Finally Peace Replaces Fury: With Israel Out, Can Peace Hold? | The Right Stand | News18

[00:00:00]Meanwhile, after weeks of escalating tensions, there is a finally a glimmer of hope in the Middle East. The good news is that the United States and Iran have reportedly agreed on a peaceou memorandum of understanding expected to be signed on Friday in Geneva. President Donald Trump has announced the immediate lifting of US naval blockade and says the state of Hormoons will reopen once the agreement is signed with free passage guaranteed, but the fog of war has not fully lifted. viewers. Thran remains cautious, signaling that key issues are yet to be settled. The biggest challenge, however, may come within the region itself. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly rejected key elements of the emerging arrangement, particularly those linked to Lebanon and regional security concerns. So, the big question is, has peace finally replaced Fury or is this merely a pause before another round of confrontation? Will this ceasefire really hold? And with Israel reluctant to embrace the emerging framework, can any peace deal truly truly hold?

[00:01:03]Well, we've got Melissa Bell, CNN correspondent live with us. Uh, and she is joining us from Evian in France.

[00:01:10]Melissa, thank you very much. This is Anand here. My first question to you.

[00:01:15]Ahead of G7, will Trump say I've got a deal? Is he going to come about and say, "Look, I'm the big peacemaker." How does America view this announcement?

[00:01:27]That's right, Anan. That is exactly what his message is going to be. And we've had it from the American president several times before. This time though, he arrives and he's just left Jie and is on route now to uh by helicopter with a digitally signed memorandum, not quite in his pocket, but in existence since yesterday. We understand it's been digitally signed ahead of that uh formal signature that will take place here in Geneva on Friday. if nothing derails it uh before then. Crucially though, none of the G7 leaders that President Trump is about to meet have had any eyes on this text of this memorandum. Nobody has. So, we don't know precisely uh what is in it. And that of course in itself is problematic. As is, as you point out, the fact that for Israel, this is a problematic beginning of an agreement.

[00:02:14]We understand that President Prime Minister Netanyahu is under a great deal of pressure both from the right and the left of Israeli politics that he has asked for an urgent meeting with President Trump. Uh that will likely not take place now until the American president is back in Washington. But there is so much still that can go wrong. To your initial question, yes, the American president is very pleased to be arriving here. He would have liked to arrive with a fully signed deal.

[00:02:39]Instead, he has this memorandum and there's going to be a lot of attention on exactly what's inside it. And >> what's the what's the thought process, Melissa, if I may ask? Is the sentiment that America has come away poorer in this deal?

[00:02:53]>> I think uh the world feels that it's come away poorer with this deal. uh as President Obama has been pointing out over the course of the weekend, whatever emerges from these negotiations and whatever the final deal with Iran looks like, it's almost certainly going to be under uh the uh bar that was set by the JCPO and what have been agreed with Iran by President Obama back in 2015. The real trap that the American president has been in has been trying to extricate himself from this crisis uh in a way that allows him to say that the deal is better. There is uh no uh indication yet that any other substantive issues have been discussed or even agreed upon but just the fact that there is a a memorandum will be touted as the president as some measure of success.

[00:03:39]What we need to know now as well and Adam and this is crucial what the orchestration of events will be. The president had initially said well the straight of muse opens immediately. We now understand that only happens after Friday. Uh there are actually more questions that are raised than answered by this. And to your question, uh the rest of the G7 leaders have been going through a considerable bit of anger over the course of the last few months because of how this has left the global economy with the World Bank predicting that global growth will be under what it was uh due to be uh for this year by several uh by by a fairly substantial margin. And of course, it is the usual countries uh those that are least way least well off that are already paying the highest price in this land.

[00:04:23]>> True. And you know there are many nations that are going to point towards America and President Trump for causing them a lot of economic hardship. But one nation said you're going to be my partner. I trusted you but I'm not on board. And that's Israel. Israel is not a signary. They are rejecting some of the aspects and they're a little hurt.

