Who Charted? Ep. 73 | No Roar in These Bears (May 26, 2026)

本站添加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:13]Okay, good morning everybody. Welcome to another episode of Who Charted. Uh recording on a Tuesday this week due to the 3-day weekend. Hope everybody had a good Memorial Day weekend and enjoyed the time with family and friends.

[00:00:28]Unfortunately, the weather both in New York and here in DC was awful, but we made the best of it uh either way. So, uh diving right back in and you know, I'm reminded um I'm doing a lot of touristy things around DC, which is normally not like me, but I wanted to go to the zoo. So, recently we went to the zoo to see the giant pandas, and I was hoping to catch the pandas out in the wild or out in their fields. Uh unfortunately, that was not the case.

[00:00:54]They were inside eating, right? Right.

[00:00:56]And these big bears are just laying on these big piles of bamboo eating and they look like the gentle, I guess, cutest things I've ever seen. Right.

[00:01:04]Kind of reminds me of the bears in the market recently.

[00:01:08]All cuddle, no roar. Okay, let's dive right into it. They had their chance.

[00:01:14]Remember, we talked last week about the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, some indecision candles. First time in a while that neither of those indices closed at the top end of their range, right? They had an opportunity somewhat extended from the moving averages, right? There was a shot there, right? Breath was starting to weaken, right? We talked about that.

[00:01:35]We come in last week. S&P 500 closes higher for now an eighth consecutive week. NASDAQ 100 closes higher for seven out of the past eight weeks. All right.

[00:01:47]All of this playing out above steadily rising 60-week moving averages. So, for all intents and purposes, the trend is up. And the trend was always up, right?

[00:01:57]But if you're a bear, you kind of had your opportunity or at least the makings of an opportunity, but you just chose not to roar. Okay? And we can talk about why that is. We'll get into it in a little while, but let's first check in on these breath metrics. Remember last week we were talking about the fact that the 5-day moving average of decliners on the NYSE was trending higher. That trend completely broke last week, right? Same thing with this trend in NYC new lows.

[00:02:26]Remember, I made a big deal out of going and getting the Fspec book. I guess if you haven't gotten it, you can put it on hold right now unless you want some light summer reading. NYSE decliners now heading lower on the week. New lows on the NYSE also falling off a cliff, right? So, the opportunity for the Bears to take control was there. They dropped the ball, right? They refused to roar.

[00:02:49]And this the title of the note this week and everything you need to know. These are not raging bears. They're cuddly cute little giant pandas is what it seems like to me. Right. The breath actually improved. Don't have the chart of the mag 7 in here. The mag 7 is also holding near its record levels. Right?

[00:03:09]So you've got broad participation and leadership on the part of the generals.

[00:03:14]Right? That is a healthy market environment. And if we kind of hone in now, 27we moving averages for the transports and the semiconductors.

[00:03:22]Remember the transports are a big part of our work. We riff on Dow theory. We look for confirmation to the broader market from strength in the transports.

[00:03:32]We had that whole Avis budget debacle, right, where briefly Avis was the most important transportation company in the United States. I don't think anybody really believes that that's true. We've quickly rebound here. Let's look at what has happened over the past 3 weeks for the transports.

[00:03:49]These two candles for candlestick dorks are known as hammers. They essentially look like a hammer where the body is at the top of the candle, right? If we think about this psychologically, what happened here is the bears tried to take control, right? They tried to push the transports lower and then the bulls quickly rebounded, took control so that for the week the transports would close near the top end of that range. So that happened two consecutive weeks and then last week we get this explosive candle to the upside, right? All else being equal, this trend is still intact. Did it get a little extended on that whole Avis thing? Yes, it did. But we are well above a rising 27-w week moving average.

[00:04:34]So old school Dow theory concepts still holding while at the same time our idea of modern Dow theory paying attention to what the semiconductors are doing. Go back and check out the podcast that we did with the team from Van Ec talking about semiconductors. Right?

[00:04:54]This is an absolute monster of a trend accelerating to the upside.

[00:05:00]Closed near the top of the range last week. So whether you're using Dow theory concepts or modern Dow theory concepts, we use the top. Both are sending the same message that there is an intermarket confirmation to the strength in equities, right? And the bears again had their chance and dropped the ball. Finally, I'm going to leave you with the volatility index or the VIX, right? The S&P 500 volatility index after a brief spike back in the spring has been trending lower. Now, back below 17, right? So, roughly the market is pricing in about a 1% move daytoday for the S&P 500 over the next that's a horrible percentage sign over the next month of trading.

[00:05:51]This is important, right? Obviously, it is showing a lack of fear in the market, but it is also important for another reason that's not directly tied to what we do here, but I wanted to comment on it briefly. We have high profile IPOs in the pipeline, and by we, I mean investors, the market, right?

[00:06:15]IPOs tend to get out of the gate and do well with a lower VIX, right? IPOs have a tough time pricing if you're looking at a VIX in the 20s or pushing up near 30.

[00:06:27]A lot of that's when you see deals get pulled, right? So, with a lower VIX trending down below 17 into the mid- teens, that is a healthier environment for IPOs to get out the door. I'm not saying they're going to trade well. I don't have a read. It's not really what I do anymore, but from past experience, I know the lower the VIX, the more likely big IPOs are to price and get out the door. How they trade after that is a different story, but it's just something I wanted to pay attention to. So, it seems to me that there is a persistent bid to the market. We I'm talking here about the fact that the bears can't take control. They're more like cuddly pandas than, you know, vicious black bears or brown bears. And I think what's happening here and I think what's playing out is you have a passive bid to the market. We all know that passive has become a much larger part of the market.

[00:07:18]So the question for bears is what changes that? What is the catalyst that alleviates that passive bid? And if I if you kind of had ask me what I think my two cents a recession tied to job losses that interrupts the steady flow of capital into passive funds. Right now that appears to be a low probability event for us. We are going to continue to follow our process, follow our systems and our composite model. But these are just some of the questions that we get throughout the week. You know, some of the things that we like to read and talk about. So, I figured I'd bring it up here. Hope everybody has a great short week. We will be back to you next Monday. Be well.