China’s Silver Grab: Watching the Critical $95 Level for a Squeeze

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]What's driving silver right now? What are the key levels? What's the absolute key level moving forward? And is there potential for another short squeeze?

[00:00:08]Well, stay tuned cuz I'm going to get to that really quickly. Okay, so the key level in silver, it's clearly resistance at $95. Let me tell you why. That is what we are seeing on all of the charts.

[00:00:20]That's what it means. And what that means is we're seeing that on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. And this is an important technical analysis tidbit and helper for you. When you're analyzing something, look at multiple time frames. Again, that means the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. So, starting off here, I am showing you the weekly candle chart here and the monthly candle chart here. And it's proving my point about resistance at $95 an ounce.

[00:00:45]So, we can see here, here's the weekly chart, and support is now at $72. Why do I say that? Well, look at these bounces off of 72. You have there you have a bounce off 73 or 74 and again here a bounce off 70 here another bounce off 72. So you had this bullish hammer then a strong candle and another strong candle that solidifies the support here around $72 an ounce. Now this strength and pushing above the key level at 81 which we will see on the daily chart next means that silver has a shot to continue higher to that resistance. Now here's the monthly chart. What do we see? big clear obvious resistance here, $95. So again, for the third or fourth time, $95 is the key resistance level moving forward. Now, moving on, let's get to the more shortterm or midterm here with a daily candle chart for silver. Now, let's start with resistance. So, this is a resistance level right here, and this comes to about $88 an ounce.

[00:01:47]So, we have $88 an ounce. Then we have this level here which I believe is 93.

[00:01:52]So on the daily chart we're looking at $88.93.

[00:01:56]Spot silver itself hanging around $87 an ounce. So this strength could stop at 88 or maybe it stops at $93 here because we know significant resistance at 95. Now again support levels. This was a key breakthrough here yesterday $81. This was a a very important level here. So, silver broke through it solidly and that means that now $81 is your support and you also have support at 78 here which I did not pencil in but also 75. So those are the key levels as we move forward. Now ultimately whenever we do see silver break through this resistance here that is going to set up a potential large cup pattern like that. Now that doesn't mean it's imminent. So that $95 resistance maybe it breaks out in 2 months or 7 months. I don't know. My guess would be probably somewhere in between as far as time. Now for who's buying and why and if there's a potential short squeeze coming, I give you my discussion with the great Vince Lansancy. Back with us for our usual monthly chat. we took a break last month is Vince Lansancy, publisher and editor of the great gold fix on Substack as well as I should say he's a adjunct professor of corporate finance at the University of Connecticut. And Vince, I don't know what you're thinking about these markets, but silver for me is the story right now. I think my words we're in an intermediate term correction but in secular bull markets and precious metals what happens and also and especially with silver and sometimes with gold you get the low in price really quickly. In other words, you hit an important peak, you have a correction and the majority of the price damage is done really quickly. And now it definitely looks like that's the case with silver. I don't want to rule it out for gold completely, but to me that's where we are. And silver, the gold silver ratio or silver versus gold is showing multiple positive divergences. And as we're speaking, it was yesterday where silver broke through $81, which is a key level. And for me, moving forward, the real key is $95, which is daily, weekly, and monthly resistance. So to me, that's going to be a ceiling near-term. But inevitably, Vince, when we break that, Silver could be off to the races again.

[00:04:22]I'm not saying it's imminent, but I know there was a long preamble, but where do you want to go with that?

[00:04:28]>> No, that's fine. That's fine. You you left a couple good things in there to talk about. One was one was I mean, I'm I'm not going any particular order, but your comment about the gold silver ratio, you know, that's kind of interesting. Even while the markets were, you know, gyrating around near their lows, the gold silver ratio was stable, silver wasn't dropping 10% when gold dropped 5%. They were neck and neck. And so the gold silver ratio stabilized at a weaker level and now is swooning, it would seem, towards the 50 area, especially after yesterday's move and today's recovery. The other thing you said was how these markets make their lows rather quickly. Well, this is what happened in 74, I think, with gold, right?

