Bitcoin & Altcoins: The Road Ahead

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, welcome back to CryptoCash. Thanks again for joining me here. I hope you're having a phenomenal weekend. Uh we're going to take a look at some lower time frame uh divergences here or just more importantly areas we want to pay attention to with our London low and our Asian high. Uh we're also going to talk about our 4-hour convergence here. Essentially, where we're squeezing between some moving averages there, shifting that momentum, but the macro structure is still mostly intact minus some larger time moving averages. So, we're going to pay attention to all those things here today and obviously double-check some back-end liquidation data on specific altcoins that you tend to favor and I do too cuz they're just kind of easier to trade based on specific outliers that we like to look for. So, we'll pay attention to that as well. Make sure you stick around and take a closer look.

[00:00:43]All right, folks. Before we jump in the back-end data, just a friendly reminder to please hit that like button. Maybe even comment below. Deeply appreciate you doing that. Really helps grow the channel and uh you did a great job yesterday. Keep up the good work. And I'll do the same. Now, what we're going to do here is just quickly touch on lower time frame uh not divergences, but basically just if you want to if you can see here on charts 80,000 point six. Basically, 80,600 is essentially that previous uh range high, right? So, it's often common for those levels to get swept before the price turns around. This being a weekend, it would make perfect sense to see 80.6 to 81k cuz there's a lot of liquidation above the price in that range, right? So, I did post that actually let's find it here on social media a little bit easier to uh identify. We can see uh some late shorts essentially between 81 and 83,000, but more specifically when we do look at the uh what is it? This is the 48-hour time frame here. There's a big chunk between basically 80.6 and 81,000. So, that's probably likely to going to get hit here just a moment. Uh obviously, something we want to pay attention to. So, that is a present. That's definitely there. We also want to understand here that delta spot is a little bit higher uh than than, you know, the other way around, right? It's not It's not in the red.

[00:01:49]It's in the green. Basically, just telling us that we have more money effectively flowing into spot in the last 24 hours. That usually shows some sustainability in the $80,000 range, so uh I think it's going to be a little bit of effort on the Bitcoin's behalf or maybe the market makers behalf to push the price action lower.

[00:02:05]Basically just tells us that there's more interest in this range here than ever before. So, when we look at this let's find the right chart here. We saw a pretty big buy here buy order. This is a 10 million plus buy order at that 80,000 $500 mark. Now, if you saw my post from earlier, you'll know why that is cuz it was this guy right here. Take a look. This is that big sell order there essentially at 80.5k. So, that that just got filled. That's why we see a large buy order essentially you know when you're selling you're buying, right? So, in that concept here, that gives us the indication that we're in pretty good shape here to to probably see a slightly larger upside. And what I mean by larger is just 80.6 to 81,000.

[00:02:45]It's a very logical area to to to to kind of assume will happen, right? Just based on the way things are moving. But when we look at the lower time frames here on the 4-hour time frame, we do have a bit of an overextension. This isn't massive.

[00:02:56]Honestly, you can probably see a little bit better on the lower time frames. So, we saw we hit a nine on TD sequential here. And now we're kind of pushing sideways and just broke through that local barrier, okay? So, that local resistance here is something to kind of pay close attention to.

[00:03:08]If we can hold above this 80.5k 80.4k range today, then there's a good chance that we might actually continue a bit higher. Once more, I'm expecting just a quick sweep sweep of this 81,000 range to to hit that you know Asia Asia high range and then back down, but let's go ahead and double check see if there's anything else kind of telling you anything else there. Uh when we look at open interest, we want to recognize that open interest is at 23%. It's basically lower than it was yesterday, so this does tell us that whales are not super active right now, which does give me some apprehension want to take a long because you know obviously it's a weekend whales are generally unactive, but for the most part it's dissipating it's pulling back. It was the same thing yesterday too. It was pretty low overall. And and true retail longs are increasing, right? Or at least they were from the day before. So, when we have a large percentile, large delta for true retail longs, that tells us that the price right now is probably moving based on more retail versus versus whales, right? So, with these lower positions kind of taking control, it's just a matter of time before the whales will recognize that. In fact, we can see that reflected here with our whale versus retail. We can see retail is pretty much just very heavy in this range here ever since we entered in the 80K range. All right, so whales are just kind of letting people accumulate at 80,000. Generally speaking, they become more active and they'll probably push the price action down. That's kind of my guess.

[00:04:29]We're also in a support range to keep in mind 79 to 81,000 kind of just that generic range that we're probably going to be within for a short while here until the price breaks above or below.

[00:04:39]That's what I'm expecting 81,000 to hold as a resistance cuz that was a previous range low. It hasn't been tested really much as a new new range high, okay? So, 81,000 open interest heavy there, that tells me we're in in pretty good shape to see 81K probably the local resistance. Furthermore, liquidation delta is at break even. This tells us we're in a transition. Generally speaking, when this hits a zero, the price could go either direction, but for the most part, we we derived from the upside. selling pressure on into this support range. If this support doesn't hold, obviously we go lower, but generally speaking, that's one of those areas we want to kind of pay attention to.