[00:04:40]BB Nathan was already sought a meeting with President Trump post G7. Is that going to hurt the chances of peace if Israel is not on board?

[00:04:51]I think it's almost certainly uh the biggest threat to the beginning of this hopeful moment and and not least because IL Israel maintains its troops a good 10 miles into Lebanon. Uh it has insisted that it does not recognize the ceasefire there that it will continue to defend its interests that it does not believe that Lebanon should be part of any deal between the United States and Tehran.

[00:05:14]And again with a Benin Netanyahu who has is now being attacked by all sides for having really been left aside by the American president on this one. Does President Trump hold firm what happens if the southern suburbs of Beirut are struck over the course of the next few days? That's ultimately not in in his hands. So I think it's going to be a very interesting few days to see what uh sort of sense of measure of uh reticence there can be on the part of Israel uh given what is at stake for them. For them, this has been described in the Israeli press as a terrible deal.

[00:05:46]Netanyahu, they say his critics say, has been really let go by the American presence. So, there's going to be a lot of Israeli pressure at this stage uh that will come both in the f shape of that meeting when it takes place uh but also one can imagine uh militarily.

[00:06:00]Anand >> yes 15th to the 19th 4 days and everybody's sweating about what's going to happen in these four days and then thereafter there are 60 days to negotiate.

[00:06:12]Yeah. Is that too long a period for negotiations?

[00:06:17]>> And a week is a long time in politics.

[00:06:20]Absolutely right. During that 60-day period, so much can happen. And again, the negotiations which will then be very technical about what happens to the enriched uranium, how it is extricated from Iran, what happens to the straight of Hormuz, what happens in Lebanon, Israeli withdrawal. All of these very technical aspects and specifically the ones to do with Iran's nuclear program are going to have to be negotiated in 60 days. It took the JCPOA negotiators more than two years uh to get to a deal on Iran in the context where there was no regional war going on. So it is a fairly tall order and the G7 leaders arriving here are very pleased that there is the beginning of some kind of hope and keen to get involved but also very cautious about the fact that however hopeful and optimistic the American president sounds when he lands uh there are a very few testy days to get through over the next few days and quite rightly you point out over the 60 days of negotiation after that. True. Final question. 4th of July, 250 years of the US uh uh independence.

[00:07:18]That's going to be a big celebration.

[00:07:20]Few months down the line, it's the midterms for Donald Trump. His approvals are heading south. What are the two or three things which are going to push them up northward in this deal?

[00:07:32]>> I think I think he he he needs a resolution for exactly those reasons.

[00:07:37]We've seen him under pressure from within uh his own party. We've seen Congress finally trying uh to seek to act and make its voice heard uh on uh the question of the war there. Uh he absolutely needs to have a deal. And again, going back to that negotiation period of 60 days, uh the Iranians know that there is this electoral pressure on the American president. The midterm's not very far. He needs a deal. you know, by CNN's couch over the course of the last few weeks, he has 38 different times announced that a deal was about to take place and it has not. And I think that speaks to how keen he is to get one, how necessary it is for his electorate, how necessary it is for a big part of MAGA, his own movement that has not been behind uh this effort. I think we we can hear helicopters beginning to arrive to. We believe this this could well be the American president arriving now. But yes, with an awful lot of pressure now on his shoulders and on to get this deal, to get it to stick, to get the rest of the G7 behind him to keep the Israelis on board even before he starts negotiating the substantive stuff with Te.

[00:08:42]>> See how much President Trump loves CNN.

[00:08:44]He's always got to make an entry when CNN's broadcasting any part of the world. So uh so there you go. He's just going to touch down. Uh you are in the middle of the world. So you're saddling Indian time then the American time you are in beautiful Evian hope you get some time to also enjoy the sites while doing such fantastic coverage Melissa really appreciate you making the time thank you so much >> thank you Anand >> right we're going to do a a series of voices getting you different perspectives on this edition of the right stand so there was Melissa Bell right at uh from CNN right at Evian and just as Trump's helicopter opter was going up. The pre presidential helicopter and he was going to touch down. So that's going to happen. We're going to get you those pictures in a bit. Meanwhile, joining us now is Moit Pir, US-based Pakistani journalist, very senior gentleman. Mo, namaste. Thank you for your time. How do you see this that's supposed to be signed on the 19th? Your first take, your thoughts.