[00:05:15]That's that's what you were you were alluding to earlier.

[00:05:17]>> I think 1973, but also in 2000 2006 as well.

[00:05:22]>> 73 and 2006. That's what I mean, right?

[00:05:25]Those are those are the two time frames.

[00:05:27]That's when you had a a deep dive and then a a sideways consolidation retesting but never actually capitulating on the lows. So yeah, I think I think it's it's more like to your point to your other point, it's more obvious in silver than it is in gold, but it is becoming obvious in all the precious metals, even platinum. So I agree with you. There's a couple things in the market, but I think I think you're right. We should we should focus on silver because that's where the action is right now. Yesterday we were up what 6%.

[00:06:01]Today we were down >> even more even more than that >> if I recall correctly.

[00:06:06]>> Well, you probably you're on you probably looked at futures. So it was definitely more than 6% if it was in futures.

[00:06:13]>> Futures will will overperform in a rally. And then today we were down two and a half% on the lows, almost 3%.

[00:06:21]And now we're unchanged or higher. Are we higher down?

[00:06:25]>> Yeah, we're higher on both futures and spot.

[00:06:31]>> That's good. So it looks like there's a problem if you look at the metals. Well, I mean, first of all, the metal that started this is copper. I wouldn't say I wouldn't say copper started it, but copper is the one that most clearly broke out. I think I think you you were talking about that before. Do you have any levels in copper that you wanted to address?

[00:06:51]>> Well, I I'll throw up a chart in post-prouction, but if you look at copper and if you look at a monthly chart, it did have a breakout. I want to say December, January, it did have a breakout on the monthly, but then it pulled back and corrected. And so a and now copper of course in the last week or two has has confir you know it successfully retested that breakout but now it's made a new high. So that technically that's super bullish. In other words you get a breakout from a long base and there's two things that can happen.

[00:07:22]The market can just shoot up really high which is what silver did you know several months ago. Or the market can move up a little bit. It does a retest.

[00:07:31]It's successful. Then it makes a new high. Then it really heats up. So copper is following that pattern where it broke out retest and then successful retest and then higher high. So copper in the last week or so it's made that higher high. Super bullish looking chart and you know we like to be conservative here Vince but there's a real shot that silver could shoot up a couple more bucks here over the coming months. I mean technically it's in position for that. Well, I have I have I work with with Sumo and I use his product Poly and Poly Trends and been using it to compare with my own analysis and I had us when we broke I think 73 going to 80 and that happened and then breaking 80 the market should not have a problem going to for me 88. That's the top of that's that's where we broke down before. Not the very top of where we broke down before, but I think a significant spot where we broke down before. Then above that, I have 93 and change. Now, my 93 and change may as well be 95, which is your number. So, we'll just round it up to 95. But >> this all cut in for five seconds. All the numbers you mentioned, those are exactly my resistance levels. 88 90 to 93.

[00:08:46]>> Okay. Good. Good. That's that's that's good to know. Or or bad to know if we don't get through them. But let's just hope let's just hope that we we misery loves company. But I think I think above for me I didn't have my numbers are always a little bit different than yours. But but I think that's because I'm using spot and use futures. So I have 80 in spot. You have 81 in futures.

[00:09:07]I think >> I was looking I was looking at spot actually but >> Oh okay. Okay.

[00:09:11]>> Continue.

[00:09:12]>> Well there you go. So for me from 80 when when it cracked yesterday I said when it cracked 80 when it cracked 80 I said we're going to go to 88 and uh or look out for 90 is what I said next but uh which is just a you know wise ass snarky statement but there there there is the reason I'm bringing these numbers up first is because there's there's there's something going on out of China and I would say that it's probably not in the mainstream at all. It's probably not even it's not even it's not even in the in the mainstream silver and precious metals people. So, we could just say that we're actually kind of breaking it. But Zero Edge had a post out today and it was a coverage of a UBS report. And the UBS report basically says that UBS says that recent strength and volatility in the silver market is being driven by tightening delivery conditions, shifting metal flows and confusion surrounding US trade policy. So the bank is arguing that the market has become increasingly sensitive because inventories in New York have declined while China has rapidly increased silver imports. Now I'm just reading off of a paragraph that I had there on a post that I put out as well. But I think I think what what the UBS report said in general I think is is is very informative to people that are interested in the the nitty-gritty is that is that China turned importer of silver. Now, I mean, they've always been an importer of silver, but China really turned voracious importer of silver.

