Dual Big Eruptions, a Glancing Blow & More to Come | Solar Storm Forecast 12 May 2026

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]We have some big flare players, a glancing solar storm blow, and a 360 degree view of some big events. Those stories and more are in the news this week.

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[00:00:58]Space weather this week is picking up in a big way. As we take a look at our Earth-facing disc, we do have a lot of active regions and some coronal holes kind of scattered about, but that's not what's taking center stage. If you focus your eyes on the east limb, you can watch a really big region rotate into Earth view. Bam. Right there. You could see it launch a very large solar storm and solar flare. This gave us, I think, an R1 level radio blackout, but we did get an R2 level radio blackout on the 10th. I'll show that in a second. This is a region that uh was building near old region 4419 on the far side. Solar Orbiter's been watching it quite closely, and we'll talk more about that.

[00:01:34]But, but as it continued to get more and more active, you can see it spitting fire here. We could tell that it was actually near a big coronal hole, which is part of why it was a bit more unstable. By the 10th, it fires off a very large solar flare. This is an an M5.8 class flare. You can watch it right there. Bam. That was on the 10th. That's the anniversary of the Ganon storm a couple of years ago. So, the sun is kind of celebrating, I guess. But this storm is not headed toward Earth. It's definitely going east of Earth. You can watch it's actually quite big because you can see how far that ribbon just teared all the way down to the edge there. As we take a look in coronagraphs, you can look at this thing. What a big almost full halo we can see. Most of this however material this is this is the material from the from the bulk of the of the storm being launched. It's mainly going to go to the east of Earth right here. This however is really the shock wave from this structure. And this will actually hit Earth, but it's probably not going to give us all that big of a storm. In fact, as we continue watching this, it's pretty clear as it unfolds. If I if I show you, you can see a little filament launch right there. But if I back this up and show you where that coronal hole is, you'll see why I don't think that we're even going to get much of a glancing blow at, if anything at all.

[00:02:47]So, here's that coronal hole. Okay, I've changed colors so that you can see it a little bit better. Watch when this thing erupts. You're going to see this chronal hole kind of get carved out a little bit on this side and then it will begin to fill back in, but it will not fill back in nearly as much as it already is right here. So, it shows you that that fast solar wind is really strong and it's not letting that chronal hole close back up.

[00:03:09]Watch as it blows right here. You can see it right there. See how far carved out that coronal hole got? Now, watch as it fills in here. Watch. See it fill in?

[00:03:18]but it really still has a lots of space between it and that field line, which is more space than what it had prior to the eruption. So, this tells you that the fast solar wind coming from this coronal hole is very strong, and it's not going to let that solar storm and that that material get past it. So, likely any storming we're going to see here at Earth is going to be due to the fast solar wind, not likely from this big solar storm. If we get a little glancing blow, it'd be nice, but it's pretty much like a brick wall at this point.

[00:03:47]However, this region is going to be rotating into the Earth strike zone here over the next couple days. And although it is quieted down a little bit, it's still a big flare player and therefore a a big solar storm producer or potential solar storm producer. So, Aurora photographers, keep your eyes peeled for this over the next week or so because we might get on top of that fast solar wind, we might also get another solar storm launch.

[00:04:14]And now returning to that view from Solar Orbiter that I talked about earlier. I have Solar Orbiter high-res data here in blue. But let me orient you first with looking at our orbit circle here. You see, here's Earth, here's the sun, and here's Solar Orbiter staring at the sun from the far side, but really along the east limb of the far side. So when we take a look at what Solar Orbiter sees, this right here is region 4436 before it rotated into Earth view.

[00:04:40]You can see old region 4419 and 20 kind of dying here. But we can watch if I back this up just a little bit. You can actually look at this region. Pow. Right there. That was back on the late on the 7th and into the eth. That was that first big eruption. So, this region has actually been giving us some trouble and been growing quite a bit even on the sun's far side. One of the things I want you to also pay attention to are a couple regions in here. Look at this one growing quite quickly. This cluster of regions is region 44, 20, 23, and 26.

[00:05:08]So, we're going to keep our eyes on this set as well. You can also see a big uh coronal hole up there. there. It's kind of hard to tell in this color, but you'll I want you to keep that in mind because that's going to orient you when I get to Stereo's data. But meanwhile, as we get back to right about the 10th, you can see this right here. Watch this region. It'll give us that big eruption.

[00:05:27]Boom. Right there. That was the M5.8 class flare with the big solar storm launch. So, Solar Orbiter saw this from the from the far side while Solar uh Solar Dynamics Observatory saw it from the front side. So, we've got multiple angles from the far side and the front side that we saw this particular eruption, which is really nice to have multiple orbiters all around the sun.