[00:05:12]That in combination with liquidation being very high to the downside between 77 and 79K, that is a pretty telling indication there. Now, I know I sent out a 3-day time frame post earlier today asking if 81 to 83,000 would would would be hit. Do you think that's going to happen? Truth is, that's a lower time frame. This is a little bit more on the macro. This is a full week's worth liquidation. Most For the most part, we see these trends happen, you know, multiple days in a row, you know, five to seven days often. So, with us just pulling back, we're only about two or three days into this continuation lower.

[00:05:44]I think we got one more leg down before the price bottoms out in the 77, maybe 78 K range. Okay, so that's kind of my consideration there for a long versus short on Bitcoin. Uh but I'd love to hear your thoughts, you know, what are you thinking? I mean, honestly, this ascending trend still gives me pause to want to short based on the fact that we're still uh creating higher highs and higher lows, right? Till that significantly shifts, we want to presume it's going to continue. But, we do want to also understand this has been moving for almost a full what, month and a half now, right? So, ever since what, May 29th or something, we hit our bottom.

[00:06:14]Sorry, March 29th, we hit the bottom and the price pushed all the way up there.

[00:06:18]We got to see some kind of recourse, some kind of retracement between now and then. Uh either way, it's not like it's a guarantee per se, but it is certainly a larger statistical favorability we we continue lower uh just based on the way the market's moving right now. Okay. So, those are my thoughts. Again, what are yours? Want you to comment below. Love to hear it. Let's take a look at some altcoins next.

[00:06:35]All right, folks, quick look here at Ethereum. We're just going to go ahead and start with a side-by-side comparison with Bitcoin and just kind of recognizing the correlation and dissimilarities there. In other words, Bitcoin's essentially creating higher lows in a lot of ways here. Looks like it wants to continue higher with Ethereum pushing up really hard and then kind of going sideways. Now, alts got a pretty big pump yesterday, so that is part of it there, but the fact that it hasn't broken out or continued higher gives me pause to want to take a long.

[00:07:01]Keep in mind though, this is looking pretty solid in this in this the you know, the bullish rectangle type of pattern we're we're seeing here. If Bitcoin pushes towards 81,000, which is expected, I think a little bit more of a pump here for ETH is uh also expected.

[00:07:14]So, just be mindful that very much could be the the the case. When we look at uh open interest though, there's a lot of resistance at the 2350 range. Keep in mind, um I've traded that range before. We actually shorted at 2350 uh or just a little bit above that. So, this is a one of those areas that's contested. In other words, we have a lot of open interest there. There's also a heavy amount of liquidation delta to the downside.

[00:07:36]Basically telling us that shorts are in control, right? So, you generally don't want to try to short uh to take a long against that, but the truth is if that stays overextended for too much longer, we could actually see a short squeeze.

[00:07:46]Uh, furthermore, too, we look at, um, you know, liquidation. There's still more left to the downside. 2250 is still kind of my target range in my mind of where ETH should go. That's only impression Bitcoin hits 77 to, you know, 78k though, right? If Bitcoin doesn't uh, essentially, you know, break below 80,000, then we're probably not going to see that. So, just kind of be mindful of that. We look at the charts here, too.

[00:08:09]Uh, just kind of clarify we got our point of control right now at this point. So, we're a lot of things are kind of squeezing and compressing here.

[00:08:14]There's reasons why we're seeing consolidation here. But, short-term upside makes more sense with Bitcoin.

[00:08:20]Uh, probably likely to move up a little bit higher. And then the inverse as well, of course, Bitcoin drops its bottom. I think ETH will run. It'll run to 2250 to test that lower range support, kind of that area we've seen the most amount of, uh, most amount of volume, okay? So, that's kind of my thoughts there. What are yours? Comment below.

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[00:08:43]All right, folks, quick look at Solana.

[00:08:45]Just double-checking some important stuff. Um, it's going to sound like I'm bearish, but I'm really not on Solana.

[00:08:50]Uh, it's mostly just a simple fact that there's CME gaps below the price. Uh, two of them effectively. We got 9230 is essentially the current price for the closure on CME futures, which basically puts us at a pullback here to fill that level. But, furthermore, too, there's also another gap between 90 and 9125.

[00:09:09]That's when the there was a a break yesterday, of course, cuz I don't know if you know, but CME futures does have a break in the afternoons, and the price gapped up between there. So, we got two gaps, and on top of that, we've also got a fair value gap here. Uh, pretty substantial amount there. We're also seeing a double overextension here, where we had a 9 on TDS, and we're soon to hit another 9. So, the likelihood of continuation higher is lower based on the statistical, you know, fact of the matter is here. We've been pushing up with little retracement. Um, you know, and it has to pull back at some point.