[00:09:46]>> Um Anand, thank you so much. Um I think none of the sites is really happy by this memorandum of understanding a deal.

[00:09:53]Um in Iran there is lot of harding that they have suffered a lot and um they didn't even get a fee on the street of homeless uh and and many hardline factions within Iran do not necessarily want to compromise on their right to nuclear enrichment or basically to have a nuclear weapon >> but within United States it has totally dissipated the impression of the American uh superiority of the American weapon systems or the American power in Israel there is a lot of heartburning because none of the objectives which Israel and Netanyahu had set out have been achieved. Uh the Iran's proxies are there. Iran regime is more strengthened than before. Uh its missile capabilities as many Israeli leaders have pointed out it is missile drone capabilities and proxies are not even part of theou.

[00:10:39]They're not even part of the discussion points. Arabs have realized their vulnerability. uh on 28th of February these five or six Arab republics Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, M UAE, uh Qatar, they all basically thought that Iran is going to collapse within 15 days and that's why they sided and allowed their bases to be used and they have been reminded their own you know vulnerability in the whole process. You know, I think the only side that has emerged um unscathed and very victorious out of it is the uh is the military dominated government in uh in Pakistan uh because they have emerged with much more better acceptability and political space in the in the western arena in the regional arena and and a regime has been further strengthened against the democratic forces inside Pakistan. So it's a very interesting situation you know as to the kind of drama that is going to be uh set into motion from Geneva on 19th June.

[00:11:32]But uh let me ask you this. When it comes to Pakistan, how do they get a seat at the table? The Iranians don't trust them. The Saudis are upset with them. The Americans have had enough of them. The Chinese are also upset. How does Pakistan get a seat at the table?

[00:11:48]How do they get to announce the deal and be part of this entire negotiation process?

[00:11:56]Arandi, you know, I'm a great critic of the Pakistani establishment also their victim. you know they registered so many cases against me. So >> uh but you know from professional analysis point of view they have played very smartly.

[00:12:07]>> When all this started uh the debate in the Pakistani intelligencia was that the Pakistani military is going to attack Iran. They were going to provide bases in Pakistani Baluchistan or they're going to set up their bases in Saudi Arabia and they will definitely be pressured by United States to to do something against Iran and they have wisely chosen a role of a mediator uh and they have stuck with the role. Not only this, they have also uh realized that the main elephant uh they can bank on is Saudi Arabia after United States.

[00:12:36]So they played uh they played you know both sides in the sense that they have played their air force uh in Saudi Arabia in a base. They provided 13,000 combat troops to Saudi Arabia to assure the Saudis that look we are with you. At the same time they have told Iranians that please do not make the situation complicated. You know we are on the Saudi side. they have been able to bring moderation in the Saudi position and in the last several weeks Iranians have not attacked the Saudis and Saudis have also stopped their vitriolic uh rhetoric against uh against Iran. So the Pakistani military has somehow or the other it looks to me because I've been following it every single day. This is my bread and butter. They have been able to bring some moderation in both the Iranian and the Saudi position towards each other. They have also been able to plate their own population in intelligencia which was very worried and totally distrusted them and they thought they will become in fact a party to the conflict. Now no one really trusts them.

