🚨LIVE Trading CPI | Is Trump's WAR Back On?

Ajouté : 2026-05-12

[00:00:12]Good morning everyone.

[00:00:15]How's everybody doing here on CPI Tuesday?

[00:00:20]Markets here are inching back up. We're looking at silver here again. Uh we actually just reloaded this a little bit ago. Uh this is now officially the trade of the year for me here. Um especially after reloading it, but just took another pretty sizable gain on that. Um yeah, I was just mentioning to members a few minutes ago, well about an hour ago now, but you have this kind of setup here on ES.

[00:00:45]Um you know, basically a failed breakdown setup and it was pretty much set to trigger right before CPI, but you can see gold kind of leading the charge a little bit um this morning. had a much firmer structure than the rest of the market. And looking at bonds going into CPI, to me, it was pretty well priced in. I mean, they got hit pretty good.

[00:01:05]You see ZV kind of coming back into some support. And, uh, I noticed right off the bat, um, on a CPI, you got ZT into a little double bottom here, but pretty good bounce there off that with a hot CPI print. So, I think bonds priced it in pretty well ahead of time, and you're seeing the market obviously like that.

[00:01:24]the two-year yield is coming back in.

[00:01:25]And that's important because um if this starts to take off, we're going to be talking about hikes rather than cuts, right? So now, um I think there's some confusion yesterday. Um I'm not saying that they'll start hiking tomorrow. I'm saying I mean, you know, if we go back to 2021 or 2022, you know, like this started taking off, right? And then it, you know, they didn't even get into hikes until it was like way too late, obviously. But um so I mean they could stall it out here but you know I don't know what they this whole like Kevin Worsh thing I'm sure he'll try to fall in line but if this is going higher that means bankers are losing money and they don't lose money. So um it's not a situation oh Kevin wars just going to do whatever Trump wants. No no he's going to do whatever the bankers want and um that's how it's going to work. But nonetheless um it is coming back in and that's helping out the market. dollar is getting a bid, but it's coming off the highs here. And again, that's pushing precious metals up here. I think we're going to 86 on silver. Um, to me, this looks like a bit of a r This looks like we're going to be in, well, maybe a range day here for the market. Um, a lot of that call interest I talked about yesterday is gone. So, just so you know, um, you know, it's not there. It's not there anymore.

[00:02:45]So, if we look at, you know, the S&P here, it's not really I mean, we're starting to get back up there. We got to get through 7420 on the cash, but, you know, it's start it's not as that you saw it yesterday. I believe I showed you really don't have all those uh those right tails anymore. Um on the Q's, same kind of deal. You still have 715, but all that other stuff's gone. Um so, and you're you're now at negative gamma here for the day. negative delta as well. Um, that doesn't mean it can't go higher, but I do think we are getting closer to a pivot of sorts here. And, um, you know, I've been seeing things pretty much every day that kind of suggest that, but again, it's very hard to call a top when you're in this type of environment here. But, um, you know, we're definitely pretty close here.

[00:03:37]So, right now, um, yeah, nice bit on silver there. Again, I I didn't even need to take this trade. I wasn't going to, but I liked the setup. Um, so I just did. And, um, I'm probably not going to take any more trades the rest of the week. I said that yesterday, too. But yeah, WTI over 100.

[00:03:58]Uh, yeah. And that, you know, like I said yesterday, that did put pressure on the market the last time we did that.

[00:04:05]Um, and the market is down today.

[00:04:10]But looks like oil coming in a little.

[00:04:11]We'll see how it reacts at the 100 handle. And that's, you know, pushing up. ES. We got 22 uh just above here.

[00:04:18]Beautiful, beautiful failed break though. So that that could have been a trade as well. Silver obviously had way more yield. Um and that's why I've just been avoiding ES because it's for the birds right now. Until that thing puts it in actual volatility, I have no interest in trading ES here.

[00:04:35]And the way that this is going here, we might make a year salary on silver here.

[00:04:39]If this is going back up to where I think it is, I think SLV wants $80 by the end of the week. But today, I could see it stalling out around 77.

[00:04:50]But very nice, very nice, powerful move there yesterday.

[00:04:55]So, oil coming back in. I was really hoping for that to get down to 95 yesterday. I was I liked that level there, but we never got there. We'll watch the 100 handle.

[00:05:10]We can look at USO Friday. Yeah. So, it looks like we hit 145. That's your LG there. It's had a lot of trouble. Anytime it gets above 145 to 150, it seems that's where they don't really want it to. Seems like that's about where it's, you know, stalled out.

[00:05:34]150 a couple times there. And then we got a 140 coming that we're coming into which should coincide with a 100 bucks.

[00:05:40]So yeah, that might be a trade here, you know. So there's a there's a trade setup I'm just giving out for free here. I'm not going to take it. I'm I'm I'm good.