[00:10:43]They imported roughly 520 tons in March alone, which is the largest monthly inflow in, you know, over 20 years, probably forever, but we'll call it we'll call it 20 years. Now, that shift from exporter to importer has effectively turned China into a a sinkhole for global silver supply. And at the same time, silver inventories on the CME in New York have been falling under last year's tariff driven stock build reversed. So you have China pulling silver from the US. That's what's going on. And that imbalance is somehow running into a constraint in the US. I think some of the players with registered and eligible silver in the vault are reticent to let it go now. And so I think we're running into a little bit of a I wouldn't call it a squeeze yet, but I would say we have a a venue problem. There's silver in China.

[00:11:39]China's not exporting anymore. And we have silver here and they want it over there again. And this is coming up in a timely fashion. It's coming up at the same time that Trump is sitting down with Xi, which is I think you said the 14th.

[00:11:53]>> Yes.

[00:11:54]>> Yeah. So while that if that's part of the discussion and silver would be part of the discussion because of section 301. So without getting without going down a rabbit hole here essentially when if we were to tariff China and really get aggressive with China, it's quite possible we could impose something called section 301, which means that the silver that they that that we have of theirs, we're not allowed to have. kind of like what we did with Russia. And so we'd have to swap our silver out for non-China silver. We're basically cutting off tra if trade deteriorates worse with China, then we won't be able to even buy Chinese silver anymore. And that's weighing on the market because a lot of the silver left potentially in the vaults now is is of Chinese origin.

[00:12:45]And if that's the case, then we can't even use it for export. So there's a little bit of a venue squeeze going on right now. that means we're going to have another one of those musical chairs for silver. So that's the fundamental side of what's going on. It's a little bit convoluted the way I said it, but that's because it's it's just developing now. It's it's coming on right now. But as a result of all this basis spreads, which are spreads between nations, and EFPs have become more volatile, contributing to short-term upward pressure in spot silver. Uh UBS UBS believes that the tightness is likely temporary rather than structural.

[00:13:24]I believe it's structural rather than temporary, but that's their job to say that since broader market demand outside of China still appears relatively weak, but I don't know how much longer that's going to sit. So I I guess what I'm saying is once again, the fundamental picture is supporting the technical picture. This wasn't happening two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, we didn't have any of this. Now, it's happening again. So, I think we have a situation where the fundamentals are lining up for another little bit of a of a venue squeeze on on the on the COMX, running out of silver as it's being pulled into China, and China's no longer exporting silver. So, long story long, that's it.

[00:14:08]>> Yeah. I had two follow-ups on that. The first would be, and they're they're related. The first would be how how I mean that the fundamental drivers that you're talking about. How long could those last? Is it like a couple months or longer? And then what what fundamentals I mean I know this can be a ridiculous question because you never can predict it but what fundamentals do you think are needed if any new ones to get silver to break through 95 which may I mean it's it's probably you know at least several months away in my opinion.

[00:14:38]>> Yeah.

[00:14:38]>> So yeah those are my two follow-ups.

[00:14:40]Well, the the the the the first followup, how long would something like this last? Well, it's funny that that's that's the right question to ask because if you read the UBS analysis, which is quite good, you get the impression that this is less than a month.