[00:13:29]That's true. Neither the int Pakistani intelligencia trust them. Iranians also look at them with suspicions. American liberal side has always been very distrustful of them. But they have utilized the space very well. Now everyone else has paid a price. the Pakistanis emerged, the Pakistani regime has has emerged with greater sort of uh political space to maneuver uh and and they're also very reliant on western goodwill and the situation is this that even New York time columnists like Nicholas Kristoff and the others are appreciating they didn't expect Pakistan to play a constructive role. So they have definitely expanded this space. Now how will this you for how long this goodwill will continue? Donald Trump is a very unpredictable character. You don't know what's going to happen after 4 weeks, >> right? We don't know. But Mo Pir, just before you joined us, we had Melissa Bell of CNN announced that Trump's helicopter is just scheduled to land.

[00:14:21]And we're getting those pictures uh where the president of the United States is just going to touch down at Evian. Uh those are I think that's the Apache. And then there was also the big uh two choppers there carrying the entire presidential delegation. We have those pictures. So we'll stay with the pictures, but let's continue the conversation.

[00:14:40]uh in terms of what's going to happen in the Gulf region. and Moir Zada the Gulf monarchies were expecting USIsrael combined to decimate Iran that's not happened and when I say Iran the regime the IRGC and they didn't want a hgeministic challenge in that region coming up at all that doesn't seem to have happened but the IRGC significantly weakened we don't know what's going to happen in the next 6 to 8 months because there is a huge rift internally within Iran they may all have come together against a common outside enemy but there is a lot happening internally in Iran too. So what happens next in this region?

[00:15:19]I this is a you see look this is a billion billion dollar question in the sense that you know if I can accurately predict it I should actually be having stocks and shares in the NASDAQ somewhere I'll write >> the peace is very fragile because of Israel one of the biggest factor is that the Israel the Zionist lobby is very influential uh they got they have got a beating at the moment they're very worried that they have not achieved any of their objectives they have very good working relationship with the UAE with Kuwait and Bahin something might happen uh something might happen from 19 June onwards that might not actually let the 60 days pass without trouble you know >> so we have to see what really happens you know at the moment it looks that United States and Iran will will stick with the deal and will try to take it forward you know >> yeah well they will take it forward even as President Trump touches down 4th of July 250 years of American independence uh then the midterms come in Trump believes what's going to happen uh will Will this be retained in the minds of the American populace 3 4 months down the line or will Trump be able to hold this on to push his approval ratings back up?

[00:16:33]You see the midterms are in in October, November. So midterms are the euphoria is going to continue till 4th of July.

[00:16:40]Trump will ensure this it continues to 4th of July. Some of the biggest questions you know if you have time we can I can dilate upon them are the the nature of the sanctions uh Iran's principal interest is not the nuclear weapons weapons or the nuclear deal >> right >> they have repeatedly been you know able always were ready to compromise on the nuclear thing I mean they they have signed the NPT they have repeatedly said we will never make a nuclear weapon they even persuaded the laai kai and both of them to issue fatwas that we will not make the nuclear weapon then in the joint comprehensive plan of action in 2015 which was more than two-year long protracted negotiation with Obama administration. They had agreed and handed over the enriched uranium at the time which was I think thousands of kilograms and pounds to Russia for dilution. So >> the nuclear is not the issue.

[00:17:29]>> The real issue is this that Iran is potentially the largest economy of the Middle East.

[00:17:34]>> Before the 1979 revolution, Iran was the largest economy. Saudi Arabia was the second economy and it had the largest military capability in the region as well. Will Iran be able to get rid will Trump be able to wave the primary and the secondary sanctions? If Trump is capable, if Iran is manages to get rid of the sanctions, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Europe, United States firms can invest in Iran. If investment can flow into the Iran, Iran will start to become very powerful. This will be totally unacceptable to the powerful Zionist lobby within United States and also to the Israelis. I think this is the principle thing. Also within the next 60 days, I think the Israelis will compel the issue of the Iran's longrange missile system, the drones and the proxies on the table. So these things are going to complicate uh the the outcome of this negotiation, the 60-day.

[00:18:21]>> Well, so it's not going to be easy. The next 60 days are going to be quite turbulent. They're not going to be easy.

[00:18:27]Uh Moit Pir, thank you very much for your time.

