Hormuz. The global oil markets remain disastrous. And you know, we here in the United States, today, I actually think this weekend will be the weekend where a lot of Americans wake up. It's Memorial Day weekend. It's probably the first time they're going to put on be on the road for several hours. People are really going to be interacting with those gas prices, probably more so than normal. And then the sticker shock of just, you know, $450 a gallon nationally or if you live in California, well over $6. I think that's going to hit home.

[00:04:02]And also as people uh I've been seeing already tweets, you know, a lot of viral ones, people who are booking flights for summer travel who are like, "Oh my god."

[00:04:10]Right? They're like, "Not doing that again anytime soon." So you couple those two things together, I actually think this weekend could be a turning point.

[00:04:17]>> I think you could be right about that.

[00:04:19]And for many millions of Americans, it's really already hit home where, you know, they were already struggling and now just to fill up a tank of gas, be able to get to work is becoming an impossibility. We're already seeing the way that um people at the lower end of the income scale have had to cut back.

[00:04:34]Of course, the wealthy will be unaffected because to them the increase in gas prices is really like you know it's a barely a blip on the radar and uh Trump those are the people that Trump is talking to and those are the people that Trump is thinking about. More on that in the economic se section. But I fear that you're correct about this because the current situation with the straight of Hormuz closed really is an unsustainable situation for the US and truly for the globe. That economic news is only going to continue to tighten. And then you've got the Israelis and the neocons here in the US who are certainly pushing to for a return to hostilities. Lindsey Graham uh made the rounds on the Sunday shows yesterday. This is A3. Let's take a listen to his push for renewed air strikes. The status quo is hurting us all. The longer the straight is closed, the more we try to pursue a deal that never happens, the stronger Iran gets.

[00:05:24]So according my analysis is there's nothing to suggest that the people in charge now are any different in terms of the regime's goal to terrorize the world, destroy Israel, come after us. So what do you do next? You weaken them further. Yeah, what President Trump has done has been amazing militarily, but there's still more targets to be had and there's things we can do to hurt their the energy infrastructure is their soft underbelly. If you go back to the fight, I'd put energy on top of the list.

[00:05:55]>> I want to couple that with A7, if we can put this up on the screen, which is that Trump and BB had a call yesterday and there was also a um security meeting inside of Israel. And if you think about the timing on all of this saga, of course, Trump just back from this trip to China, it would make sense that he wanted to sort of pause a return to hostilities until he got through that particular trip if there were ongoing hot hostilities during his trip to China. That could be a little bit awkward, a little uncomfortable, may undermine some of the very minimal deals that he was able to do there. I mean, he really returned with basically nothing anyway. But you can imagine why this timing would make some sense and why also the reality is setting in. You know, he was fed a bunch of that he chose to believe from the uh from FDD and other sources of oh, if we just blockade their blockade, then within days, this is what they were truly selling. Within days, Iran's whole economy will collapse and their oil wells are going to explode. Remember when Trump said that? It has to be setting in now. Okay, that plan is not going to work out. Not that Iran isn't suffering and that there isn't economic damage, but they are able to withstand that a lot longer frankly than we can because their paid tolerance is much much higher. So the logic is very likely within the administration to be that that was offered by Lindsey Graham or that that Emily and I covered last week was offered by Eric Ericson. He said the only way out is through. We can't stay in this position. So we have to just go back one more bombing campaign. Maybe we have to do that ground invasion. Those are the sorts of things that are being contemplated right now.

[00:07:28]>> Look, I it's unfortunately there's a relative inevitability to this thing. He either surrenders or he escalates all the way. He doesn't want to do either.