[00:05:49]But I think it's pretty solid here.

[00:05:54]I'd watch for a sweep though. I'd let that thing sweep first given where it's at right now.

[00:06:05]Interesting. So yeah. So gold was kind of this interesting. So notice like had the higher lows here in gold versus silver which has had the lower lows there and now silver outperforming post CPI even though we had a hotter print.

[00:06:24]See the Russell. Yeah, the Russell not really getting much going with that. So it does seem like the rest the Russell which is closer to like the true market u in many ways is respecting rates. I bet you XHB will respect rates. Yeah, XHB barely up.

[00:06:41]But yeah, NQ for the most part not really caring. Let's see how ETH Bitcoin getting a little bid there holding the 80,0006 area.

[00:07:02]30 year. Not the greatest bounce though.

[00:07:04]not the greatest bounce right now.

[00:07:12]Um, if we do start coming in, I'm watching this trend line as well on the E- mini.

[00:07:18]So, that's going to extend from the April 17th high. Um, and then we we somehow like reaclaimed that rate of ascent, which is just insane. And by the way, um, on the cues, it looks like that, um, that trend line, I think I changed it up. Yeah. So, it's right there.

[00:07:36]But that trend line, uh, it looks like that's going to hold, or at least it's holding now. We're down $5. We're down a whopping $5 premarket.

[00:07:48]Um, SMH set right now to gap below yesterday's low. So, that would be interesting. We have not seen that on the way up. I think that's pretty that's about as good of a topping signal as you're going to get.

[00:08:05]because that kind of gives you an island. It still could buy the dip here, but I mean that does signal usually like usually once you when you're up this much um usually the first sign of weakness is kind of it usually doesn't like get through that I guess is what I'm trying to say. You know, I might we might get a you know, we might carve out a range into OPEX, which is what I was kind of thinking this week would be, but you see the Cosby here. Nice reversal there engulfing.

[00:08:36]So, Asian markets coming a little bit.

[00:08:39]Hang segments down. Nothing terrible, but Sensex got hit. Nifty DX came in.

[00:08:59]Yeah, it totally gets another free 5%.

[00:09:01]Yeah.

[00:09:03]Yeah.

[00:09:08]Oh, there's there's my thing happening there.

[00:09:15]That never used to happen. Now it happens all the time. So, watch that.

[00:09:19]Watch that low. uh 56680.

[00:09:23]That's where we're set to open. But yeah, we can see I can see us carving out a range here um to the end of the week.

[00:09:34]We're coming in just a little bit here.

[00:09:39]Dollar holding up. Oil should go and test 100 right now.

[00:09:47]So, I would keep an eye on that. Didn't quite get to my second target on silver, so I think it should try that shortly.

[00:09:58]And uh no dice on the 30K. I don't really think 30K is that important for NQ because a it's the futures.

[00:10:04]Um and I don't think Trump looks at that. I think he looks at the Dow, which is what the general populace looks at.

[00:10:12]Um, but B, like the composite is what the general populace would look at. Um, and that's at like 26. So that's still like a ways away from even the NDX, you know, I guess like it's Yeah, I guess you could say NDX is closer to 30K, but we'll see here. Um, yeah, suddenly starting to grind up.

[00:10:44]That should take silver up with our second target there. So, right there, 22.

[00:10:49]Um, looks like we broke out of it. There was also like a falling wedge here, too, on the on the hourly.

[00:10:58]Starting to break up now.

[00:11:05]Not bad.

[00:11:08]Yeah, 22 and then what? Like 32 33. I don't know if we're going to go much past that though. That's our LG one for the day. So, but if we lose that, watch that trend line down there.

[00:11:21]Keep an eye on oil at 100. I would watch that for sweeps, though.

[00:11:30]They did they did save that at at four.

[00:11:33]I wouldn't say that's pumping. It's like flat.

[00:11:37]But they did save that at 410 yesterday because I did not really like how that was looking. It does look It did look better by the close if I'm not mistaken.

[00:11:52]Yeah, it definitely firmed up. Yeah. So, Micro Stunk looks a little bit better than it did yesterday. It looked like it wasn't even ever going to get above 410 all week. So, it definitely looks a little bit better now.

[00:12:05]The Apple still acting pretty well here too.

[00:12:09]Fractionally lower here.

[00:12:12]NVDA down on a dollar about 50 cents.

[00:12:21]So anyway, we'll see what we get here.

[00:12:22]Um yeah, look for oil at 100.

[00:12:27]That's all I'm looking at right now, though. But uh yeah, pretty good stuff.

[00:12:33]EPCPI day. See if this leads to any sort of uh temporary top.

[00:12:42]So anyway, you guys take care. Have a good one and we'll see you guys all in the afternoon