[00:18:31]Always a pleasure speaking with him. Uh we'll try and connect with him again through the course of our coverage here uh on CNN News8. not just uh building up to the signing of the negotiation on the 19th viewers but before that the allimportant G7 summit and the bilateral between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi who will be coming back from Slovakia. President Macaron has also done a quick stopover and he's gone for a quick visit even as President Donald Trump touches down at Evvon. That's uh Trump stepping down touching down at Evvon for the G7 summit. is being welcomed uh uh at the summit. There will be the top leaders who will come here and they will all be wanting to discuss what is a deal that President Donald Trump has actually negotiated. So there are two parties uh US and Iran but from the US end there is also the Israeli perspective. So even as Trump walks out uh and is greeted let's also say good evening to Dr. Rafael Ben Levy.

[00:19:33]He's joining us. But Dr. Rafar, uh let's just see if Trump says something. We'll just cut to that and see. Uh he's not said anything to the waiting media. He's just uh not offered a comment and he's just walked off.

[00:19:46]Yeah, he's just walking away. He's not saying much right now. He must have it must have been a long flight and he would want to rest. Uh soon after his birthday, he is back into work. And this is the big deal announced. And now after watching a UFC fight at the White House last evening as part of his birthday celebrations, he's made his way halfway across the world uh right across to touchdown in France. Okay. So Dr. Rafal, thank you for your time. Thank you for your patience. My first question from the US perspective and from the Israeli perspective, is it a good deal?

[00:20:24]Well, uh the question of fairness in international politics is not obviously a clear one. Uh do I think this is a good idea from a let's say first from an American perspective I think that this uh in the bottom line if the deal comes to fruition and and and we should obviously keep in mind that we have not seen the uh the actual deal in writing and there is still remains great gaps between what the United States president is saying is in the deal and what the Iranians are saying is in the deal. So, uh that that remains to be seen. But even if we go with the best possible uh interpretation and that it really reflects what Trump is saying is in the deal, it still reflects a general weakness on this part of the United States. uh that it was not willing to even continue its blade in the the Gulf and that it's willing to apparently release significant amount of economic relief uh to the regime precisely at a time when it is on its uh it's you know on the ropes and uh on the ground and uh and this is both uh going to be a blow to United States standing in the region as well as to the Iranian populace who uh Trump had been promising that, you know, Trump help is on the way and there's going to be a potential for significant change and now they're talking about having a handshake between the vice president and the representative of the IRGC in Switzerland and uh and so from from any that's all from United States perspective. I could also say a word on from Israel's perspective. Yeah. uh we are Israel is uh very not content let's say uh with the deal uh again according to various reporting mainly because Israel again Iran is at its weakest point uh possible and none of the major issues are even even according to Trump there's really just it's it's a temporary deal regarding what happens in the streets of Hormuz that in in in that the United States going to release uh funds uranium funds for this, right? But it's not necessarily going to do anything about the nuclear issue, which is the biggest issue. It is definitely nothing has been said about the missile capabilities, which are a very significant threat to Israel. Uh there is talk of linkage with uh the war in Lebanon, which should have nothing to do with Iran's uh hostile activity in Hormuz. And uh and so for all of those reasons, uh I assess it to be a negative development. Uh that being said, we still must remember that we don't really know the details and it's not signed till it's signed.

[00:23:03]>> Right. But Dr. Rafal Trump also not wanting to say he looked quite grumpy as he got off and he seemed to be very firm in his nose and if he could just read the lips but we check if he did say something to the media just a 10 just a 10-second thing. There was no audio. So we're giving told that there's no audio but it did look like he just said something to the waiting media there before just walking away turning up and walking away. Meanwhile, Qatar, Dr. Rafal spent 17 hours uh their representatives were present there in Thran and then they flew back. Pakistan has also taken credit and has been given credit. Do you believe these entities uh that by default are very hostile against Israel? In fact, they don't even recognize Israel. Them being present at the negotiating table has actually skewed the turf away from the interests of Israel or quered the pitch.