[00:14:59]It's it's whatever it takes to sort out the tariff thing. And it could end it could end on the 15th when when G and Trump are done. It could end right then and there, right? But if it but since Trump tends to have more open-ended problems than clo than than resolved problems, I would think that after the 15th, there's still going to be a lot of questions and it could last for anywhere from 20 days to 6 months. Now, the reason I'm saying 6 months, which is a really long time period, is because it should only last 20 days. But knowing how the politics and the geopolitics complicate things and knowing how a lot of the metals people are still in denial and reading in between the lines of the UBS report and thinking that maybe they just don't want it to be that bad. I say to myself, isn't this what we said about London about the LBMA that, you know, there's there's plenty of silver. They just have to get it. Well, yeah, there's plenty of silver. Kobe just has to get it. So these things seem to be constantly marketed to us as transitory short-term problems or uh a policy confusion and not structural, but they end up manifesting in much higher prices. So if we were to go above 95, if we were to if we were to approach 95, let's put it that way. If we were to approach 95, that would probably be as a result of some geopolitical mishap with tariffs or section 301. You want to just people want to look up the expression section 301 trade review. That's the that's the fundamental aspect of what's driving the market right now. And you'll find out that if we break off our trading relationship with China even more, then you'll find out that all the silver that we have that's theirs, we can't have it anymore. And so that'll deplete our supply even more anyway. So that's it. That's that's so the first question. The answer to the first question is it could it could you want to you want to put a you want to put a thumbtack or you want to put a pin in your calendar for the 15th because that's when G and Trump are done and when G and Trump are done that could be a big signpost for this to clear up. If it doesn't clear up by the 15th then it could be anywhere from a month three months for this to clear up. That's what I think. Now what your second question?

[00:17:23]Your second question was was what was your second question?

[00:17:27]>> Well, more or less is that or do we need a new fundamental development to take us through that at $95?

[00:17:37]>> Right. All right. So, I know what I want to happen and I know what I think could happen, but I'd be shocked if it happens. The market the market, what would get us above 95?

[00:17:48]I mean, a geopolitical event that we don't see coming will get us above 95. I think we see this coming. I mean, even though we're just talking about it for the first time now, I think the market sees it coming. Uh, and as a result of that, I don't think that this would be an event to get us above 95. This would be more of an event that gets squashed ahead of time because people are ready for it ready for it to come. So, but I that said I would not be surprised if this market uh again outpaced people's patience and China's demand if it spread outside of China to India and the Middle East uh would get us going higher. So, so, but to answer your question more directly, I don't think there's enough in this market to get it above 95, but I think there's enough in this market to get it up to 90 and then to start trading in a higher range between 85 and 90 and and then from there we can follow your plan, which is more like we can work our way up and then work our way through and then we have a nice what's the expression you called it? You we have a nice cup formation.

[00:18:55]>> Yeah.

[00:18:55]>> So, yeah. I mean the measured move concept. So I would like you know I mean could we have a quick move from here to 88? That's my first level. Yes. And then could we have a slow move between 85 and 95? Yes. Uh I don't think this this should get this shouldn't get this situation should not get us above $95.

[00:19:16]How's that? I'll just put it in black and white. This situation should not get us above $95. But the silver market has been mismanaged so much over the last two years that I would not be surprised if it made a run. Like look at what happened today. It was down 2 and a half 3%. And now it's up 20 cents, up 50 cents. I think somebody's in denial for silvering. I almost feel I almost feel like China and the other Gulf cooperative states, the uh the Middle East cooperative states are are starting to get ready to squeeze us a little bit.

[00:19:48]I think we might get squeezed. That's that's there there's your headline. It's not really a good head. It's not it's not an honest genuine headline, but you we could be getting a little bit of we are actually this is a genuine headline.

[00:19:59]This is we're in a little bit of a venue squeeze now. Coax is running out and China keeps pulling it. That's what I think. So I'd like to see your cup formation happen.

[00:20:10]>> Yeah. I would say there's two technical technical insights that I have. The first would be 95 is really significant resistance. Like when you see that you you you might just look at a daily chart, but if you look at a weekly and then a monthly, you could see 95. That's really significant resistance. That's the key level moving forward. The second thing is it's to me looking at the way the chart's setting up, it's only a matter of time. This thing will it's going to make a cup when it breaks 95.