[00:07:37]And so he's going to continue. This is where Robert Pap's uh analysis of the escalation trap is so important. And remember, we always say this is that we always think of history in terms of a linear fashion. No, it takes a long if you go and you read the history of the Second World War. Like it took 2 years before the United States was even involved. Like there's a lot of stuff that happened. There were multi-month periods where literally nothing happened. But we don't think about that in retrospect. We were in a short pause actually even in a long sweep of history, 30 something days. It's really nothing. But the inevitability of where things must end up it it it really was decided on the very day that the war itself was launched. Can we put A4 up here on the screen? Uh this is from the latest uh military action that took place and this is very interesting by the way. Drone strikes UAE near UAE nuclear power plant as US and Iran signal they are prepared to resume the war. But here's kind of what's interesting. A drone strike sparked a fire on the edge of the sole nuclear power plant in the UAE on Sunday in what the authorities called an unprovoked terrorist attack. No one was blamed, but it highlighted the risk of renewed war.

[00:08:50]Now, the UAE had previously said that the strikes came from the west. So, you're like, "Oh, okay. Well, let's take a look at a map. There's a lot of countries to the west of the UAE. Who could they be?" And I mean, the crazy thing is is it could be a variety of different countries. Could be Saudi Arabia because they're currently in some sort of a, you know, a dust up. Could be Israel potentially, you know, wanting to uh wanting to like restart the war or to pressure them. It could also I guess theoretically it could be Iran from some sleeper drone you know platform or something or maybe it flew in a different direction but it just highlights like the 40th order chaos that has come now as a result of the war. The UAE has has left OPEC. I was oh my god I was just reading yesterday the effect on the Qatari economy from the war hasn't been nearly as publicized because we've all been focused on gas or on uh oil. the the natural gas holdup of all of that LNG some 20% of the world's LNG just held up and then the dramatic reduction in the Raslafan gas field I mean that is already cascading across the global economy but they are having to change multi-year projections for their own investments and their economy like this could be an extinction event if it continues for the Qatari economy like you may literally see the just like with the first world war Like you may go into a war which you expect to be 70 days, a nice little war, which is what they originally thought it would be. And you may literally watch the destruction of all of these different houses and monarchies. And what we're basically watching in all of this is the US and even Iran to a certain extent who are in a level of limbo where they both overestimate their relative strength.

[00:10:33]We've talked a little bit about this and this is not to say that Iran is not in a very very strong position but they can still be eliminated if the full force of the military is there. This is part of what tightens the escalation trap. Let's put the uh next one up there on the screen just to highlight you know how strong their demands are and why any American where if they were or sorry how strong Washington's demands are and why Iran while it has any fight left in it whatsoever cannot agree to this. So, for example, here's Washington's. There will be no payment of reparations or compensation by the US. There will be a removal and transfer of 400 kg of enriched uranium from Iran to the US.

[00:11:10]Only one Iranian nuclear facility will remain operational. There will be no release of even 25% of Iran's frozen assets, a halt to the war on all fronts contingent on completing negotiations first. And then Iran has its own preconditions which are the war must end on all fronts. A lifting of all sanctions, a release of all assets, a compensation for war demands, and US recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. There is just no there's no universe in which this even can come together. And that's despite all of the rhetoric. So even though both you know Iran is stronger in a strategic position but it did definitely take some of a pounding not nearly as much as we were originally told the US has expended God only knows tens of billions probably but I would say what the real cost of the war is without even fuel and the amount that we've all paid probably closer to 60 to 70 billion even at this point considering all the carrier strike groups all the munitions that doesn't even mention all of the lost uh you know production timeline etc. But and when I see though that for them Trump because of his, you know, his image and really of the blow that this has already given to the global empire, everything just seems to be pointing in that direction where they want to restart.

[00:12:23]>> Yeah, absolutely. And I think the situation with the UAE and you know this drone strike, which the drones came over the UAE's border with Saudi Arabia, that's where they came from. Now Saudi saying, "Oh, it wasn't us." But um the UAA UAE already thought that the Saudis were behind some strikes on their infrastructure particularly at Fujera.