[00:05:47]So, okay. So, here's that coronal hole I mentioned. Watch this. So, as that as you see that coronal hole, that's this coronal hole. As we rotate now to stereo A's angle. So, let's go back to our orbit circle. You can see here is Earth.

[00:06:00]Here's the sun. And now here's Stereo A kind of on the front side, but staring a bit on the far side, just a little bit, but from the west limb now. So now what Solar Orbiter saw on the very edge on the east side, now Solar uh um Stereo A is seeing it from the west side. And why I wanted to orient you that way is we're going to take a look and we're going to put it all together in the full sun map.

[00:06:23]But here's another cluster of regions I want you to pay attention to. Region 4429 is rotating off of the Earth-facing disc right now. Region 4431 is still there, but take a look. You're actually seeing quite a bit of activity. There's been some maybe an uh enlargement of this particular coronal hole. Once again, dynamics between coronal holes and active regions right now is a big deal. So, we're watching this cluster here on the front side on the west side.

[00:06:50]We're watching another cluster of regions on the east side. So, there's a lot of activity all the way around the sun. And now we're going to put it together with our full sun map so that you can see it all together and we'll get an idea of really what we're looking at here. Okay, here is the full sun map.

[00:07:06]I've got the same orbit circle. You can see here's Earth. Here's the sun. Stereo A and Solar Orbiter. I'm not able to show stereo A in the full sun map. So, everything yellow here, this is the JOC HMI helioisymology far-sighted viewer and it's going to have to take the place of stereo A at the moment. Most of the view of the of the whole sun is covered by SD AIA. This is on the earth's side.

[00:07:28]This is the um uh front side of the sun.

[00:07:30]Of course, solar orbiters in blue on the far side. You can see these were some of the this is uh the old region 40 uh 4419 and 4420. Oh, it's 4422. You can see this right here is going to be labeled 4436 as it rotates into Earth view. Um and then let's see. You can see, look at look how much it's growing. You can also see region 4426 as it begins to really grow and pick up as well. So watch this.

[00:07:58]This gets you oriented. So now there's region 4436. Look at region 4426. This is the next big region that's going to rotate into Earth view. It's also going to be a big flare player. So, amateur radio operators and emergency responders, you've got about maybe 3 days of a grace period between when this region 4436 as it's rotated into Earth view to the next big region rotating into Earth View. So, things are probably going to quiet down just a little bit before they get active. We've also got another big region here growing. Okay, so that one actually might give us a bit more activity, but you can see we've got multiple clusters that are going to be coming into Earth view, keeping those radio blackouts up at probably the R1 to R2 level over the next maybe week or so before things calm down maybe just a little bit. But as we ro as we take a look at these regions that are now going to the sun's far side, well, there's still a lot of activity. You can even see region 4432 firing off a big one here just as that cluster is rotating to the sun's far side. So it looks like all the way around the sun, we've got some decent activity and things are going to stay that way. And now switching to our solar storm prediction model, ENL, this is Noah's version of the model. The top panel's density, the bottom panel's velocity. You're looking down at the sun from the north pole with Earth being off to the right. and we're going to set this solar storm model in motion so you get an idea of the solar storms that have been launched off of the sun's east limb. Here you go. You're going to watch. It's kind of a a two-parter.

[00:09:25]You've got what the fast one that was launched and then a slower one that was launched later. This thing is clearly not going to hit Earth. You can see even though we do have a bit of a shock wave that's coming this way, but you can see some fast solar wind. This is just the tip of the of the spear, so to speak, of that fast solar wind. Does it from from Noah's perspective, it really doesn't look like we're going to get anything from that first uh uh solar storm hitting us. It likely is going to be they've got basically that fast solar wind, the kind of peak from the fast solar wind hitting Earth right about midday on the 14th. So, h from so from Noah's perspective, it doesn't look like that solar storm is going to give a photographers any chances at all.

[00:10:05]However, as we continue and flip over to uh NASA's version of the model, let's see if it goes. Okay, there we go.

[00:10:12]Again, you're looking down at the sun from the north pole with Earth being off to the right. NASA has, as I put this in motion, NASA has a much faster launch for this solar storm. Whoosh. Right here. You can see it right there. And as it Let's see if I let it go a little bit further. There we go. You can see that obviously the solar storm is angled just a little bit more uh earthdirected than it was at Noah's perspective. But we really aren't going to get a lot of that material. Again, it's kind of lining up with that big stream, that fast solar wind stream, uh, kind of bow wave that comes in front of it. We call it the stream interaction region. But Noah or NASA has some kind of impact hitting us right about the uh, early on the 13th.