[00:20:36]So whether it happens in, you know, seven months or two months, it is making a cup. And so what that means is >> I see it on the weekly. I see what you're saying.

[00:20:46]>> Yeah. What that means is that what that means is whenever it breaks 95 on all those time frames, look out. So everyone's looking >> it is. Yeah. I mean, if you're if you're on the supply side or you're a bear, >> this is kind of scary because yes, it could certainly consolidate for several months here below 95, >> but you know, it's pretty it's pretty dangerous to fight against what could happen if it breaks 95, >> right? Well, well, just to go with the measured move concept, I'm pull I have a weekly chart pulled up. Uh there there there are two aspects of of of what you're describing. I'm going to visually describe it. There's a weekly chart.

[00:21:22]Maybe you'll pull one up. And the weekly chart shows a breakdown from February 23rd.

[00:21:29]Actually, technically March 2nd is when the market started to break down from 95. And it was a very steep disorderly breakdown followed by an orderly rally.

[00:21:43]So if your cup I've been told by technicians that if you're creating a cup or or or or a depth equals distance type of thing, which you and I both look at, if you have a disorderly move lower followed by an orderly move higher, then if we get above 95, you should expect a disorderly move higher. So from 95 I'm going to put I'm going to put 94 only because I have that 94 down to 65.

[00:22:13]So 95 down to 65 that's $30. So we get above 95, we'd go to 125. Not a not a problem. I mean that's that's how this market has been behaving for the last six months. And then when you're back to the high, if you consolidate from there for a couple months or three months, that's a cup and handle, >> right? Yeah, I know. It's that is pretty That's right. We're we're looking at we're looking at a new cup and handle forming here. So, we go back.

[00:22:42]>> So, yeah. So, to me, like I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but you know, all the people who've been super bullish, yeah, I've, you know, I' I've been really, really skeptical of that and still am. However, you get above 95 in silver, you're setting up a cup that could turn into a cup and handle and then you have another what? Then you have a measured move of like 180, >> right? Cup and handle.

[00:23:05]>> So basically your cup and then you break above 95 and then you do a nice pull back and there's your handle, >> right? And then and then you're off to the races. Yeah, that's that'd be >> now maybe the whole thing takes 18 months or two years to play out, but what I'm saying is here and now this this is setup is getting increasingly bullish even though we could be pinned down below 9095 for a, you know, a while for the time being, >> right? We'll just let the numbers tell us what to do. You know, when we get there, then we know what to do. I mean, I'm long now looking for 88.

[00:23:41]So we'll see where that we'll see where that gets us. So that's it. That's that's the fundamentals of it and that's the China. So China is the problem again. Whether they're directly the problem or they're causing us a problem with the venue problem is it you got the X Trump meeting coming up. You have your levels. Your levels are what mine >> same levels as you. We have 88 90 93 >> right? And 95. Right. Exactly. So those are those are the levels. And for me on the downside, my my my short-term momentum, which is the daily momentum, it's it's good for a week to two weeks, only gets negated if we settle below below uh we didn't settle below it today. What was the low today? Do you know >> the low today in spot? I can look it up.

[00:24:22]8553.

[00:24:24]>> Okay. So, for me to be for me, that's the low in spot >> today. Yes.

[00:24:34]Or maybe wait, am I looking at a weekly?

[00:24:36]No, that's a daily. Yeah, silver spot on the CME. The low was or wait, today >> maybe that's not right. Maybe that's not right.

[00:24:45]>> No, it's not right.

[00:24:46]>> The low the low today is uh on spot it's 8305, right?

[00:24:54]>> Yeah. This a bad a bad data feed.

[00:24:57]>> So, >> I think Yeah, you're right. You're right. Yeah.

[00:25:00]>> Right. 8305 and change. So for me, I have one level that that is essentially like a trailing stop and it's tied to my Ballinger bands and that number is 8210.

[00:25:14]Had we traded 8210 or below today, that would negate the short-term momentum.

[00:25:20]Tomorrow, that number goes up to 8290.