[00:12:42]The Saudis think the UAE has been behind some strikes on their ter territory with regard to their critical oil energy infrastructure. And the fact that you have you have them messing around. You got Israel doing god knows what and trying to f god knows what. the makes the whole thing even more volatile because you have so many more players with other agendas involved than just the US and Israel and Iran. So that's part of what makes this situation so incredibly dangerous. But I mean just to to put one other piece of information that we've got here, put a up on the screen of potentially kinetic action.

[00:13:19]This is looking fairly solid at this point. Um, according to open source intelligence monitor OSENT Defender, wreckage visible in circulating photos and videos shows an MQ9 drone um, Reaper drone having been hit and struck by the Houthis in Yemen. Um, they each are worth approximately $30 million according to drop site here. And, um, they're saying that, you know, there have been at least 24 of those downed over Iran, about 20 by the Houthis in Yemen. So, yet another one of those being taken out, it appears based on what we can tell from open- source um intelligence monitoring. But, uh you know, the the logic of this thing seems to only go in one direction because Saga was just putting up there, the demands from the Iranians and the demands from the US, the US demands are just frankly delusional. You know, we lost this war.

[00:14:08]We lost it strategically. Not to say we couldn't go back in and, you know, pound the hell out of the Iranians again if we want to. But in terms of accomplishing our strategic objectives, we totally and completely failed. They emerge with some, you know, some cards to use the Trumpian terminology that they did not have in the past that we are not going to be able to take away. And so the fact that you have provisions in there that are more aggressive than what was being contemplated before this war is just delusional. It's insane. They're going to ship their uric uranium to the US.

[00:14:38]That's one of the supposed provisions that we're pushing here. We're saying absolutely no sanctions relief. We're not going to unfreeze your assets.

[00:14:47]That's going to be a hard no from the Iranians. So, as much as there's been, you know, some kind of dialogue and back and forth and potential negotiations, you can see from the US positions that Trump is not willing to take the ego hit and humiliation and go out and try to sell this thing that would be required.

[00:15:04]I thought he made a very revealing comment last week to Sean Hannity when he said like, "Well, you know, maybe I don't care." I'm paraphrasing obviously.

[00:15:11]I don't care actually that much about the nuclear dust, but I kind of promise this thing the fake news media is going to be all over me if I don't get it. So, I guess I'm committed to it. There's a lot of truth to that. He has backed himself into a corner now where even though he is, you know, the artist and chief, he doesn't even think he could sell what he could get at the negotiating table right now as a win.

[00:15:32]the current situation, the economic news tightening, the status quo, that is not sustainable. That was something that, you know, some people had hoped. I think Joe Kent kind of hoped like maybe we can just kind of muddle through and not come to an official deal, but hope that we can ride this thing out. That is not looking like it's sustainable. And you've got all these neocons in his ear and the Israelis pushing like, let's go back in, one more bombing campaign, one more ground invasion. Let's do something so you can establish a win. And I fear I fear that that logic is going to be compelling to him.

[00:16:02]>> It's very LBJ. LBJ I'm not gonna be the first a president to ever lose a damn war. You would say it over and over again in the situation room. And the thing what's always comforting about bombs and escalation is that there's a theoretical payoff. Whereas you know what the actual outcome will be. That's why it takes genuine courage to say this is madness. We can't keep doing this anymore. Like that's heroism. What's cowardly is what every president did in Afghanistan. Like oh this time we're going to get him. this time we'll do this surge. This time we'll continue to go forward saying, you know, first you go from 3,000 advisors to 6,000. That didn't do the jobs and need 10,000 100,000. Oh, if we escalate the bombing and then this, you know, uh, operation rolling thunder, that will break the back of the Vietnamese. You can see how easy that is to fall for cuz these generals, you know, they got their uniforms, you got this vast array of empire at your disposal. That's the easy option to always go down. The check on that is supposed to be politics.