[00:10:51]So, well, if we get an impact, it's probably not going to be all that strong. We're likely going to be waiting for that big fast solar wind that's not going to hit us until about the 15th, but we could get a little bit of a bump up sometime on the 13th. So, aurora photographers, if you're at high latitudes, you might get a little bit of a show. It's a little hard to tell at the moment, but if you're dedicated, perhaps it'll be worth a look. And now, switching to our moon, we are passing through the third quarter phase on our way through a new moon with the new moon being on the 16th. And by the 18th, the moon will only be about 4 and a half% illuminated. So, night sky watchers, if you want to catch some dim objects in the sky, like, I don't know, maybe some aurora from a glancing solar storm blow, well, now is your perfect chance.

[00:11:34]And now, switching to our solar storm conditions and aurora possibilities over the coming week. We are expecting that glancing solar storm blow from the solar storm that was launched back on the 10th. At high latitudes, Noah is expecting minor storm conditions on the 13th with up to about a 50% chance of a major storm. H. But remember, take this with a grain of salt. After that, we're going to be expecting to look for some fast solar wind. We might get a little bit from one coronal hole that's kind of a very small one that's a little bit south of the ecliptic plane. We shall see if we get a little bit from that.

[00:12:06]But then after that, right about the 15th and the 16th, expect the big fast solar wind from that massive coronal hole to rotate in through the Earth strike zone. And that could give us some decent show. We could easily reach minor storm, if not major storm conditions by the 16th or so. So, aurora photographers, this week is a great week to look for aurora. You should have multiple chances to chase. Now, at mid latitudes, we're only expecting unsettled conditions. Even with that bump up from that glancing solar storm blow, but we do have about a 40% chance of active conditions on the 13th. But aurora photographers, only if you're dedicated should you chase at least at that period because you're likely going to be chasing substorm brightenings.

[00:12:49]After that, we might get some fast solar winds starting around the 15th. Again, we could have about a 10% chance of minor storm conditions with that bumping up to being probably minor storm conditions by around the 16th. So, if you're patient, then you could wait for that. Of course, we always are looking for more solar storms to launch. And with region 4436, that is a distinct possibility. So these forecasts could change in a heartbeat.

[00:13:14]And now switching to our solar flare and dayside radio blackout outlook over the coming week. We are sitting about the 115 for solar flux right now on Earth's dayside. That means we got some good propagation. We are having a moderate noise level on the bands. That is dropping just a little bit for you amateur radio operators. Noah's giving us about a 45% chance of M-class flares at the R1 to R2 level radio blackout and also about a 10% chance of X-class flares, but that's going to be diminishing here over the next few days.

[00:13:44]I've kind of pushed that out through the 5-day, likely by about the 15th, we're going to be down in that lull. We might even reach minor noise, which would be a nice little bit of a reprieve. It all depends upon what region 4436 does. But then we've got those new regions that are going to be rotating into Earth view here, the latter part of this week into next week. So, amateur radio operators, emergency responders, expect the noise is not going to go away and that we still do have a risk for R1 to R2 level radio blackouts over this week and things should get a little bit better.

[00:14:14]Now, as we switch to our radiation storm and polar aviation outlook over the coming week, everything is in the green when it comes to radiation storms. We're sitting at the D1 normal range. This is at flight level 360 for you aviators.

[00:14:26]It's also the S0 quiet range for everyone else. We've got about a 10% chance of an S1 to S2 radiation storm right at the moment. That's going to drop down to about a 5% risk. Doesn't look like region 4436 is really going to fire any big radiation storms at us. So you frequent flyers, and this does include air crew and you high-risisk passengers, it looks like you're all in the clear this week, but start paying attention around Friday to Saturday of this week because things could risk the risk could rise once again. And pay attention to those IOU advisories. uh so you always know what to have uh planned in your flight plans.

[00:15:03]So the space weather this week is picking up quite a bit. We do have that fast solar wind along with the uh glancing solar blow that's going to hit Earth here starting around the 13th.

[00:15:13]Aurora photographers at high latitudes, you might get a little bit of a bump up.

[00:15:17]So aurora might be fun. Aurora photographers at mid latitudes, well, you might have to wait till the 15th or 16th to get that bigger blast of fast solar wind before you see a good chance of chasing aurora. So, please be patient. Now, amateur radio operators and emergency responders, well, ART one to AR2 level radio blackouts are likely going to continue to be on the menu this week. Radio propagation on Earth's dayside is good, but you are dealing with some moderate noise. That will quiet down over the next couple days, but then it'll probably pick up as we hit the weekend because new regions are going to be rotating into Earth view.

[00:15:50]So, kind of hunker down and and bear it because things are going to be a little bit bumpy for a while. And now you GPS users, well, right now things aren't too bad. At least on the night side, you're not going to have too much to deal with in terms of big solar storms, at least not yet. But right around the weekend, things could get a little bit worse for you. So, you know, stay vigilant near dawn and near dusk and near anywhere near aurora and your GPS reception should be me pretty good. I'm Tampa, the space weather woman. Thank you for watching.