[00:25:24]So it's going to go up about 75 cents a day. So that'll give you an idea of what what unignites our momentum for me. I mean, I'm not a technician, but I've been trading a lot of that that stuff recently because silver's been a very good technical market, as I'm sure you know.

[00:25:40]>> Yes, we >> Yeah, I know. I know we want to keep this short today, but you want to do like five or seven minutes on gold?

[00:25:47]>> Well, I do, but do we want to talk about inflation for a second as well?

[00:25:52]>> I just want to throw something out there. Is that okay?

[00:25:54]>> Go ahead. Go ahead.

[00:25:55]>> Let me throw something out there. Today, today inflation came out a little bit hot, right? You and I discussed that off the air. What a what a what a shock. I guess we're all shocked about that, >> right?

[00:26:05]>> Playing gaming hot. What a shock, >> right? And uh with core inflation at 3.8%. And there's nothing that's really going to stop this from from going to four or four and a half%.

[00:26:17]People that are looking at that thinking, you know, look, either we're going to have stagflation or we're going to have inflation. And so if you're the Fed, you would prefer inflation.

[00:26:29]There are two things in the market right now. They're not even in the market, but they're in the they're in the world right now that are happening. The the FIFA World Cup is coming to the US, and that will be a massive inflationary drive for the economy. The economy is going to do well from it. It's it's put it this way, it's it's such a big pull that I would be willing to say that I don't think the Fed cuts for the next three, four months. So, because that's how big of a pull it is. That's the first thing. And the second thing is we have our 250 year anniversary semiquincentennial I think is is how you say it. I've been corrected on that a couple times. That's also going to be inflationary. You know I you know the story the anecdote the story that I tell is that the bsentennial in 1976 when I was a kid was uh a very inflationary event. It was it was the year before that we started the second wave of inflation in 77.

[00:27:32]And so I believe that this this semiquincentennial celebration and the FIFA Cup will reignite inflation. I think inflation could go as high as 5% over the next over the next year. So I think inflation is here to stay. It's not going away.

[00:27:49]And I think Pal knows that. and whoever comes after him does it as well. But I just wanted to mention that that part about inflation before we moved on to gold.

[00:27:58]>> Okay. I guess a quick followup would be and again I know we can't predict this but you know because last time you know you had inflation you know was going up the Fed was hiking and of course it was you bearish for gold and precious metals but maybe this time will be you I'm not trying to be the always bullish guy but maybe this time will be different because they can't hike the way they did in that last cycle. the economy's too weak and if you're looking at I'm not basing everything on technicals but you know we we've never talked about the food stuffs and those comm I mean I've seen the charts with bases on some of those markets and like I mean holy crap like you can just look at those charts look at what's going on with copper now silver is strengthening you know one week people are talking about oh it's going to retest it could go to 55 60 maybe you know and now we're talking about 90 and 95 and again copper's broken you know, successfully retested its major breakout. You look at these charts, they're telling you the risk is much, much higher over the next 12 months. So, I guess what I'm saying is that aligns with what you're saying with the CPI, >> right? Right. I agree. I agree. I think I think the what you've described is in the most recent CPI report which came out today what you what you just described is that over the last 6 months to a year the inflation that we've had in the market has been restricted to energy related as energy rallies the inflation's rallying but now it's spreading out. You've got auto insurance is going up is starting to go up again.

[00:29:30]You've got health insurance that's going up again. You've got jet fuel which means the cost of travel is going up.

[00:29:39]You've got OE OE owners equivalent rent that's going up. So what's happening now is although I don't think inflation is going to spike, you know, I do believe it's it's spread out. It's become more well-rounded and it's staying in the market on a more permanent basis. So when when you look at it that way, it supports the case for higher food stuffs and it supports the case for higher silver. Now your comment about the Fed not being able to hike, you know, that's funny because there in a sense if the Fed does hike, maybe the maybe maybe the Fed the Fed may not the Fed may want to cut and cannot, but they do not want to hike. That would be bad. If they if they hike that would probably kill the credit market is very vulnerable right now. And if you kill the credit market in the stock in the stock part of the world, you're going to be killing the economy.