[00:23:56]Yes, absolutely. I mean, if you look at the different camps in uh in the Middle East, uh you have the uh Sunni Islamist uh camp which uh includes both state actors and terrorist actors. But fundamentally, they share the same broader vision of a uh is a as an Islamist Middle East. Middle East dominated by states who are run according to Sharia law and according to the most extreme visions of uh of the traditions of Islam.

[00:24:22]>> And uh both uh Pakistan supports this.

[00:24:26]Qatar supports this with his great amount of resources. Turkey is also on this side. More in the last six months, we've seen Saudi Arabia uh join or take steps to join this uh this side even though it wasn't hadn't been there over the last uh number of years. And uh all of these actors have also been the same ones who supported kamas supported kamas financially. They support them by hosting the leadership of kamas. So while these states such as Qatar and Turkey and Pakistan operate in the international sphere as legitimate states and they are careful to maintain uh proper or uh uh relations with the United States and in their standing they are all using their state power in order to promote the actors who are most hostile to Israel. Not to mention Turkeykey's rhetorical shift over the last months to outright threaten uh Israel and uh and so absolutely I think that the fact that these actors are the moderators uh in between uh the United States and the Shia Islamist camp of Iran uh have definitely uh played a role in in in this outcome which is again is a negative outcome or as much as it's an outcome it's a negative turn of events let's say um uh for across the region >> but Dr. Rafael Ben Levy one one of the Rafael Ben Levy one one of the uh other aspects is Israel's resistance has been or is there has been largely supported propped up by America so eventually many believe Israel can disagree and it can make a lot of noise but you will have to submit to the will of America you will have to listen to what Uncle Sam says so what's the point of trying to create so much of dissonance and say I reject it I don't agree.

[00:26:17]>> Okay. So, uh so there's two sort of sides. Can Israel uh you know withstand American pressure on these issues? Well, again, here we go back to the balance of wills. It's not just a matter of capabilities. Of course, on on big issues where the United States really really felt that its core interests were were at play, then it could bring all kinds of pressure to bear. On the other hand, it's also clear to them that Israel is its ally in the in in in the Middle East. It is also its uh fighting its mutual enemy in the form of >> who itself has uh American blood on its hands and is a sworn enemy of both countries. Correct. And uh and also America is committed to the idea that states should be allowed to defend themselves. And therefore it would be very hardressed to come down with all of its uh pressure on Israel to avoid uh you know just accept this idea that it can be attacked with no consequence and uh and and I couple that with also Israel's determination. Now uh of course there's uh many levels or aspects of dependence and our deep cooperation with the United States. Uh but Israel since its founding has insisted that it will take the steps necessary when it faces uh grave national security threats and that is exactly what poses to Israel.

[00:27:33]Even in the current situation where it has been significantly downgraded, Israel cannot accept this the equation where it can be freely attacked uh with no consequence. And therefore also here there's a balance of wills. Israel is determined to uh to respond and and to to uh and and to uh respond to the attacks that uh um attacks it with. And at the end of the day, Trump will be hardressed to come down with with some sort of with all of his power to uh you know, insist that Israel do not. And therefore uh this is why this is why I'm I'm confident that Israel will continue.

[00:28:07]Also, we have the the last few months a number of times. Again, this was uh very inconvenient for Trump, but Israel insisted on doing it and and and and it did. At the end of the day, I believe it it was more or less coordinated with the administration >> on this for for these very >> and this is something the Israel ambassador to Bhat Ruvenar also said that you know tactically they will have differences because they don't realize what we are facing on ground because they are not facing it themselves but overall strategic goals we are aligned that's what he had said uh Dr. Rafael, thank you for your time. U so Trump is there at Evan in France. Uh where Sadhhat Mishra is on ground, CNN reporters are on ground. President Narendra Modi will also be coming back into France from Slovakia after a very productive visit there. The first prime minister in three decades to go there.

[00:28:56]We continue our coverage. If he