[00:16:58]>> Well, and Trump loves dropping those bomb. He loves the visuals of it. He feels powerful. He feels like a man. He wants Pete Hegset to put together a highlight reel for him. A two-minute highlight reel for him to consume to feel like he's big, strong, tough, powerful guy. He's sort of addicted to that stuff is the other dangerous thing here, you know, and I don't think he's the first president to be that way, but I do think he takes it obviously to another level.

[00:17:20]>> He takes it to the nth degree. There's an element of ego ego there's an egoomaniacal element of this which is inherent to like all of them. And I also think as his polls drop what is the what is the you know not only did his polls drop do they even have a bill like if the Republicans were going to win the midterms what are they going to do? They don't even bother telling you like they literally don't even tell you here's what we're going to do with the presidency and the house and the senate.

[00:17:45]There's no v it's not even about vision.

[00:17:46]There's no plan whatsoever. It's basically just like we will continue to be Trump's slaves like here in the house. You're like uh okay well you know it doesn't seem all that different from right now and that doesn't seem to be going well. But they have the control of the global empire which is they have total authority and now especially with Congress having given up even its checks on war and peace. I mean this is as close to a king as you will ever see, right? And let's put A7 up there up there on the screen. Here is Netanyahu apparently speaking with Trump amid reports that Israel and the US are preparing Iran strike. Remember this, you know, the Israeli media reports this like every week about preparing for Iran strikes. But, you know, you definitely do need to treat it seriously. The PM will convene a limited security cabinet that drone strikes on the UAE nuclear station and Iranian media saying that the US has offered no concrete concessions and demands a shutdown of all but one nuclear facility. So, there have been talks back and forth, phone calls with Prime Minister Netanyahu and with Trump. When I talked about that convenience element and how easy they will sell you a vision, that's what Netanyahu is doing right now. He's all up in his ear. He's like, "Hey, we can do this. We all we got to do is restart.

[00:18:56]All we got to do is take out these nuclear power plants or all we got to do is take out this energy infrastructure and that one will, you know, finally drive them to the negotiating table."

[00:19:06]So, I I don't know, you know, in terms of what's breaking right now. I saw a little bit of news uh Tasmine had reported that maybe the US would wave oil sanctions in you know as we continue to go forward with some sort of potential negotiation. Just always keep in mind like these people are always fading and bluffing and Trump has said probably every week of the war that the war will be over in just a few weeks.

[00:19:30]There also have been multiple instances where he's used diplomacy as a cover and there's also been multiple instances where it looked like the war was about to restart. like remember the infamous you know we will wipe out their civilization before he eventually blinks. So we don't know what is going to happen. It is noteworthy at the very least to me that they are saying right now they expect the war to continue in the next 48 hours even though there's some you know oh the US has floated uh this viewing sanctions temporary lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil which they actually did beforehand as well. So they could go back in some sort of a reversal as well. I really don't know. Well, and it's also Monday morning, which means Trump may be itching to manipulate the markets. We've got right now, uh, you know, stock futures are down, oil is up.

[00:20:13]Um, the US bond, uh, rates have been going up as well, which is certainly something that he pays a lot of attention to. So, don't be surprised if he gets some new Axios report or whatever. Well, they're close to a deal.

[00:20:24]I did just see a report on Harats that um, Iran submitted some response to the US proposal, but we just showed you how far apart they are. So even if the Iranians are continuing to submit their responses, it hasn't changed from their position of we have won and we plan to consolidate our gains on the battlefield in terms of whatever the this negotiation is. And it just doesn't seem like we're anywhere close to actually coming to terms on a deal.

[00:20:51]>> Yep. Well said. All right, let's move over to econ. Hey, if you like that video, hit the like button or leave a comment below. It really helps get the show to more people. And if you'd like to get the full show ad free and in your inbox every morning, you can sign up at breakingpoints.com.

[00:21:04]>> That's right. Get the full show. Help support the future of independent media at breakingpoints.com.