[00:30:36]And what'll happen is they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. If they if they hike rates, if they hike rates, they'll squash inflation, but people will get fired. If they don't hike rates, they'll let inflation run and people won't get fired, at least not get fired as fast.

[00:30:49]So I think given the choice between stagflation and inflation, the Fed always goes with inflation.

[00:30:55]>> And then again, that aligns with the technicals that we're seeing and all these commodities. And >> that's right.

[00:31:02]>> Okay. And then maybe that's a good segue where now gold's actually the lagard.

[00:31:06]>> Yeah. Gold's the lagard, right?

[00:31:08]>> Gold's lag.

[00:31:08]>> Gold's not a commodity. Gold's money.

[00:31:10]The commodities are going up. Gold is not. That's right. That's right. So you got silver and you got oil going up which are basically two energies now and you've got gold going nowhere and you got platinum straddleman area to move. You got copper leading the charge >> and you've got food, >> right? The food stuffs. So sorry. Yeah.

[00:31:32]Sorry to cut you off. Let's talk about gold and then we can wrap this puppy up.

[00:31:36]>> Sure.

[00:31:38]So at least you know my view on gold has been it's following the path of the similar corrections after the two major breakouts. You have the ma other two major breakouts 1972 2005. The first big cor the first big corrections for those two were 19 1973 2006.

[00:31:59]Each of those corrections lasted five months. You talked about them at the beginning and gold is following that path. It's following that template. And that template tells us that we're probably about five weeks or 6 weeks away from a bottom in terms of time. And in terms of terms of price, yes, gold could go back down here. I'm looking at the chart. Gold could go back down here on futures and go to I know 4350 maybe around that area or maybe even lower than a little bit lower than that. But there's that there's that analysis. But then you have to think, well, look at silver. I mean, silver's pretty strong. And given the move in silver, are we really going to see gold come all the way back down to its low?

[00:32:43]>> No. Right. I mean, you you might actually start seeing people sell gold to buy silver in that whole silver gold spread trade that I talk about a lot.

[00:32:51]But we're not going to see gold get hammered to the point where people are going to be selling gold to to the selling gold to buy oil trade. That trade's about to blow up. That trades, that trade's pretty much almost done.

[00:33:04]The idea, I mean, you got oil was up yesterday and gold was up yesterday and silver was up yesterday. Now you got the dollar is stronger today with oil up and gold's down, but it's down $22. I mean, oil's up $3.83, Jordan. Like at the beginning of this whole war thing, that was good for a $100 sell off in gold. Now gold's down 20 bucks. So that whole that whole week is is going away.

[00:33:35]>> Just to cut in, I mean, we talked about this I think one or two episodes ago where you said at the beginning of these oil crisis crises, >> sell sell gold, buy oil, but then in three months basically you want to buy gold. And so are we are we three month three months from that? I think we're about three months or closing.

[00:33:58]>> I think we're in there. I think we're in the >> and >> I mean >> and so here we are now the outlook is better for precious metals >> right it's the the expression I think back then was that was from Michael Hartnett he said he said he said rent trade oil own gold and that's what we said two or three months ago and now here we are two or three months into it and you trade oil and you own gold so it looks like it's time to start owning gold again or put it this way if you're bullish gold buy silver but don't bearish gold. That's that's just my feel for it right now. What levels do you have for gold before we go?

[00:34:37]>> Well, I think you know looking at Well, let me bring up let me look at the let me look at the spot.

[00:34:41]>> I only have one that I mean I have two that are echoes of the silver uh of silver like so basically that that high we had from this trading range 48.90 >> right? I think I think yeah that's the first key resistance and then for me the second one would be I'm eyeballing it here uh about 50/50 maybe a little bit higher I I think if you're able to take out if you can get to 5100 you've taken out most of the significant resistance so basically we're looking at 4870 is that what you said up to you know 5070 you kind of have that there's there's a range right there and to That's basically the resistance moving forward.