[00:09:38]So, the logical conclusion is to retest our previous range high, right? We got $90 here as that significant area of retracement. So, the likelihood of seeing 90 is quite high. Once again, that's based on the premise that Bitcoin pulls back, okay? If Bitcoin doesn't pull back, then you couldn't you shouldn't expect that from Solana. Same thing here as well. We look at the side by side, it's obviously outperforming versus Bitcoin. So, if you're considering a short with this coin, just recognize that there's an inherent risk, right? Keep your tight your stop losses tight. In fact, we have a short position open pretty much right in this range here, and the concept is to just have a quick scalp to the downside and a tight stop loss just in case the price moves and runs cuz it could happen, right? So, that's kind of the case there. Look at this here, this difference between Ethereum and and Solana, significant liquidation delta, basically letting us know that bulls are in control and for the most part unwilling to, you know, let go of that that profit. But, the longer we stay in this range here at 92, the more likely we are to go down to hit those CME gaps. There's also no more pretty much no more liquidation to the upside. Minus just a really quick late short, maybe that might even be me right there, right? So, for the most part, at this point, I think further downside makes perfect sense.

[00:10:50]What are your thoughts? Want you to comment below. Let me know.

[00:10:52]All right, folks, quick look here at Sui, just quickly understanding the obvious pump and potential dump here. I mean, it's pulled back almost to its original breakout of roughly 102. So, the logical place to consider either a long or, you know, take profit target is this 102 range just based on that being a kind of a previous high range that's hasn't been much tested as a new low yet. When we look at the side by side here with Bitcoin, it's pretty obvious it's outperforming Bitcoin. It had what like a 7-8% pump last night, so that's pretty cool. We look at the open interest, we can recognize there's just a lot of support between 95 and 105. So, I wouldn't expect Sui to pull back super significant. It's going to require Bitcoin to stall out and pull back below 80 80k. If we see 79k range for Bitcoin, I think SUI will probably probably fill some of those those lower range gaps there. Liquidation long delta is tapering off, which is which is good for sustainability here.

[00:11:48]Not too over-leveraged, and we can kind of see we're right in the middle of liquidation. So, truth is it could go either way, but we want to presume it's going to go up based on the simple fact that it broke its resistance, and you know, the market's kind of behaving sporadically right now.

[00:12:04]Once more though, it doesn't make a ton of sense to take a trade on a weekend a long on SUI this weekend. Mostly just based on the simple fact that it's not really I mean, it's it's already moved, right? The likelihood of it moving up higher from here is is lower. So, once more, as per usual, my my my rule of thumb for SUI is to kind of just wait it out and find the best opportunity. Wait for that that potential backtest first before considering a long. And if you're in a short right now, just put on turn on a trailing stop loss and let it let it drop. There's a good chance we do pull back here, but once more, if Bitcoin were to pump to to 81,000, which is still a possibility, we might see another leg up here for SUI. Those are my thoughts though. What are yours? Let me know.

[00:12:45]All right, folks, quick look here at XRP. Just quickly double-checking some of our criteria from yesterday. Talking about the potential for the price to move higher and reject out likely in the 145 range. So far, we haven't seen that yet. So, just be mindful. 145 is that logical area of resistance here based on just pretty obvious consistency there.

[00:13:04]Every time the price enters that range, it rejects out. Okay? So, just know 145 is a close approximate for a resistance.

[00:13:11]If we look at the side-by-side though, XRP certainly outperformed Bitcoin yesterday. But keep in mind, most altcoins did too. And now we have this algorithmic selling activity here, which once again, market makers really love to I don't want to use the word manipulate, but they have a tendency of trading this coin systematically, right? So, we're just seeing that natural pullback here.

[00:13:30]Uh where's it going to go? Where's it going to stop? Let's Let's try to see if we can find out, right? So, take a look at the back-end data. 140 is that area of support, so is 137 for open interest.

[00:13:39]Liquidation delta is still in the red even though we saw that pump. Uh there's also a lot of liquidation on the downside, too. So, the truth is this information doesn't give us a ton of uh you know, a ton of direction potential here. What I'm seeing though right now is this significant pullback followed by or you know, a significant pump followed by a significant pullback. It's a really common occurrence with this coin, just up and down, right? We see it happen time and time again. So, for the most part, we can presume there's going to the price is going to pull back if Bitcoin does. And if the inverse occurs, Bitcoin pumps, we'll probably see a little bit of a recovery here for XRP.

[00:14:12]But, I'm leaning more towards the price going down on the short term, um or at least within the next 48 hours based on the fact that I feel Bitcoin will probably do the same, okay? We might see 81,000 for Bitcoin, and if that happens, then we may also see 145 for XRP. But, my consideration right now is that, you know, if if XRP uh you know, let's say Bitcoin goes up and XRP goes sideways, that's an indication of of wanting to sell because the likelihood of Bitcoin going tremendously higher this weekend is low, and if XRP is underperforming, there's a good chance it'll significantly underperform when Bitcoin does, too, right? So, we're not even though we saw that pump yesterday, I wouldn't buy into it. It doesn't make a ton of sense to um to want to kind of FOMO in right now, especially on a weekend. We You should know better, right? Anyways, at least that's that's what I teach my community.

[00:14:57]If you want to learn more and become a better trader, cryptocash.tech is a site linked down below. Look forward to seeing you in the next one. Have a great rest of your day. Take care.