[00:35:27]>> I have a chart up now. I'll throw them I'll throw the numbers at you. It's it's just trying to line up with what you said. 48.90 is that high that we came off of pretty aggressively and then the whole thing started to break down on March 18th and that was essentially 5,000. Now, that's not your level. That's the bottom of a trading range. So, you don't think that's going to be a big of a bit of a problem when we get in there? We'll get in there and then we'll get into this trading range above the wicks and that's 5075.

[00:35:58]>> So >> yeah, my my point would be if you can take out if you can take out that level, get up to in the 5100s, then you're you're on your way.

[00:36:08]>> Right. Right. Right. So, you don't see you don't see like a a big uh a big resistance coming from that that March high, you know, March 2nd where >> if I'm looking at the if I pull up the weekly here, the resistance, if I recall, is it's actually right around 5,000 on the weekly.

[00:36:33]>> It is. That's the weekly looks obvious on the weekly. you have about 48 4830 to 5,000. So, but looking at the weekly, so yeah, 4830 4870 >> a weekly close, let's just say 4,900.

[00:36:48]Like, if you could make a weekly close at 4,900, that gives you a sense that okay, gold is probably on its way. It only has a little bit more resistance to get back to the high, >> right? Okay. All right. Good. I'm with you on that. So, I mean, that's it. I mean, basically, we got we got Trump and G. Here's our here's our next potential signpost and that'll be that'll be on the 15th and that could be that could be very bearish for silver. All right. It could be very bearish for silver. But we have our levels and we're going to stick with those.

[00:37:20]Gold we think is just turning a corner, but this is a silver le market right now. In fact, if you're bullish gold, you should buy silver. And if you're bullish silver, you should buy twice as much silver. That's basically it sounds a little bit cheesy, but Not to interrupt you again, but you because I just I just pulled it up while you were talking because the miners they tend to fall like if you see more strength in silver than gold, that tends to be better for the miners. And if you look at a GDX against gold, I mean that that's showing I'm not going to say the miners are crushing gold right now, but they're clearly doing better than gold.

[00:37:55]They're performing better than gold. So we might get at some point we might get an even stronger signal from silver or the miners before gold breaks that resistance that I guess that technically that would be what I'm looking for.

[00:38:09]Right. Right. It's it's it does seem to think that you know everyone looks at gold and then silver is a high beta version of gold and the miners are a higher beta version of gold and so when silver and the miners move together they tend to outperform gold in lock step. So yeah that's that's a good point. So yeah, so maybe if you're bullish gold by miners, if you're bullish miners, buy silver. If you're bullish silver by miners, that's probably that's probably a good way to go, >> right? So, anything else we have to touch on?

[00:38:39]>> I think we I think we covered it. I think we gave people some new information here to chew on with the whole China thing, your and your levels.

[00:38:48]I think this is I think this is good.

[00:38:50]It's not at the end of the month, but we got another one coming up. We'll be doing that in two weeks. I'll be look forward I look forward to that.

[00:38:55]>> Me, too. Okay, Vince, before I let you go, please tell our listeners uh about your Substack and how they can subscribe.

[00:39:02]>> Sure. I have a Substack. It's in the top 15 financial substacks. It's the VBL Goldfix. So, Goldfix is is the site and we cover gold. We cover precious metals. We cover geopolitics and we cover energy as well and macroeconomics with a with a dabbling in miners and stocks as well.

[00:39:24]come on over there and you can sign up for free or you can sign up for to be a paying member. We would like love to have you or you can find me on Twitter under VBL's Ghost.

[00:39:34]>> All righty, Vince. Thanks so much as always and I look forward to doing this next month as things potentially get more exciting.

[00:39:43]>> Yep. Thanks for having me, Jordan.

[00:39:45]>> Thank you for tuning in to the Daily Gold podcast. For more interviews, editorials, and analysis, log on to the daily.com.

[00:39:54]And for premium coverage of precious metals and the best junior mining companies, visit the daily.com/premium.